Question for techies re arguement that Y2K "bad" data would corrupt all systemsgreenspun.com : LUSENET : TB2K spinoff uncensored : One Thread
One of the touted doomer arguments pre-Y2K was the claim that, even if the vast majority of computer systems were successfully made Y2K compliant, it really would not matter -- in time, virtually ALL systems would fall victim to corrupted data due to the minority of systems that were not Y2K compliant. This was based on the idea that systems are networked, they pass data, and there was no effective way to for a compliant system to be able to know that the data it received and was using was in error due to Y2K. Or, best case, the data would be identified as obviously screwed up, and outright rejected -- along with all the other data that came with it, resulting in a huge loss of needed data.
It was argued that the above would happen either directly or indirectly. "Directly" would be due to a mismatch of assumptions as to the format of the date data. E.g., the source computer was passing the year as a 2-digit field using windowing but the target computer was expecting a 4-digit field.
"Indirectly" would be due to just plain bad data. The source computer was passing data that was legit in terms of the format, and the target computer likewise accepted the data correctly. But, due to the source computers Y2K problems, the data was just plain WRONG, and now "infected" the target computer.
On ye olde TB2K, this was hotly debated. As a non-techie, I watched the corrupted data ping pong ball get bounced around between doomer and polly techies. Perhaps the biggest worry that I had personally was what the doomer side pointed out: Without LARGE SCALE TESTING across the various systems and networks, who the heck knew WHAT the result would be?
Question for techies: What do you think at this point? Did nothing happen because EVERY system was basically Y2K-OK? Or was the entire corrupted data hypothesis nothing but hogwash?
-- King of Spain (firstname.lastname@example.org), September 17, 2000
WHAT DIFFERENCE DID IT MAKE?
YOU WOULD NEVER HAVE BEEN ABLE TO "INTERPRET" THE RESULTS BECAUSE OF YOUR OWN **MIND SET** aided and re-inforced by the DOOM MACHINE OF Y2k FUD.
You and others wouldn't listen to HOFF on MAINFRAMES.
You and others wouldn't listen to Engineer, Dan the Power Man and others on POWER.
You and others wouldn't listen to Cherri or anyone else on "embedded systems".
YOU and others wouldn't listen to Maria when she told you the TRUTH about the phones. Especially YOU, spain, because after all they were only "girls" and WHAT COULD THEY "know", RIGHT?a
You and others wouldn't even listen when the Y2k Weatherman told you his TELCO MAJOR's Y2K program was FINISHED..., ontime and under budget and he needed a job. And he was a Doomer.(still is).
You and others didn't even listen to Flint, the fence sitter
You and others didn't listen to ANYTHING that "contradicted" the Mind Bend you suffered from.
Then in your "wisdom" you "EXTRAPOLATED" even the SMALLEST PROBLEM into "ITS GWINA BE REAAAL BAAAD ........."PREP". Only 14 Days to Prep and you can be "ready" hoping for the best and expecting the WORST. A WORST.........NOBODY......but YOU and the rest of the Mind Warped believed.
Until "assorted times" after 1/1/2000 ranging from hours to months to almost 3/4ths of a YEAR. BUT..........soome are "SLOWER" than others and no one ever accused "SPAIN", HAWK, email@example.com or most doomers of being "SWIFT" (except to find DOOM).
TESTING WAS DONE. It was satisfactory to Banks, WALL St. GM and the Auto Chains who had verified 4 levels of vendors, .....Utilities,,,who the "DOOMZIES" "INTERPRETED". THE US SENATE SAID "3 Day Storm" as did everyone else except the BUY ONE YEARS DRIED FOODS AS "INSURANCE" ***COMET INSURANCE Y2k SALESMEN**.
YOU.....and all of the rest of the TB BRAIN WASHED....would never have listened. TO THE END.......it remained including the YOUR-TOAST: DUH....if sumpin baaaad happens the people will march on DC and burn the Programmers and pols'. DUH. (he wrote that TRIPE CHRISTMAS WEEK).
EVERYTHING WAS A "REASON TO PREP". Even Hurricanes that should have created a "Domino Effect" in the worst breakdown in N.C. in 100 years. The 100 Yr. Flood. No Power, No water, zip. BUT.......the People of N.C. had something to say about that.
Early winter hits northern NMgreenspun.com : LUSENET : TimeBomb 2000 (Y2000) : One Thread
There have been several occasions recently where people have suggested that Y2K could be the staw that breaks the camel's back -- e.g., the market might crash anyway, but Y2K could help it along, etc, etc.
But the converse is also interesting to contemplate: various natural and man-made events could be the straw that breaks Y2K's back. How much Y2K remediation work was going on in Bosnia, for example, when all of the cities were being bombed last spring? And what impact did Hurricane Floyd (and now Hurricane Irene) have on the Y2K remediation work going on in North Carolina and Florida? And what impact would a hard, early winter have on the Y2K situation throughout the northern U.S.?
Here in northern New Mexico, we had a relatively early winter last year: first snow up in the high mountains in late October, and the Taos ski village was open a week before Thanksgiving. But then it turned out to be a dry winter, followed by a wet summer.
This year, we're having our first major snowstorm tonight; the temperature dropped from 60+ degrees in the middle of the day to below freezing in a few hours, and blustery winds have been been blowing sheets of snow all over the place this evening. Thick dark clouds blocked out the sun, and descended upon the mountains this afternoon; I suspect that we'll have two or three inches of early snow, if not more, all over the place by tomorrow morning. Just yesterday, the hills and valleys here looked like New England, with birch and aspen trees splashing a golden yellow and orange across the mountains and hills ... but tomorrow there will be white mountains, leafless trees, and cold, gray skies. Fall is over, winter has arrived.
