Any signs of a downturn in the housing market yet? : LUSENET : Repossession : One Thread

I'm a ex-repo victim, the lease finishes on my rented house in november and the landlord is selling the property so should I another house, I can get a mortgage now. Dont know what do do for the best.

Any comments please.


-- John Cartwright (, May 08, 2003


DO NOT under any circumstances buy another property at this time, there is a big big crash coming prices WILL fall by around 35-40% do not make the same mistake as you did last time around eh ?

-- John (, May 12, 2003.

I'm not sure I really agree with the reply you got here. If I could predict the future with that degree of certainty I'd make a small fortune.

Firstly, it will depend on WHERE you live as to whether there will be a crash and how big it will be.

I live in the South East, just outside London and have been listening to warnings of an impending crash for about 3 years now. What all these commentators conveniently forget is the law of supply and demand. In the South East there simply is not enough property to satisfy demand. In any situation where demand outstrips supply prices inevitably will go up, or at least stay the same. There is no incentive for them to decrease.

There is a lack of affordable housing in particular, and I think the problem is exacerbated by people who buy multiple properties in order to derive a rental income. I won't comment on the morality of that, but it is, I think a factor.

In short, my advice to most people is to buy UNLESS you know you will move within a couple of years. Once you have bought, mortgage payments tend to stay the same whereas rent increases. I purchased about 10 years ago and my mortgage payments are now FAR less than I would pay in rent each month. Partly this is to do with low interest of course, but partly because rent always goes up. A house is a long-term investment, and should be viewed as such - but, with my caveat above, I would give serious thought to purchasing if you can afford to do so.

-- Chris (, May 16, 2003.

Also, should have said, make sure you can afford the repayments and allow for all the expenses associated with buying/moving in !

-- Chris (, May 16, 2003.

well my friend, you may have had reports of a downturn for three years but the press doesnt lie, London is down by 15-20% in certain areas and although those with vested interests are desperately talking the market up, the plain fact is that FTB'ers are NOT first time buying, when the foundation element of the housing market runs for cover just how long to you think that houses that cost 6 or 7 times salary will remain that way huh? the crash is coming my friend and you heard it here first !! this site is going to get a lot slower with all the buy to let brigade having troubles with their mortgages !!

-- john (, May 18, 2003.

"The press doesn't lie"

If you believe that then I suggest you seek professional help. At once.

Seriously, I hear what you say, but none of this addresses the point I made about supply and demand, nor about the benefits of buying vs rental.

I stick by what I said, if you don't anticipate moving for at least 2 years then buying is almost always a better option than renting. This assumes, of course, that you can afford the repayments and are in reasonably secure employment.

-- Chris (, May 18, 2003.

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