Presidential Election - The Electoral College Factor - Links and Discussiongreenspun.com : LUSENET : TB2K spinoff uncensored : One Thread
Here's a link to several articles concerning the factor the Electoral College may play in this presidential election. I especially recommend the LA times article:
The Electoral College Scenario
The LA times article indicates that based on calculations by a couple of professors (using recent poll data), that for a popular vote margin greater than 2%, the electoral college would not be a factor and vice versa).
I heard a campaign strategist say today that a popular vote margin over 1/2% would negate the electoral college factor. Rasmussen (Portrait of America) puts it at around 2%.
That is why over the past few weeks I have tracked the popular vote polls. The daily polls of the "battleground" states is quite volatile, and IMHO nowhere near as accurate at forcasting the election outcome based on multiple poles and trends. That is why I posted my prediction of a Bush win by 4% last week (I will provide my final prediction tommorrow in order to get the percentages as close as possible, the outcome is not in doubt). That is also why I have been posting the latest poll results, so you can see any trends for yourselves and make your own judgements.
-- David (David@bzn.com), November 04, 2000
When 70M voters in Wyoming get the same one electoral college vote as 185M voters in California it seems wierd. Right now it doesn't bother me cause I'm a republican.
-- Carlos (firstname.lastname@example.org), November 05, 2000.
After viewing the electoral college trends for months now, I put my final predications on Poole's Roost on Nov 02: I don't pay attention to the National polls, although I had read the LA Times article.. The state polls determine the outcome of the electoral college. Although under no compulsion to adhere to the state polls, traditionally, the electorates have adhered to the state polls to reinsure their own reelection.
Thursday, 02-Nov-00 16:16:33 22.214.171.124 writes: I just don't see how Gore can lose this one.
Here's my breakdown [including my "not sures"]:
Bush: AL(9), AK(3), AZ(8), CO(8), GA(13), ID(4), IN(12), KS(6), LA (9), MS(7), MT(3), NE(5), NC(14), ND(3), OH(21), OK(8), OR(7), SC(8), SD(3), TX(32), UT(5), VA(13), WV(5), WY(3), KY(8).
If I made no typos or omissions, that should total 217 electoral college votes with 25 states. If It doesn't add up to that, let me know.
Just because I'm a pinko-commie liberal, I give all my not-sures to Gore. You can subtract the states with which you disagree and add them to Bush. Actually, I'm not sure about Oregon, but I gave it to Bush.
Gore: AR(6) - I don't think Bill will let this state go to to Bush, but if you disagree, put it in the Bush count. CA(54), CT(8), DE(3), DC(3), FL(25), HI(4), IA(7) - one poll had Iowa leaning toward Bush lately, but *I* don't buy it. IL(22), ME(4) - Maine's another one that's had one poll stating the guys were tied, but I don't buy that one either. MD(10), MA(12), MI(18), MN(10) - I'm not really sure about Minnesota. It could go either way, IMO. MO(11) - Missouri is another one, but I think it will go for Gore. NV(4) - Nevada's a pretty shakey state, but nobody cares much about 4 electoral votes. NH (4), NJ(15), NM(5) - Nobody cares much about New Mexico either, but I think it could go for Gore. NY(33), PA(23), TN(11) - I know Zogby had this one for Bush, but I don't think TN will go against Gore. WA(11) - Washington state has been shakey lately, but I think it will turn to Gore at the 11th hour. WI(11) - There's talk of Nader preventing Gore from winning Wisconsin, but I don't believe it. VT(3), RI(4).
If I made no typos or omissions, that should total 321 electoral votes and 26 states [well, you know...including DC.]
Other political pundits [heh...as though *I* were a political pundit] have different forecasts, outlined here. Some are more conservative, and some [Peggy Noonan] wildly demonstrate their partisanship.
-- Anita (Anita_S3@hotmail.com), November 05, 2000.
Great link, thanks Anita. Here's a new article on the electoral race that may be of interest (from the Washington Post):
Two days to go, burden is on Gore
-- David (David@bzn.com), November 05, 2000.
I'm a republican too. EVen though im sending this 1 year aftr the election, I just thought that i should clarify some stuff for u. (did report on electoral college.) The college favors the rep much more than the democrat. U did a good job predicting the results. One thing about california-the state govt changed from majority rep-dem in 1990-that is why it is now a solid democratic state. New mexico is now considered to be a strong democratic state. Most of the mountain states and plain states are solid republican. The northeast (except for penn, NH, Maine and NJ which are swingers are democratic victories. The main swing states that tend to decide close elections are illinois, (now more democratic), Missouri, iowa (bush shouldn't have lost), Wisconsin (toss up) Arkansas, Oregon, Florida,Nevada and Colorado(towards rep). It is possible however that with 3rd party candidates like perot or nader that there can be surprises. 1992Montana-D, Colorado, Nevada 1996-ArizonaDem in 92 and 96, the college doesn't show but bush and dole were killed. they didn't carry any swing states. However, u can see how the map favors rep anyway because they both got a large number of votes. Prediction 2004-If Bin Laden is found, Bush will win in a landslide. He'll carry every state except for DC, Minnesota, and Massachusetts. He'll even have a shot at New York (for the obvious reasons ) and a slim shot at california. Let's hope though that he doesnt blow it like bush sr did in 91-92. Hope this helps, write me with any questions.
-- SJ Goldhagen (email@example.com), December 22, 2001.