I've heard from some of the local people that this will be an early winter, a hard winter, a wet winter ... not sure whether this is folklore, the Farmer's Almanac, or some kind of tribal wisdom associated with the Native Americans who have lived in this valley for over a thousand years, long before the Spanish marched up the Rio Grande in 1540. Whatever it is, I trust their instincts -- I'm an Anglo from New York, and I don't know the patterns yet.
And then there is the issue of solar storms, due to hit their peak sometime in the December-January period. Don't know how bad that will be, either, but it would be a real nuisance if it caused power failures and radio/telecom disruptions on top of whatever else we're dealing with when Y2K arrives.
Fortunately, three cords of aged firewood arrived last weekend, and I had a second wood stove installed just a few days ago; it's now burning cheerfully in my office, fending off the chill from the howling winds outside. Fortunately, the howling winds also means the windmill is spinning madly up on the roof, helping to top off the batteries that were reasonably well charged by the brilliant sunlight this morning, before the clouds arrived.... None of this even begins to match the experience that our fellow forum-visitors from North Carolina and Florida have experienced in recent weeks, but it's an unmistakable reminder that Y2K is just part of a larger picture...
For those of you who may be facing a hard, early winter, as well as those of you dealing with hurricanes, floods, earthquakes, or other natural disasters -- I hope your Y2K preparations have helped you. In my case, they have been a great comfort. I'm ready.
-- Ed Yourdon (firstname.lastname@example.org), October 17, 1999
God Love Ya. I get my wood burning stove in Oct. 30. And by golly it's gonna look pretty too! Seriously, Ed, thanks to you and Jennifer for your books, this forum, and your essays. God put y2k on my heart to prepare for (and didn't let up :) Now, I have peace of mind and can rest in the comfort that my extended family, church and neighbors will have a good chance of survival. Plus, we will be able to bless others as well.
With Love and Appreciation,
-- Tess (preparingfort email@example.com), October 17, 1999.
Your description of the weather up there makes me home sick. It surely would be nice to have the cool weather, instead of the Texas heat we have been having LOL.
Have you tried our Green Chili yet? It is another thing I miss. Oh well, just my way of saying hello to you. And yes, to thank you for your efforts in trying to get y2k out to the people before it was too late.
-- Shakey (firstname.lastname@example.org), October 17, 1999.
I dont mean to pee in your cheerios... but I sure hope you have more than a few cords of wood for your two wood stoves.
We have one wood stove and a wood furnace. We heat a large house in the Northern part of the US. I know all of that is quite a bit different then your situation. But just wanted to say we go through about 45 cords of seasoned oak every winter.
Might want to order a few more "just in case"
By the way I too think it will be a early and cold winter.
-- bulldog (email@example.com), October 17, 1999.
With Y2K being the greatest exercise in contingency planning most people have ever/will ever face, ain't it like mother nature to throw a curve, jus when you think you can't add anything else to your prep list: Got Snowshoes ??
Since I'm in AZ., that shouldn't be a problem, but, today after the morning earthquake I'm thinking of adding "livestock" for heads up warning system for any future tremors!!
-- rob (firstname.lastname@example.org), October 17, 1999.
WOW Bulldog - that's a lot of wood... you must either have a Bill Gates style mansion or a need for insulation!
-- Y2KGardener (email@example.com), October 17, 1999.
Greetings from Santa Fe. It's snowing hard now here too-- looks like we've got a couple of inches already. Kind of early but not unheard of. We may have a fairly moderate winter, according to the firstname.lastname@example.org), October 17, 1999.
Sorry, that's http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/multi_season/13_seas onal_outlooks/color/seasonal_forecast.html. Keep forgetting I flunked HTML. :-)
-- ? (email@example.com), October 17, 1999.
The Hungarian comments that the number of acorns falling from her enormous old oak tree is considerably more than in any of the nine or ten years she's lived on the property. And my dad, who's lived through 82 winters, swears that an abundance of berries and nuts means a harsh winter. I notice my ornamental grasses are topped by what seem to be an unusually large number of plumes (seeds) this autumn.
Here in North Carolina, Floyd may have done small businesses a favor by wiping out their obsolete hardware and software--the replacements are probably Y2K-ready! The Raleigh TV station ran a piece on how to recover data from flood-damaged equipment; possibly manpower has been diverted from remediation to recovery of data. Certainly, much time has been lost if only because personnel have had to take time off to see to their own homes and families.
And at this moment, the first rain bands from Irene are affecting Critt's home on the coast in Wilmington. In Durham, well inland, a flash flood warning is already up for tomorrow.
-- Old Git (firstname.lastname@example.org), October 17, 1999.
Out on the West coast, noticed the spiders are building their webs up very high. An old Blackfoot/Crow Indian Grandfather once told me thats a sign of a wet winter.
Then to continue with the global shaky ground, making the rounds, Im sure you noticed that Southern California had a 7.0 this morning, fortunately in a remote desert area. This evening I just caught a "brief" mention on the local news that the USGS is watching the San Andreas fault (near where I live) because "recent activity" has caused it to... slip... a bit more... "towards failure" (love their term).
Then over on the other side of Silicon Valley, near the Fremont area, theres a large hill fire threatening homes and about to cause evacuations. Then they proceeded to discuss the unseasonal dryness causing out-of-control fires in various parts of the state.
Y2K may well be a sidebar... to what mother nature has in store for us.
Stay cozy! The snow sounds delightful!
(And stay warm n dry Old Git)
-- Diane J. Squire (email@example.com), October 17, 1999.
Gosh Ed...You sure have a way with words. You can weave a tapestry of words which sure paints beautiful pictures. Ever thought about writing a few books/...."Yourden's Pond" or "Main Street 2000" or "What To Do When You Get Your Long Johns on Backwards" Love Ya, Man!!:>)
-- Larry (Rampo@cyberramp.net), October 17, 1999.
