New England Study sees gas heat, electric shortages

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Study sees gas heat, electric shortages By Chris Reidy, Globe Staff, 2/6/2001

ome New England consumers could go temporarily without heat or electricity during the winter of 2003 because the pipeline system may not be able to keep homes and power plants supplied with natural gas on peak winter days, according to a study released yesterday by the operator of the region's power grid.

The situation could worsen by 2005 if pipeline capacity isn't added to serve new gas-burning electrical plants that are rapidly coming online, said a study commissioned by ISO New England Inc.

While the pipeline is cause for concern, it is unlikely that New England will suffer the kind of rolling blackouts and high energy costs that have plagued California, ISO said.

''There is a serious potential problem,'' said the study's author, Richard L. Levitan. ''The problem is whether there is or is not sufficient pipeline capacity to bring an adequate supply of natural gas to the doorsteps of the new generation plants.''

''The prognosis is good so long as a reasonable amount of new pipeline capacity is added in appropriate locations,'' he added.

Released at a time when consumers are seeing a big increase in home heating costs, the study recommends that steps be taken to increase the capacity of the pipeline system and to require new power plants to be able to burn both natural gas and oil.

Some environmental groups criticized the ISO study for not putting more emphasis on conservation and on renewable energy sources such as wind and solar power instead of oil.

''We think renewable energy sources should be part of the plan,'' said research coordinator Deborah Donovan of the Union of Concerned Scientists, an advocacy group based in Cambridge.

David O'Connor, state commissioner of energy resources, offered a different perspective.

''The report is well done and very useful,'' he said of the ISO study. ''There is nothing here to indicate that we're facing the kinds of problems that California is having.''

Unlike California, New England is in the midst of a power-plant boom. Eight new plants have been built in the last few years, and another 10 could come online within the next few years.

Older plants tend to rely on nuclear power, coal, and oil. But new power plants mostly burn natural gas, and there is concern that New England could become overly dependent on gas.

Two years ago, natural gas accounted for 16 percent of the total electricity production in New England, Levitan said. By 2005, natural gas could account for 45 percent of production.

Such an escalation could create a problem as the region's existing network of pipelines lack the capacity to transmit that much natural gas, especially from November to March, when gas is used to produce electricity and to heat people's homes.

Half the new plants are permitted to burn oil but only for brief intervals, Levitan said. One recommendation is to require gas-fired plants to have back-up oil-burning capabilities.

''In the short term, we have plenty of gas,'' said Richard Kennelly, a staff attorney for the Conservation Law Foundation in Boston, an environmental advocacy group. ''What we have to do is to develop more gas infrastructure.''

According to Kennelly, aging power plants are one of the chief culprits of air pollution; new gas-fired power plants should dramatically reduce air pollution in New England.

Chris Reidy can be reached by

e-mail at reidy@globe.com.

http://www.boston.com/dailyglobe2/037/business/Study_sees_gas_heat_electric_shortages+.shtml

-- Martin Thompson (mthom1927@aol.com), February 06, 2001


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