Computer Simulation Predicts Bush Wins Election

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Congratulations, Dubya! If our electoral simulation is correct, you're the new prez. This is based on what statisticians call a Monte Carlo simulation, a standard technique in which virtual elections are repeated over and over based on the latest poll intelligence to get an average score. The result? According to our in-house mathematician and polling analyst (read the writeup below): "At the end of each list of trials the maximum, minimum, and average over the 100 trials are reported for each candidate. Though 270 Electoral Votes are needed to claim the Presidency, in none of the 200 simulations here did Gore win over 257. The average result is Bush 340 and Gore 200." Alas, our author can't take the credit he deserves. Because of unrelated, non-political consulting work he does for the government, he wishes to remain anonymous.

Link

-- Maxwell (dont-know@not-telling.xxx), November 06, 2000

Answers

Guess that about wraps it up. I'm staying home tomorrow.

-- (hmm@hmm.hmm), November 06, 2000.

Yeah, and Dewey defeats Truman.

-- (@ .), November 06, 2000.

Not so fast Bub. 100 trials? Try a million.

"Columbia University professors Robert Erikson and Karl Sigman issued an analysis showing Gore with an 85 percent chance of winning a majority in the Electoral College.

"Using state polling data, Erikson and Sigman ran more than one million simulations to determine different outcomes. Gore averaged 282 electoral votes."

-- From Reuters (reuters@today.com), November 06, 2000.


Then again, it all depends on which simulations you look at...

Columbia University professors Robert Erikson and Karl Sigman issued an analysis showing Gore with an 85 percent chance of winning a majority in the Electoral College.

Using state polling data, Erikson and Sigman ran more than one million simulations to determine different outcomes. Gore averaged 282 electoral votes.

-- (hmm@hmm.hmm), November 06, 2000.


Whoops, posted at the same time.

-- (hmm@hmm.hmm), November 06, 2000.


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