Presidential Election - Like Y2K, its time to put your predictions on the line : LUSENET : TB2K spinoff uncensored : One Thread

Plenty of polls out there, they are starting to flat line, and time is short. Time to pick the winner.

Like Y2K, I've analyzed the data, and have come to a certainty as to the results. Unlike Y2K, I'm not directly involved except as a voter, however my ability to properly analyze the data presented in numerous polls is excellent. I was 100% correct in my predictions for Y2K, my accuracy for this election will be the same.

Bush will win by at least 4% over Gore. I will give a more detailed breakdown at a later time.

Anyone else willing to put their predictions out now?

-- FactFinder (, October 29, 2000


I'll double your bet...

Gore by at least 8%

-- (Shrubya@sleazy.scumbag), October 29, 2000.

I already gave my predictions in a thread last week. I think Gore will win, but I don't have a feel for the exact electoral college vote. I'm guessing most of the following states: Washington, California, Minnesota, Iowa, Illinois, Michigan, Tennessee, Missouri, Wisconsin, Florida, Nevada, Oregon, New York and all the states northeast of NY, and possibly even Pennsylvania. Oh...forgot Hawaii and D.C. I feel like I forgot some states, but they're not flowing to my fingertips.

-- Anita (, October 29, 2000.

Gore has DC and 12 states: CA, CT, DE, HI, IL, MA, MD, ME, NJ, NY, RI, VT

-- (eastcoast@gets.firstvote), October 29, 2000.

Bush in a runaway that boosts house pubs by 5.

-- Carlos (, October 29, 2000.

Bush by popular vote and Gore by the Electoral College. Gore by default...

-- Uncle Bob (, October 29, 2000.

Anita, Not sure how you got Tennessee on your list, Bush has had the lead there, and it has widened to 11% in the latest Zogby poll (you won't find it in the media yet). Pennsylvania and Tennessee will both go for Bush. Florida is showing Gore, but I will wait a few more days to call it, and will call the rest of the states as well.

-- David (, October 29, 2000.


Crystal ball.


You had to state something reflective of your gambling nature. [In other words, I have NO IDEA what that means.] Then again, I didn't understand what you were doing half the time in LV either.

-- Anita (, October 29, 2000.

Sorry, That wasn't the latest data, the latest for Bush in Tennessee is 9% according to: Latest Zogby poll data for states

Keep in mind this is Zogby, a good poll, but not the best. The actual results will be more between Zogby, POA, and Battleground on the low end and Gallup on the high end.

-- David (, October 29, 2000.

This is a guess but it's also a preference. My sense is that the mo-mo is on Bush's side. I predict Bush will win in a close election. Nader may be the difference.

-- Lars (, October 29, 2000.


You wern't paying attention there either, Dear.

-- Carlos (, October 29, 2000.


Truth is, gambling never interested me, although I DID toss some quarters and nickels into some slots on Sunday night, just to relieve the weight in my purse. The damn machines started giving them back to me and I thought, "What's the sense of THIS?"

-- Anita (, October 29, 2000.


The ACTUAL results will be revealed on November 8th, when we learn what people actually DID versus what they told the polls they would do.

-- Anita (, October 29, 2000.

Since there is no "election", I can say with confidence that Bush is ALREADY the next leader of the USA.

The President is installed from either party; there is a simple pattern that reveals itself, if you know were to look. Here is a hint: Bush acted "pissed" when it looked like Perot stole enough votes to get Klinton in without a majority...Gore is about to experience the same thing because of Nader (or so TPTB want people to think).

Its all one big ruse, people.

-- Amused (, October 30, 2000.

>> ...there is a simple pattern that reveals itself, if you know were to look. <<

So, why not tell us where to look so that we will see the simple pattern. Why hint around? Why not use an anonymizer and tell us your whole case?

If you think we all have the time to sift through every piece of information on the planet, you are just plain nuts. Make your case. We don't have time for stupid hints.

-- Brian McLaughlin (, October 30, 2000.

Well, since Bush and Cheney both took the day off today, in the heat of the finals of the closest contest in forty years, clearly they're confident they've got the election bagged. If they thought there was even a hint of losing, they'd be out there pounding the pavement.