You must be talking face cords, case if you use 45 full cords of wood per winter, you must have one heck of a storage lot....
-- Helium (Heliumavid@yahoo.com), October 17, 1999.
Bulldog You can in no way that I know of burn that much wood. 1 cord = 3 level truck loads of firewood? 10 cords is the most I'v ever used in my home and barn in 1 year.
45 cords to me = 135 truck loads,in 6 months that would = 5 or 6 loads a week, you must have a hired hand to keep the wood stove going?
Is there something we're missing here?
-- Rooster (Gotitlate@wow.com), October 17, 1999.
I would also like to thank you and your daughter from the bottom of my heart for your book. When I became Y2K aware last November it was one of the first books I read. I remember the whole idea of what would happen made me physically ill thinking about it. Since then I have prepared with a vengeance - being totally unprepared at the starting point.
Here in Utah...I have used my preps somewhat. The gas furnace at our 30 year old school is seriously broke. The electricity works though, so I brought in 2 of my high efficiency electric heaters to warm up my classroom in the morning.
What amazes me to no end here in Utah is that the stores are full of Y2k supplies of all types...everything you could want...but I don't think my Mormon neighbors have been preparing like their church wants them to be. It seems they are generally no more prepared than anyone else in the nation and it's a travesty because of how easy the preparing business is here. I've seen lots of money spent this summer on "having fun" or home improvements that are "keeping up with the Jones' " type things. Oh well.
May God bless you and your family, Ed, and all the GI's and DGI's who hang out here on this site.
-- nothing (firstname.lastname@example.org), October 17, 1999.
Well let's dispel some misconceptions, first off.
Ed, you talk about the Floyd situation interrupting Y2k remediation in North Carolina. I can assure you, Y2k means nothing to those thousands of people who have lost everything they own; who have lost family members. Farmers who will never be able to farm again. Y2k is a non-issue here right now. And here comes Irene. I live in Pitt County, NC, one of the three hardest- hit counties in the Floyd event, so I know what I'm talking about. I work on PC's for a living, so am keenly aware of the Y2k issue; but now have an awareness regarding the disaster aspect that the rest of you just flat do not have. You have not been through this experience. I have. Friends of mine who were alive five weeks ago are not now. That hits home, and makes one think. A lot.
There is no way in the world that a computer glitch can bring on anything approaching the kind of disaster we've seen here in eastern NC lately. No way. Unless you believe Gary North and his bubonic-plague-Middle-Ages crap. Which EY has pretty much denied with his "93% of critical systems will survive" statement.
But ya know what? We're surviving.
There have been no 'marauding bands of bloodthirsty hoodlums', like the Doomers have said would be the case in a disaster. (remember 'Tom's Take'?)
The Dreaded Government has not declared the dreaded Martial Law here. TO THE CONTRARY, they have SAVED MANY LIVES. Plucked people off the tops of their houses by helicopter. Cut through roofs to get people out of their attics, where they were trapped. Could go on and on. And on. The stories are totally amazing. Not hyperbole; fact.
I myself went out with the Humane Society and the Emergency Animal Rescue Service to rescue pets by boat. Many times we encountered National Guard troops, because we were working in restricted areas; they were nothing if not kind, courteous, and helpful. Some of them even lost their lives in this thing. You folks just don't have any idea. People in NC west of I-95 don't have much of an idea. In spite of what Old Git might say. You've got to be here, really, to have a clear idea of what's going on, and what has gone on.
I guess the main point is, a computer glitch will not kill civilization. A computer glitch cannot cause the damage that has been done in eastern NC by this recent flooding. Just can't. But people have found a way to get through, in this huge natural disaster. Utilities companies have found a way to continue to deliver power, with some interruptions; but have by and large done a mammoth job. The flood caught them totally flat-footed, as it caught us all; but they figured out a way to keep the juice coming, against all odds. If they can do that when a totally unexpected knockout punch is delivered, they can CERTAINLY figure out how to deal with something they've known about for years. Simple logic.
I'm not saying there won't be some difficulties associated with Y2k. I figure there will be. But the recent events in eastern NC PROVE that people will find a way to survive. And that people will PULL TOGETHER in a crisis, and will help one another; contrary to some Doomer theses suggesting the contrary. I've seen it with my own two eyes; have been a part of that helping-out thing. The outpouring of support from people who have helped their less fortunate neighbors has been tremendous, and is still ongoing. Surely people in eastern NC aren't so hugely more good-natured than people anywhere else. So this principle applies in general. Not that anywhere else will experience such a disaster anytime soon (we all hope). If such a monumental thing does happen, it certainly won't be due to a computer glitch. Never seen a computer system that could dump 80% of a year's worth of rain in seven weeks (as will be the case once Irene passes thru here later today).
Don't really know how to wrap this up, except to say, we've been through the worst hurricane/flood event seen since Columbus discovered America; Y2k can't even come close. And we're making it through.
And here comes Irene with more rain; we'll make it through that too. Though some places here are still above flood stage, 4+ weeks after Floyd.
But we'll make it. So there.
-- Chicken Little (email@example.com), October 17, 1999.
Hi Ed! I recommend mesquite wood if you can get it there. We mix it in with oak,pecan,hackberry,etc in the stove. There are several types of wood in your area that will really foul up the inside of your chimney. Always keep one of those chimney fire "putter-outer" thingy right beside your stoves. We have a windpower 403 still in the carton in our garage; and have been trying to decide how to put it up. I know they say it is designed to be installed actually on your roof. Is that what you did? We were thinking of something more like an old tv antenna pole--but considerably more stout, like steel pipe. I really hesitate to put anything on the roof and tempt fate for a roof leak.
