CPR: Todays New York Times says: IT'S THE REFINERIES STUPID!

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Snips from todays New York Times


For some time, supplies of crude oil have been rising, and refineries in the United States have been running nearly flat-out.


The larger supply of oil should normally have dampened prices more by now. But even operating flat-out, refineries have not managed to build extra inventory.


Since late summer, refineries have been playing catch-up.


To meet the strong demand for oil products, refineries have been operating at close to full capacity. But some will have to shut down this fall for routine but crucial maintenance. The American Petroleum Institute estimates that about 5 percent of the country's refining capacity will be affected by such breaks over the next month, further limiting the flow of heating oil.

"We're running 24 hours a day, seven days a week, and the wear- and-tear gets to a point that we can't run our equipment safely," said Jefferson F. Allen, president of the Tosco Corporation, which supplies about 15 percent of the Northeast's heating oil.


-- It's the Refinery's Stupid! (whadya@mean?.com), October 17, 2000






DUMMIES ........ITS ***OPEC*** NOT "the refineries" THAT CONTROL THE PRICING......JERKS!!!!!

-- cpr (buytexas@swbell.net), October 17, 2000.

cpr, I have always been under the impression that market movements in one day are insignificant, unless they represent a total capitulation of investor sentiment, like a dam breaking. Otherwise, you throw out the volatility of one day movements and look at established trend lines. Still looks like an upward trend to me.

You are saying the same types of things that gold bug Andy (not Andy Ray) always used to say about gold. He, too was deceived.

BTW, when did you decide that USING ALL CAPS WASN'T EMPHATIC ENOUGH and you had to go to big fonts and bold them?

-- Brian McLaughlin (brianm@ims.com), October 17, 2000.

Sorry for the unclosed tag.

-- Brian McLaughlin (brianm@ims.com), October 17, 2000.

OFF off bold begone, I say! [Peeks through his fingers...] Is it still there?

-- Brian McLaughlin (The Embarrased) (brianm@ims.com), October 17, 2000.

I don't see what the argument is about here. Prices are determined by supply and demand. OPEC exercises most control over ultimate supply of finished product, but clearly not TOTAL control. If refineries worldwide have all the crude oil they can refine, but their output cannot keep up with demand, then *while this situation lasts* the refineries are the actual bottleneck. OPEC cannot increase availability of refined product simply by increasing availability of raw product unless refining capacity exists to process more raw product. Right now, that capacity does not exist.

In the longer term, if it becomes economical to build more refining capacity OR if available capacity is idle for lack of crude, then OPEC becomes the bottleneck once again. OK, fine.

Brian has this syndrome nailed. Andy used to crow every time gold went up, and vanish whenever it went down. Paul Milne used to crow every time the market dipped, and ignore it when it rose. Now we have CPR crowing each time speculators think oil may fall in price, and he's nowhere to be seen when they think it may rise. For whatever fundamental reasons, in each case the long term trend was the opposite of the misimpression these fanatics were trying to portray. We can only wonder what it might be that so powerfully motivates such people to defy reality. Diet? Allergies? Brain damage? Wishful thinking?

-- Flint (flintc@mindspring.com), October 17, 2000.

Now we have CPR crowing each time speculators think oil may fall in price, and he's nowhere to be seen when they think it may rise.

BULL SHIT FLINT. I respond to every price change when the resident oil Hooples start to crow. I've been bearish at each TOP. Its the Zombies who vanish when prices go down. LIKE THE LAST 3 days. IN SHORT: FU.

-- cpr (buytexas@swbell.net), October 17, 2000.


I don't know who *else* you think you might be fooling. I suggest you do a quantitative analysis of your own posts. You just might notice a pattern.

Meanwhile, refining capacity does seem to represent a temporary bottleneck. You might comment on the cause and meaning of this, rather than bellow non sequiturs in giant boldface characters, eh? Do you suppose the depressed oil prices of the last few years caused refiners to postpone maintenance and/or new construction? Do you suppose they find OPEC too unpredictable to invest? Do you suppose the SUV boom has goosed demand more than expected?

You're the oil market expert. Tell us why this is happening and how long it will last and why. If we're all clueless dolts as you never tire of telling us, how about providing some clues for us instead?

-- Flint (flintc@mindspring.com), October 17, 2000.

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