Another opportunity for CPRgreenspun.com : LUSENET : TB2K spinoff uncensored : One Thread
I bought another gasoline call option on Friday: a 101 cent January strike. I expect gasoline to go WAY up before the end of December, as it will have to do for me to make out well on this transaction. I paid 100 points for this option, and will report my sale price when I sell it. Want to try betting against me again, CPR? You didn't do very well last time, if I recall correctly.
-- Sergeant Friday (firstname.lastname@example.org), October 08, 2000
why don't you go ---- yourself you y2k doom LOSER!!!!
-- (email@example.com), October 09, 2000.
Your gas is worse than your "logic". Your calls on Oct. would have been worthless on the last day. You should take all your money and put it where your mouth is. I don't gamble.
Interpretation: Price is below the moving average so the trend is down.
Additional Analysis: Market trend is DOWN.
Mov Avg 3 lines Indicator:
Note: In evaluating the short term, plot1 represents the fast moving average, and plot2 is the slow moving average. For the longer term analysis, plot2 is the fast moving average and plot3 is the slow moving average Conventional Interpretation - Short
Term: The market is bearish because the fast moving average is below the slow moving average. Additional Analysis -
Short Term: The market is EXTREMELY BEARISH. Everything in this indicator is pointing to lower prices: the fast average is below the slow average; the fast average is on a downward slope from the previous bar; the slow average is on a downward slope from the previous bar; and price is below the fast average and the slow average. Conventional Interpretation - Long
Term: The market is bearish because the fast moving average is below the slow moving average. Additional Analysis - Long
Term: The market is EXTREMELY BEARISH. Everything in this indicator is pointing to lower prices: the fast average is below the slow average; the fast average is on a downward slope from the previous bar; the slow average is on a downward slope from the previous bar; and price is below the fast average and the slow average.
Bollinger Bands Indicator: Conventional
Interpretation: The Bollinger Bands are indicating an oversold condition. An oversold reading occurs when the close is nearer to the bottom band than the top band.
Additional Analysis: The market is in oversold territory.
-- cpr (firstname.lastname@example.org), October 09, 2000.
YOU ....made a suckers bet unless there is a war or all the refineries close. GAS IS BELOW WHAT IT WAS IN ***MAY***,,,,,,,dumb Shit. In May-June you were betting with the charts in your favor, now they have ALL broken down technically and ONLY a fool buys into a Bear Market or Sells a Bull Market. Prudent investors stay out of those markets when they don't like either the fundamentals or the technicals or both. YOU ...GAMBLE.
Spot has been falling all summer long (as usual when driving "season" inventory is lowered.)
NOW the crude has broken down on the charts. And GAS follows crude. The only game left is "maybe" natural gas but that has to sell on a BTU basis to other fuels: diesal and heating oil.
Heating oil was driven by dealers, jobbers and disties trying to avoid stock high priced inventory because they knew that this was a temporary inventory shortage. However, they "had" to buy because they have to deliver in the N.E. and industrial from now on to March. Look at the prices for the Spring Contracts and make another bet.
-- cpr (email@example.com), October 09, 2000.
HEY CPR....TRY AGAIN!
North American natural gas market to enter winter with lowest gas level
Source: Business Wire
North American gas market to enter winter with lowest gas level 14-09-00 Assuming historical patterns for natural gas storage injections during the coming two months, the North American gas market is slated to enter this winter heating season with the lowest working gas level in a decade, according to Energy and Environmental Analysis. (EEA).
"If storage injections in September and October are equal to the 5-year average for those months, the US will enter the winter heating season with a little over 2.8 tcf of working gas in storage," said Bruce B. Henning, director at EEA. "This would be the lowest working gas level at the beginning of a heating season in this decade." In EEA's Pipeline Data Report (PDR) released, Henning adds that for the first time in recent history, a significant portion of the deficit in storage is in the east region, which is the major consuming region outside of Texas. "At the end of August, working gas in the east region is 90 bn cf below the 5-year average.
