I think its only wise that folks do what they can in the face of looming heating/natural gas prices. Our elec. co-op sends out a really interesting magazine, and the president said that natural gas/propane are up 60-70% and things don't look good. It seems to me that this has the potential to really be one Christmas stealing Grinch, what do you all think? As far as preparedness...we have both propane tanks filled...have a contract for our place of business...and have a wood burner that we use in the home as well. Sure helps....and I love the ambiance! (smile) We are also prepared to let friends/loved ones stay with us if heating gets way out of hand. We know there are alot of young folks that are struggling just from paycheck to paycheck; that a major increase in utilitiy bills would financially cripple. Last thought on my mind...yes; I am a little "conspiratorial minded" lol...I just look at the pure insanity of our economic structure in this nation...we are a debt ridden, credit society..."interest" is probably one of our nations most lucritive money makers....I look at all of the political stupidity, turmoil, and distress in other nations...and I wonder...what gives? What on earth is propping this nation up as long as it has been? Does anyone else believe we are approaching a state of "statism" in America faster than a racecar going down hill whose brake line just snapped?

-- Beth Weber (talmidim88@hotmail.com), October 02, 2000

Answers

I have to agree. I think the undoing is the economy is mostly based on alot of people doing "play" jobs. Stuff that will be "cut out" by people in hard times. So you get the snowball effect. In my area, boat manufacturing is the big thing. So who has to really have a boat? Energy prices may start the ball rolling. Don

-- Don (dairyagri@yahoo.com), October 02, 2000.

Last Winter in Pennsylvania, my husband and i had to wear long underwear to bed because we could not afford the $3/gal of heating oil. I made numerous calls to the Dept of Energy, my senators and congressmen, media, etc. wondering WHY these prices were not national news..They did not become news until the gasoline prices rose! Was i surprised? This became such a bone of contention that it was a huge factor in deciding where to relocate. Now we are all snuggled into Northeast Alabama where the locals say that when and IF it snows at all, people react as if the world were ending.We kissed snow and ice goodbye and the oil furnace along with them! We have a wood stove in the living room (air-tight)economy heating thing, as well as a working wood cookstove in the kitchen. We just cut several stacks of wood and are feeling quite smug about this coming Winter. We also had all new windows put in the house (a one-story log home) and are draft free..so much so we will have to open a few windows in order for the stoves to work properly. We absolutely refuse to give a single penny to the Middle East for their products...If it gets unseasonably cold here, we will cheerfully heat up a few bricks for the bed just as our ancestors did. If we had stayed in the Northeast, I believe we would have spent as much as we could afford on alternative heat sources such as solar or generator banks, etc. but the combination of ridiculous taxes AND high fuel cost drove us out. We are in love with Alabama and so very grateful to be here..great climate, gorgeous scenery, tons of wildlife and the NICEST folks in the country are all here..besides, the taxes for our 8 acres is $169/year.....bring on the WINTER!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! God bless...

-- Lesley (martchas@gateway.net), October 02, 2000.

There are several things that add to the insanity. 1. The standard for our money is faith.Not gold nor silver but faith. If that faith is shaken(not stirred), the greenback is worthless. 2. Individual retirement accounts have been propping up the Dow for seven to ten years now. They are the reason you never see the bottom drop out. As long as the average, uninformed investor allows his money to be taken out of his check each week and invested, this will continue. If you notice at the end of a poor day the Dow rebounds always a little. Why? Because the mutual fund companies are bound by contract to seek investments for their clients. They must spend a certain high percentage in the markets. 3. The real scare, IMHO, is real estate. They are offering 50 year mortgages and zero down mortgages and widely variable rate mortgages. None of these are intelligent options for borrowers. People are mortgaged up to their eyeballs, and will go under at the first problem in the economy. It reminds me of the borrowing for stock investments before the crash of 29. Notice the tightness of regulations following the crash? The same rules are not in effect for real estate purchasers or investors. Ever see those people on TV who made unreal sums in Real Estate? I wonder how they would fare in a down economy? 4. The internet companies are starting to be humbled and the falseness of this sector of the economy is starting to show. Beth thanks for letting a fellow Weaver rant with you. (Your last name in German, as I'm sure you know)

-- Ed Weaver (edzreal@postmaster.co.uk), October 02, 2000.

One reason the stock market manages to stay propped up is that the federal government is a big time buyer and seller. Anytime things begin to look weak, the fed moves in and buys bigtime. When things begin to look better, they sell again. Most of our economy is now service based, not manufacturing based. This is a set up for disaster whenever the bottom does drop out of the economy, and it will because economies eventually do always drop. This high fuel price could well be the catalyst for the next depression. If people are having to spend more money on fuel, that means they have less money to spend on movies, new clothes, etc. They will just have to do without and make do. That in turn will of course start a general downturn in the economy. Oh well. What is to be will be. None of us can help it.

-- Green (ratdogs10@yahoo.com), October 02, 2000.

My father-in-law, a very smart man, works for an energy company in the midwest. His job is pre-scheduling rolling brown-outs and outages.

