Trawling through the archives at the Oilnergy website -- http://www.oilnergy.com -- I have extracted & compiled data on the rise and fall of crude oil stocks as reported by API. I have made a graph of this, which is rather interesting, but I do not know how to share it on-line. If anyone would like to have a look and/or post it somewhere, please email me and see if we can work out how. If it helps, it's in a Quattro Pro v.7 file, which I run on Windows 95.

Failing publication of a graph, please find a verbal description of the highlights below.

Caveat: the Oilnergy site reported almost exclusively in terms of weekly increases and decreases, in mmB. Every once in a while they would mention something to the effect of, "crude increased 4.73 mmB to a total of 322.1," which allowed me to extrapolate back. There were a couple of weeks that were skipped, and I filled those in, rather arbitrarily, based on the totals so occasionally given. However, on occasion, totals quoted at either end of an unbroken stretch of weekly increases/decreases would not match the calculated totals; also, on attempting to find the same info on the API site -- http://www.api.org and watch out for the popup survey -- I found that the API totals did not quite match those quoted on the Oilnergy reports, even though the increase or decrease from the previous week would be spot-on.

As a result, my calculated total for crude stocks and those of the API are sometimes off as much as 10 mmB. As of my final date (26 Sept 2000), the API reports 284.3 mmB, where I calculate, from Oilnergy, 275.97.

Highlights:

From my first date, 22 July 1997 (318.97 mmB, calc.) to 26 Sept 2000, there has been a drop of approximately 13.5%.

There was a peak of something like 355 mmB on or about 19 May 1998, but this is one of the points I was forced to interpolate. Still, the neighboring dates show neighboring totals. Current stocks, by my calculation, are down 22.4% from that peak; by my peak and API's value for current stock, that is a drop of 20%.

A roller-coaster ride of overall mild descent follows for almost a year.

A noticeable fall begins in April 1999, call it 15 April, from a high of 339.57 mmB (calc); with a few small rebounds in June (to 334.85), July (to 329.63) and October (to 305.43), it drops rather interestingly to a low of 272.33 (calc) on 15 Feb 2000. (My calculated total for 22 Feb is 273.98, but the API site gives 284.5 for that date.) This is a drop of 19.8%, by my figures.

A striking rebound takes us to 300.75 mmB (calc) on 25 April 2000, but now we are back about to the low of February, whether you use my figures (275.97 mmB on 26 Sept, vs. 273.98 on Feb 22, the week after my lowest low) or API's (284.3 on 26 Sept, vs. 284.5 on Feb 22).

The sharpest change, plus or minus, occurs in the first week of 1999: from 29 Dec 98 to 5 Jan 99, a fall of 14.92 mmB. The second sharpest is another fall, in the last week of January 2000: from 25 Jan 00 to 1 Feb 00, a drop of 10.42 mmB.

The Oilnergy archives also gave refinery capacity (apparently, capacity % in use) weekly. The height was 1 Sept 1998, at 100.7%. There were lows in Feb 1998 (88.7%) and Oct 1998 (86.8%), and a sharp drop in January 2000, to a low, in Feb, of 84.4%. 26 Sept 2000, the capacity was reported as 94.4%.

My employers have no idea what I think and cannot be held in any way accountable for any remarks I make whatsoever.

-- L. Hunter Cassells (mellyrn@nist.gov), October 04, 2000

Answers

I heard a report on NPR within the past few days of a cornering of the market by a company in Britain. This was in place for a brief time in Feb,2000 I think. The report stated that there is currently legal action being taken by US but since the company is not a US co. there may be little to do. I thought I would see an article on this board so I was lazy and didn't get the name of the co. Sorry. Maybe someone else has heard about it?

-- poconojo (jberman478@aol.com), October 04, 2000.

Here they are!
The nuclear scram graph is mine and the others are from L. Hunter Cassells.

The Globe

-- spider (spider0@usa.net), October 04, 2000.

Here is the description of the story from "All Things Considered". The show aired on Oct.3 and you can listen to it from their site, NPR.org.

"Oil Suit: NPR's Jim Zarroli reports on allegations that a British company managed to corner the market for a particular type of oil earlier this year. A lawsuit filed last month claims London-based Arcadia Petroleum engineered an elaborate scheme to drive up the price of North Sea Brent Crude and then enjoyed windfall profits." (4:30)

-- poconojo (jberman478@aol.com), October 05, 2000.