Power crisis warning issued

Power crisis warning issued

By JOHN STROMNES of the Missoulian

Problems may loom in western Montana

POLSON - The Bonneville Power Administration has alerted utilities and county emergency and disaster officials in western Montana that the region is on the verge of a crisis in electric power supply.

No rolling blackouts yet. But the situation is very serious, as bad or worse than anything seen in a decade or more.

"The bottom line is that unless substantial amounts of surplus energy at much lower prices become available in the western United States, BPA will have a reliability problem and/or a financial problem unless extraordinary actions are taken," the BPA said in a "talking points" paper distributed at meetings last week with area officials.

On Thursday, BPA spokesman Ed Mosey in Portland, Ore., said some utilities in western Montana will face a 30 percent increase in the cost of wholesale power by Oct. 1. BPA itself is seeking a 15 percent increase from federal regulators right now.

"Rates could double" for local utilities that did not sign long-term contracts for power from the BPA several years ago, Mosey said. A list of which BPA-contracted utilities in western Montana will be affected by that increase was not available Thursday from BPA's Portland office. Missoula BPA officials were out of the office.

Ralph Goode, manager of Mission Valley Power in Pablo, which serves most of Lake County and eastern Sanders County, said his utility was not among the utilities facing big rate increases since MVP had been an early signer of a long-term contract locking in relatively low power rates for the next decade.

BPA said the projected energy shortage is due to a number of factors

Low streamflow and snowpack conditions have reduced the amount of hydroelectric power generation available in the region.

Northwest generating resources have not kept up with increased demand.

The region's historic ability to import significant amounts of surplus electric power in winter from California, Canada and elsewhere is "substantially reduced to a lack of available resources in those areas."

Meanwhile, BPA said it has been buying high-cost electricity it sold previously at low cost to industrial firms and other entities in the past in order to supply anticipated demand this winter for residential heat, lights and other vital energy needs.

The federal agency has secured over 600 megawatts through buybacks and power purchases at a cost of

$100 million, dangerously drawing down the agency's cash reserves.

But that is a drop in the bucket compared to anticipated demand.

The agency said its own analysis of the power demands for the entire Northwest region "indicates the regional deficit (in January and February) may be as high as 4,000 megawatts."

BPA spokesman Mosey said the agency has already began a program to encourage industrial conservation of electricity from aluminum companies, which use vast amounts of electric power.

BPA also has initiated an Internet store for big power users offering a "demand exchange" program. A paper mill, for example, can log on and agree to curtail production for hours or a few days, with BPA paying it an agreed-upon price for the power saved, plus the company's associated costs.

"The price has to cover the cost of their having to shut down," Mosey said, "so it is very expensive power."

The agency, in coordination with investor-owned utilities and some state governments, will run out a major ad campaign soon geared toward consumers in large market areas such as Portland and Seattle, urging people to turn off their lights and computers and other electric appliances when the appliances are not absolutely needed.

"BPA will not send power to California if doing so would worsen the Northwest's energy shortage," the agency promised.

On the other hand, there is a bright side. No rolling blackouts are expected this winter, unless a big cold snap engulfs the entire northwestern United States, because there is enough water in hydroelectric reservoirs to supply anticipated energy demands.

But using that water this winter will hurt fish this spring. Under federal rules for conserving water for salmon migration and other fisheries requirements, the agency must maintain enough water in hydro-power reservoirs to meet these requirements.

If BPA determines there is a system emergency, it would then be able to use additional water for power generation to respond to the emergency conditions. But that would create a debt of water for the fish.

"If it becomes necessary for BPA to declare a system emergency, water stored in reservoirs that is intended to aid in recovery of endangered salmon will be used to generate additional electricity to respond to the emergency situation," the agency said.

As of Thursday, BPA had not declared an emergency, mainly because of the relatively balmy weather system that pushed onto the West Coast in late December and is now bathing western Montana in sunshine and snowmelt.

"As long as weather is normal (no major cold snaps in January and February across the Pacific Northwest) this is not a 'lights-out' situation," the BPA said.

But the agency urged local users to conserve power, not only to help out the region's power consumers and producers, but to help the lowly fish.

"To the extent the region's electricity consumers can reduce their energy consumption and avoid a system emergency, they will be performing an essential service that will directly aid endangered salmon and steelhead," the agency said.

Reporter John Stromnes can be reached at 1-800-366-7186 or at jstromnes@missoulian.com.

http://www.missoulian.com/display/inn_news/news04.txt

-- Martin Thompson (mthom1927@aol.com), January 05, 2001

Answers

Time to get your Y2MI generator :-§

-- spider (spider0@usa.net), January 05, 2001.

