Gore Takes Three-Point Lead

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"George W. Bush has not lost the momentum, nor has he lost the lead in the polls, nor are the polls dead even, nor is the race a dead heat."

Rush Limbaugh, October 24


A few hours later...

Tuesday October 24 6:24 PM ET Gore Takes Three-Point Lead in Reuters/MSNBC Poll

By Alan Elsner, Political Correspondent

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - Democrat Al Gore has sprung back into a three-percentage-point lead over Republican George W. Bush in the seesaw U.S. presidential race, the Reuters/MSNBC daily tracking poll said on Tuesday.

It was the vice president's first lead in the daily poll since Oct. 9 and came two weeks before the Nov. 7 election. Gore has made up four points in the past four days, while Bush, the governor of Texas, has lost three points.

In the previous poll released early on Tuesday, Bush led Gore by two percentage points.

The survey of 1,206 likely voters, conducted by pollster John Zogby from Sunday afternoon through Tuesday afternoon, found Gore with 45 percent; Bush with 42 percent; Green Party nominee Ralph Nader with 4 percent; Reform Party candidate Pat Buchanan with 1 percent and the rest undecided.

The race remained within the statistical margin of error of plus or minus three percentage points. A candidate would have to be more than six points in the lead to be outside that zone of uncertainty -- something neither man has achieved since the poll began on Sept. 29.

There did not appear to be any clear reason for the shift in momentum, except perhaps for the fact that the election is getting closer and voters may be focusing more on the choice.

``Gore had a big day and has won two of the last three days. Perhaps of great significance is that Gore now leads by 10 points among voters over 70, perhaps in response to some tough ads about Bush and Social Security,'' Zogby said.

'Race Is Not Over'

``It also looks like core Democrats are coming home. Nader had a particularly bad day. As for the key group of those earning $25,000 to $50,000 a year, it is now tied. This race is not over,'' the pollster said.

Gore's rise has been accompanied by a boost in support for Democrats in the battle for control of the House of Representatives. Voters now prefer the Democrats by five points, which would likely be enough for the party to pick up the seven seats they require to regain control from the Republicans.

When undecided voters were asked which way they leaned in the presidential race, they broke almost 3-to-1 for Gore.

Eighty-nine percent of respondents said they had definitely made up their minds. Forty-five percent had ruled out voting for Bush and 41 percent for Gore.

Gore led Bush by double digits in the East, while Bush led narrowly in the South and by seven points in the all-important Midwest region. Gore led by seven points in the West.

Gore's strength was among voters aged 24 or less and those aged 70 or more.

While Bush is winning the support of more than 82 percent of Republicans, Gore has in recent days increased his backing among Democrats to 81 percent. Independents were going 41-36 percent for the vice president.

Bush leads among white voters by 50 percent to 38 percent. But Gore is winning substantially among Hispanics and is taking 84 percent of the black vote. Bush leads among men by seven points; Gore's lead among women is 11 points.

-- Rush Sucks (ditto@ditto.megaditto), October 25, 2000


Gore ees not populare in barrio. Bush habla Espanol, Gore is elitist honky; gonna "take care" of us Indios.

-- (Pepe@pepper.pot), October 25, 2000.

Um, that's only one poll.

-- Buddy (buddydc@go.com), October 25, 2000.

One day up; one day down. This race is too close to call.


-- Not now, not like this (AgentSmith0110@aol.com), October 25, 2000.

Last night I heard a radio commentator on a large ABC affiliate out of San Fransisco say he'd heard on ABC news that the Green party was pulling their advertising from the LA area, so as not to hurt Gore's position. Can anyone out there confirm this?

When I did a quick search on the ABC news website, this is all I could turn up with the keywords:

'Nader Unswayed by Criticism Green Party Candidate to Campaign Through Battleground States'

http://more.abcnews.go.com/sections/politics/dailynews/naderpolitics_0 01024.html

"Asked Sunday whether he was concerned about drawing votes that could cause Gore to lose in California, Nader told the San Francisco Chronicle: BIf I was worried about that, I wouldnBt have run.B"

-- flora (***@__._), October 25, 2000.

Nader Backers Pull Ads in Calif.

-- (hmm@hmm.hmm), October 25, 2000.


-- Lars (lars@indy.net), October 25, 2000.

The five percent or higher that are supporting Nader in California have been doing so for some time. That measure will remain regardless of pulling ads. These are independent minded folk who decided they don't like Gore/Bush.

