http://www.nationalreview.com/comment/comment011001f.shtml

1/10/01 1:55 p.m.

As the Lights Go Out in California

A failure of Davis, not deregulation.

By Jeff Sandefer, third generation oilman and professor of entrepreneur at the University of Texas, Graduate School of Business

Governor Gray Davis's response to California's energy crisis is so foolish that it is unclear whether he is acting out of political desperation, profound economic naivete, or just plain stupidity. Whatever his motive, if the governor continues on his current course, the citizens of California may soon be, quite literally, in the dark.

Davis has indicated that he is willing to seize power plants to “force” them to produce cheap electrical power. Yesterday, he took the first steps: He assumed emergency powers to regulate power markets, and advanced the state attorney general $4 million to prosecute predatory power companies. The governor also declared that the state would take over construction of all new power plants.

This unprecedented threat -- a state seizing private assets -- comes in response to a growing energy crisis that threatens to either blanket California in blackouts or smother its economy. In recent months, natural-gas prices have soared up to 25 times last year's averages, forcing wholesale electricity prices up over 900 percent. Two of California's largest utilities, Southern California Edison and Pacific Gas and Electric, unable to pass along some $12 billion in fuel costs to consumers, are teetering on the edge of bankruptcy.

Gov. Davis and other Democratic politicians would like to blame the crisis on so-called “deregulation,” which the governor has labeled a “colossal and dangerous” failure. In fact, California energy reforms failed because reforms were stopped halfway. Utilities could not sign long-term contracts, which would have signaled natural-gas producers and power generators in advance to add more supply. And once the crisis started, utilities were prohibited from passing cost increases on to consumers, preventing a tempering of demand.

Whatever the cause, the outlook for California consumers is bleak. While Gov. Davis may make good on his threat to seize generating stations, much of California's energy supply comes from neighboring states. Interventionist policies are likely to further frighten financial markets, worsening the fiscal plight of California utilities, which could cause suppliers to refuse to transport energy across state lines.

At this late stage, allowing prices to climb to market levels would decrease demand, but at the cost of shuttering much of California's industry, causing a deep recession and a rout of incumbent politicians in the next elections. Gov. Davis's recent actions may be a sign that he understands the stakes and is simply looking to transfer blame.

As with past trends, California may be a leading indicator of troubles to come for the entire country. Natural-gas storage levels across the United States are 30 percent below normal levels. A few more weeks of cold weather, and the country could run short of fuel for factories, homes, and schools: a crisis that even Joe Stalin couldn't nationalize away.

-- (in@energy.news), January 11, 2001

Answers

More Republikan lies.

It's CLEARLY stated in the Constitution that you have the RIGHT to have your house at 80 degrees in the winter and every light on. It's the State's responsibility to pay the bill, not ours.

Frank

-- Someone (ChimingIn@twocents.cam), January 11, 2001.

The armies of the sovereign Republic of California gather menacingly on the border of Nevada.

-- (nemesis@awol.com), January 11, 2001.

That does it!

I'm off to Kmart, incognito in cheap Super Bowl jewelry, in search of off-brand nuts & a white bus or twelve.

-- flora (***@__._), January 11, 2001.

Oh, crap; does this mean I have to stand guard at the state line?

This is going to cut into my wine-tasting time .....

-- (PatriciaS@lasvegas.com), January 11, 2001.

"This is going to cut into my wine-tasting time ....."

{Beware of geeks bearing gifts}

-- you didn't hear it from flora (***@__._), January 11, 2001.

{To all "geeks [who would be] bearing gifts": Think expensive French white.}

-- Standing guard at the state line (PatriciaS@lasvegas.com), January 11, 2001.

Pat,

Just light the BIG CANDLE...LOL!!!

-- Peg (pegmcleod@mediaone.net), January 11, 2001.

Peg, I'm thinking that if I lit that in my front yard, they'd SEE IT in California!!

Hey, I could be A Beacon In The Night.....

-- Patricia (PatriciaS@lasvegas.com), January 11, 2001.

