Nuclear Weapons Analysis Software

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Something of interest from another forum:

Link

Nuclear Weapons Analysis Software

Someone- I think it was Alan Hagan- was looking for something like this recently. I ran across it in connection with another research question (as is often the case with posts here) and thought others might find it interesting/useful also, in light of the current uproar over strategic weapons.

As for me, I'm still planning to dig my next house... .

lpl ======================

www.nukefix.org/ --------------------

The computer program Nukefix makes it possible to assess and reduce the probability of a nuclear weapons use.

Nukefix screen snapshots show probability of a nuclear use, effects of proliferation, START II treaty, deterrence, simultaneous detonations, and more. This is THE BIGGIE. It is sufficiently large that it is divided into two pages (one & two). It is one of the most important sections of this website. --------------------

Nukefix shows that it takes only 354 to 800 Russian warheads to destroy every city and town in the United States that has a population density in excess of 1,000 people per square mile (all urban and metropolitan USA, 36.3% of the U.S. population, 94 million people). The highly-publicized START II treaty levels of 3,000 to 3,500 deliverable warheads by year 2007 (roughly a decade from now) offer little protection. Only 10% of these numbers of weapons hitting cities would produce unprecedentedly appalling destruction. ---------------------

The new Nukefix stretches capabilities far beyond what was previously possible:

The new Nukefix is designed for the serious researcher. On the nuclear weapons front, the past few years have been busy. Several thousand important nuclear weapon articles have appear annually in major newspapers and magazines. Categorized according to subject area, excerpts from many of them are now only a click away in the new version of Nukefix. References to them appear in Nukefix's Table of Contents. Never before has Nukefix contained such a thorough review of nuclear weapon news.

It is often asserted that nations will successfully learn to live with nuclear weapons, and that they will reach a state of relative safety. This presumes some kind of learning curve. In the new graphs attached to Nukefix's Learning Curve page, you can model and see the outcomes for two "learning" curves (Accidental and Willful Use). In most practical scenarios, the assertion that "learning curves" are sufficient to provide safety is baseless, because risk accumulated in early years all too rapidly tends to bring one to a 50% chance of a nuclear use.

See the expected death rates in the "T" (Treaty) command when limits on number of warheads anywhere from 10,700 to 10 are imposed on the superpowers.

See on the "Hit By Risk" page why baseline conditions show that the United States, over the long-term, is now experiencing a higher average risk death from nuclear weapons than from Cancer [over the long-term, 245 versus 209 deaths per 100,000 population annually].

Check out the methods for determining median years to nuclear attacks of different sizes in the "Q"(Quick) command.

See method for predicting median years to attacks of sufficient size to provoke nuclear winter/autumn on the "Nuclear Winter" page.

See the "SDI" page for methods, via probability analysis, for assessing the degree to which SDI can be expected to reduce the worldwide risk of nuclear weapon deaths. Typically, the reduction is quite modest at best.

See the "U" (Ultimate) command for the worldwide composite reluctance level curve. This curve provides a powerful tool for analyzing deterrence, death rates, and war in general.

The "O" (Outcome) command makes it possible to assess the consequences of ambiguous international relations, which do not have an explicit schedule for specific nuclear arms reductions. For a preview look at the screen snapshots and commentary provided here.

It is often difficult to estimate how many years will elapse before treaties dramatically reduce the risk of death from nuclear weapons. Will substantial reductions in risk occur in 3, 5, 10, or more years? With the "O", Outcome, command you can test the outcome.

Nukefix cuts through the nuclear dilemma with a few easy to use commands. Just press the "U" and "Q" keys when running Nukefix, and you will see how easy it is to make a highly competent analysis. More importantly, you can see precisely what nations are going to have to do in the post-Cold War era to deliver a safe system.

You can use the Nukefix "!" command to automatically write sections of reports and articles based on your own analysis of the nuclear weapons problem. Great for students, professionals, and those who regularly write about nuclear weapons.



-- Roddy Roentgen (to.who.it@may.concern), May 06, 2001

Answers

The above referenced post was originally authored by Lee Lapin. Credit was inadvertently left off.

-- RR (my@age.is.showing), May 06, 2001.

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