Bush Numbers Up 48% to Gores 41% Overnight.

greenspun.com : LUSENET : TB2K spinoff uncensored : One Thread

-- Ain't Gonna Happen (Not Here Not@ever.com), November 05, 2000


Wrong again, but keep trying.

Saturday November 4 6:41 PM ET Bush Lead Down to Two Points in Reuters/MSNBC Poll

By Alan Elsner, Political Correspondent

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - Republican George W. Bush (news - web sites)'s lead over Democrat Al Gore (news - web sites) fell to two percentage points in Saturday's Reuters/MSNBC national tracking poll, and six key battleground states remained too close to call.

The national survey of around 1,200 voters likely to take part in Tuesday's election, conducted Thursday through Saturday by pollster John Zogby, found the Texas governor with 46 percent and the vice president with 44 percent -- a two-point pickup for Gore in the past 24 hours.

Gore cut Bush's lead in half in the 24 hours following the disclosure that Bush was arrested for drunken driving in 1976. However, the race has swung back and forth repeatedly in the past two months so it was unclear how much the publicity surrounding the incident had affected voters.

Green Party nominee Ralph Nader (news - web sites) polled 5 percent; Reform Party candidate Pat Buchanan (news - web sites) stayed at 1 percent; Libertarian Party candidate Harry Browne (news - web sites) also polled 1 percent and 3 percent remained undecided.

The race was well within the statistical margin of error of plus or minus three percentage points. A candidate would have to be more than six points in the lead to be outside that zone of uncertainty -- something neither man has achieved since the poll began on Sept. 29.

``The national race is tightening, possibly following a day of discussion of Bush's driving under the influence of alcohol,'' said Zogby.

``One key factor to watch in the next three days is whether the Nader vote holds up. One in four Nader supporters say they may yet change their votes,'' he said. KEY STATES UP FOR GRABS

Separate polls of around 600 likely voters in each of nine key battleground states showed a totally unpredictable election. Bush made a charge in the crucial state of Florida, cutting Gore's lead to a single point, and overtook Gore in Wisconsin. But Gore drew level with Bush in his home state of Tennessee and stretched his small advantage in Washington.

Gore seemed securely ahead in Michigan and Illinois while Bush seemed safe in Ohio. But Bush's two-point lead in Missouri and Gore's two-point edge in Pennsylvania meant those states were too close to call.

These state polls had statistical margins of error of plus or minus four points.

In total, 153 votes in the Electoral College are up for grabs in those nine states. At the moment according to these polls, Gore would win 99 and Bush would take 43 of those votes. Tennessee's 11 remained up for grabs.

A total of 270 electoral votes are needed to be elected president. Most analysts believe both candidates have definitely secured about 200, leaving some 138 to be fought over that will decide the election.

Also Close In House Struggle

In the equally tight race for the House of Representatives, voters in the national poll preferred the Democrats by one point. The Democrats need a net gain of seven seats to regain control from the Republicans.

Several tight Senate races also showed movement in the past 24 hours.

-- In New York, Democratic first lady Hillary Rodham Clinton (news - web sites) held a four-point lead over Republican Rick Lazio (news - web sites), 49 percent to 45 percent, a three-point pickup for Lazio since Friday's poll.

-- In Missouri, the late Gov. Mel Carnahan (news - web sites), whose wife says she would serve in his place if he won, regained a slight lead over Republican Sen. John Ashcroft 47-46 percent. Carnahan was killed in a plane crash on Oct. 16 but his name remains on the ballot.

-- In Florida, Democrat Bill Nelson's lead over Republican Bill McCollum stood at 44 percent to 39 percent.

-- In Washington state, Republican Sen. Slade Gorton held a slim lead over Democrat Maria Cantwell, 47 percent to 45 percent.

-- In Michigan, Democrat Debbie Stabenow and Republican Sen. Spencer Abraham were tied on 45 percent. Stabenow had led for the past four days.

Democrats need to pick up five seats to regain the majority in the Senate.

In the national presidential poll, Bush was gaining the support of 88 percent of Republicans but Gore was backed by only 79 percent of Democrats. The vice president could even the race if more of his own party came home.

Men backed Bush by 19 points; women preferred Gore by a 12-point margin as the electorate continued to show a substantial gender gap.

Bush led among whites by 53 percent to 37 percent while Gore was ahead among Hispanics and blacks.

Reuters and MSNBC will release a new poll at 6:30 p.m. EST on Sunday and Monday and one final poll at 7 a.m. EST on Election Day.

-- (make.that@graph.yourself?), November 05, 2000.


I'm wondering where you got that graph, myself. Fox has the candidates tied in the National Poll now, Zogby has Bush up by 2, as does the Washington Post.

-- Anita (Anita_S3@hotmail.com), November 05, 2000.

Poll came from here

-- reading the source (helping@hand.here), November 05, 2000.

Anita, The chart is from Rasmussen's Portrait of America poll, I've been including it in my "pollwatch" threads. Its been the most consistent of all the polls with the largest samples.

-- David (David@bzn.com), November 05, 2000.

More opinion polling nonsense from right before the election.

-- Brian McLaughlin (brianm@ims.com), November 08, 2000.

Moderation questions? read the FAQ