Time flies....

It was just a year ago when we were waiting for the much ballyhooed rollover. Flint and a handful of pollies (myself included) had survived our tenure on the old forum and were waiting to see what actually happened.

It really is quite enlightening to read the old forum in the days before the impending collapse. I even found Unk D having a snippy moment on this thread:

Ed's Video Production

And here are reactions from some regulars 31 days from rollover:

Y2K Myths

What a long, strange trip it was. I wonder if the boys and girls over on EZB will celebrate the one year anniversary? Just curious.

-- Ken Decker (kcdecker@att.net), December 23, 2000

Answers

Some are STILL waiting, you know. For them, it's STILL "a long, strange trip". (snicker)

Unk: Tsk, tsk -- a "snippy moment"? So unlike you ;-)

-- Patricia (PatriciaS@lasvegas.com), December 23, 2000.

You pose a good question....unfortunately one that I don't have an answer for. I am very much aware that when the stuff hits the fan you nearest and dearest will turn on you if not of the same mind-set. They will report you and bring others to attention of what you have. Like I have seen written and agree with, there are those in your neighborhood that watch and yet they do nothing for themselves. They will become part of the maurading band of theives and bunderers. I live in an apartment complex....I have visions of the other residents coming to the door armed...breaking the door down and distributing everything I have saved to the other residents. The nicest, sweetest, kindest will turn into savage uncivilized animals (probably their basic nature) and then the bigger questions comes to mind of what will I do about it? Will I surrender all I have or will I be a posted guard at my own door to stop by whatever means anyone who comes.. Now, think about that...someone will have to be home all the time standing guard at the door. That seems remote and impossible for me..a single person. My son has asbolutely no concern...he will be one of the pack. I stopped telling him long ago what I do but he is my son....he comes to my home...he thinks, he sees. I am sure that what I am saying is understood. How far are any of us going to go to preserve self? This is a question all of us must make just like how many cans of peas to collect. I am making my plans now to move from here and cut my son off further from my plans as his philosophy and mine are in opposition. It's too bad because he would be good for protective purposes. It's too bad because I want to include him in my survival plans but he will sell me out. That is a very hard pill to swallow. Are any of you in the same boat? Not only that but in neighborhoods of homes in close proximity when the neighbors have nothing to do all day but scavenge there will be a systematic door to door searching going on. It isn't enough to have collected all of your stuff in your home....a wise choice is to distribute your collection in many different places and in many different disguises. That way if one catch of stuff is found...not all is found. Your home is the first place anybody is going to look. Besides your neighbors going door to door there will be law enforcement going door to door only they will know exactly which door to go to from the information contained in all those databases like Costco and Sams Club. All your purchases are tagged to your I.D. card of the store. Buying in bulk is a great "red flag" to your name. Also, buying on the net using your credit card....another flag and tag. When the time comes....those that survive will be those that have learned the subtle art of "multiple personalities". :-) So, in summary we are probably collecting for confiscation. Don't be surprised if it happens...don't succumb if it happens...just be aware. Your ability to survive may not depend on your storehouse but your ability to become a scanvenger/hunter/gatherer/adapter/changeling. Just like the old days, huh?

-- (prepperthre@d.on.slezy), December 23, 2000.

http://pub5.ezboard.com/fyourdontimebomb2000.showMessage? topicID=18671.topic

-- (the@link.above), December 23, 2000.

Yes, like you, sincerely believe that hard times are coming and that they are coming soon - really soon. I see and talk to so many that have their heads in the sand who do not believe that any hard times are coming. That everything will be just fine, maybe a small recession, and then go on fine. There are others who get so angry at me when I just barely mention any doom and gloom scenerio. One of these the other day, a friend, did finely mention to me that she has money in the market and is worried.

But unfortunately I do NOT have a place of my own but rent so I have not prepped one bit. Instead of prepping, I am getting rid of all useless items that I do NOT NEED. Any items of interest am getting them together to send to the family. And am keeping all my survival gear in top shape so that I could leave in a moment's notice. Because for me when these real hard times hit, I plan to go up in the deep deep wilderness and live with the Mother Earth in the old ways. This society of ours at that time will be in utter chaos and will be NO Where to be. There is still so much wonderful deep wilderness here in this country where one can live in comfort if one knows what they are doing. Also in so many of these deep wilderness areas, you do not need money and the goods which is of our society for the Creator and the Mother Earth provide everything. There are so many areas back in these back deep wilderness areas where people hardly get to for they are too busy working and by their habits are so alienated from the Mother Earth and her ways. When everything comes apart at the seams, they will be fighting among themselves just for the scrapes that are left and it will be NO PLACE TO BE. This Deep wilderness for me is not only a refuge but also my HOME! May The Creator Bless!

