Assuming Osama bin Laden is the major figure behind the WTC and Pentagon attacks, I think he is well-pleased at everything that has happened so far, including the American reaction.

Here is what I think is going on.

First, it is important to grasp that bin Laden is playing a long shot. He may have millions of dollars, but that is a small bankroll for what he wants to accomplish. More than the money, he has a plan. With some luck, he wants to set events in motion that will lead to the emergence of a strong, unified Islamic power - not just to rival the West, but to overshadow it, just as we have overshadowed Islam for several centuries.

Everything is going exactly as he expected. Maybe even a bit better than he hoped for.

The coordinated attacks of Sept. 11 were meant to be massive enough in their effects to enrage us, galvanize us, make us bellow with pain and to make us leap into action. He did lose one plane over Pennsylvania, but the spectacular collapse of the WTC and the sense of crisis that engendered was too good to be true.

So far, so good. He wanted that.

He must have known that most of the governments of the world, including the moderate Islamic governments would line up behind the USA to come after him. After all, he saw the coalition during the Persion Gulf war. Rather than be upset, I am sure he wanted this.

From what I can see, bin Laden despises the moderate Islamic governments. He sees them as weak, as puppets for the West, as un-Islamic and the biggest obstacle to the Islamic power block he wants to catalyze into existence.

Bin Laden is counting on his belief that these moderate governments are ripe to be swept away by the same sort of revolution that took place in Iran. He sees them as so many Shahs waiting to be toppled. Bin Laden believes that the ordinary citizens of Egypt, Pakistan, Algeria and other Islamic countries are already disgruntled at their government's pro-West policies and their oppression of dissent at home.

How can he stir up these populations? He won't. He wants us to do the job for him.

Osama bin Laden is hoping and praying that the USA , in its rage and in the arrogance of our power, will over react to his deliberate provocation, overstep all limits of respect and decency, and overplay our position of strength so badly that our actions will backlash against us in the Islamic world.

In fact, this is his confident expectation. He feels certain we will act the part he has planned for us.

If we behave badly enough, if we bomb indisriminately enough, if we trample on Islamic pride arrogantly enough, we will be doing his work in the world. Then we will see the pro-Western Islamic governments completely discredited by their association with us and start to fall.

The more the Islamic world united behind fundamentalist governments, with ourselves as the enemy, the more bases he will have to operate from, the more fires we will be forced to put out. If Osama bin Laden can manage to spark revolt in places like Saudi Arabia (oil) or Pakistan (nuclear bombs), he will be more than halfway home. He'll have us by the short hairs.

You gotta admit, for man starting with a few million dollars and a few hundred fanatical recruits, he has figured out a plausible path to get where he wants to go: a billion Mulims united against the West, controlling most of the world's oil and protected by nuclear bombs. And our power vastly diminished.

Have you seen anything happening yet that shows he is much off course? I don't.

-- Little Nipper (canis@minor.net), September 24, 2001

Answers

on track, off track, as an x ordananceman the oil countries are not protected by nukes. The weapons we unleased on the highway of death were very old conventional weapons. But very effective, nukes are clean weapons compared to some of the new conventional stuff. mr. Laden's biggest mistake just as Sadam's was is to under estimate our capabilies. He is not going to believe whats going to happens next even while it's happening. We have special weapons that are beyound his reasoning. The man is power mad. You are wrong saying he started with a few million, He has billions of dollars at his disposal not millions, ( IE Herion) We must not under estimate him and his friends. Not just the religious nuts but the herion trafficers. Lots of people want control of that drug source, and don't want us to clean up the afgan goverment.

-- wayne (chrisandwaynehappy@home.com), September 29, 2001.

I tried some a that ‘herion’ shit and couldn’t grab a buzz.

-- Bob (Downey@in.LA), September 29, 2001.