Millions of US citizens 'face power cuts'

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Millions of US citizens 'face power cuts'

By Christopher Parkes in Los Angeles Published: May 15 2001 21:11GMT | Last Updated: May 15 2001 21:45GMT

Business, traffic and the daily routines of millions of Americans across the country could be disrupted by rolling blackouts this summer, according to the latest assessment of US electricity supply and demand.

California, already struggling for a year, will be worst hit, and may face up to 15 hours of power cuts a week. But New York City, New England and even energy-rich Texas are also teetering on the brink.

The estimates, from the North American Electric Reliability Council, take into account the effects of conservation efforts and rising rates on demand, plus the opening of power stations, and suggest California could still be up to 5,500MW short at peak periods. That is enough to power more than 5m homes.

Predicting a future even darker than the most pessimistic assessments from Californian authorities, the council - which represents industry, federal and state grid managers - said on Tuesday that the state could expect 260 hours of cuts over the summer peak.

In the other states and cities at risk it said the outcome depended on whether there were unexpected problems with generating plants or transmission lines, suggesting a precarious balance between supply and demand.

The council's annual assessment was released as Californian authorities met to decide by how much consumer rates would have to rise and who should pay most. The meeting of the public utilities commission was postponed from Monday after a wave of protests over its plans for business and industry - the heaviest consumers - to bear most of the burden.

While business organisations warned of the effects on investment in the state, academics and politicians said that sparing residential customers the worst of the increases would be counter-productive and discourage conservation at home.

The reliability council's estimates suggest voluntary conservation and reductions in demand due to higher prices will cut consumption by 3,250MW, but that will not be enough to compensate for the loss of supplies from the Pacific north- west.

Drought in the region has left hydro-electric reservoirs as much as 50 per cent lower than usual. While Oregon and Washington should have enough electricity for their own needs, there will not be enough to supply the volume usually exported to California in summer to keep the air conditioners whir- ring.

The increased risk of large-scale disruption has generated a series of demands for exemption from blackouts. The state's water authorities warned yesterday of threats to public health from sewage spills and water pipeline breaks if power was cut to its pumping systems.

So far exemptions have been granted to fire-fighting services, telecommunications and the power production and transmission sector.

http://news.ft.com/ft/gx.cgi/ftc?pagename=View&c=Article&cid=FT3Q35L0SMC&live=true&tagid=ZZZOMSJK30C&subheading=US

-- Martin Thompson (mthom1927@aol.com), May 15, 2001

Answers

Fifteen hours a week? Gosh, that's a bunch. They will likely come on hot, sticky, humid afternoons when the temps are going wild.

Glad I don't live in California.

-- Buck (bigbuck@trailways.net), May 15, 2001.


Fer God's Sake!! The world will not end, you might be uncomfortable, but you will not die from lack of A.C. You just have to "hoof it". Remember all your ancestors who did not have the dishwasher, nor the disposal thing, much less the a.c. They made it, or else you and your kind would not have survived. True, we cling true to modern conveninces, but we have and will survive all obstacles.

-- Oh Lawd (won'tyou@buymeamercedesbenz.com), May 15, 2001.

Some people are just to stew-pid to see the difference between now and long ago. Nobody said we will die without an ac unit. Long ago the very fabric of commerce was not dependent on electricity to function. Every piece of data in the industrialized world TODAY is collected on, and run by, computers that NEED electicity to do business. This is a long slow death for our country. I think I read once that 30 to 40% of the work-force in 1929 (the last crash) was a farming force. Now it is 4%. What happens to civilization when things go back the way they use to be with only 4% of the people with the knowledge to take care of thier owne family? I can give you the answer. PURE HELL!!!!

-- NdewTyme (NdewTyme@NdewT.com), May 15, 2001.

Back in the 70s, my husband worked in modeling and simulation, including future use and availability of resources. I remember him and his team mates saying that by 2020, we would see a rapid decrease in energy availability, increase in pollution, and degradation of the environment. They couldn't tell though which one was going to push us over the edge first. The answer seems to be: Energy (although water is not far behind). Swissrose.

-- Swissrose (cellier3@mindspring.com), May 16, 2001.

Swissrose, could you offer more details of your husband's modeling and simulation work? Who was he working for? Was anything ever published? Are current events matching those long-ago gaming scenarios?

-- Cash (Cash@andcarry.com), May 16, 2001.


Cash- at the time he was working at the Swiss Federal Polytechnical Institute, the Institute of Automatic Control. They had a project he was working on as an assistant while also working toward his Ph.D. They abandoned this direction after a while; it was fashionable at the time because of the work of the Club of Rome, etc. I don't think he has any publications on this, as he has since published extensively with his students on other aspects of modeling and simulation. Swissrose.

-- Swissrose (cellier3@mindspring.com), May 17, 2001.

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