-- (froms@me.thread), December 23, 2000.

Y2K cost me a lot of skee. But, despite my snippy nature, most of the stuff I spent my skee on I used anyway. In fact I think I can still wipe my butt for about another 8-9 months without spending any more skee on TP. Skee. Love that word. Almost as good as spoon.

-- Uncle Deedah (unkeed@yahoo.com), December 23, 2000.

Ed Yourdon selling a Y2K video is like Chicken Little (no, not THAT one) selling meteor insurance.

-- Barry (bchbear863@cs.com), December 23, 2000.

Skee is a good word. For some reason, I like rip tide, but it's fairly difficult to work into everyday conversation around here, given the number of inland lakes.

-- (raven@never.more), December 23, 2000.

One year ago

http://insidedenver.com/shns/story.cfm?pk=Y2K-ALERT-12-20- 99&cat=AN

EMERGENCY CENTERS WILL BE OPEN IN ALL 50 STATES FOR Y2K

By THOMAS HARGROVE
Scripps Howard News Service
December 20, 1999

- Public concern over the millennium computer bug has prompted all 50 U.S. governors to activate their emergency operations centers on New Year's Eve in one of the largest crisis preparedness mobilizations in peacetime history.

Thousands of state employees will crowd into communications centers, National Guard armories and local courthouses throughout the United States. Tens of thousands of others - especially technicians with computer skills - have been ordered not to take extended vacations during the holidays so that they are available if problems occur.

Emergency management officials in many states report that the mobilization will be the largest in their history. Several said not even the Cuban missile crisis of 1962, when scattered civil defense workers were put on alert for fear of nuclear war, prompted as large a mobilization as is scheduled for New Year's Eve.

The nervousness stems from the possibility of problems developing in some computers and embedded circuits that read only the last two digits of a date. They may mistake 2000 for 1900 and could malfunction.

"The dilemma for us has been how to be prepared without creating alarm," said Ronn Padgett, executive director of Kentucky's Disaster and Emergency Services. "It's rare that we know the date and time of a potential emergency. So Y2K has certainly been a new experience for us."

Kentucky will call up 400 National Guard troops to observation posts in all 120 counties and within the state's 47 armories. Padgett said several hundred civilians also will be asked to work Dec. 31 and Jan. 1 to monitor communications and utilities operations, answer telephone calls from the news media and fretful citizens, and to prepare immediate field reports for the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA).

"Really, there was ample reason for all of the states to decide to open their EOCs," he said.

A survey of emergency management or Y2K preparedness officials in all 50 states by Scripps Howard News Service found that every central state crisis center will be opened by at least 5 p.m. on Dec. 31. Several states plan to mobilize their top emergency staffs two or three days in advance and will keep their crisis centers operating well into the new year.

A similar survey conducted in June found that only 26 states were committed to full mobilization of their emergency staffs.

"This is proof of a collective common sense among the states," said Nula Forde, spokeswoman for the Connecticut Department of Information Technology.

Connecticut officials have ordered at least 300 government workers to be at their monitoring posts on New Year's Eve, although only a third will be stationed in the Emergency Operations Center in Hartford. Most will be stationed in smaller centers in each of the state's 16 major agencies, including at least 70 at the state's Department of Information Technology.

California officials will activate all three regional emergency centers and have constructed two special Y2K monitoring centers at a former automobile maintenance warehouse owned by the California Highway Patrol.

"We realize that it is important to show the public that we are monitoring, that we are prepared," said Eric Lamoureux, spokesman for the California Governor's Office of Emergency Services.

The state is putting the finishing touches on a Joint Information Center to monitor events inside California, as well as a Follow-the-Sun Command Center that will observe the severity of Y2K-related problems in the 19 time zones east of California. Both centers - which are being carpeted, given drop-down ceilings, and equipped with computers and telecommunication gear - will be disassembled after New Year's Day.

"It is unique in that we know that something is coming so far in advance. And we know there will be a need to let the public know what is or, hopefully, what is not happening." Lamoureux said.