BPA warns state of power crisis By JOHN STROMNES Of The Missoulian

POLSON – The Bonneville Power Administration has alerted utilities and county emergency and disaster officials in Western Montana that the region is on the verge of a crisis in electric power supply.

No rolling blackouts yet. But the situation is very serious, as bad or worse than anything seen in a decade or more.

“The bottom line is that unless substantial amounts of surplus energy at much lower prices become available in the Western United States, BPA will have a reliability problem and/or a financial problem unless extraordinary actions are taken,” the BPA said in a “talking points” paper distributed at meetings last week with area officials.

On Thursday, BPA spokesman Ed Mosey in Portland said some utilities in Western Montana may see a 30 percent increase in the cost of wholesale power by Oct. 1. BPA itself is seeking a 15 percent increase from federal regulators right now.

“Rates could double” for local utilities that did not sign longterm contracts for power from the BPA several years ago, Mosey said. A list of which BPA contracted utilities in Western Montana will be affected by that increase was not available Thursday from BPA’s Portland office. Missoula BPA officials were out of the office.

Ralph Goode, manager of Mission Valley Power in Pablo, which serves most of Lake County and eastern Sanders County, said his utility was not among the utilities facing big rate increases since MVP had been an early signer of a long-term contract locking in relatively low power rates for the next decade.

BPA said the projected energy shortage is result of several factors:

Low streamflow and snowpack conditions have reduced the amount of hydroelectric power generation available in the region.

Northwest generating resources have not kept up with increased demand.

The region’s historic ability to import significant amounts of surplus electric power in winter from California, Canada and elsewhere is “substantially reduced to a lack of available resources in those areas.”

Meanwhile, BPA said it has been buying high-cost electricity it sold previously at low cost to industrial firms and other entities in the past in order to supply anticipated demand this winter for residential heat, lights and other vital energy needs.

The federal agency has acquired more than 600 megawatts through buybacks and power purchases at a cost of $100 million, dangerously drawing down the agency’s cash reserves.

But that is a drop in the bucket compared to expected demand.

The agency said its own analysis of the power demands for the entire Northwest Region “indicates the regional deficit (in January and February) may be as high as 4,000 megawatts.”

BPA spokesman Mosey said the agency has already began a program to encourage industrial conservation of electricity from aluminum companies, which use vast amounts of electric power.

BPA also has initiated an Internet store for big power users offering a “demand exchange” program. A paper mill, for example, can log on and agree to curtail production for hours or a few days, with BPA paying it an agreed-upon price for the power saved, plus the company’s associated costs.

“The price has to cover the cost of their having to shut down,” Mosey said, “so it is very expensive power.”

The agency, in coordination with investor-owned utilities and some state governments, will run out a major ad campaign soon geared toward consumers in large market areas such as Portland and Seattle, urging people to turn off their lights and computers and other electric appliances when the appliances are not absolutely needed.

“BPA will not send power to California if doing so would worsen the Northwest’s energy shortage,” the agency promised.

On the other hand, there is a bright side. No “rolling blackouts” are expected this winter, unless a big cold snap engulfs the entire Northwestern United States, because there is enough water in hydroelectric reservoirs to supply expected energy demands.

But using that water this winter will hurt fish this spring. Under federal rules for conserving water for salmon migration and other fisheries requirements, the agency must maintain enough water in hydro-power reservoirs to meet these requirements.

If BPA determines there is a system emergency, it would then be able to use additional water for power generation to respond to the emergency conditions. But that would create a debt of water for the fish.

“If it becomes necessary for BPA to declare a system emergency, water stored in reservoirs that is intended to aid in recovery of endangered salmon will be used to generate additional electricity to respond to the emergency situation,” the agency said.

As of Thursday, BPA had not declared an emergency, mainly because of the relatively balmy weather system that pushed onto the West Coast in late December and is now bathing Western Montana in sunshine and snowmelt.

“As long as weather is normal (no major cold snaps in January and February across the Pacific Northwest) this is not a ‘lights-out’ situation,” the BPA said.

But the agency urged local users to conserve power, not only to help out the region’s power consumers and producers, but to help the lowly fish.

“To the extent the region’s electricity consumers can reduce their energy consumption and avoid a system emergency, they will be performing an essential service that will directly aid endangered salmon and steelhead,” the agency said.

Updated: Sat Jan 6 03:04:48 CST 2001 Central Time Copyright © The Billings Gazette, a division of Lee Enterprises.

http://www.billingsgazette.com/ads/circ/weekfree.html

-- Martin Thompson (mthom1927@aol.com), January 06, 2001.