-- jeanne (firstname.lastname@example.org), October 17, 1999.
Yes! I've seen many natural disasters and have witnessed over and over again people (common, everyday people and government entities) coming together, processing short term and long term solutions and getting on with the project ASAP. So in all the estimates I read, I factor in these experiences---I would note that when the "authorities" come up with stupid ideas the folk simply went ahead with what made sence and taught the "heads" what "on the ground" "remediation" was all about. There is a great pool of common sence and ability/knowhow out there. From the poor who know how to work cooperatively to feed, cloth and protect themselves and others , to the scroungers who can find almost anything. YES there are the bad guys, from international to local and circumstances horrific--in the news (and emphasized)-- I do factor these in--but to me none of the calculations make sence until all the positives are included and until these are weighted appropriately. Our information about people given to us by the media is generally pretty slanted and debaseing--- A small example----A couple of weeks ago a neighbor, who has a very serious disease lost her tree to a wind--although this is not a "get to know you--pot luck" type of neighborhood, one guy came out with his chain saw, then another saw him and came out, and then another with a pickup began to load for the dump--in 3 hours it was all cleaned up and everyone went home. Job seen, roles taken, job accomplished.
-- John Q (Thanks@ChickenLittle.com), October 17, 1999.
And they wonder why you moved from NYC? The sun will come out within a few hours and melt the snow away. I moved to Northern Arizona from near Chicago, still can't get over how nice it is here. Three cords of wood is plenty. We are at a little lower elevation than you are, and we heated primarly with wood last year. We used a cord and a half of oak mixed with shag juniper. On "cold" days we had a fire at night and one in the morning. That was enough to keep it around 70 degrees through the day, and mid-sixties at night. Our house is 1400 sq. ft. with decent insulation in the ceiling.
-- Bill (email@example.com), October 17, 1999.
Sorry about your problems Chicken, but you can't make an equal comparison between your flooding and Y2K. I know the *government* attempts to, but it is widely agreed by ALL GI's that the comparison is simply stupid beyond belief! Still is. Storms happen in ONE area, with available assistance from everywhere else.
Of course you haven't seen widespread looting and violence. In your case, all you'd need to worry about would be a psycho Lloyd Bridges, packing a spear gun, looking for bacon. Those providing assistance couldn't even get around. People who left Florida, returned to looted homes (perhaps because the crooks didn't need flippers?)
I'm not the least bit surprised a DGI like yourself can't see the implications of 'no help available' as the result of Y2K failures. Picture a WORLD-WIDE flood. That would be a far more realistic scenerio, IMHO.
Even after having experienced what you just described.....you are still blind. Still looking for the golden happy face. Still unable to analyze the potential for complete disaster that Y2K possesses.
-- Will continue (firstname.lastname@example.org), October 17, 1999.
-- cpr (email@example.com), September 17, 2000.
MORE ON THE ******BRAIN WARPING*********http://www.greenspun.com/bboard/q-and-a-fetch-msg.tcl?msg_id=001axLWill (and Ed, and others):
I move from lurk mode briefly to say something. I've been trying to figure out where I stand on this Y2K thing, and was hoping that I'd see an argument here that would help me make up my mind.
Well, I have, and you'd have to include me in what you call the "don't get it" category.
The biggest mistake that all of you make (especially Ed), in my opinion, is assuming that computers can cause damage equivalent to a "world-wide flood." That's silly.
I got the point that Chicken Little (I like that name, by the way!) was trying to make. Now it's your turn, each and every one of you here: even if every single computerized controller in NC had failed at the same instant (and even the gloomiest Gary North type doesn't think that'll happen), it COULD NOT have caused as much damage as that hurricane did.
Even if every single computer at every single sewage treatment plant had failed as badly as the one at Van Nuys, California, it wouldn't have caused as much damage. Even if you add every other controller at utilities, it wouldn't have caused that much damage.
I'm sorry, but you guys are nuts. Again: I'm speaking as someone who came here looking as objectively as a human can. I've been over to Biffy and Debunking Y2K, as well as Roleigh Martin's Web site and a bunch of other places.
To be honest (I know you're not going to like this, but here goes anyway): the most compelling arguments I've seen are from CPR over at Biffy, and from Stephen Poole's Web site. It's like Poole says: thousands of computers fail now, every day, AND MOST OF YOU NEVER EVEN NOTICE (except maybe for an occasional, "call back later, the computers are down" or you have to go to another ATM). That's how little effect it has in the real world.
You lost me, folks. There is NO WAY every computer in NC could have caused as much damage as Floyd. You completely missed Chicken Little's point. I saw it, and I'm just a lurker.
Oh, I'll stock a few cans of food and some batteries for January, because the power could go out for a bit. But that's it. I think anyone who goes beyond that is a maniac.
I'm just being honest. If you think that you're convincing people to "prepare" with your argument, you're wrong. All your doing is convincing the casual lurker (like me) that you're crazy.
Now: bring on the usual dismissals ("don't let the door hit yer ass on the way out" -- which ALSO helps disseminate your viewpoint, yeah, right); I won't be here to enjoy them. Take care ...
-- The Lurker (firstname.lastname@example.org), October 17, 1999.
Good Luck Lurker! I'm sure that most everyone that visits this forum sincerely hopes that you are right in your predictions of the y2k problem. I've given up on the need to be positive in my decisions. After I decided that there was no way I could really know(figure the "odds") and focused instead on the risk of being wrong in my decision to prepare or not...then everything fell into place. The risk of being wrong about the need for y2k preps is too great for me to take when I consider my family responsibilities.
-- jeanne (email@example.com), October 17, 1999.