The extensive mobilization comes even though state authorities overwhelmingly believe their own computer systems will suffer few, if any, breakdowns. Forty-nine of the 50 state spokesmen answered "no" when asked, "Are there any specific computer systems in your state that you are worried will not operate after Dec. 31?"

"Any program could fail," said Scott Elliott, spokesman for the Pennsylvania Governor's Office of Administration. Even though he was the lone voice of gloom, he noted that Pennsylvania technology officials have labored for three years to fix the Y2K glitch and he could not identify a specific critical system expected to fail.

Most states are reporting a very high level of confidence, often citing a readiness rate in which 98 percent or more of all so- called "mission critical" computer systems are already prepared and tested.

"We've spent perhaps a million hours of labor fixing our systems," said Mike Benzen, chief information officer for Missouri. "We feel confident we're ready."

One of the important duties emergency managers will face on New Year's Eve will be to send regular status reports to FEMA in Washington, which has created a special system to receive updates on any failures in power, water or telecommunications systems anywhere in the nation.

But many of the state managers said their biggest priority in committing to such a large mobilization is public relations.

"It's important to demonstrate to the public that we don't expect any problems, but that we are prepared to deal with anything," said Lamoureux.

---

(Scripps Foundation Wire reporters Sheila Edmundson, Bernard McGhee, Carolyne Park, Geoffrey Redick, and Jeff Rose contributed to this story. Thomas Hargrove is a reporter for Scripps Howard News Service.)

-- (one@year.ago), December 23, 2000.

Also a year ago

http://www.thekansascitychannel.com/sh/technology/y2k/technology-y2k- 19991230-172237.html

FEMA Awaits The Stroke Of Midnight

Federal Emergency Management Agency Has More Than 800 Personnel Working Through The New Year's Weekend

WASHINGTON , Updated 12:33 p.m. EST December 30, 1999 -- Hundreds of federal emergency officials have fanned out across the country and will await the stroke of midnight in each U.S. time zone Friday with an eye toward Y2K disaster.

The Federal Emergency Management Agency has established 10 regional centers to monitor potential catastrophes in the United States and its territories.

Beginning today, FEMA will have its emergency support team in full gear around the clock through Sunday. More than 800 personnel will be working through the weekend.

The agency can draw on resources from as many as 26 federal agencies and the Red Cross if Y2K emergencies arise.

"FEMA is confident that nothing serious will happen, but we are prepared to respond just like we would for any other natural disaster or any other emergency situation," said Robert Adamcik, associate director for FEMA response and recovery.

Preparing for 18 months, the agency's officials have rehearsed a multitude of scenarios, including explosions, power outages and nuclear disaster.

FEMA officials said they will constantly gather information from state and local governments throughout the weekend, monitoring them with an automated system that assigns a green light to communities that are OK, a yellow light to those where an emergency is suspected but information is incomplete, and a red light for a confirmed disaster.

FEMA would be called in only after a state's governor asked President Clinton to declare a federal disaster area.

"Some of the things that we can provide under the plan range from mass care that Red Cross can provide, food through the Department of Agriculture, transportation, communications, search and rescue or emergency medical and pharmaceuticals, should those be needed by state and local government," said Bruce Baughman, chief of operations for FEMA response and recovery.

The Health and Human Services Department, Centers for Disease Control and Defense Department have gas masks and antidotes in the event of chemical or biological terrorism, FEMA spokesman Marc Wolfson said.

Officials emphasized that they had not received any specific threats, but extra security measures were introduced at federal buildings across the country this week, said Bob Dunfey, the regional administrator of the General Services Administration in New England.

At the federal courthouse in Boston, visitors and courthouse employees were asked to produce photo identification to enter the building.

In Scranton, Pa., officials told visitors to the federal courthouse to park in nearby lots rather than on the street right outside, allowing the building to have a buffer, said Dave Branham, a spokesman for the U.S. Marshals Service.

Even if a significant disaster arises that is not related to Y2K, such as an unexpected weather phenomenon, FEMA would respond, Adamcik said. However, certain emergencies -- cyber terrorism, local civil disturbances, a national security emergency or long-term economic recovery -- would fall under the purview of other agencies.

President Clinton's top Y2K expert, John Koskinen, said stores appear to be fully supplied if people wish to stock up on water or other provisions for parties or a long midwinter weekend.

Copyright 2000 by The Associated Press. All rights reserved.

-- (one@year.ago), December 23, 2000.

