October 15, 2000

A Colder, Snowier, Fuel-Burning Winter Ahead By THE NEW YORK TIMES

WASHINGTON, Oct. 14  Winter in the Northeast this year is expected to be colder and snowier than in recent years, the National Weather Service says, raising the prospect of significantly higher heating bills for consumers even as oil prices have already been rising.

In major cities across the region, temperatures are expected to drop two to five degrees below the average of the last three winters, which were unusually warm, the service said.

That drop could contribute to heating bills that are as much as 25 percent higher than last year for consumers of heating oil, and 45 percent higher for consumers of natural gas, says the Energy Information Administration, a branch of the Energy Department.

"What they are saying is the winter will be normal, and normal means a lot more demand for heating fuel because last winter was warm," said David Costello, an economist at the energy agency.

The weather service said temperatures in New York and Washington are expected to fall three degrees below the average of the last three winters, while in Boston they are expected to drop by two degrees. Philadelphia is likely to be five degrees colder this winter.

Mr. Costello estimated that the lower temperatures would cause an increase in demand for heating fuels of about 8 percent. He said that increase could push up prices significantly. "We're starting out with already low supplies," he said, so prices will be more responsive to an increase in demand.

In the case of heating oil, the energy agency expects that the greater demand will translate into a 16 percent increase in price, to $1.37 a gallon from $1.18 last winter for residents of the Northeast, who use more of it than people in other regions of the United States.

The price of natural gas is expected to be double what it was, or about $5 per thousand cubic feet.

Natural gas is the heating fuel of choice across the country, but the Northeast relies heavily on heating oil, more so than any other region.

Besides lower temperatures, the weather service predicted more storms and greater precipitation in the Northeast.

The weather is also expected to vary throughout the season more than it has in recent years, the weather service said.

"We expect considerable swings in temperature and precipitation," said Jack Kelly, director of the service.

The last three winters have set records for warm temperatures.

http://www.nytimes.com/2000/10/15/science/15WEAT.html

-- Martin Thompson (mthom1927@aol.com), October 15, 2000