China Tiptoes Around U.S. Elections, But Leans Toward Gore

BEIJING, Oct 27, 2000 -- (Agence France Presse) China would prefer Al Gore to win next month's presidential elections in the United States because of fears George W. Bush will take a harder line on Taiwan and a U.S. National Missile Defense (NMD), analysts say.

While Beijing has been at pains to maintain a neutral stance in public, its strident criticism of any American interference in Taiwan constantly hovers over Sino-U.S. relations.

The Republican Party and its candidate Bush have in the past been critical of the current administration's engagement of China, seeing in Beijing a strategic rival rather than a partner.

"George Bush Jr.'s position on Washington's China policy is based on the belief that China is the main rival of the United States," Jiang Lingfei and Fu Tao wrote in this month's Beijing Review.

The pair are leading experts at China's National Defense University, at the heart of China's military strategy, and their comments were viewed as representing Beijing's fears ahead of the November 7 polls.

If Bush wins next month's vote he would undermine the "one China" policy -- which encapsulates Beijing's claim of sovereignty over Taiwan -- destabilize the global balance of power by deploying the NMD and restart the Cold War, the pair wrote.

This month's White Paper on Defense reiterated Beijing's determination to go to war if Taiwan declared independence.

China has also repeatedly and vociferously voiced its opposition to the NMD, which it fears could also spawn a Theatre Missile Defense (TMD) to protect East Asia including Taiwan.

"China's approach to NMD is principled, especially if it appears to be aimed at China or Taiwan, then the Chinese government will take stronger opposition to it," Jia Qingguo, international studies professor at Beijing University, told AFP.

The government prefers Democratic Party candidate Vice President Gore's moderate position on Taiwan to Bush's "harder" policy that China believes would place Taiwan under TMD, he said.

If successfully developed, the NMD will allow the United States to shoot down incoming ballistic missiles and its untried and unproven technology would form the basis for the TMD.

Jia also said Beijing would be wary of "new or extreme policies" that tend to come into play when a new government wins election and tries to fulfil its campaign promises.

"From past experience, China prefers Al Gore. We have always had an incumbent policy because America's China policy is always more consistent when the incumbent party wins," he said.

However Bob Broadfoot, who runs the Hong Kong-based Political and Economic Risk Consultancy, said that for Beijing there is a far smaller "range of uncertainty" in this year's election compared to 1992 when the Democrats won the presidency for the first time in 14 years.

"They know Bush quite well, not only because of his father (former U.S. President George Bush), who was a diplomatic consular in Beijing, but they also know his advisors like (vice presidential candidate) Dick Cheney," Broadfoot said.

"The Chinese are confident that the (U.S.) policies vis-a-vis their priorities, like Taiwan, North Korea, the Falun Gong and the WTO are not going to change either way."

Both Jia and Broadfoot noted China has kept a low profile in the pre-election campaigning.

"China has played a quieter role than before in this year's campaign and this reflects a more rational and stable China policy," Jia said.

Broadfoot said U.S. President Bill Clinton's postponement of a decision on deploying the NMD and a decision on arms sales to Taiwan has worked to remove China from the election issues. ((c) 2000 Agence France Presse)

http://www.insidechina.com/news.php3?id=214166§ion=default

-- Ain't Gonna Happen (Not Here Not@ever.com), October 30, 2000

Answers

"GASP"???

You would prefer to go to war with China than to have a peaceful relationship?

Mankind has been struggling for peace for thousands of years, don't you think it is about time grow up and make it our reality?

-- John Lennon (give@peace.a.chance), October 30, 2000.

AFAIK for the past few decades, Communist Chinese and USSR leaders who expressed any preference about a U.S. presidential election outcome have preferred continuity (i.e., reelection of incumbent or election of same-party candidate, regardless of which party it was).

My understanding is that the Communist leaders (and maybe the post-Communist Russians, too) generally preferred to continue relating to the U.S. within an existing established political framework rather than have to start over with a President of differing views. After all, having a political opposition peacefully take over the reins of government is not exactly familiar to a Communist politician.

So, when you look at it from the Chinese point of view, you'd rather continue dealing eith the incumbent party, whichever one it is, than cope with what looks to you like a rather scary mini-revolution.

-- No Spam Please (nos_pam_please@hotmail.com), October 30, 2000.

At least the Chi-Com endorsement is an honest admission of their interest in seeing the Clinton/Gore years continue. Guess they haven't stolen or purchased all our secrets yet. 4/8 years of Gore oughta do it.

-- Blueridge (Back@Last.com), October 30, 2000.

"4/8 years of Gore oughta do it."

I sure hope so. If they feel that are capable of defending themselves, we can finally establish a mutually beneficial relationship of peace and prosperity for all, instead of making them continue to live in fear that we might blow them off the face of the Earth.