I celebrated this anniversary of those days by heating the house with wood (as usual), lighting with oil lamps, eating canned food and playing my own music. Pretty nice, all in all. Now *that's* what the end of the world should have been like. In small doses, of course.

-- Flint (flintc@mindspring.com), December 23, 2000.

I will celebrate this anniversary like I celebrated the rollover -- SCUBA diving in the Caribbean. I hope the Cozumel is just as nice this new year as it was last.

I suspect, however, that prices will be higher. New Year 2000 was great -- the Y2K hype scared off lots of tourists

-- E.H.Porter (Just.Wondering@About.it), December 23, 2000.

I'm wondering how the hell I got so much done,given the time of year(in my biz) and spent the cash I had available so wisely? Oh what a difference a year makes.

-- capnfun (capnfun1@excite.com), December 23, 2000.

Me too capn'. Not sure to credit y2k but my focus changed. Better businessman now and hopefully better person. Paying attention to stuff I hadn't in both arenas. A year later is better in both respects.

-- Carlos (riffraff@cybertime.net), December 23, 2000.

If things are so bad your neighbors will be turned into marauding packs of theives and "bunderers", why WOULDN'T you be able to stand guard at your own house 24 hours a day? Where the hell else will you go?!?

I feel bad for that person's son. What kind of relationship must he have with his parent for his parent to regard him as a future "pack" member?

-- Tarzan the Ape Man (tarzan@swingingthroughthejunglewithouta.net), December 23, 2000.

howdy there porter-how ya been. Haven't seen you in awhile. welcome back.

-- SydBarrett (dark@side.moon), December 23, 2000.

With the anniversary pending, I took a look at all the existent forums and found my way here. Somehow, it seems fitting that Mr. Decker would be wanting to remind everyone how right he was last year ;-).

Predicting that Dubya would win this year made some people right. Hindsight certainly overlaps some of the predictions ("Gore was and is a stiff" etc) but foresight and hindsight do not intersect - except for God.

Just like 1998 and 1999 (predicting my personal reaction to the possibility of being wrong), let alone 2000 (hindsight), I was/am actually thrilled that I was wrong and others right. Hey, how much more right about what counts can a person be?

Apart from the biggest single reason for being wrong, that Y2K wasn't remotely as serious as I feared (even allowing for remediation), I suspect I allocated greater powers of deceit to Clinton and everything he touches than even he aspires to. My strongest concern wasn't, per se, that Y2K would be awful but that the data wasn't trustworthy - and my decision as a father of five and an active member of my small community that I needed to prepare as well as be ready to help as many people as possible.

I overlooked a key point, namely that Clinton's moral corruption could only spread so far and so fast over an eight year period. On balance, Bennett and Koskinen had it right enough - both during the 'alarm' phase in 1998 and early 1999 and the 'probably ok' phase after that.

I did (and continue to find) the erosion of honesty in our political and 'professional' culture to be a rot that makes it difficult, for me at least, to weigh publicly presented evidence about many things. The O.J. trial may someday be a fitting metaphor for a wrong-turn about simple truth that the Republic took to its ultimate disintegration. Oops, have to watch those predictions.

Last one out, turn out the lights.

At least they're still on.

I think I should have given more credence to one of Ken's points in 1999, though I wouldn't go quite so far as I think he did. Namely, there weren't the kind of information leaks from Wall Street and the rest of the business world that would have been congruent with a meltdown. My caveat there is that there can be a significant disconnect between technical reality and what the executives are told and/or grasp. That said, impending meltdown is a serious matter and not easily covered up once you get to, say, September 1999. As I say, I think Decker had a very strong point here - with respect to foresight, not merely hindsight.

Some may remember (?) my saying many times that Y2K was unutterably boring. How true. Some of you were very interesting, but the subject was just incredibly tedious compared to sunsets, love, the Mets and chads. Scratch chads. Wait, I didn't mean to say that.

Anyway, to those of you who were right, congratulations! May you always be right! Better you than me.

It looks like some of you will be around here in December of 2001. See you then, perhaps. Now, back to that Beaujolais ....

-- BigDog (BigDog@duffer.com), December 23, 2000.

The 'Mets'? :>))

-- Barry (bchbear863@cs.com), December 23, 2000.

Stunning. Of course, nobody could ever prove something would NOT happen. When you add up ALL the things nobody could prove wouldn't happen, the list verged on infinite! And with a list THAT long, why, we were sure to be overwhelmed by bad things. Weren't we?

