July 21, 2001

Tech talent alarm sounded U.S. innovation needs jump-start BY TIA O'BRIEN Mercury News

``Everyone over the age of 45 in my lab was born in the United States. No one under the age of 45 in my lab is from the United States.''

With that simple statement, technology pioneer Stan Williams, chief of Hewlett-Packard's top-secret nanotechnology laboratory, shocked a group of congressional Democrats into grasping the dimensions of Silicon Valley's talent crisis.

Williams delivered his urgent message at the New Democrat Network's fifth annual retreat, which brings members of Congress west to learn more about Silicon Valley's needs. This time, the story told by some of high tech's original revolutionaries was sobering: America's innovation machine needs a high-voltage jump-start.

``We don't have the raw talent we need to be on the cutting edge,'' economist Paul Romer warned members of Congress attending last weekend's San Francisco gathering. The Stanford University professor is the father of New Growth economics, the theory underlying many of the New Economy concepts.

He drilled the politicians on the following grim facts:

Foreign countries, not the United States, are increasingly producing the engineers and scientists driving high-tech innovations.

This shortage not only threatens to further slow down the U.S. economy -- and our high-tech revolution -- but it could end the United States' 50-year reign as the world's technology leader. Romer's theory goes like this: In our new knowledge-driven economy, if we run short of highly skilled ``knowledge'' workers, we'll run short on great ideas needed to fuel revolutionary innovations.

Some of Romer's fellow conference panelists argued that this already has happened -- and that's one reason the Internet boom ran out of juice. ``We ran into an innovation shortfall,'' claims John Doerr, the visionary venture capitalist who helped university student Marc Andreessen co-found Netscape and parlay his Web browser into a product that transformed the Internet into a mass communication tool.

Romer is now urging Congress to use federal funds to encourage more students to pursue high-tech-related degrees. To drive home why federal help is so critical, he flashed an array of worrisome statistics before the Democrats, who listened with rapt attention:

Since 1986, the number of U.S. students graduating with computer-science degrees has dropped from 45,000 to 24,000. England, followed by South Korea, is ahead of the United States in the percentage of their populations with science and engineering degrees.

This leaves high-tech companies reliant on foreign innovators who are visiting the United States on temporary foreign-worker visas. Consider what's happening in Williams' HP laboratory -- where researchers are working on nanotechnology, which includes the next generation of microscopic computer devices that will be embedded in our clothes, homes, offices and cars.

Just last week, HP announced a major breakthrough: the use of molecules as circuits for these microscopic chips. But when the visas expire for some of Williams' under-45 researchers, they may leave -- taking their ideas with them.

``We've got to invest in a new seed kernel,'' said John Gage, a co-founder of Sun Microsystems who shared the stage with Williams. Gage glanced at Williams' graying ponytail and added, ``We're the old geezers.'' Both men were part of the generation of young techies in the 1960s and '70s who helped pioneer the personal-computer revolution.

`Wake-up call' ``This should be a wake-up call, not just to Congress but to the entire nation,'' said Rep. Cal Dooley, D-Hanford, who voiced support for a federal funding bill Romer is helping to craft with Sen. Joseph Lieberman, D-Conn.

The bill is a drastically scaled-back version of Romer's original solution, sketched out in a white paper last year. That initial $2 billion plan -- just .2 percent of the current $1 trillion budget -- called for universities to receive a $10,000-a-head bonus for each science or engineering graduate. And 17,000 students pursuing science and engineering degrees would be offered $20,000 in annual fellowships.

Now, one year later, aides working on a draft version of the bill say it would call for only $100 million in university incentives. The goal is to slowly grow the program.

``There's no way in this current environment that you could get even a billion-dollar bill passed,'' said Romer matter-of-factly. He learned the laws of politics from his father, former Democratic National Committee Chairman Ray Romer.

Democrats blame President Bush's tax cuts for leaving little money for new programs. They also claim the president's proposed budget slashes research funding for the sciences.

``Romer's proposal is dead on,'' said Rep. Adam Smith, D-Wash., who also attended the session. ``I think the Bush administration would be rhetorically on board, but would they make the policy choices needed to make this happen?''

Democrats are searching for Republican co-sponsors, which they hope will ultimately shore up White House support for the legislation.

Romer worries the Internet bust will encourage politicians to invest in a quick fix -- pouring money into a promising but unproven technology, instead of making investments that will keep paying off for the next 50 years.

Training's `huge payoffs' ``In the 1960s, we trained people like John Gage and we're still getting huge payoffs,'' said Romer, referring to the huge defense grants that helped universities incubate an entire generation of high-tech pioneers.

The economist told one final, unnerving story. Back in 1870, England was leading the second stage of the Industrial Revolution with such inventions as the steam engine. But then the United States started reaping the payoff from its new public schools and universities.

Recalled Romer, ``The United States cruised right ahead of them.''

-------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Contact Tia O'Brien at tobrien@sjmercury.com.

http://www.siliconvalley.com/docs/news/svtop/teched072201.htm

-- Martin Thompson (mthom1927@aol.com), July 21, 2001

Answers

I have over twenty years of experience as a mathematical simulation and modeling analyst engineer. (This 20 years includes working for sixteen companies, plus periods of unemployment.) Based on this large experience database, I believe the prime reason for any "talent shortage" is the way American corporations treat engineers as employees. There is no job security. Unions are rare. Layoff usually means relocation or (worse) temporary travel from home at one's own expense --- and risk. Too often the messenger that brings bad news gets the blame, (that is, job termination) so there is pressure to "pass" where engineering calculations and judgments indicate "fail". Policies are typically rigid; so innovation and ideas to improve quality and/or cut (real) costs is stifled. The tools needed to do good work are often inadequate. This includes overcrowded distracting offices, overloaded computer equipment, and inadequate access to necessary input data. Managers utterly fail to maximize engineer's unique personal strengths or to minimize the adverse impact of personal weaknesses. (Everyone has both.) Turnover is often so high that work "transfer" loss becomes very high.

-- Robert Riggs (rxr.999@worldnet.att.net), July 22, 2001.

called for universities to receive a $10,000-a-head bonus for each science or engineering graduate. And 17,000 students pursuing science and engineering degrees would be offered $20,000 in annual fellowships.

Oh, they will just put the money into the football program. Who wants a bunch of nerds, when they can watch those peirdy cheerleads spead their stuff.

My Unveristy had placed in top 3 for: CompSci, music and softball, and robotics. All those prgrams were nixed to support the football urge. And then they decided that the Greek thing was also the way to go.
I no longer wondered why we're headed for the toilet.
Give them the circus and cakes.

-- (perry@ofuzzy1.com), July 22, 2001.

I have worked in the petroleum industry for 30 years and had 40 jobs. Engineers work contract today and the length of the job lasts about 4 months. Forget any long term commitment such as families and houses. Most of the young talent went for law where there is a life.

-- David Williams (DAVIDWILL@prodigy.net), July 22, 2001.

This industry has gotten Congress and the administration's blessing to practice agae descrimination. Please see: Debunking the Myth of a Desperate Software Labor Shortage

http://heather.cs.ucdavis.edu/itaa.real.html

-- K (infosurf@yahoo.com), July 23, 2001.