For the short run, you are probably correct. The hurricanes are worse than computer failures, although if computer failures worldwide contribute to nuclear detonations or chemical explosions near you, you would wish you had the hurricane back. However, for the long run, sustained power outages will make the hurricane look tame. The hurricane may have wiped out your possessions, but I haven't read about many deaths from starvation or dysentary.
-- tim russell (firstname.lastname@example.org), October 17, 1999.
The Lurker commented:
"Oh, I'll stock a few cans of food and some batteries for January, because the power could go out for a bit. But that's it. I think anyone who goes beyond that is a maniac. "
And if your WRONG ?????????
-- Ray (email@example.com), October 17, 1999.
There is a huge difference between Y2K and a natural disaster.
The natural disasters are accompanied by shock, awe of nature, the "Act of God" sense of humble acceptance.
Humanimals will react VERY differently to Y2K, the Blunder of Man.
Rage, fury, betrayal, rampage, opportunistic acting out.
It won't be Mother Nature who has been fooled.
-- Ashton & Leska in Cascadia (firstname.lastname@example.org), October 17, 1999.
"The natural disasters are accompanied by shock, awe of nature, the "Act of God" sense of humble acceptance.
Humanimals will react VERY differently to Y2K, the Blunder of Man. Rage, fury, betrayal, rampage, opportunistic acting out."
That is incorrect. Mexican Nationals have been rioting since the floods. Turks began to riot after the earthquake. Floridans typically riot in lines if the nature made inconvience is bad enough.
*I am also ready and have been for some time. I just keep monkeying about and toying with this or that addition to my preps.
-- Paula (email@example.com), October 17, 1999.
Chicken Little and Lurker,
I don't think anyone was trying to say that Y2K would cause as much destruction as Floyd did. It seems to me that Ed was trying to point out that events like Floyd will slow Y2K remediation efforts in the effected areas, and that all of these events could transpire to cause what otherwise would have been a successful remediation effort to fail.
He also pointed out that despite the fact that he is now experiencing an unexpected early snowstorm, his Y2K preparations have proved useful. I had a similar experience last year. We had several inches of snow which partially melted and then refroze, leaving me iced in to my house for four days. At the time I didn't know how long I'd be iced in, but it felt great knowing I'd be OK because of my preparations.
-- Clyde (firstname.lastname@example.org), October 17, 1999.
Y2K is a completely different kind of event than a hurricane, but "Chicken Little" and "Lurker" don't have the brains to understand that. Or they do have the brains and are in complete denial. Either way, they are DGI's to the core.
-- Ohio Bob (email@example.com), October 17, 1999.
correction- "could transpire" should have said "could conspire"
-- Clyde (firstname.lastname@example.org), October 17, 1999.
Chicken, we've been through this before. Because you've been rescuing defenseless animals, a cause very dear to my bleeding heart, I'll be gentle. You are talking about an isolated disaster in a more or less homogeneous rural area. Yes, I know Goldsboro seems like the big city but it isn't. When you're talking about service disruptions (for any reason) in large cities, there WILL be problems. There were law and order problems here in Durham on the second day without electricity following Fran--I was an unwilling participant in one incident. I have had no other first-hand experience with civil disorder in other cities after disasters; I can only believe that the video footage of looters breaking into homes and stores was real.
There are those of us who have worked in disasters, as you know. In lower Plaquemines Parish after Camille, not a house was left standing, not a tree held leaves, nothing moved except flies--thick, buzzing clouds of them, around and upon the carcasses of bloated and stinking animals. The water line was 14 feet high. We were rescuing animals too.
There are those of us who have been through areas not long after disaster struck, or even years afterwards. When I first came to this country, two years after Betsy, there were still awful signs, like houses and vehicles in the middle of the swamp down at Delacroix Island--a shocking sight to someone brought up in a gentle climate.
There are those of us with vivid imagination and a developed sense of consequence. We remember the terrible sights we've seen, the examples of man's inhumanity to man (especially in large, impersonal cities), the problems that have been painted over rather than fixed, the "botom-line" attitudes. We can imagine very well what it's like in eastern North Carolina and what it could be like in certain areas if, for instance, the water or power fails for more than a day or so. That is precisely why we are concerned about ANY interruption in services due to any reason, including and especially Y2K.
I know you're grieving and angry, but please don't lash out at us and say we have no idea. We really do. I know it's going to be years before down east returns to anything near normal and it will never be as it was. I'm sorry I'm too decrepit to be down there, putting those animals into carriers and taking them to the vet school for care, but I HAVE done my bit in the past and I still help the Hungarian with her rescue jobs.
Here's the latest story from the WRAL (Raleigh) "Project Rebuild" page of their site:
Saturday October 16, 1999 10:03 AM
Floyd's Furry Victims Headed Home, Others Ready for Adoption
RALEIGH (WRAL) -- Just down the street from the N.C. State Fair is the animal field hospital run by N.C State's College of Veterinary Medicine. Pets rescued from Hurricane Floyd are being kept there.
The dogs and cats are ready to go home, and that reunion may come a little easier now. Starting Friday, owners have new avenues for finding their rescued pets. And, if those owners do not show up, these pets also have an avenue for finding a new home.
Daisy is one of the lucky ones. She is among nearly 400 animals who were rescued from the wrath of Floyd.
About 70 animals have been reclaimed so far. To step up the reunions, photo albums of the rescuees can now be found at area animal shelters.
The Vet School has launched a Web site which has pictures and descriptions of the animals in its care.
"We think that after they've had a chance to look at the photographs down there, that there will be a large number of people, based on the phone calls that we've had, that will be able to reclaim their animals," says Dr. Kelli Ferris, director of the NCSU field hospital.
A piglet named Millie is one of the more unusual residents at the shelter. She has just found a home. If the other animals are not claimed, they will need a home, too. All these pets will be up for adoption.
