Bush Makes the Grade Experts Give President High Marks for Breaking Stalemate

By Carter M. Yang

W A S H I N G T O N, April 11 — With the crew of a U.S. spy plane coming home from China, international relations experts are giving President Bush high marks for his handling of the first foreign policy crisis of his administration.

Beijing's agreement to release the 24-member aircrew today ended a tense diplomatic standoff sparked by a midair collision between the American aircraft and a Chinese fighter jet over the South China Sea.

"The American people, their families and I are proud of our crew, and we look forward to welcoming them home," Bush said in the White House briefing room this morning.

‘A Big Test’ for Bush

The 11-day stalemate was broken by a letter from U.S. Ambassador Joseph Prueher to Tang Jiaxuan, the Chinese Minister of Foreign Affairs. Prueher wrote that the United States was "very sorry" for the loss of the Chinese F-8 downed in the incident and its still missing pilot and "very sorry" that the crippled Navy EP-3E Aries II did not have verbal clearance to enter Chinese airspace when it staged an emergency landing on China's Hainan Island.

Bush and Secretary of State Colin Powell both echoed that message today.

"This has been a difficult situation for both our countries," Bush said. "I know the American people join me in expressing sorrow for the loss of life of the Chinese pilot."

"He did enter [Chinese] airspace without permission and landed without permission," Powell said this afternoon of the EP-3E pilot, "and for that we are very sorry — but glad he did it."

Prueher's message and the carefully worded public statements by Bush and Powell all stopped far short of the full apology demanded by Chinese President Jiang Zemin, acknowledging no wrongdoing by the American aircrew — something U.S. officials maintained from the outset of the dispute would not be given.

"Overall, the Bush team is extraordinarily happy," says Kurt Campbell, the senior vice president of the Center for Strategic and International Studies and a former deputy assistant secretary of defense. "They are very confident that the letter they've passed … is clearly well within political and legal guidelines that they set for themselves very early on."

"This [was] a big test for a young president," Campbell adds.

Nick Lardy, a senior fellow at the Brookings Institution, says it was a test the president passed by using a determined, but very measured approach.

"He kept the rhetoric down, he was patient and worked the diplomatic angle very hard," Nick Lardy, a senior fellow at the Brookings Institution, said of Bush. "He was low key, he was firm, yet, diplomatically, he exhibited a lot of flexibility."

Bush 'Caved,' Some Conservatives Say

Throughout the course of the standoff, many influential conservatives urged the president to take a harder line by approving the sale of advanced weapons to Taiwan (which China considers a renegade province), work to revoke China's favorable trading status with the United States, oppose Beijing's bid for the 2008 Olympics or recall Prueher from Beijing. Bush did none of those things.

"He ignored them, which is to his great credit," says Joe Montville, director of the preventive diplomacy program at CSIS. "He did not let them affect his decisions … It's a great win for grown-up diplomacy."

Rep. Joe Pitts, R-Pa., who urged the Bush administration never to apologize and even to seek an apology from Beijing for detaining the American aircrew, says he is satisfied with the administration's wordsmithing.

"The president has handled the situation very adeptly — I think he's prevented a tough situation from becoming worse," said Pitts. "What he is saying is that they're very sorry about the loss of life … and although we didn't cause it, we're not pleased when anything like this happens."

But not all conservatives are pleased.

"[C]an it really be a good thing for the U.S., in the long term, that we apologized for our plane landing in Chinese territory?" asks longtime China critic and former Republican presidential candidate Gary Bauer. "The crew had no option after a reckless Chinese pilot hit their plane … It is sad that we would 'apologize' for that forced landing."

"The Bush administration has caved publicly to the Chinese communists, and we aim to find out if any secret promises were made to the 'Butchers of Beijing' behind closed doors," said Tom Fitton, president of Judicial Watch, a conservative legal foundation.

Campbell dismisses such criticism.

"There are going to be a few people on the far right saying we went too far vis-a-vis China," he remarks. "I think that suggests that they've managed it just about right."

But Alex Lennon, editor in chief of Washington Quarterly, warns that once the aircrew is safely back in American hands, the administration could move to impose one or more of the sanctions against China that conservatives urged Bush to undertake before the standoff was resolved.

"This game is just beginning," Lennon says. "The administration could decide to really stick it to the Chinese … There could be congressional pressure to take a series of vindictive actions."

Day of the Doves?

