Calif. Limps Along Under Threat of Power Outages

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Wednesday December 6 9:43 PM ET Calif. Limps Along Under Threat of Power Outages

By James Jelter

SAN FRANCISCO (Reuters) - Bombarded by dire warnings to turn off their Christmas lights or risk being plunged into darkness, Californians are trudging through the holiday season feeling betrayed by the state's power industry.

With about a third of the state's power plants out of service and little power to buy or beg from neighboring states, California is teetering on the brink of widespread blackouts.

``We're about to hit the Perfect Storm here,'' said Patrick Dorinson, a spokesman for the California Independent System Operator (ISO), the agency that oversees the operation of about 75 percent of the state's power grid.

He was referring to the book and Hollywood blockbuster about a fishing boat lost in the vortex of colliding storms.

Facing shortages this time of year, when power demand is far lighter than during the heavy air conditioning loads of summer, is unprecedented and especially unsettling in California.

``We have a large number of plants off line. We haven't had any rain, so we're not getting any power from hydro generators. And we're not getting as much power from the Northwest as we used to,'' Dorinson said.

The situation is so precarious that state officials have urged Californians to keep their outdoor holiday lights off until after 7 p.m., when the evening power peak has passed.

These immediate problems are symptomatic of more fundamental issues tied to a fast-growing population, now topping 33 million, and California's red-hot economy.

The economic boom, fueled by high-tech industries, is pushing up demand for electricity at 4-5 percent a year in some counties, well above the 2 percent national average.

But little has been done to keep up with demand.

Californians, known for their environmental activism, have resisted building new power plants. Consequently, almost no new generation has been installed here during the past decade.

``You can't keep adding about a half a million people to the state every year, with all the lights, heaters, air conditioners, and computer warehouses that go along with that, not build any power plants, and not expect a problem,'' Dorinson said.

Plea For Imported Power

California has long been dependent on power imports, with about 20 percent of its electricity purchased from huge hydroelectric dams in the Northwest and a variety of coal-fired, hydro, and nuclear power plants in the Southwest.

But power from those dams is typically scant this time of year, with Western rivers running low after a long, dry summer.

Oregon and Washington, heavy power exporters in the spring and summer, are currently holding back water to serve the needs of their own residents when the weather turns cold, as meteorologists predict it will this weekend.

While Northeast power officials remain confident they have enough electricity to met loads on their local systems, they warn there will be little -- if any -- left to help California.

This raises the urgency behind California power producers' efforts to get their downed units back on line.

Currently, more than 11,000 megawatts of generation are shut in California of a 30,952 megawatts statewide total, with most of the outages stemming from overdue maintenance work after running the units hard all summer to meet heavy air conditioning demand.

One megawatt is roughly enough to power 1,000 homes.

Adding to the outages is the fact that several big power plants, totaling about 2,700 megawatts, have used up their annual allotment of pollution credits and cannot restart without facing stiff fines.

Natural Gas Also In Tight Supply

Some of the slack is being taken up by gas-fired power plants, but tight natural gas supplies -- blamed on two years of mild winters, low prices and dwindling production -- and high demand for home heating and power generation have pushed the operating cost of these units through the roof.

Natural gas prices at the Southern California border soared this week to $35 per million British thermal units, 16 times its price a year ago, and industry analysts warn they are likely to remain strong through the winter.

That price is contributing to the astronomical rise in wholesale electricity prices across the Western states.

Electricity delivered Thursday into the power grid at substations along the Columbia River, a major trading hub, fetched between $550.00 and $750.00 per megawatt hour Wednesday.

The same power a year ago could be bought for just $28.00.

Faced with cold weather and regional energy shortages, California power industry officials are warning that the current supply crisis could last for the next two weeks.

Meanwhile, San Francisco is putting a brave, civic-minded face on the otherwise gloomy situation.

City officials said they would go ahead with the annual Christmas tree lighting tonight in Golden Gate Park using a portable generator instead of tapping the overstretched power grid.

``We are using the generator out of respect for the energy shortage that is affecting San Francisco and other parts of California,'' said Becky Ballinger, spokeswoman for the city's Recreation and Parks Department.

http://dailynews.yahoo.com/htx/nm/20001206/ts/energy_california_dc_3.html

-- Martin Thompson (mthom1927@aol.com), December 07, 2000


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