It's good to see, at long last, that the utter and complete lack of symptoms or hints of any actual problems, the silence from industry, the normal life of remediators, the nonreaction by the market, etc. provided a clue Big Dog has finally begun to fathom. The notion that those who were pointing this out might actually have believed what they were saying, however, hasn't quite penetrated yet. Well, it's only been a year.

When I read this stuff, and remember how very hard Big Dog worked to lock out everyone whose expectations and explanations bordered on sane, I can only laugh. I guess we all got our wishes. We got to listen and learn from one another, and Russ' crowd got to stick their fingers in their ears with EZboard software, and all lived happily (if not quite, uh, rationally) ever after.

-- Flint (flintc@mindspring.com), December 23, 2000.

>> Flint and a handful of pollies (myself included) <<

I am sure I will be corrected, if correction is needed, but is it not true that Ken was predicting a recession induced in part by Y2K and that Flint had stockpiled something on the oreder of a year's worth of supplies (before moderating his position in mid-1999, or so)?

I wonder, strictly speaking, if Flint and Ken were really "pollies"? Or is this a case of some shades of grey being honorarily "white" because they contain more white than black?

-- Brian McLaughlin (brianm@ims.com), December 23, 2000.

Brian:

Of course, by the standards of the outside world I was a borderline nutcase for quite a while. I had a big stockpile of all kinds of stuff, and put huge gobs of money, time and energy into being able to get through various atypical kinds of hard times.

It was the lack of any sign of anything ever, combined with nothing happening anywhere at the key dates the programmers who wrote these bugs knew about, combined with Yourdon saying April 1 would be a critical indicator, and then rejecting all that it indicated when it wasn't suitable to his purposes, that turned me around.

I think I was an honorary polly not because of shades of gray, but because I was never willing to buy into the illogic being used to justify meltdown in the absence of *anything* concrete. Ultimately, support for the doomer position needed to rest on something beyond the impossibility of proving a negative. It never did.

-- Flint (flintc@mindspring.com), December 23, 2000.

Then there were those of us who were completely right (laughter!)

Seriously, it IS funny to revisit some of that old crap and laugh about it...and it also is not surprizing to see "lapdog" (as Mutha used to call him) and (can it be 'kevin, mixer of music' with the news cut and paste?) other anon pessimists still trying to justify what they did. Will they ever "GI" (more LAUGHTER!) You have to wonder after all this time if they will ever really and truly "get it".

Happy holidays everyone,

Fred (who will soon need to come up with a new handle and E)

-- Super Polly (fu_Q_Y2kfreaks@hotmail.com), December 24, 2000.

Touche, Flint.

I am mildly surprised that Russ "Big Dog" Lipton has emerged from EZB.

As Flint notes, who was right (or wrong) is far less important than how. On the old forum, BD and his cronies attempted to squelch dissent and demonize any opponents.

BD, with a St. John's education, you simply should know better. If you are interested in finding the truth, you need to set aside personal feelings (like your hatred of Clinton) and examine the data with an objective eye. Oh, yes, I remember your attack on objectivity. I don't buy it any more today than I did 18 months ago.

Open and honest discourse offers the best chance of advancing knowledge (or making a keen prediction). You were wrong, BD, because you made up your mind and then locked the door to any further consideration of the matter (though you did do an elegant job of moderating your position late in 1999.)

If you are interested in "getting it right," I suggest you might be better served outside of a closed forum. In any case, enjoy your holiday.

Brian,

Flint says it well. By the way, I never assumed the mantle of "polly," it was thrust upon me. While I was more sanguine about Y2K than Flint, I was at least aware of the issues. This made me a bit more "doomeresque" than the general population. Oh, and there is a bunch of real estate between recession and "doomer" predictions for Y2K.

-- Ken Decker (kcdecker@att.net), December 24, 2000.

Yeah the one year aniversary of BEING WRONG.

They are trying to forget, or get everyone ELSE to forget....

"...hey uh, lets just change the subject, can we?"

Yourdon, North and the rest of the fruitcakes (and their Nazi censorship) just hope it will all go away in time. Like their careers, it WILL 'go away'.

But never to the loyal, slavering followers.

-- Go Away (y2k@jerk.offs), December 26, 2000.

We can't stick to the subject *and* go away at the same time. Make up your mind!

-- (H@ppy.holidays), December 26, 2000.