Michelle Merza, a veterinary student at the shelter, already has her eye on this little Abby.
"I like her a lot. She's just so cute you can't resist," says Merza. "But everyone finds someone they like particularly more than the rest, I think. So, she's my baby."
Merza can take Abby home November 1, when the adoptions start.
"There's so many dogs here that'll fit everyone's requirements and they're all wonderful, too. Especially with what they've gone through," says Merza.
If you are looking for your pet, call the field hospital's hotline at (919) 715-9679.
If you are interested in adoption, you are asked to check the Web site first, then call the hotline after November 1.
Information on where and how to make donations to help care for Floyd animals can be obtained by calling the hospital's hot line above. Information on helping human victims can be found via links at the URL listed above.
-- Old Git (email@example.com), October 17, 1999.
Ed: I think the New Mexico weather sent some our way, in Texas. I live in the Dallas area, north of it, really, and we dipped into the 40's last night. Not unHEARD of for mid-October, but pretty darn rare. It is still pretty darn cold today and will stay that way for the next few days. But we fear not. It never ever ever stays like that this darn early. We will be wearing shorts next week and through Halloween, then sweaters and coats (oh, yeah, and pants, too!) the first couple of weeks of November, then it'll be balmy 70's and tank tops and shorts for Turkey Day.
The first time it is cold I get a hankering to organize our daughter's winter weather clothing so I have her try on everything I stored the spring before and it drives her crazy. She is almost 5. THEN it gets warm again and we get back out the summer clothes and she thinks mom is crazy.
Got blankets? We live in a densely populated suburb, so if things are bad, we won't be using the fireplace for a while. Not wanting to advertise.
-- Preparing (firstname.lastname@example.org), October 17, 1999.
Y2K or other eminant events COULD cause major devistation of 1 kind or another. Just look at what might happen on monday. once the market crashes or the dollar looses value. (note the the EU nations & Asia hava removed the US currency from being their reserve backing fund & have switched to gold) that given this those who do not have most of what we percieve a family may need now are SOL.
It is not all about clerks not being able to to mindless tasks.. it is the interelatedness of everything & the general volitility of the world political & financial situations...
-- spectrum (brightlight@Isee.com), October 17, 1999.
It looks as if that weather system contributed to breaking a long spell of unseasonably hot weather here in the Phoenix area. The last few days have been 100+. Yes, I know that living here one should expect heat, but mid October?? Enough already!
With only 42 "federal days" left 'till the End, this Rollover looks more and more like a 'come as you are' party.
Ed, you and your daughter wrote the book. How is Jennifer? If memory serves me correctly, she plans to be in the NYC area. It is facinating that you both would react so differently to a threat that you both seem to agree on. Please give her my warm regards and I am remembering you both in my prayers. Good Luck!!
-- K. Stevens (kstevens@ It's ALL going away in January.com), October 17, 1999.
You are a funny person :o) A few extra batteries and cans of food will not help much if there is a power outage (Y2K or natural) in many of the areas in North America during January. The weather has proved extreme lately and the combination of y2k problems and a natural disaster during the winter will be a very uncomfortable situation in the effected area.
Either you are completely ignorant of the effects of cold or live in an area that will never feel the effects of such a disaster. But simplifying the situation as you do does nothing to get folks to understand that they are much better off preserving their comfort level no matter what happens.
And as far as Chucky and Steve Poole goes, ignorance walks and ignorance talks but when the chips are down where will they be? We are at a point in time where contingency planning is the best defence agianst disruptions of any kind. If everyone planned as you do then in the event of a disaster it will be those folks that will need the help and why? Because they have no idea what it is like to freeze to death.
I have no doubt that propane gear, bug out bags, extra supplies (TP) and awareness how to survive minimally would help out in the aftermath of the floods. There is no doubt that the devistation there is far worse than the effects of Y2K will be. Hoping that folks lives will return to some kind of normal soon.
Differant areas have differant risks though, where I live (west coast BC) will get hit by a 9+ earthquake and the chances are that it will be within the lifetimes of folks that are here today. Scary
Good luck cluck.
-- Brian (email@example.com), October 17, 1999.
I don't believe Ed or any of us have claimed that Y2K would cause the type of PHYSICAL damage you speak about from the hurricanes and flooding. The most devastating aspect of Y2K will of course be ECONOMIC, and that of course has all kinds of subsequent repercussions.
Your primary misconception, as Old Git pointed out, is again due to the old "seeing the trees but not the forest" thing. I don't care how hard your little Pitt County got bombed by the hurricane, they still knew that they could drive over to the next county to get money, food, or gasoline. The scale and saturation of Y2K into so many aspects of our lives over such an extensive area is something that will not be able to be cleaned up in a couple of weeks. This thing is going to hurt for years, and it isn't going to hurt just in Pitt County, it's going to hurt all over the WORLD.
-- @ (@@@.@), October 18, 1999.
Regarding the question about the wind towers, don't put them on your rooftop. The vibration will annoy everyone in the house, and the machine won't make as much power if it has to contend w/ the turbulence created by the house.
Do it right and get your windmachine mounted on a tower, even a small one, located a reasonable distance from your house. Ask the company that you bought it from for installation tips.
see www.jademountain.com www.realgoods.com www.alt-energy.com
-- mark (firstname.lastname@example.org), October 18, 1999.
You all sit here and say Chicken Little and Lurker are wrong. Oh how can you compare a natural disaster to the almighty-Y2K! Grow up.
Let's all take a stroll down memory lane shall we? Summer of 1993, the Mid-West, every river is rising and it is getting worse daily. I have a weekend event in Chicago I must attend. I cross the Mighty Miss (the Mississippi for those not in the know) into Quincy,IL. The water is lapping away at the Missouri-to-Illinois bridge's belly. I know by the time I return in a few days it will be closed. My family laughs at me. They call me the next night in Chicago and tell me the bridge has closed.
