Ed Yourdon...What are your thoughts? I do respect your opinion.

greenspun.com : LUSENET : TimeBomb 2000 (Y2000) : One Thread

Thank You for you response.

-- Lurker (Lurker@lurking.com), January 01, 2000

Answers

Lurker,

Else on today's list of threads, I posted a notice about my initial (Jan 1,2000) assessment of Y2K

FWIW, that was before I heard about the widespread problems in Gambia, and a few other places. I think we'll see a few more incidents tomorrow (Sun, Jan 2nd), but Monday will be a far more interesting day...

Ed

-- Ed Yourdon (ed@yourdon.com), January 01, 2000.


Look Here

-- Uncle Bob (UNCLB0B@AOL.COM), January 01, 2000.

Geez...what's going on here...try this URL.

http://hv.greenspun.com/bboard/q-and-a-fetch-msg.tcl?msg_id=002B81

No links seem to be working now...but, its not related to Y2K.

-- Uncle Bob (UNCLB0B@AOL.COM), January 01, 2000.


I think he'll say what I said in the following post of mine earlier today:

Yes embeds are "non-issue" BUT IT will have its real rollover test TONIGHT here's why

--------EXERPTS BELOW---------

But with respect to IT/database systems etc. The real test for them will be TONIGHT when the first day of overnight processing happens. You see if you done any programming you know that must of the bugs occur at what are known as boundaries. Now 1/1/2000 is a boundary. It is a boundary when you rollover and it remains a boundary until you use it. WE HAVE NOT FINISHED THE FIRST DAY SO THE BOUNDARY IS STILL LIVE AS IT HAS NOT BEEN CROSSED YET. IT will use it very heavily tonight when they process today's transactions. You yesterday night the processed transactions that were checking dates for work between 30.12.99 and 31.12.99. Today they will be processing dates for work done between 31.12.99 and 01.01.00 and will use new date seriously for the first time.

Boundaries cause errors just prior to the boundary, at the boundary and just after the boundary. That is the rule of programming.

So you can expect the potential for the most errors at the following times (amongst other times) for IT systems:

Begining of first month before boundary. Begining of first payroll (etc.) before boundary. Begining of first week before boundary. Beginign of first day before boundary. After boundary has crossed. Begining of first day,month,week,payroll etc. after boundary End of First day after boundary End of First week after boundary End of First payroll after boundary End of First month after boundary End of First quarter after boundary End of First year after boundary.

The vast majority of potential errors come where the vast majority of the date calculations can occur. These occur in the After periods when we reach the End of xxx time.

So hang on folks the ride in IT BEGINS TONIGHT.

-- Interested Spectator (is@the_ring.side), January 01, 2000.


Uncle Bob,

Check your HTML......in your last attempt you left out the closing quotes inside the 'greater than' sign.

-- (_@_._), January 01, 2000.



Lane Core expressed it very well at:

Link

-- G (balzer@lanset.com), January 01, 2000.


Spectator,

Good analysis. I expressed same idea in a couple of places. Most folks were convinced (by the media?) that the biggest event was at midnight 12/31/99. That stupid Y2K Movie (NBC?) last month didn't help matters any.

You are correct - it will be at interval processing time that the real bugs will show up. The problems will not be simultaneous, they will pop up like little brush fires all over the place at different times. As to the systemic nature of it - who knows what widespread damage will take place when one system corrupts its database and passes this onto another system. It all depends on the nature in which the two systems communicate.

It is a time for patience, not conclusions. Everybody thinks it's over because the clock rolled over. No ... it's just begun. Now it will be interesting to see what goes on as the spring begins to wind up.

-- Bruce (broeser@ccgnv.net), January 01, 2000.


The power, the water, the gas, the sewage did NOT go down at rollover. That was the original prediction. Are you now saying they will go down on Jan 2, 2000? Hey, I still got my preps but I'll make you a cash wager that stuff does not crash tomorrow.

-- Lars (lars@indy.net), January 01, 2000.

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