As for that Gore bounce, with USA Today reversing its tracks with another seven point swing, no one cannnot look at single day polling figures as a testament to a change in momentum. However, national polls historically have underestimated Republican turnout in past elections.

The undecideds may not count for much in this election afterall. There is a greater liklihood they will not vote at all then deciding who to vote for in the waning moments. One can conclude if this is true, then, that it will be the base voter turnout that determines the next president.

Bush's base has been energized for months. They can't wait to vote. Gore's has not. Can he turn it around in the last 10 days. Evidence shows there's an attempt to, with the vile NAACP "dragging ad." But this may backfire, once the base the ad is directed to realizes the NAACP prefers to appeal to their emotions rather than their intellect.

At any rate, I stand by my projection that while the national count may be close, the electoral college count won't. Unless there is a "November" surprise, Bush wins by 99 electoral votes.

-- Buster Collins (Hiway441@aol.com), October 26, 2000.

>> Bush's base has been energized for months. They can't wait to vote. Gore's has not. <<

I think you are seeing things quite clearly in this analysis.

This election does indicate to me, however, that the Republican base would enthusiastically vote for a bucket of warmed over hog jowls, if by some chance it won the nomination and repeated the correct formulas.

-- Brian McLaughlin (brianm@ims.com), October 26, 2000.

Setting the "hog jowl" comment aside, let's look at the new numbers in the Electoral College. Giving Gore California, Michigan, Minnesota, Pennsylvania and Washington, along with his solid states, Gore garners 244 electoral votes.

Bush comes away with Florida, Tennessee, Minnesota and states leaning his way as he totals 294. So despite the new USA Today poll showing Bush's national lead increasing, I now see Bush winning by 50 electoral votes. That's down from my early 99 vote margin.

It's a call for Flordia at this point. Most analysis leans towards a Bush win but it's interesting to note that should Gore capture Florida this vote tally would change from 294-254 for Bush to an even 269-269. Al things being equal, then, Florida is key.

-- Buster Collins (Hiway441@aol.com), October 26, 2000.

CNN/USA Today/Gallup Polling to date has released 50 daily tracking polls on the Presidential race starting August 18. These polls have shown support for the two candidates fluctuating wildly, with Al Gore leading by as many as ten points, 51-41, over George W. Bush, only to have Bush leading two days later, 47-46.

In the course of three days, BushBs support dismantled GoreBs 11-point pre-debates lead, flipping the numbers from 51-40 for Gore to 49-41 for Bush. Bush maintained that lead for less than a week before Gore overtook him again.

In the last two days Bush has once again jumped to a seven- point lead. Are the swings recorded in these daily tracking polls an accurate reflection of voter volatility, or are they a simple snapshot of a small segment of voters?

If you take the aggregate of the last 50 releases of GallupBs polling data and determine an average, the results mirror the less rambunctious polls like Reuters/MSNBC/Zogby, which shows Gore presently with at two-point lead. The aggregate average from Gallup for Gore is 45.5% while the average over the 50 polling dates for Bush is 45.2%.

Conventional wisdom is the race is that tight. But a closer examination of the numbers show that when weighing the last 25 polling dates, the popular vote begins to break for Bush. From that count, Bush leads Gore 46.6% to 43.7%.

In theory, and itBs a helpful reminder that all polling is theoretical, margins of error are less a factor in aggregate polling. Considering Gallup polls up to 250 people per night, the aggregate measure takes into account the views of nearly 12,500 voters. Therefore BushBs lead in the last half of polling is now significant.

To conclude, in order for Gore to catch Bush in the remaining 11 polling days before the election, he would need to outscore Bush by an average of 6.5 points per day. This is not a likely scenario.

-- Buster Collins (Hiway441@aol.com), October 27, 2000.


I think Gore will win, and I can't give a margin on electoral votes. That's MY prediction...worth the money you paid to read it. Since I'm playing "psychic hotline", I'll predict Gore wins in 90% of the following: California, Washington, Oregon, Nevada, Florida, Tennessee, Arkansas, Illinois, Michigan, Wisconsin, Minnesota, Iowa, Hawaii, D.C., and all states northeast of Pennsylvania, possibly including Pennsylvania.

Is there a prize for the one who's right?

-- Anita (Anita_S3@hotmail.com), October 27, 2000.

