Okay, CPR, you've almost convinced everyone that you know EXACTLY WHAT IS GOING TO HAPPEN in the AWL MARKET. Now, all you have to do is prove that YOU are SURE you know what is going to happen. Luckily, that's very easy. Since you KNOW that oil prices are going to decline, all you have to do is SELL OPTIONS ON AWL FUTURES. At the moment, the most expensive options seem to be the spring heating oil options, for example March 2001. An at the money call (0.88/gal) last sold for 823 points. Since you KNOW that prices are going to drop, this option will expire worthless, so it will be free money for you. And since gambling requires uncertainty, and you aren't uncertain, it shouldn't offend your religious sensibilities against gambling.

As you already pointed out, one option doesn't amount to very much money, especially for someone as wealthy as you are. So, to make it absolutely clear that you are serious about your prediction, er, FACTUAL STATEMENTS ABOUT THE FUTURE OF AWL PRICES, I suggest that you sell 1000 of these options. Then, when they expire worthless, you'll get to keep the premium of approximately $3,500,000.

I'm sure you'll be happy to keep us informed of the progress of your speculation, er, investment, er, SURE THING. But just in case you're too busy with your big real estate deals, I'll keep track of it and post the results here. Good luck, er, have a nice day!

-- Sergeant Friday (just.the@facts.maam), September 23, 2000

Answers

Sarge, CPR doesn't do real estate deals these days; he gave all that up to devote himself full-time to fighting the good fight against ... the ***DOOMZIES***.

But you make an excellent point ... CPR ought to really make a killing in the oil market, since he thinks he has such a perfect knowledge of it. In fact, he ought to be able to make a killing on gold, by shorting it, since he knows all about that, too.

There are many who can "talk the talk"; very few "walk the walk".

-- King of Spain (madrid@aol.cum), September 23, 2000.

AND .........JUST WHAT IS ..........GARY "DUCT TAPE WILL BE MONEY LONG AFTER 1/1/2000" NUTSO DOING THESE DAYS, KING OF SPIT???

Charles Reuben

(December 1999):  The original final Pre-2000 statement for Russ Kelly was written for BEETHOVEN"S BIRTHDAY and contained the line, "Long after 2000, the music of Beethoven will be played.......". The arrest of two sets of Domestic Terrorists forced me to hold that statement that contained a lashing for those who spread and/or condoned the use of FUD to sell their ideas or products vis a vis Y2k.

In the next few days before Christmas, 1999, people will see one tangible aspect of the Y2k problem that few predicted. People will wait at Airports for thorough examination of themselves and luggage for possible tools of Terrorists planning tragedies instead of Celebration and Rejoicing of the CDC to 2000. At the borders, traffic will be slowed as cars are searched completely. Yet, none of it is directly related to the Y2k Computer Date or Embedded Systems Problem.

Rather, it may be related........directly to a CLIMATE OF FUD, fear, uncertainty and doubt built and sustained by vested interests some within the Computer/Business Sector but strangely, even weirdly propagated far outside the boundries of Computers, Business and Government. At the core of the buildup of the FUD, was even more strangely, the WWW of the Internet which enabled the cheap and rapid re-distribution of admixes of ..........fact.......gossip.....hoaxes and opinion......all (and this is critical) ........without the standard Editorial Control that responsible media people even those from the far sides of both Political venues, Left and Right would exercise.

After 2000, WHO will be held responsible for the FUD........and the enormous COST.......to counter act it??

That open question will be one of the Lessons of Y2k.

Below, I offer another knowing that ...........few......will understand. Few will see it and few will act because of it. However, I think it offers the key explanation of HOW and WHY Y2k as a Computer and Business Problem was addressed, contained to the current level where it can be properly managed.

The lesson of Y2k is that the PROBLEM **WAS** addressed because it had to be. Western Civilization is a history of the conquering of "Problems" and more importantly the *Improvement* of the best that we have and hope to be.

Learn the Lesson of Y2k. NEVER let it happen again. NEVER. For some, the lesson might be right out side their windows in their gardens.

http://stand77.c om/wwwboard/messages/7955.html

(August 1999): "Aside from minor accidents during Y2k testing quickly solved by human intervention, there is no evidence of any "emerging crisis". Thus, *reality* suggests we lower the "warning flags" again. So I narrow the range down to 1.0 to 1.5."

"Work progresses and one I.T. report indicates that 96% of mission critical and non critical applications and embedded systems will see the end of final testing before 1/1/2000. That leaves 4.0% of the work not "finished".  NOTE: that does not mean the work is not started. It means at the Large Corporate level: 4.0% is not finished. In all sectors of business, that alone is "better than usual" for failure and problems are every day things in all businesses or all would be "perfect". We know that is not the case EVER. Since the pessimists make the claim that the "failures are being hidden" the argument for "interconnectedness" falls apart. If everything were "interconnected" how could the "failures" be hidden?? That would imply the 45 Million Employees of large Corporations have the ability to "cover it all up". That is ludicrous. There are either real "impacts" or there are not. The argument for "they're coming soon" is old and stale. The Bottom Line here is simple: "problems" can be managed whether Y2k or the weather.  If a manager can't deal with problems, he is replaced. Y2k is merely a business problem now that can be managed."

"The NERC information to be released in the next few days will remove most remaining concerns about the ability of Power Utilities to conduct business as usual (BAU)."