Flash forward three days, I am ready to leave Chicago. My train is delayed by 90 minutes. My crew got caught on the other side of the Mighty Miss, a new train crew is found and we are under way. 3 hours into the ride, my crew has worked it's max number of hours and the train stops while another crew is brought out to us. After another 90 minute delay we are under way. I arrive in Quincy 3 hours late, my family begs me to spend the night due to my being tired and I have a long drive to home still. I roll the dice and decide to cross the Illinois-to-Missouri bridge. It has been made into a lane each way to accomadate the loss of the Missouri-to-Illinois bridge. I make it home.
What does this show? Quickly changing situations with rapid responses.
Now flash forward to later in the Summer. My town is not got a major river to close, so we are staying dry, however, we are cut off on EVERY side. We can NOT get out. Every bridge is gone, no trains, no semis unless they go upwards of 6 hours around the water. Even then it is iffy and they may not be allowed to cross due to the excessive weight on the makeshift birms. Every thing is now coming by air. Towns are now having to survive on their own. Grocery store shelves are beginning to look rather bare here and there. Drinking water is getting scarace
End result? Untold amounts of property damage. Not one food riot, not one water riot, not one human-upon-human death due to shortages. People with destroyed houses on the front lines with people better off fighting the rivers. The waters were above flood stage for over 4 months most places. The damage is STILL visible to this day in a lot of places.
However, all of you who have not been through this sort of stuff can sit here and judge the likes of Chicken Little, Lurker and myself. Good for you. You can call us "DGI's" or whatever name you like, however we know what things are like when the chips are down. So because our worldview doesn't match up with the likes of the majority of people on this thread, we are ridiculed. You haven't bothered to ask us if we have preps, you just assume you know who we are. Think again. If you bothered to get to know any of us, or even speak in a civil manner, you might learn that most of us have well stocked pantries just simply due to where we live. Tuesday I am making a run to my Sam's Club...my Sam's Club only because it is the closest one to me. A 180 mile round trip. I will be stocking up for me usual several months because I don't relish the drive any more than I have to make it.
The majority of you sit around and talk about the "spoiled herd" and how they won't know what to do when all "this" comes down. How about you all move out of your posh little areas of existance, and see how the true majority of the population, the rural folks, live every day. We will see how the "DGI's" are.
-- Loves The Rural Life (email@example.com), October 18, 1999.
Seeing how you basically got the whole story backwards, I would guess that you haven't been reading the forum long enough to know any of us, and we've never seen you post before, so how the hell are we supposed to get to know you?
Now, when I say you got everything backwards, let start with Chicken Little and Lurker. THEY came onto this thread saying that WE were all WRONG, so don't go whining because we then showed them that they were the ones who were wrong.
Next, we didn't say that the damage from a natural disaster wasn't a tragic thing, we said that Y2K will happen on a LARGER scale, and affect a lot MORE people.
Then, you said that those who are not living in these harsh rural areas like yourself have it so much better than you. Again, to the CONTRARY, we have made it painfully clear that the LARGER the city, the more likely they are to be in very serious TROUBLE when Y2K hits. In fact, if your nearest major market is 90 miles away, you should consider yourself lucky, because you're probably in an area of very high survivability for Y2K. (Just make sure you get more than your usual supply of goods before next year.)
You're not the only one who has some sob stories to tell... don't you think that pretty much EVERYONE experiences some tragedy in their lives, REGARDLESS of WHERE they live??
-- @ (@@@.@), October 18, 1999.
"I would guess that you haven't been reading the forum long enough to know any of us, and we've never seen you post before, so how the hell are we supposed to get to know you?"
Been reading it for over a year. And I have been around, just first time under this name and that is all that needs to be said on that. A friend of mine who was a regualer poster (he's left the board since) turned me on to it, I just don't post much.
"Now, when I say you got everything backwards, let start with Chicken Little and Lurker. THEY came onto this thread saying that WE were all WRONG, so don't go whining because we then showed them that they were the ones who were wrong. "
You (as in all the folks other than CL and Lurker)didn't show them to be wrong at all. You all expressed opinions. CL and I talk from personal experiances.
"Next, we didn't say that the damage from a natural disaster wasn't a tragic thing, we said that Y2K will happen on a LARGER scale, and affect a lot MORE people. "
And I was showing you that a regional disaster can be just as devestating. In my case we were literally cut off from the rest of the world. It was next to impossible for anyone to come in and help us. We were on our own.
"Then, you said that those who are not living in these harsh rural areas like yourself have it so much better than you. Again, to the CONTRARY, we have made it painfully clear that the LARGER the city, the more likely they are to be in very serious TROUBLE when Y2K hits."
I am talking every day life.
"You're not the only one who has some sob stories to tell... don't you think that pretty much EVERYONE experiences some tragedy in their lives, REGARDLESS of WHERE they live?? "
I never said any such thing, nor would I ever suppose to say such a thing.
The basis of this whole argument is unless you are living through something like CL is, or like I did back in 1993, don't go supposing that you (again the group as a whole) know that Y2K will be unlike one of these "regional" disasters. Take a look at the fllod maps from 93, you would be hard pressed to convince those of us that lived through it that it was "regional". Out here we do have a different view of the world and I think that is where a lot of this comes from.
-- Loves The Rural Life (firstname.lastname@example.org), October 18, 1999.
Guess you weren't in Chicago for the first Bulls championship, LA for the Rodney King verdict or Denver for the Superbowl win? People love an excuse to riot and loot. I've been through floods and people tend to band together to fight mother nature. New Years will bring lots of partying, and maybe some power failures? Do you want to be in NYC Times Square with over a million people and have the lights go out? Or Washington D.C. in the mall listening to the comand performance, when some rag head decides it's a good night to let loose some anthrax virus?