Experts say the resolution of the standoff was also a major victory for Powell who, many speculate, was in a behind-the-scenes tug-of-war with other high-ranking administration officials such as Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld and Vice President Dick Cheney, a former secretary of defense. Those two men are considered hawks on national defense issues.

"There has been, apparently, a little drama in terms of who has the most influence on the president's decision-making," adds Montville. "This looks like a very strong win for … the secretary of state."

During the standoff, Cheney and Rumsfeld were largely sidelined, at least publicly.

"There was some tension — there's no doubt," says Lardy. "This is a victory for Secretary Powell and a more realistic, less ideological approach towards dealing with China."

-- Anonymous, April 11, 2001

Answers

MSNBC

Bush aces first big foreign crisis test President shows he can learn on the job After 11 days of delicate negotiations with the Chinese, Bush on Wednesday was able to announce the expected release of 24 American servicemen and women. By Howard Fineman SPECIAL TO MSNBC.COM

WASHINGTON, April 11 — One thing about George W. Bush: He is a quick study. At Yale he was a “coaster” not a “grind,” waiting until the last minute to hit the library. But let’s give credit where credit is due: This freshman, a coaster who knew next to nothing about China and who acted as a cowboy in the first day or two of the spy plane crisis, quickly mastered a new role and a new brief, and has just aced his very first graduate-level exam in foreign policy crisis management.

THERE ARE OF course flash points ahead. The president must soon decide whether to authorize the sale of high-tech military equipment to Taiwan. He will have to manage what is sure to be a fractious debate about China’s role as a trade partner. There is always the chance that the Chinese will want to flex their growing military muscles in some way, and soon, in the Taiwan Strait. And of course the critics will suddenly find reasons to declare that the whole thing was easy: that the Chinese were desperate not to harm trade relations; that the media hyped what was really a small-time incident; that it was all handled by others in his administration. Some conservatives are already are in a self-induced rage, claiming that Bush was doing what no American should do: kowtow to the Chinese military. But let’s be fair. In impressive fashion, Bush quickly learned to modulate his public role. And as chairman of the board, he chose the players to take the lead in the negotiations and rode herd on the team that brought this incident to an end. The wording of the American letter won’t satisfy everyone, but it will get the kids home without the one thing we could not do: apologize for spy flights.

How do you rate President Bush's handling of the dispute over the spy plane?

Excellent. He kept the rhetoric cool and won the crew's release.

Fair. He got the crew out, but China still has the plane.

Poor. Beijing dragged this out far too long.

Vote to see results

Unsure of himself in the first two days of the standoff — and eager to show that he was in charge — Bush appeared in the Rose Garden to make a series of public threats for the immediate, unconditional return of the crew. He had to do so for domestic political reasons. Though his overall approval ratings are high, voters have doubts about whether he really knows enough to do the job. But it’s now widely agreed that the Rose Garden Cowboy phase was a mistake. He didn’t need to make public threats that served to back the face-obsessed Chinese into a corner. Bush piped down. Then he put Colin Powell and Powell’s deputy, Richard Armitage, in charge, with heavy involvement from Condi Rice and — in the background for the most part — Dick Cheney and Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld. A CHANGE IN TONE The tone changed, and the behind-the-scenes diplomacy began in earnest. Bush calmed the air of crisis by going about his business in public, throwing out the first ball on an opening day, heading off to Camp David for the weekend. Meanwhile, Cheney, Rice and others made it crystal clear what the administration would NOT do: apologize for spy-plane flights in international airspace. The U.S. couldn’t do that without undercutting our rationale for worldwide electronic surveillance. Advertisement

The wording and substance of the deal is a model of diplomatic face-saving. We said we were “very sorry” for landing in Hainan without verbal permission. Technically, a plane in a Mayday situation doesn’t have to do that. But so what? The American servicemen and women should be back in time for Easter. As for Bush, there are benefits as well. He showed that he could and would learn on the job, and well. His management of the crisis can further chip away at lingering doubts about his knowledge, savvy and ability to lead. It’s of course silly to compare Bush with the leader he once told me he most admires — Winston Churchill — but at least the wiseguys in Washington will have a harder time comparing Bush with Jimmy Carter, which is what they were preparing to do.

-- Anonymous, April 11, 2001

most experts, at least those who rate for an interview on TV, are cold, calculating company men that want things smoothed over as soon a possible.

how could it be otherwise?

-- Anonymous, April 12, 2001