I don't have an article to post. Just wanted to point out the abrupt 180 degree turn in the span of a summer. Remember how serious the energy shortage was for California? Remember all the blackouts that were predicted for the summer? Remember the gas stations having to order the number 3 in case gas reached $3.00 per gallon? Remember how we relied on all of these EXPERTS for there advice?

Please note that CA consumers and taxpayers will have to pay for that energy boondoggle for YEARS. Now oil is cheap because we're entering a recession YET retail stocks surged today as if there is going to be some kind of recovery which will not include oil. Oil says recesssion, retail stocks say recovery.

If you use fuel oil to heat your home, fill up now. Same for propane. Later on when its in demand, its going to cost twice as much. Everybody in New England should be pumping there tanks full right now. Its not going to get any cheaper than this especially when the airlines crank up again by the time Thanksgiving rolls around. Year over year I think air traffic will only be down by 10% by Thanksgiving UNLESS of course there is another terrorist incident in the air which I think has been precluded. By that time, they'll have the cockpit doors reinforced plus the air marshal routine in place. Flying confidence will return quickly.

-- Guy Daley (guydaley1@netzero.net), October 03, 2001

Answers

I think the huge plunge in natural gas prices - from over $10 to under $2 per thousand cubic feet - alone, tells a big story. It's simple: the economy is in much worse shape than the stock market is telling us. There has been an immense decline in manufacturing demand, in short, leading to a recession that is going to be a barn burner.

-- Big Cheese (bigcheese@multimax.net), October 03, 2001.

Worst part of this coming recession is that it will be a deflationary recession, much like Japan's with their current 0.1% interest rate. Our Federal Reserve is not used to fighting this kind of recession. This is why the eight rate cuts this year, with their cumulative 400 basis points worth of reductions, have done virtually nothing to restore the economy.

Alan Greenspan had better come up with a new approach fast. He is about to run out of ammunition.

-- Billiver (billiver@aol.com), October 03, 2001.

Greenspan has run out of ammo. Now we get this stupid, budget busting stimulus package from the president. One thing we can count on is that we NEVER learn from history. Japan has been pumping money into public infrastructure programs for years and it hasn't done a thing to stimulate there economy. Jobs have to be created at the roots. Instead, we're exporting jobs as fast as we can shut down industries because in countries like Mexico, China, India, Philippines and Indonesia etc, labor is infinite therefore cheap. Japan has been doing the same thing. There manufacturing jobs go to China, the Land of Infinite Labor.

-- Guy Daley (guydaley1@netzero.net), October 03, 2001.

Now oil is cheap because we're entering a recession YET retail stocks surged today as if there is going to be some kind of recovery which will not include oil. Oil says recesssion, retail stocks say recovery.

1 -- oil (or ANY commodity) trader(s) (on the exchanges where the price is set) could NOT care less if prices go up or down!!

They just want to be on the right side of the trade...PERIOD!

2 -- US gov't, Wall Street, and the entire world is looking for a way to pump up/prop up US stock market.

Therefore the disconnect.

We are headed for worldwide recession and demand will continue to drop. The price of oil can go up -- IF supply is cut quicker than demand drops -- but OPEC has a real problem now with cutting supply.

Our new best buddies, the Russians, are pumping as much at they can and will NOT cut. They have some VERY significant reserves, at least enough for the near term (10-15 years). They want OPEC to cut so they can get more market share and OPEC is afraid to lose market share.

Look for OPECs price band to drop from $22-$28 to $12-$18 (or so).

Of course, if all out war erupts all bets are off.

JB

-- Jackson Brown (Jackson_Brown@deja.com), October 04, 2001.

"Oil says recesssion, retail stocks say recovery."

And the Service sector says Depression. Retail stocks won't say Recovery very long if layoffs continue. The only way this administration is going to get the economy turned around is to find some way to keep people employed, so that they can and will spend again.

-- Jim Davis (JD1642@aol.con), October 04, 2001.