Opinion polls won't change my vote. There is a tiny chance that the real polling on election day could tip me from Nader to Gore. But only a tiny chance. I'd hate to wake up on Wednesday kicking myself for panicking into the Gore column. Things would have to look like a fingertip cliffhanger at 9:30pm EST. Even then, I'd bite my lip hard enough to draw blood.

-- Brian McLaughlin (brianm@ims.com), October 27, 2000.

I think what will put Gore over the top in the coming days will be the return of Bill Clinton. For obvious reasons, and calculated I feel by the Gore folks, has been Bill's absence in the race. The plan I beleive is to wait as long as possible and then use Bill. Any detractors will be lost in the noise of his return.

I believe this is/will change and we will once again hear these words from a one William Jefferson Clinton.

"Are you better off now than you were eight years ago under his Father?" "We have built a strong economy. We have cut the deficit. Inflation is low and so is unemployment due to the zillions of jobs we caring democrats have created. Do we as a nation want this to end? Do we want to take a RIGHT turn on the clear highspeed, high-tech road we have built the last eight years? Do we want to go back? I know I don't and I know most of you don't. I support Albert, he will continue the goodtimes and will continue building the future we can all be proud of."

Anyhow you get the jist of it. I believe Bill will return. He has waited, as by the time he resurfaces the Lier junk will be dismissed by most as simply the Republicans beating a dead-carcass cause they be losing, even if they have time to do so.

-- Doc Paulie (fannybubbles@usa.net), October 27, 2000.

Clinton's entrance into the campaign will be a net zero. It probably will entergize the Deomcractic base but it will mobilize the Republican base as well. The undecideds probably won't factor in this election as much as traditional base turnout. To that, I believe Republicans have the advantage.

As for "are you better off now", that's a non-starter. The real question is will be better off four years from now. If Gore wins, he will increase the size of government regulations, try to bankrupt the firearms industry, set policy to limit your automobile choices.

He will not use the Presidency as a bully pulpit to reduce the number of abortions for fear of alienating the NOW base, and his "lockbox" proposal for Social Security will cause it to wither on the vine.

(It's an instructive reminder that Social Security is technically called, Supplemental Social Security).

And while I'm not convinced we'll see an across the board tax cut of any significance under Bush, at least he recgonizes the primary principle of tax cuts is to control government spending.

Gore would create more entitlements with the surplus. This puts him in a sticky position should these projected surpluses turn out not to be true. Since he has stated repeatedly he would balance the budget every year, Gore would be faced with the sticky situation of cutting back on some new programs or raising taxes to make the numbers balance. Neither would be popular.

So, no, I don't think we'll be better off four years from now under Gore.

-- Buster Collins (Hiway441@aol.com), October 27, 2000.

In the aggregate USA Today/CNN count as of Friday, Oct. 27, George W. Bush has overtaken Al Gore in the total average of the 51 daily tracking polls. With todays 52-39 posting favoring Bush, he now leads Gore 45.7% to 45.3% four counts since August 12.

More importantly, BushBs lead in the last month (26 polling days) has now increased to 46.8% to GoreBs 43.5%. Recalling that Gore would need to outpoll Bush by more than six points per night to be square going to the voting both on Nov. 7, Gore now needs to outpace Bush by 8.5 points on average in the remaining 10 days to draw even.

Again, a three-point Bush lead with 10 days to go is well within the margins of other major tracking polls. Unless there is a bombshell dropped on the Bush campaign in the next week, the national popular vote is clearly going for Bush.

The Electoral College count is now the remaining question. In previous elections, the popular vote has generally been closer than the electoral vote. In part, this is by design. An evenly split national vote would weaken the winning candidate. A strong showing in the Electoral College is often seen as a countering agent. Though rarely able to produce a mandate on its own, a hundred-point plus win in the electoral count acts like the confirming view of a football instant replay. The count may be disputed at first only to find that upon closer review the result was right all along.

This year, however, the electoral vote may be closer than the popular vote. Bush will probably garner a significant amount of votes in the Democratic stronghold states Gore is still likely to win, thus tilting the national margin even higher for Bush. Maybe, just maybe, that margin will be in the 8-10 percent range. Presently, no national poll has Gore in the lead.

Narrow Gore victories, on the other hand, will play better in the College. So at this point, with 10 days to go, I call for a Bush victory by an Electoral College margin of as little as 50 to as much as 99. I donBt see it any higher.

-- Buster Collins (Hiway441@aol.com), October 27, 2000.

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