Rich nations 'could be sued' by climate victims

Special report: global warming

Paul Brown, environment correspondent Tuesday July 10, 2001 The Guardian

States like Bangladesh that are the victims of climate change have a good case in law for suing polluters like the United States for billions of dollars, a law professor will tell a London conference today.

With the US delaying action on climate change and President George Bush refusing to ratify the Kyoto protocol, the case for court action is becoming overwhelming, according to Andrew Strauss, of the school of law at Widener University, Delaware.

His prediction comes as the European Union and Japan try for a deal that will keep the climate negotiations from collapse. Talks resume next week in Bonn on legally binding emission reduction targets that the US has rejected. A deal could still be struck without the US, but Japan is reluctant to upset President Bush.

John Prescott, the deputy prime minister, is flying to Japan today to try to find a compromise.

Professor Strauss was commissioned by the New Economics Foundation, a London based thinktank, to look at international law and the possibility of the poor countries demanding compensation from the rich polluting countries. With the science of global warming becoming better understood and accepted, and the blame more easily pinned on the big polluters, the legal case is becoming stronger, he will tell the conference.

Delegates will also be told that, in the UK, unless the government prepares the public for action to tackle global warming, the country could become ungovernable. The fuel protests last year showed how even a minor change in lifestyle enrages people - but this was nothing compared to the structural changes in the economy required in cutting greenhouse gas emissions by between 60% and 80%, which the government accepts would be necessary soon.

In a booklet, An Environmental War Economy, published today the thinktank comments: "The planet's economy does not have to be run like the Titanic, with the masses locked away in steerage while the travellers in first class enjoy a last few minutes of luxury. The world's poor lose their lives and livelihoods when climate change strikes. In the north, by contrast, governments quail at the prospect of persuading people to switch from cars to the train.

"In the short term the toll of climate-related, man-made disaster will kill millions, leave large areas of the planet uninhabitable, widen the gap between rich and poor, turn frustration in the developing countries into anger, and fuel the growth of conflict, civil war and mass migrations.

"When measures do finally have to be taken, the structure of government may be at risk."

So far, because of the US position, all progress has stalled on getting agreement to cut carbon dioxide emissions by an average 5.2% from 1990 levels by 2012. To come into force, Kyoto must be ratified by 55 countries, or by countries accounting for 55% of 1990 emissions - which makes Japan's support crucial.

http://www.guardian.co.uk/international/story/0,3604,519278,00.html

-- Cave Man (caves@are.us), July 10, 2001

Answers

EU shows hypocrisy on climate policy

By Margo Thorning / Special to The Detroit News

There seems to be no end to the European Union's wrath at the Bush administration's decision to abandon the Kyoto Protocol, with its requirements for steep cuts in U.S. carbon dioxide emissions, and seek another approach to climate change policy. In March, the EU environmental ministers descended on Washington to castigate the administration on its decision. At a recent meeting in Goteborg, Sweden, the EU ministers again urged President Bush to "sign on" to the fatally flawed treaty. Under the Protocol, the United States must reduce its carbon dioxide emissions to 7 percent below 1990 levels by 2010; the EU's target is 8 percent below 1990 emissions. Numerous analyses show that inflation-adjusted gross domestic product, or total economic output, would shrink by 2-4 percent annually ($200 billion to $400 billion) if the United States raised energy prices and reduce its energy use and carbon dioxide emissions by enough to meet our target. Before Americans start feeling guilty about admitting that we can't meet our Kyoto emissions target without crippling our economy, we should ask the EU representatives: "Can you?" The answer is "no." Myriad analyses from around the world conclude that since EU members do not have in place legislation to sharply curb energy use, achieving compliance with the protocol is very unlikely. Projected emissions are expected to be an average of 17 percent above the EU's Kyoto target. At the November 2000 Hague meeting, even the pro-Kyoto Clinton administration finally had enough of the strident, costly approach demanded by the hard-core "greens" and refused to sign an agreement. President Bush should ask the European ministers how they respond to the following studies: * The European Commission's "Towards a European Strategy for the Security of Energy Supply." The EU's own report shows that their carbon dioxide emissions will be 15 percent above their Kyoto target by 2010, rising to almost 20 percent above by 2020. While stressing the need to reduce CO2 emissions, the EU report cautions that climate change policy should not be allowed to "endanger economic development." (The EU doesn't seem to mind if the United States endangers its own economic development, not to mention global economic growth and security.) * The Pew Center on Global Climate Change, "The European Union & Global Climate Change." In an analysis of five major EU member states (Germany, United Kingdom, Netherlands, Austria and Spain) responsible for 60 percent of CO2 emissions in 1990, Pew concludes that only the United Kingdom has a good chance of meeting its targets. Germany will find it "difficult." The other three countries are "not on track"; emissions in the Netherlands currently exceed 1990 levels by 17 percent, Austria has no plans in place to meet its target, and Spain is already close to reaching its allowed growth in CO2 emissions, meaning that Spain is likely to be well above its emission target by 2010. * MIT Joint Program on the Science and Policy of Global Change, "Carbon Emissions and the Kyoto Commitment in the European Union." According to the results of an MIT model, carbon dioxide emissions in the EU will rise by 14 percent in 2010 above the 1990 levels instead of decreasing by 8 percent as required by the Kyoto Protocol. * The Australian Bureau of Resource and Agricultural Economics, "Climate Change Policy and the European Union. The bureau's report concludes CO2 emissions in the EU will increase by an average of 0.3 percent per year from 1990 to 2010 unless stringent new measures are undertaken. (In other words, emissions will rise by about 10 percent, rather than fall to 8 percent below 1990 levels). * U.S. Department of Energy-Energy Information Administration. The EIA analysis predicts that by 2010, emissions in Western Europe will be almost 25 percent higher than they were in 1990, falling far short of their Kyoto targets. * WEFA, "The Kyoto Protocol: Can Annex B Countries Meet Their Commitments?" The consulting firm WEFA surveyed five other government reports, including a EU study, (as well as its own analysis) and concludes that Western Europe is unlikely to meet its targets. Emissions would have to fall by 15 to 30 percent, which would constrain economic growth in politically unacceptable terms. Our European allies need to get off their high horses and face reality. Neither the United States nor the European Union can afford the costly and politically destabilizing sacrifices in economic growth and threats to energy security required to meet the Kyoto targets. What is needed to meet the potential threat of climate change due to human activity is an approach that stresses voluntary action to reduce CO2 emissions. This new approach is based on increasing our knowledge of climate science; improvements to the U.S. tax code, such as faster recovery of the cost of new investment that reduces CO2; increased use of nuclear power; removal of regulatory barriers that hinder firms from adopting less CO2-emitting technologies; and expansion of bilateral cooperation with developing countries. Without the participation of the developing world (including countries like China, India, Brazil and Mexico, which are not required to reduce emissions under Kyoto) in emission management, global concentrations of carbon dioxide will continue to rise, even if the United States and its European allies turned out all the lights, put their cars up on blocks and sat in the dark.

Margo Thorning is senior vice-presdient and director of researchfor the American Council for Capital Formation in Washington, D.C.

-- libs are idiots (moreinterpretation@ugly.com), July 10, 2001.

>>States like Bangladesh that are the victims of climate change have a good case in law for suing polluters like the United States for billions of dollars, a law professor will tell a London conference today.

And of course to bolster their case Bangladesh will show how its own non-polluting standards, say in the area of public sanitation, are so much superior to that of the mean US.

-- ComeOn!! (go.away@just.go), July 11, 2001.