-- (I dream @ of. peace), October 31, 2000.

Yeah, you are dreaming alright. China fears being blown off the map by the US because we have done it so often in the past. Entire regions of the world are nuke wastelands because we in the USA are a war mongering nation.

-- Uncle Deedah (unkeed@yahoo.com), October 31, 2000.

Psssst...hey Unk, take a look at this. You might want to put your brain in gear before you run your mouth....

China Prepares U.S. War Scenarios

By John Leicester Associated Press Writer Sunday, Oct. 22, 2000; 12:28 p.m. EDT

BEIJING BB In word and deed B namely its biggest military show in 35 years B China has made clear that it views the United States as potential enemy No.1.

Besides blowing up targets, test-firing missiles and driving tanks, the military displays at four land and sea sites in northern China in the middle of this month proved new capabilities to attack stealth warplanes and cruise missiles, state media reported.

Meanwhile, a Chinese defense policy paper issued last Monday once again raised threats of force against Taiwan and pointed to the United States as chief troublemaker.

Should Beijing's communist leaders order the People's Liberation Army to recover the island that split from China 51 years ago, Chinese generals are planning against expected U.S. military intervention.

"Do they prepare against the United States? My answer is very clear: yes," said Yan Xuetong, an expert in international security at Beijing's prestigious Tsinghua University.

Yan believes war with Taiwan is inevitable. Others are less pessimistic. In a report Thursday, the London-based International Institute for Strategic Studies said China is preoccupied this year with domestic issues, among them preparing to enter the World Trade Organization. It forecast only "a remote possibility" of confrontation over Taiwan.

Moreover, China-U.S. relations have improved this year and their militaries have expanded contact through reciprocal ship visits and trips by Chinese officers to the United States.

Beijing itself says it wants to peacefully recover Taiwan through negotiations B a goal repeated in the defense policy paper.

But talks are stalemated, and the paper said the situation "is complicated and grim." It reiterated that China would "adopt all drastic measures possible, including the use of force" if Taiwan formally splits from China or continues indefinitely to refuse to negotiate unification.

China's generals have to assume an attack on democratic, capitalist Taiwan might provoke an American military response. That is why they are preparing for the worst.

Chinese fears were sharpened by NATO's air war on Yugoslavia last year to protect ethnic Albanians in Kosovo. Beijing saw unsettling parallels with its own restive minority regions, like Tibet, and felt NATO's intervention on human rights grounds set a dangerous precedent for meddling over Taiwan.

The scenario seems highly dubious right now. Unlike Yugoslavia, such a conflict could at worst go nuclear, and even if it didn't, it could wipe out U.S.-China trade worth nearly $95 billion last year, according to U.S. figures, and trigger global economic catastrophe.

Still, Chinese suspicions have been heightened by Washington's efforts to develop anti-missile shields, by congressional attempts to expand military ties with Taiwan, and by continued U.S. arms sales to the island. Yan said the Pentagon was moving more submarines to the Pacific and stockpiling cruise missiles on the Pacific island of Guam.

What should China's leaders conclude from that? "That the U.S. military has prepared for war against China," Yan insisted.

The Chinese defense paper was peppered with criticisms of the United States, among them that U.S. support has emboldened Taiwan's anti-China camp.

With prospects for a peaceful unification of Taiwan and China "seriously imperiled" and because of "hegemonism and power politics" B Beijing's code words for U.S. meddling B "China will have to enhance its capability to defend its sovereignty and security by military means," said the paper.

But it also sought to allay foreign concerns by saying the military buildup was "purely for self-defense," and that this year's defense budget of $14.6 billion is just 5 percent of Washington's. Overseas analysts, however, believe China spends up to five times more than it says it does.

The Gulf War shocked Beijing by exposing its technological inferiority. It has since focused attention on the importance of air power in modern wars. Military experts say Chinese generals have studied how Yugoslav forces hid equipment from NATO attacks, have installed Russian-made surface-to-air missiles on the coast opposite Taiwan, and have improved air defenses around big cities.

But analysts say the Chinese military would be hard-pressed to take Taiwan, and lags far behind the United States.

"The gap is enormous. They're just not in the same league," said Robert Karniol, Asia-Pacific editor for Jane's Defense Weekly.

-- (U.S.@world.bully), October 31, 2000.

Uncle Deedah wrote:

Yeah, you are dreaming alright. China fears being blown off the map by the US because we have done it so often in the past. Entire regions of the world are nuke wastelands because we in the USA are a war mongering nation.

You know what's sad? I can't tell whether you're being serious or sarcastic.

-- LevelHead (tb2ksu@myrmidon.freeuk.com), November 01, 2000.