Calif. outages could hit 2 million people

Thursday, 11 January 2001 16:05 (ET)

Calif. outages could hit 2 million people By HIL ANDERSONUPI Chief Energy Correspondent

LOS ANGELES, Jan. 11 (UPI) -- As many as 2 million Californians faced the prospect of rolling blackouts Thursday evening as the state's power reserves tumbled due to a series of power plant failures overnight combined with rough seas that slashed the output of at least one coastal nuclear power plant.

The California Independent System Operator declared a Stage Three Power Emergency for the entire state Thursday and braced for the peak early evening hours of 5 to 7 p.m. PST when outages are most likely.

"The ISO is in a Stage Three electricity emergency," said ISO Chief Operating Officer Kellan Fluckiger. "That is something that has happened only one other time."

Due to transmission bottlenecks between Northern and Southern California, the blackouts were considered most likely to occur in Northern California, said Fluckiger, who would not rule out potential problems in the south as well.

Stage Three power emergencies occur when the state's power reserves fall below 5 percent; a Stage Three alert contains provisions for the launching of periodic outages in blocks of territory to be determined by the individual utility companies. The outages, which are aimed at preventing the entire grid from crashing, last about an hour before they are "rolled" to another area.

Fluckiger told reporters on a conference call Thursday that no outages had taken place. However, the early evening hours would be the most likely time since that is when street and store lighting turns on and people return home from work and begin switching on lights, television sets and other electric appliances.

"We are currently working with neighboring states to access additional megawatts (of electricity)," said Fluckiger. "We are trying to get a hold of every megawatt we can."

The Stage Three was issued after a rough night for California power officials. A rash of mechanical problems involving 10 to 11 generating units, accounting for around 2,000 megawatts or a third of the state's total capacity, were either knocked off line or forced to run at reduced capacity.

Compounding the problem was a gale that churned up the ocean around the seaside Diablo Canyon nuclear power plant in San Luis Obispo, forcing operators to throttle down to 20 percent of capacity. The possibility that kelp and other flotsam could clog the intakes that funnel seawater into the plant's cooling system prompted the reduction in power.

A Department of Energy emergency order requiring power producers to sell surplus power to California expired Wednesday night and had not been renewed as of Thursday afternoon.

The ISO was able to make it through the Thursday morning high-demand period with a razor-thin reserve of less than 2 percent.

"We made it through the morning pull (demand) -- barely," Fluckiger said. "We expect the evening pull to be 3,000 megawatts more than the morning pull. That's when we expect to have outages."

Fluckiger said it was hoped that around 1,000 megawatts of generation could be brought back on line before the evening peak, and a Stage Three alert allows the ISO to tap into electricity normally used to power the huge pumps that run state water projects.

Conservation by consumers would not have a huge impact, however it would certainly be welcome, Fluckiger said. --

http://www.vny.com/cf/News/upidetail.cfm?QID=151399

-- Cave Man (caves@are.us), January 11, 2001.

You know what the sad part is? If there ARE blackouts, people in Calif. will scream, not to build new power plants, but to pass laws making blackouts illegal.

Frank

-- Someone (ChimingIn@twocents.cam), January 11, 2001.

Hey Frank,

Shouldn't you be using your energy out in that stupendous stormy commute pretty soon?

http://www.lainsider.com/autos/traffic/latraffic.html

-- flora (***@__._), January 11, 2001.

Flora,

Yeah, soon it'll be time to go face the music. I've tried using that CalTrans info before, but it's (pardon the expression) CRAP. Look at the map, all the "incidents", and it STILL shows traffic coming out of downtown L.A. as doing ">35 mph"!!! Traffic on a GOOD day isn't doing >35 mph, how fast do you REALLY think it's going now?! Oops, Rant off.

Anyway thx for the link. As a useless bit of trivia, I was kind of lucky in my commute this a.m., I woke up early & decided to just go in early and catch up on paperwork. I got in about 6 after doing a straight hour at ~65 mph. I heard that later the roads were a nightmare full of accidents.

Oh well, as my Protestant brothers say, "The Lord works in mysterious ways".

Actually, the more I think about it, I've put in a decent day, I think I'll go home now and see if I can beat the evening nightmare.

Thanks for the advice :-) ,

Frank

-- Someone (ChimingIn@twocents.cam), January 11, 2001.