"That will end concerns about the so-called "iron triangle". It now begins to look as though the proverbial "bump in the road" might only be on a few back roads and have little consequence. The major analysts long ago stated that problems vis a vis Y2k would take place throughout 1999. Several estimates range from 15%- 25% taking place before 1/1/2000. Now one well known Y2k "expert" claims he underestimated the ability to hide the problems that might have been found. I see no reason to comment on such a statement. The fact is there was major damage to business networks in the Orient from the well known Computer virus: CIH. There was no effect noted either in the Global 2000 supply chains or in Corporate earnings. The Dow, Nasdaq and S&P may be irrational but they do measure earning power and consumer confidence in several ways. There is no reason to believe the Retail market will not set every record known in the 4th Quarter as we celebrate the Last Festival of the Merchants of the 20th Century. Like Dr. Yardeni, I have long questioned the ability of the economy to continue faced with the impacts of Y2k and all sorts of serious problems from offshore. But only a True Fool argues with reported results to date."

"Bottom line?? We have have underestimated the ability of the US/European and World economy to handle all problems whilst overestimating Year 2000 impacts. History will answer such questions not I. Charlie Reuben DALLAS, A YEAR 2000 READY CITY."

(May 1999): "Please change my evaluation of the y2k problem down again almost to the Nick Z. range: 2.0-3.5. It would take a series of major exposes about "uncomplete-able work" before I would raise that range which includes now 2/3rds due to "Y2k panic vendors". Even that is almost over. The "fever" is broken."

"Dallas is a MAJOR I.T. center and a Y2k remediation center. The DFW/DAMA Y2k group has had presentations from most major corporations, Texas Utilities and the Fed.Reserve Bank and all present the view point that they can manage their problems. The HCFA seminar show progress even in lagging Health related Enterprises, gov. and private."

"The theme here is simple: "There will be failures but they will be "managed"."

"My view now is that Y2k as a business/computer problem is OVER ...IF... work in progress continues at the increasing rates being reported. We know the knowledge base accumulated over the past five years is being deployed by the Legitimate Consultants and Vendors at increasing rates. Most of the "scary stories" now are merely about the Public or OLD re-hashes of "what- ifs" or "lets pretend". "Lets Pretend" was a radio show that went off the air by the early 1950s. Y2k is heading that way now."

"Y2k has reached the stage nicely described in Corinthians: "Why seek ye after a vain thing?" Its not over but it is "winding down". Those who don't see this are now the ones in "denial". If I have one special expertise in Y2k it is in tracking the "Extremists" and Fear Pushers and now, the "Back of Y2k Hysteria" has been broken just as de Jager discusses the REAL PROBLEM: the Computer/Embedded Systems related problems. There will always be niche panic people over any issue. NOW.....few believe the claims of the Y2k "Extremists"."

"There is now simply too much evidence that the Fortune 2000, even SMEs and the Government entities have a "problem that can be managed" no matter how many breakdowns may come from the Code or the Embedded systems problems."

"Contingency plans including inventory stockpiling would enable even the GMs of the world to function until "Weak Links" in the vendor or even customer lines can be "Fixed on Failure"."

"The NERC summary and the NRC release clears up the status of the Utilities and there is little need to debate the Telco or Bank progress. The Security Industry is on track."

"As for "Public Panic" NOT BLOODY LIKELY if the so-called "Iron Triangle" performs as now expected."

"And recently, there has been a significant drop in the commerce associated with the Web Sites pushing so-called Y2k Supplies. Business is off by their own reports."

"Just last week, Y2kNewswire.com reported that several vendors are in trouble because the PUBLIC is returning merchandise. The "purported" shortage of Honda Diesels has been corrected by Honda shipping to distributors and Honda can ramp up more if they see the need is there."

(March 1999): "The release of the Corporate information has reduced the possibility of any impacts from the Y2k computer date problem into a more than manageable range. I rate the Computer/Business problem now at 3.0. However, the public hysteria due to widespread confusion about remediation makes the Public perception now a major part of the Y2k problem. I rate that as : an additional 2.5 or almost equal to the Computer Business problem."

(August 1998): "Disclosures of the timelines of some major Corps re: completion of Y2k work. In particular: AT+T, Texas Utilities, BankBoston and the City of Dallas. In addition, the State of Texas is meeting all goals as described to Rep. Horn in testimony last Monday here in D/FW. Last but not least, private communications to me show that other Banks and Utilities are in much better shape than reported."

-- cpr (buytexas@swbell.net), September 24, 2000.

Or in other words, CPR is chicken shit. He's afraid to stand behind his own prediction. Of course, there's nothing surprising about that. Bullies are always cowards.

-- Sergeant Friday (just.the@facts.maam), September 24, 2000.

Take a walk "anonymous" Friday. How do you know I didn't buy calls at .55 to .70 (THATS ......cents) vs. the $3.25 you claim to have paid??????

-- cpr (buytexas@swbell.net), September 24, 2000.

That's a very good question, CPR. I'll be happy to tell you how I know that you didn't buy calls at "55 cents" versus the "$3.25" I paid: because I paid 3.25 CENTS per gallon for my option, not "$3.25". Similarly, your "55 cents" quote was actually 55/100 of a cent per gallon. If you had actually purchased such calls, you would know that. But of course, you don't.

Q. E. D.

-- Sergeant Friday (just.the@facts.maam), September 24, 2000.

BWahahahaHAHA!! Winner of Best Post of the Day award!

-- (Sergeant@Friday.Rocks!), September 25, 2000.