Oil Bounces; Recovering Some Losses After DOE Sells 30 million Barrels It Released From Nation's SPR
ENERGY Oil bounces back Posted Mon, 09 Oct 2000
US crude oil prices have bounced, recovering some of the losses incurred after the US Department of Energy (DOE) announced it had found buyers for all the 30 million barrels it is releasing from the nation's strategic reserves.
November crude on the New York Mercantile Exchange settled at $30.86 (R223.73) a barrel on Friday, up 33 cents on the day, and two cents higher than it ended last week.
The rebound was after a drop of 90 cents, or about 3%, on Thursday after the DOE announced that 11 oil companies would take the 30 million barrels of crude President Bill Clinton has ordered to be released from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR).
"Crude oil prices rebounded today now that the market has fully digested all of the bearish news out the last two weeks," said Thomas Blakeslee, analyst with Energy Merchant.
Two weeks ago, oil prices reached a post-Gulf War high of $37.80 (R274.05) a barrel before the Clinton administration stepped in to say the oil reserve would be tapped and Saudi Arabia's Crown Prince Abdullah said the world's largest oil producer would not allow prices to go sky-high.
Bracing for heating oil price jump, N.E. rethinks its reliance
By Beth Daley, Globe Staff, 10/9/2000
New Englanders have been warned before. Ever since the energy crisis of the 1970s, energy specialists said it was risky for them to rely so much on heating oil to stay warm. It's almost all imported, they said, and vulnerable to sudden price increases.
Yet, as residents brace for a second straight winter of high oil prices, New England remains more dependent on heating oil than almost anywhere else in the United States. The six states have less than 5 percent of the nation's population, but consume a whopping 25 percent of the heating oil that is used in the United States.
Consumers rarely ponder such reliance until times like these, when global politics and complex market economics promise to double last year's price for a warm winter night. Already, conservation cries reminiscent of former president Jimmy Carter's sweaters have returned, and energy exploration is a hot topic in the presidential race.
And tucked-away New Englanders, at the absolute end of any fuel supply line, are once again figuring out how to protect themselves from being squeezed the tightest by an energy crisis. If the rusting wood stoves and discarded solar panels from the last energy crunch are any hint, answers are not going to be easy to come by.
''We have problems,'' said Larry Chretien, executive director of Massachusetts Energy Consumers Alliance, a cooperative oil-buying group. The group was formerly called Boston Oil Consumers Alliance, but Chretien changed the name a month ago and started to buy other energy sources.
''We have to decide as a region how are we going to balance this equation of supply and demand,'' he said. ''And if nothing else, this price [jump] is a reminder that we should stick to what we decide this time, not abandon it like after the '70s.''
In the meantime, an early cold snap could wreak havoc on New England's meager oil reserves, less than a third of what they were last year at this time. Big oil wholesalers are holding off filling their tanks until supply increases and prices drop.
On Friday, the Energy Information Administration warned residents they should prepare for a 25 percent price increase this winter - and costs may go even higher if it's a cold one. Customers are taking the warning to heart: Thousands want tanks filled up now, while prices still hover around $1.30 a gallon.
''I'm feeling depressed about this season,'' said John Walsh, of John's Oil in Lynn, whose company delivers home-heating oil to about 9,000 homes. As he filled up his truck at Revere's Global Oil terminal Friday, Walsh said he was going to search the Internet to see where oil prices are going. ''I look at Russia, I look at Venezuela and the Middle Eastern countries. Everything plays into the price, and I want to make some good decisions,'' Walsh said.
Several things contributed to the high price of oil this year. Last year, the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries cut back on production shortly before the depressed Asian economy bounced back with demands for more oil. People getting rich in our own booming economy are building large houses that require more energy to heat. And sport utility vehicles are guzzling record rates of the same basic product found in heating tanks: Crude oil.