Last summer, he converted his own home to propane heat and cooking and a couple of propane lights. He also got large tanks and had them filled and keeps them filled. When asked about it, he assured me Y2K was a non'event, but was for the coming ENERGY SHORTAGE.

This is what he explained to me, why we are facing a serious energy shortage..........The last of the nuclear power plants are already scheduled to be off-line within the next few years. The only source to make up the lost energy and increasing demand is with the dirty coal burners, but nobody wants them in their backyards, so they are not being built at a rate to keep up with demand.

Many of our natural gas pipelines are also off-line due to problems of age and maintainence (and explosions) The hydro-electric plants of the west are being limited in their water output because of the salmon and steelhead endangerment issue and there is a real possibility that the hydro-electric dams will be removed altogether to "protect the fish." (like what will the salmon do with siltbeds? There ARE alternatives)

Meanwhile, the domestic petroleum exploration and extraction is thoroughly hogtied by our present administration's environmental policies. This administration has not given one dime to exploration of energy options such as wind or solar or other undeveloped sources.

John Q. Public is having all-electric houses shoved down his throat whether he likes it or not, metro areas have woodburning bans because of air quality and young women everywhere would die without their blowdryers, curling irons and electric make-up mirrors.

Many of us believe Y2K was engineered to condition us for the coming energy shortage and the domino effect on our economy and everyday lives.

In short, our energy demands outstrip our energy companies' ability to provide services. Right now, many companies are giving price breaks to industries who shift their peak energy use to off hours so that John Q. Public does not notice the rolling brownouts currently sweeping our country.

Stay warm and safe, everybody. The forecast for this winter is colder and wetter than normal for the Pacific Northwest. I hope the rest of the country has as mild of winter as we do.

-- Laura (gsend@hotmail.com), October 03, 2000.

Regarding Laura's post, as an aging baby boomer seems to me I vaguely remember the alleged experts telling us during the energy crunch of the 70's that if the country didn't begin converting to other forms of non petroleum based energy there would be enormous shortages sometime in the eary part of the next century. Well, we are in the early part of the next century. Does anyone else have any memory of such dire forecasts?

-- Green (ratdogs10@yahoo.com), October 03, 2000.

Laura, please don't think this is a put down of your father-in-law, but I don't see why he thinks propane is a better solution. It's my understanding that propane (also called LP) gas is a mixture made from petroleum and natural gas. If this is so, wouldn't there be problems getting propane as well? My family lives in a small town where natural gas lines were put in only recently, so mostly people have propane. It's delivered by trucks. Wouldn't there also be a problem getting delivery if there's a fuel shortage for the delivery trucks? I can see that having large tanks would help offset this problem, but still think it would be a problem, sooner or later.

Green, I'm an aging baby boomer too. I mostly remember the fuel shortages of the 1970's from my ego-centric short sighted view of the time -- it was a pain in the butt! But, if you waited long enough in line, and didn't make unnecessary trips, and planned to fill up more frequently, everyone got by. I'm not so sure that continue to be the case when there are shortages. People are still predicting the end of petroleum-based fuel. Here are a few of sites to look at --

Running On Empty Especially read the section on What You Can Do

Brain Food

This one has a graphic illustrating all the things made with petroleum and petroleum products:

p etroleum

-- Joy Froelich (dragnfly@chorus.net), October 03, 2000.

Dang!

Running On Empty Especially read the section on What You Can Do

Hubbert Peak

Brain Food

-- Joy Froelich (dragnfly@chorus.net), October 03, 2000.

Joy, my fil's point is, he already HAS the propane on his property, purchased at last years prices. Used conservatively, he has enough to last a few years.

Green, what I remember from the '70s is gloom and doom on every front. We were going to run out of everything if we didn't nuke ourselves with incompetency first. I couldn't possibly keep up with the dire predictions of that decade.

(oh! a few faded memories returning) DISCO SUCKS---NUKE THE GAY WHALES FOR JESUS---

-- Laura (gsend@hotmail.com), October 03, 2000.

What is this AGING baby boomer stuff. I'm a baby boomer but I refuse to age. I do remember the '70's and yes, the predictions were that we would run out early in the next century. I don't believe those predictions were ever changed. Just alot of good publicity work to make us forget. I also remember everyone being in the same boat and working together to make it thru. I have some very good memories of friends and community. Fairs that taught us skills and techniques that would enable us to still have a nice life. Alot of the skills I have now, I learned then. Some I need to resurect. Wouldn't you know, I didn't move my homemade yogurt maker, from the '70's, with this last move. And, of course, now I wish I had. I also remember being unable to afford meat, no gas and bare shelves. It was frightening for those who were unprepared.

-- Cheryl Cox (bramblecottage@hotmail.com), October 03, 2000.

Thanks, Laura, I get it now. I have been thinking "farther down the road", that is, that we will be running out of petroleum & derivatives (probably within my lifetime), and totally missed the shorter term view. He must have BIG tanks to last several years, or else he's very frugal!

