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Bad news for light rail: Clock's ticking, money slipping Friday, April 13, 2001

By CHRIS McGANN SEATTLE POST-INTELLIGENCER REPORTER

Looming deadlines and fleeting money for light rail came into sharp focus yesterday as Sound Transit's executive director outlined the impact of seeing more than $100 million in federal aid put on hold.

A report issued by the U.S Department of Transportation criticized the Seattle light-rail project and recommended that federal appropriations for the project be suspended until several unresolved issues -- including defining the project's schedule and scope, as well as a congressional review -- are taken care of.

Director Joni Earl told the Sound Transit's board of directors that the rough estimate that $125 million will be put on hold until 2003 will increase costs for the light-rail project by $40 million. And a new Bush administration policy that would limit future federal contributions for transit projects to 50 percent could mean an additional $150 million hit for the project, currently estimated to cost $4.2 billion.

"That destroys the financial plan," said board member Rob McKenna, a King County councilman.

And that's just the first round.

"The schedule is a huge challenge -- as big or bigger than the financial issues, and it feels like it's growing," Earl said.

If Sound Transit doesn't have its house in order by fall, it will miss the 2003 federal funding cycle, when it plans on getting $80 million more. Sound Transit staff members had not prepared an estimate for what that delay would cost the project.

Some board members now want agency staff and an independent review committee to reconsider building some variation of the $1.6 billion south segment, Airport Link.

Last fall, Sound Transit presented the north segment, University Link, to the federal transit administration as its first order of work, though the cost was underestimated at $1.6 billion. The most recent estimate for the 7.2-mile line linking the University District to downtown Seattle through a 4.5-mile tunnel came in at $2.6 billion.

King County Executive Ron Sims suggested beginning construction with the Airport Link in hopes of reducing one major expense -- the agreement on sharing the downtown bus tunnel.

King County and Sound Transit staff have been studying the possibility of operating buses and trains jointly through the tunnel. Sound Transit could lease tunnel use, and King County could avoid forcing its bus traffic onto downtown surface streets under this plan.

But Sims said the Sound Transit board had to resolve all the issues and have a firm plan in place by September.

"If the project slips and we don't get the 2003 money, the project becomes incredibly difficult," Sims said.

McKenna raised doubts about simply shifting the money from the more expensive University Link in favor of the south line because $931 million for that segment was to come from federal grants.

McKenna suggested that the board ask the review committee to expand its mission and analyze non-rail alternatives, including bus, rapid transit or monorail.

The board raised no concerns about a federal judge's order to suspend all property acquisitions in the Rainier Valley until a July 30 court date. The suit, filed by a South Seattle group, Save Our Valley, charges that light rail's adverse effects would fall disproportionately on minorities in that area.

"If they want to ignore our suit and think it will go away, that's fine," said George Curtis, a member of the group. "The judge may rule against us, but I wouldn't count on it."

Opinions among board members vary about whether the 21-mile light-rail route linking SeaTac and the University District is now out of the question. Sims and other board members said it's too early to tell. But McKenna said completing the entire route by 2009 is now impossible.

"It will be a shorter line," McKenna said.



-- (mark842@hotmail.com), April 13, 2001

Answers

""It will be a shorter line," McKenna said. "

Yeah, like the null set is a restricted set.

-- (zowie@hotmail.com), April 17, 2001.


Friday, April 27, 2001 - 12:00 a.m. Pacific Light rail can't be finished by 2009 By Andrew Garber Seattle Times staff reporter Sound Transit can't build a 21-mile light-rail system from SeaTac to Seattle's University District by 2009. That's the reluctant conclusion of Sound Transit staff after crunching numbers the past few weeks. "I don't think it's conceivable to do the whole thing" by 2009, said Joni Earl, the agency's acting executive director. This represents the agency's second projected delay in completing the system. In December, Sound Transit said the rail line, which was expected to be done by 2006, would be delayed by three years. Now, no date is being given. The agency has the money - about $2 billion in local funds - to build something before the end of this decade. But during a Sound Transit board workshop yesterday, there was no consensus about what to do next. "You're seeing the beginning of the debate to carve up the 21 miles," said board member Rob McKenna, a Metropolitan King County councilman and light-rail critic. Sound Transit had planned to split the light-rail project into two parts. The first phase would build a $2.6 billion, seven-mile segment from South Lander Street in South Seattle north to the U District. The second phase would go south 14 miles, from South Lander to SeaTac, and cost about $1.5 billion. The entire system was to be completed in 2009. The latest blow to that plan came earlier this month, when Sound Transit concluded it would fall at least $190 million short of the $4.1 billion needed to complete the system. The predicted shortfall results from changes in the amount of federal money the agency believes it can get. Sound Transit board members yesterday were all over the map about what to do. Seattle Mayor Paul Schell, a member of the board, said he strongly believes the agency should consider building light rail from downtown Seattle to SeaTac, and then figure out a way to reach the University District. "It's quick and we can afford it," he said. Board Chairman Dave Earling suggested building light rail from Tukwila north to Capitol Hill first, to salvage as much of the ridership as possible and get the federal money promised for the project. "This is the type of discussion we want to have," Earling said after the meeting. He said he expects the board to decide what type of system to build by September. Sound Transit staff gave more details yesterday about the projected costs of various segments of the 21-mile line, so that the panel could decide what to keep and what to postpone. The agency, using only local money, probably could afford to build light rail from the Convention Place station south through the downtown transit tunnel to Tukwila by 2008, said Lyndon "Tuck" Wilson, Sound Transit's acting light-rail director. It would cost about an additional $400 million to go to SeaTac and Seattle-Tacoma International Airport, he said. That extra money probably would have to come from the federal government, which is increasingly skeptical about the project. Sound Transit has an agreement with the Federal Transit Administration (FTA) for $500 million in federal grants through 2006 for the northern part of the route. However, allocations for this year and next, totaling $125 million, are on hold because of a report from the inspector general in the U.S. Department of Transportation. The report questioned Sound Transit's construction-cost estimate for light rail and the agency's ability to pay for the project. The inspector general recommended Sound Transit not get any money until it proved its numbers were accurate and Congress had more time to review the project. The FTA has said Sound Transit was too optimistic about how much additional federal money it could get. It suggested the agency scale back future requests. Sound Transit is scrambling to answer the inspector general's questions, decide how much federal money it's likely to get, and reconfigure the light-rail line within a few months. One key issue is the number of riders, Wilson said. A light-rail line from Convention Place to SeaTac would carry 35,000 to 50,000 riders daily. By comparison, a line from South Lander Street to the U District would have about 85,000 riders daily. "The central question is where is there consensus to build light rail now?" Wilson said. Andrew Garber can be reached at 206-464-2595 or agarber@seattletimes.com.


Gee, we can carry (projected) 85,000 riders a whole 7 miles for a mere $2.6 Billion. That's a mere $30,000 aeach capitalization costs, BEFORE YOU START PAYING OPERATING COSTS (or depreciation either, for that matter). How can we turn down a great deal like that?

-- (mark842@hotmail.com), April 27, 2001.

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