Hurricane Michelle Public Advisory

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Hurricane Michelle Public advisory | Discussion | Strike probabilities

305 WTNT35 KNHC 04145 TCPAT5 BULLETIN

HURRICANE MICHELLE ADVISORY NUMBER 24

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL

10 AM EST SUN NOV 04 2001

...POWERFUL HURRICANE MICHELLE PASSING EAST OF THE ISLE OF YOUTH ...EXPECTED TO HIT MAINLAND CUBA LATER TODAY... A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF THE FLORIDA KEYS FROM OCEAN REEF WESTWARD TO THE DRY TORTUGAS...INCLUDING FLORIDA BAY. PREPARATIONS IN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA SHOULD BE RUSH TO COMPLETION. A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR WESTERN CUBA FOR THE PROVINCES FROM PINAR DEL RIO EASTWARD TO CIEGO DE AVILA...INCLUDING THE ISLE OF YOUTH. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE EAST COAST OF FLORIDA FROM JUPITER INLET SOUTHWARD TO OCEAN REEF AND ALONG THE WEST COAST OF FLORIDA SOUTH OF BONITA BEACH. AT 10 AM EST...1500 UTC THE GOVERNMENT OF THE BAHAMAS HAS REPLACED THE HURRICANE WATCH WITH A HURRICANE WARNING FOR THE NORTHWESTERN AND CENTRAL BAHAMAS. THIS INCLUDES GRAND BAHAMA...THE ABACOS...THE BERRY ISLANDS... BIMINI...ANDROS...NEW PROVIDENCE...ELEUTHERA...CAT ISLAND...EXUMAS...SAN SALVADOR...RUM CAY AND LONG ISLAND. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE CAYMAN ISLANDS. AT 10 AM EST...1500Z...THE EYE OF HURRICANE MICHELLE WAS LOCATED BY A RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT AND RADAR FROM CUBA NEAR LATITUDE 21.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 82.1 WEST OR ABOUT 140 MILES...230 KM...SOUTH OF HAVANA AND ABOUT 30 MILES...50 KM...EAST-SOUTHEAST OF THE ISLE OF YOUTH CUBA.

MICHELLE IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST NEAR 12 MPH...19 KM/HR. ON THIS TRACK...THE CORE OF DANGEROUS HURRICANE MICHELLE SHOULD MAKE LANDFALL ON THE SOUTH COAST OF CUBA NEAR THE ZAPATA PENINSULA LATER TODAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 135 MPH...215 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY ARE POSSIBLE BEFORE LANDFALL. STRONG WINDS ARE SPREADING OVER THE ISLE OF YOUTH AND NEARBY CAYO LARGO RECENTLY REPORTED WINDS OF 60 MPH...96 KM/HR AND WAVES OF 12 TO 15 FEET...4-5 METERS. SOMBRERO KEY IN THE FLORIDA KEYS REPORTED GUSTS TO 50 MPH...80 KM/HR. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 45 MILES... 75 KM... FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 160 MILES...260 KM. LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY A NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER PLANE WAS 950 MB...28.05 INCHES.

RAINBANDS ARE AFFECTING PORTIONS OF CUBA...THE CAYMAN ISLANDS...AND JAMAICA. RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 10 TO 20 INCHES...250 TO 500 MILLIMETERS...CAN BE EXPECTED NEAR THE PATH OF MICHELLE AS IT CROSSES CUBA. OUTER RAINBANDS ARE ALSO SPREADING ACROSS THE FLORIDA STRAITS AND THE FLORIDA KEYS AND ARE MOVING TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST FLORIDA COAST.

A STORM SURGE OF NEAR 20 FEET...OR 6 METERS...IS POSSIBLE NEAR AND TO THE EAST OF WHERE THE EYE MAKES LANDFALL ON THE SOUTH COAST OF CUBA. A STORM SURGE OF 2 TO 3 FEET ABOVE NORMAL ALONG WITH BATTERING WAVES IS EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE ATLANTIC COAST OF THE FLORIDA KEYS. REPEATING THE 10 AM EST POSITION...21.3 N... 82.1 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...NORTHEAST NEAR 12 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...135 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 950 MB. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 1 PM EST FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 4 PM EST.

FORECASTER AVILA

-- Swissrose (cellier3@mindspring.com), November 04, 2001


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