-- Celia Thaxter (, October 30, 2000.

My prediction:

The American public loses again,the aristocracy remains intact.

-- capnfun (, October 30, 2000.

"Well, since Bush and Cheney both took the day off today, in the heat of the finals of the closest contest in forty years, clearly they're confident they've got the election bagged. If they thought there was even a hint of losing, they'd be out there pounding the pavement."

That is one way of looking at it I guess. I was thinking the opposite, that Bush isn't bothering to campaign because the decision has been made to put Gore in, and Gore is more or less celebrating.

-- (NWO@chose.gore), October 30, 2000.

I think it will be a 7-8 on a scale of 10. Economic collapse by period 4-5 2001. Embedded chips in oil sector and corrupt data in the financial sector will bring the market down. Bush/Lieberman ticket tries to calm fears, but Hillary names Monica as her secretary of finance and brings calm to Billy. All in all, 2001 shaping up as year of the dog. All ye prepped???????????

-- momma (, October 30, 2000.

Bush wins by 8 percentage points in the national polls. The Electoral vote will be seemingly much closer, with Bush winning by 50 votes. (That inlcudes him winning Florida).

-- Buster Collins (, October 30, 2000.

Gore 37 Bush 34 in double overtime

lieberman kicks a field goal with 15 seconds left in the second overtime.

-- FutureShock (gray@matter.think), October 30, 2000.

I predict that, however small the ultimate margin of victory might be, the winner will claim a mandate from the people.

If Bush wins with less than 50% of the popular vote, but an electoral college margin greater than 30 electoral vote, his spin doctors will portray it as a landslide.

If Gore squeaks it out, the spin will be that the people have rejected the tired old Republican agenda, but Gore will end up implementing the Republican agenda anyway, while claiming it as his own.

-- Brian McLaughlin (, October 30, 2000.

I'm going to hold with what I wrote earlier: our next president will be Gore. I looked over some of the numbers at lunch, and a more logical guesstimate would be Bush, but I keep thinking about all those 30- and 40-something women who are hardline pro choice voters, as well as all those #$%& illegal workers that Clinton used the last time to carry him to victory.

I'll repeat: I don't like either Bush or Prince Albert. This is just my guess as to how it'll go.

-- (, October 30, 2000.

Through the past weekend, George W. Bush extended his lead in the Gallup Aggregate Poll over the last 30 days. As of Monday, October 30, Bush now leads Gore nationally 46.9% to 43.5%. This 3.4 percentage lead complements the Reuters/Zogby Poll showing Bush with a 3-point edge, along with other polls showing the Texas governer out in front.

The aggregate polling data, known as GAP and compiled by CollinsCount, shows that if all Gallup participants over the last 30 days stayed true to their choice of candidate, Bush would lead Gore by 3.4 points. It is the contention of CollinsCount that Gallup has not been weighting polls with regard to participants political profiles. This claim is supported by Ed Goeas, of Voter.Com's Battleground Poll, who says that on a given night, Gallup could interview far more Republicans than Democrats, and vice-versa, which explains the swings in their day-to-day numbers.

The GAP count of all Gallup polling data starting in mid-August, however, would give us a clearer picture of the national race, as it's likely voter volatility is not as high as projected. The GAP then, reflects the results of nearly 40,000 participants over a three month period, with particular weighting to the last 30 days.

Here's the important number. In order to draw even with Bush in the GAP Count over the remaining eight days before the election, Gore would now need to outpace Bush by 12.7% in each of the remaining daily tracking polls.

-- Buster Collins (, October 30, 2000.

Gloria Rivera of the Workers World Party will be our next president. Sure she is not even showing up in the national polls, but don't be fooled. Get ready for a 24/7 Workers World Party Blitz of the airwaves.

-- butt nugget (, October 30, 2000.

I've felt the Vice President would win ever since George W. won the Republican nomination. Since I have never in my life had my fingers on the pulse of the nation, I'd bet my last toothpick George W. will win.

These aren't just any toothpicks, BTW. They are infused with tea tree oil. Very valuable commodity.

-- Bingo1 (, October 31, 2000.

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