You know they say traffic in Atlanta is the worst in the nation, with the longest drive times and highest pollution.

Of course, I live three miles from the office, so I wouldn't know anything about it. It's never taken me more than 15 minutes to come home.

-- Tarzan the Ape Man (tarzan@swingingthroughthejunglewithouta.net), January 11, 2001.

There's no way not to make this sound ugly but it should please at least half of you.

A goodly number out there think we Californians are all nuts anyway or just hate us for our weather. For us much maligned SoCal types it's at least a little comforting that any blackouts will happen in the northern part of the state. As much as the rest of you make fun of all of us our more liberal Northern Folk revel in making fun of us Southern folk. They don't want powerplants built cept maybe in our or your backyard.

OK. Let the games begin.

-- Carlos (riffraff@cybertime.net), January 11, 2001.

If the lights go out in California, many are prepared for it. Earthquakes are a way of life, as well as flooding, and other natural catastrophes. Life does not end when the power goes out for an hour, GAWD, people act like it's the end of the world! I hope the whole damn state goes black, everyone needs a reality check from time-to-time.

-- stomry (stormy@blizzard.cue), January 11, 2001.

"I hope whole damned state goes black."

I don't. No chaos prayfull doomer here.

But, if some blackouts occur better in CISCO country than here in SoCal.

-- Carlos (riffraff@cybertime.net), January 11, 2001.

Carlos,

Forget California - Norte or not. It will all soon be known as part of the Greater CISCO Territories, hon. Patricia's not being so difficult about it, now why should you be?

{Prepare to be assimilated}

Seriously, weren't the news wires down there blaring "rolling blackouts between 5:00 - 8:00PM" from three to five yesterday afternoon? The mega SF ABC radio report at five effused that 'thanks to conservation, and power from Oregon & Washington - it looks like we've dodged a bullet. Expect daily warnings...'.

Frank,

You should've seen the waves yesterday, dude...the gnarliest I've ever ogled.

-- flora (***@__._), January 12, 2001.

what are waves?

-- Lars (larsguy@yahoo.com), January 12, 2001.

The power co. that cried wolf?

-- (cin@cin.cin), January 12, 2001.

p.s. FRANK, EXCUSE ME...my lights are off unless I am using them and I havent had my heater on yet. I pay my utility bills just like you do. Are there any more misinformed assumptions and accusations you'd like to make about me?

-- (cin@cin.cin), January 12, 2001.

Flora,

(Sigh) It's been a ***LONG*** time since I've been down to watch the big outsiders crash on the underside of the pier on a rainy day, but OTOH I did get to save earthworms with my kids yesterday.

Carlos,

It is ironic isn't it? No. Cal. is always shouting, "Conserve, Conserve", but whatever happens be it drought or a power crisis, they're always the hardest hit.

Frank

-- Someone (ChimingIn@twocents.cam), January 12, 2001.

Lars,

We had 35 footers in some spots, & yet still a few numbnut surfers & sea doo-ers from the shallow end of the gene pool heard the siren's song.

In fact, the swells pushed seaweed up into the intake of one of our power plants in the state - that was part of the problem.

Truly it was an inspiring storm - made me feel like a small potato. Luckily the ground wasn't fully saturated when the fierce winds blew through early on, falling trees tend to get on my nerves after awhile.

Frank,

I'm glad that you got to commune with the earthworms yesterday, and had your kids to share it with. Pretty keen, eh?

-- flora (***@__._), January 12, 2001.

"The problem with the gene pool is that there's no lifeguard."

-- Waiting for "geeks" bearing gifts..... (PatriciaS@lasvegas.com), January 12, 2001.

Military update

The Army of Kalifornia has overrun southern Nevada. They have occupied Hoover Dam and are diverting all water and power from AZ and NV to CA. They have occupied the Sigfried and Roy compound and are starving the tigers prior to releasing them to feed on the citizens of LV.

NV has established a center of resistance at Area 51. They urge all patriotic prostitutes with STDs to offer freebies to the Kalifornia invaders.

Wayne Newton is in his warroom.

The traitor Steve Wynn is collaborating.

-- (nemesis@awol.com), January 12, 2001.