''Everyone was driving around in their SUVs this summer, and now they are wondering why we don't have heating oil,'' said Elisabeth Drake, associate director at the MIT Energy Laboratory. ''It's all linked. At some point we are going to have to get in a different mode of thinking about energy.''
For now, the state and federal governments are spending millions to ensure against high prices and help poor families with fuel bills. The state announced this past week a $5 million program to bail out wholesalers if they lose money by filling up their reserve tanks now. Meanwhile, fuel-assistance programs are flooded with applications.
''People are very nervous they aren't going to have enough to get through the winter,'' said Fran Stubbs, fuel director for People Acting in Community Endeavors. Her group helps about 8,000 New Bedford-area families each year.
President Clinton has plans to dip into the nation's petroleum reserves and lend 30 million barrels to energy companies to dampen prices. He is reserving 2 million barrels for the Northeast.
Meanwhile, oil has become a big issue in the presidential race, with Governor George W. Bush of Texas wanting oil exploration to take place on a remote piece of Alaska's Arctic National Wildlife Refuge. Vice President Al Gore vehemently opposes any drilling there. He is pushing for conservation and the development of energy sources.
But few are asking why New England continues to rely so heavily on a fuel that is vulnerable to price increases. Massachusetts is the country's third-biggest consumer of heating oil, behind New York, and Pennsylvania. Oil was king when Boston and the Northeast began its early suburban sprawl, but if you travel virtually anywhere else in the country that developed later, gas is the heating fuel of choice.
Gas has trouble getting to New England because the pipeline system forces it to travel so far from Canada or down South. Two gas lines have come into New England in recent years, and most new homes are equipped with gas heat. Still, gas isn't an escape hatch this season; natural gas prices are also soaring.
Oil has to travel even farther. New England is the only region in the country that doesn't refine its own heating fuel. Strict environmental laws have discouraged the building of refineries, which process oil and make it available nearby. The last big pipeline ends in New Jersey, and most of New England's oil is then transported here on ships or barges. When there are weather problems, like last year when storms coincided with a cold snap, reserves get low. Inevitably, prices rise.
But oil prices have stayed fairly low and stable for the last 20 years. When prices dropped after the last big energy crisis, residents abandoned their wood stoves, windmills, and solar panels. And many specialists say the same thing will happen again: New Englanders will forget about their vulnerabilty to high heating costs after prices drop.
Still, the jump in heating oil prices last January hit residents hard.
''People don't budget for that kind of [sudden price] change,'' said Joanne Shore, senior analyst with the federal Energy Information Adminstration. ''But we are still very, very far away from where we were in 1981 when prices peaked.''
New Englanders are reviving 1970s battle cries to conserve more and switch to other sources of energy. Some ideas floated back then worked: New building codes that require insulation and better-fitting windows have helped reduce the amount of heating oil that homes use, sometimes by about 20 percent, specialists say.
But the search for new energy sources largely failed. Nuclear power lost out because of its high cost and concerns about public safety. Wood stoves are said to be cumbersome and messy. The windmills and solar panels that environmentalists so often praise still produce little energy.
Part of the reason is that the switch to other energy sources, even gas, is risky. Customers can spend thousands only to find out next season that oil prices are dipping to seductive lows again.
''Solar may be free energy, but you have to pay for all the panels,'' said Bill Veno, director of the oil and environmental group at Cambridge Energy Research Associates. ''We're not being punished because we didn't do something in New England. This is a phenomenon of supply and demand.''
Many say that the answer lies in continuing to diversify energy sources. The state is funding experiments with fuel cells - which produce electricity from a hydrogen and oxygen reaction - and is focusing on renewable energy sources, such as solar power, said David O'Connor, commissioner of the state Division of Energy Resources.
''There is nothing wrong with having a substantial number of homes using oil,'' said O'Connor. ''There is a virtue in diversity. We want competing alternatives.''
-- It's the Refinery's Stupid! (whadya@mean?.com), October 09, 2000.
-- off (firstname.lastname@example.org), October 09, 2000.