-- Joy Froelich (dragnfly@chorus.net), October 03, 2000.

Joy, my fil also has a woodstove but lives in an area with woodburning bans on bad air days.

Given the political and beauracratic obstacle course, there are no long-term solutions on our horizon, unless we bring back nuclear power plants. Of course giving up our non-essential electric consumption and live like the rest of the planet would go a long ways toward conservation.

Does anyone have any ideas for long-term solutions to the impending energy and economic crisis?

-- Laura (gsend@hotmail.com), October 04, 2000.

How about family planning?

-- sheepish (rborgo@gte.nte), October 04, 2000.

Sheepish, if you don't have the fuel to run the machinery, you need more people to do the work. Large families may well return.

-- (ratdogs10@yahoo.co.), October 04, 2000.

I'm with sheepish on family planning (reducing population) as one component. If there is no food to feed them, people won't be having large families.

Here are suggestions from the Running on Empty site:

Personal preparations:
Reduce energy dependence of family, home, lifestyle. The less fuels and goods you consume, the less the impacts will be, and the more we will delay the oil shocks.

Workplace:
'Same. Work on it with friends: Workmates, neighborhood, city, governments. The ideal use for remaining oil and mineral reserves is into industries that create inexhaustible alternative energy equipment like windmills, solar water heaters, biomass (vegetation that creates fuels), etc. Share your feeling with others.
Try to stay positive and active rather than ignore it or blame people for it. Where there's life there's hope, especially if we all collaborate and are creative.

"It's not that new". Humans have always faced hardships, and many among us do so constantly now. Learn from them.

Possible emergency measures to consider:
--Alert the entire public so people will accept preparations for the oil shortages, participate in implementing solutions
--Relocate food production nearer to cities
--Relocate workplaces nearer to homes or homes nearer to workplaces
--Prepare for conserving and rationing of dwindling oil/other resources that are created using oil
--Population control to prevent children being born into extremely harsh conditions that seem likely, and to conserve soon-scarce resources for those already alive.
--Re-localize, to reverse globalization
--Strengthen the police to deal with likely social chaos and to control distribution of vital supplies.
--Alert national leaders to cooperate against this major threat that faces us all.

-- Joy Froelich (dragnfly@chorus.net), October 04, 2000.

Forgot to turn the bold off. Also forgot to mention that the "Brain Food" site isn't as optomistic.

-- Joy Froelich (dragnfly@chorus.net), October 04, 2000.

Actually, Sheepish, when we have power outages during storms, I feed my kids sweets and let them bounce off the walls. It heats our house up quite well!

I consider food shortage and energy shortage two completely different issues and I don't have fatalistic views of either one of the subjects. So we have to live like our great-grandparents did, or like my grandparents did up until 1962; like many homesteaders do now.

For many of us, we face nothing more than a few inconveniences, a little harder work and a challenge to our ingenuity.

-- Laura (gsend@hotmail.com), October 05, 2000.

Population is always one part of the scarce resources allocation issue. We are at, or around, ZPG (zero population growth) in the U.S. according to the last set of stats that I have seen (been a while, tho.) I think it's something like 1.7 children born to each couple. We do have more significant immigration impacts, however.

Nevertheless, the rest of the world is going on its merry way of overpopulating the planet. Regardless of how many resources we have in the U.S., or more appropriately, North America, the effect of all these hungry new bodies will eventually overwhelm us all. Not much that I can see in the way of doing anything about it, though. Particularly in light of the fact that nobody wants to spend money on foreign aid these days. Not that anyone would "listen" to us anymore, either.

-- sheepish (rborgo@gte.net), October 05, 2000.

I must add that not the *entire* rest of the world is moving toward overpopulating the planet! There are several other nations that are not growing exponentially! I apologize for sounding NorthAmerican- centric!

-- sheepish (rborgo@gte.net), October 05, 2000.

Unfortunately, energy and food are inextricably intertwined. If you don't have one, you don't have the other. Think of all the energy needed for fertilizers, pesticides, tractors, harvesters, processing factories, trucks, and even the pretty plastic package they put the Twinkie in before shipping it to market, which also requires energy. Living like Grandpa did was fine for Grandpa -- he didn't have 98 percent of the population of the United States at his door demanding all the food he has raised. And most of them are so many generations away from farm life that they have no clue how to provide for themselves. The only thing supporting the current population numbers in the United States is cheap energy.

-- Cash (cash@andcarry.com), October 05, 2000.

Sheepish, what you say about some other countries not doing much (or anything) to control population is true. On the other hand, each American consumes at least 20 times (or more) as much in resources as one person in the "third world". And so many think America has the lifestyle they should live.

Cash, I believe you are entirely correct. Plus, in the 1930's, when the Great Depression was occurring, the world's population was around 1/4 of what it is now.

-- Joy Froelich (dragnfly@chorus.net), October 06, 2000.

Joy, yes, very good point. Add that to the equation.

-- sheepish (rborgo@gte.net), October 06, 2000.