Risk of Iraq clash growing despite US caution

Western officials say Saddam will exploit the sensitive US elections campaign season to dramatize Iraqs opposition to UN sanctions and try to embarrass Clinton

By Paul Taylor September 16, 2000, 06:16 PM BAGHDAD (Reuters) - Prospects of a military clash between Iraq and United States are growing in the run-up to the US presidential election, diplomats say, but the Clinton administration is sure to weigh the political risks carefully.

The risk was that any military action would remind voters that Saddam is still in power. US, British and Kuwaiti officials say the Iraqi air force has been flying provocative missions in the last two weeks to challenge Western-imposed no-fly zones over northern and southern Iraq. One jet violated Saudi airspace, they said.

Baghdad has revived old accusations that Kuwait is stealing its oil and threatened to take unspecified measures against the neighbor it invaded in 1990, sparking the 1991 Gulf War.

The Iraqi air force had recently fired a new air-to-air missile in an exercise, showing an upgraded capability to threaten US and British planes patrolling the no-fly zones, which Iraq does not recognize, one source said.

"The West has been holding back so far, but if this pattern of provocation continues, Id be very surprised if we get through the next few weeks without some serious military action," a senior Western diplomat said.

Such action would likely involve major US and British air strikes on Iraqi air bases, he said.

Saddam seen exploiting US campaign

Western officials believe President Saddam Hussein, true to past form, will exploit the sensitive US campaign season to dramatize Iraqs opposition to UN economic sanctions and try to embarrass President Bill Clinton.

They said the White House had discussed plans for a range of eventualities, including Iraqi military action against the Kurds, an attack on Western aircraft or on Kuwait, and the risk that Saddam might play with oil exports to send world prices through the roof before the November 7 US vote.

Iraq children are dieing under UN sanctions Among Iraqs current tactics are an attempt to break a decade-old civil aviation boycott by starting civilian flights from Russia and trying to bring in a planeload of anti- sanctions activists from France.

US Secretary of State Madeleine Albright warned Iraq on Thursday that Washington stood ready to take military action if Baghdad threatened its neighbors.

"We do have a credible force in the region and are prepared to use it in an appropriate way at a time of our choosing," Albright told a news conference.

Diplomats said she discussed possible Iraqi actions that might prompt a military response with Foreign Secretary Robin Cook of Britain, Washingtons closest ally on Iraq, on the sidelines of the UN General Assembly this week.

Albright was also due to meet Saudi Arabias Crown Prince Abdullah in New York on Friday night as fears of a US-Iraqi confrontation helped push oil prices close to 10-year highs.

Diplomats said Washington would look to Riyadh, the worlds biggest oil producer, to use its spare capacity to boost crude production if Iraqs 2.3 million barrels a day in exports were taken off the market.

Reluctant warriors?

Sources familiar with US thinking said the administration was reluctant to be drawn into a clash, and while US forces in the Gulf had been placed on higher alert, commanders had been instructed not to over-react to minor transgressions.

"Nobody is gung-ho, but certainly there has been increasing readiness and they have seriously considered the options to escalate if Saddam escalates," said Anthony Cordesman, a respected Middle East expert at the Center for Strategic and International Studies in Washington.

"The risk of an October surprise is a real one," he said.

The United States would not initiate action in response to the Saudi air incursion or verbal threats, but any sign of a serious Iraqi military initiative against Kuwait would draw a massive and swift air response, he said.

Experts said the domestic political impact was a major factor in the administrations calculations about Iraq.

The risk was that any military action would merely remind voters that a defiant Saddam is still in power, making the Clinton administration look ineffectual and rubbing off on Vice President Al Gore, the Democratic candidate.

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-- Martin Thompson (mthom1927@aol.com), September 18, 2000