According to Austrian economics, the boom or speculative bubble bursts when the credit expansion ends. If a depression does indeed follow a credit boom, then Champagne Joe, the typical yuppie with borrowed money in the market and no savings faces a series of unpleasant events.

Here's a possible scenario.

1.The markets fall and Joe gets a margin call. He must sell or come up with more money. The ensuing bear market wipes out his stock portfolio. The idea that stock ownership is the same as bank savings is put to rest forever.

2.The sudden market drop slows down the economy. Joe finds his stock options are worthless and the company he works for is cutting back. Either he or his wife may lose their job. Family income plummets.

3.Monthly payment on the home mortgage that was refinanced to 100% of value take a big bite out of family income. The value of Joe's home has now dropped far below the amount of the mortgage.

4.The price of all imports, including oil, soar upward in price because the dollar has fallen precipitously. Joe and his family can no longer afford to go shopping at the mall.

5.Interest rates go through the roof and Joe's variable mortgage floats upward. His house payment has become unmanageable. Joe struggles to pay off credit card debt. Borrowing costs are intolerably high, a new car or major purchase is out of the question.

6.Joe's company files bankruptcy. He takes a job elsewhere at half his prior salary.

7.Joe's home goes into foreclosure. He and his family move in with his sister.

8.Stocks continue to drop relentlessly. Joe's retirement plan is worthless. Now his family can only afford the bare essentials of life.

9.Joe's wife loses her job. She files for unemployment, but government revenues have shrunk dramatically and benefits are reduced.

10.Joe suffers from severe depression and spends his days watching the financial channels where a full-fledged panic unfolds in the stock and bond markets. Joe watches the dollar collapse and interest rates scream upward as liquidity vanishes.

11.Joe decides to file bankruptcy.

12.Joe turns to his parents for help. Joe's parents, who had all their money with brokerage houses in money market funds and bond funds find they can't liquidate their holdings. Failures in commercial paper render money market funds illiquid. High yield (junk bonds) funds collapse and all holders are trapped, never to get a penny. Corporate bond funds face massive liquidations and plunging values. Joe's parents are wiped out.

This isn't the worst of it. There's the potential for even greater failures, a total collapse that wipes out the wealth of America and leaves the public without help from any source. We are all at risk.

-- silver joe (silverjoe@aol.com), January 17, 2001

Answers

Acording to Yugoslavian economics, Joe put all his savings into hard assets. A severe depression occurred complete with crossed cascading carbuncles. Joe got hungry. His hard currency could buy no food. Who wanted shiny pieces of metal in return for sustenance? Joe's wife did ok. Joe finally caught on. Now he sells his butt for a crust of hard bread.

-- (VonMises@Sara.jevo), January 17, 2001.

VonMises, you're wrong. I grew up in Europe during the war and I remember those who had the silver and gold had it made. Those without were starving!

-- hollandse kerel (hollandsekerel@aol.com), January 17, 2001.

It's on sale at Threads'R Us.

MAKE A THREAD. Lets you talk to yourself..

Dirt cheap and worth the same.

-- Carlos (riffraff@cybertime.net), January 18, 2001.

Now he sells his butt for a crust of hard bread.

um, does he get butter w/that? Sheit, tell me HE GITS butter w/that.

please.

-- sumer (shh@aol.con), January 19, 2001.

Joe needs a gun.

-- Porky (Porky@in.cellblockD), January 19, 2001.

I have a .22 my grandpa gave me. Want that?

-- Bemused (and_amazed@you.people), January 19, 2001.

Would that be a semi-automatic?

-- (Porky@in.cellblockD), January 19, 2001.

No. Bolt-action, very old. He claims he killed a moose with it, but I have my doubts. Forget it, I want to keep it.

-- Bemused (and_amazed@you.people), January 19, 2001.