Going to stay home and have a nice relaxing night in front of the TV? What happens Monday when the gasoline truck doesn't make it to your local station, by Friday all the gas in a 100 radius is gone. The TV news tells you the banks have shut down to wait for more cash to be delivered. You and your friends start to hear of people rioting and looting in East St. Louis, now the Illinois State Police and National Guard have shut down the bridges to St. Louis. Hope your'e on the right side of the Ole Miss, when the folks from East St. Louis decide to look for food in other areas. Don't worry be happy, they are friendly folks just looking for a little food now that the stores have been looted and the stamps aren't coming in the mail. Wish you had bought that shotgun right about now? The people of Beverly Hills never thought the folks from Compton would come to visit, but they almost did. This may or may not happen, but if there is a chance, isn't it worth a little bit of time and money to prepare?
-- Bill (email@example.com), October 18, 1999.
R - On the 2nd day of power outage due to Hurricane Fran:
1. Fight at Home Depot over delivery of 50 generators and far more people than that waiting in line.
2. Fight at a gas station when the gas ran out.
3. Almost a fight when this old git got the last bag of ice from a delivery at the local Kroger. The person next in line, my would-be attacker, held back by her husband, was a perfectly nicely-dressed matron probably from Croasdaile (an expensive subdivision up the road).
Just two days without power. And those were just the incidents I personally knew of.
-- Old Git (firstname.lastname@example.org), October 18, 1999.
No kidding. Hell-oooooo? Reality check. I've been shoved and had the 'blue light special' wool socks stripped from my hands in a K-Mart during the Christmas shopping season!!!!
People suck. I thank the lord every morning when I wake up on this farm. MY neighbors will be helpful. They have strong morals, sound ethics, high ideals, good character, and are hard working, red, white and blue Americans.
How 'bout your neighbors, city folk? Certainly something to think about, isn't it?
-- Will continue (email@example.com), October 19, 1999.
You know, I think I have finally figured out why I dislike this forum an dregret every time I come here. You folks have to have every little detail spelled out for you. For someone to post something here that would not be questioned in anyway, it would have to resemble a legal document and be at least as long as War And Peace.
However, when someone does post something of a dessenting view, you are all over it because it is SO obvious the person "doesn't get it" because they did not mention something specifically. I mention most of us have well stocked pantries, I get suggestions of isn't worth it to invest some in preperations. HUL-LO what does well stocked pantry mean?
Won't I wish I had bought a shotgun when East St. Louis riots? Well let's see, #1 I am nowhere near East St. Louis. #2 How do you know I don't have a shotgun? You don't. You assume because it is so obvious I DGI. Wake up and come out to the midwest. You would have an easier time figuring out who has less than 3 guns than who has none at all.
What I was trying to point out was there ARE similarities between a natural disaster and Y2K, but that point was lost long ago because you all would rather pick on me personally because I don't fit into your clique. You all feel the need to educate me because I am just a poor simple DGI. Whatever. You all cry when someone attacks the messenger and not the message such as in Gary North. Hello Kettle? This is the Pot, your black.
But because I didn't address every possible scenario, and answer every one of your (as in the whole group) questions, I am a moron who is a DGI and will die. Gee, I guess 1 + 1 really does equal 3 Mr. Wizard.
-- Loves The Rural Life (firstname.lastname@example.org), October 19, 1999.
Thoughts, reflections, followups, replies.
You said "you can't make an equal comparison between your flooding and Y2K." You're so right. That's exactly the point. Y2k can't do anything even close to what this flood has done; yet people in general, the utilities, and the other 'powers that be' here have found ways to get by, and to keep on keeping on, defying all the odds. That's just the point. Y2k, by all sensible accounts (even Mr. Yourdon's, BTW), will not be the disaster it was once formerly thought to be. Conditions in eastern NC are presently MUCH worse than ANYTHING Y2k could possibly throw at us; yet people are cooperating and helping one another, the power and drinking water are flowing, we have food and gasoline.
The remainder of your statements are quite ridiculous.
I certainly am not "blind...still looking for the golden happy face". You seem to forget, or perhaps never knew, that I once was a Doomer myself....was an '8 on the scale of 10' a year and a half ago. I certainly know "the potential for complete disaster" that Y2k possessed THEN. I also know that such potential no longer exists.
You say I'm a DGI; nope. I'm a former-what-you-would-call-a-GI. Now am a WUSTCANJPD, which means 'Woke Up, Smelled The Coffee, And Now Just Plain Disagree'. From an informed viewpoint, I might add. Seen both sides, and like this one much better. Not just from an emotional point of view, but from the factual one as well.
You said "for the long run, sustained power outages will make the hurricane look tame." Complete silliness. First, that presupposes LONG power outages, a proposition that has been pretty well ruled out by most anyone who knows anything about the delivery of electricity. In the developed nations, anyway. I guess it just flew right over your head that this disaster caught the utilities here (and everyone else) COMPLETELY by surprise, yet the utilities were able to get a handle on it very quickly, in most areas. Emphasis on the phrase "completely by surprise". Y2k is an issue that the utilities have known about for YEARS, and one that will be caused by a mere computer glitch; not by a killer hurricane/flood event the like of which has not been seen in the U.S. since Columbus discovered America. Why, then, shouldn't the utilities be able to deal with Y2k? If they can deal effectively with something that was totally unforeseen, under the most severe physical circumstances, why shouldn't they be able to deal with something they've known about for years? Huh?
((Side note: the other night, one of the resident self-proclaimed experts, Sysman, challenged me on this point, saying, in so many words, "so what does that have to do with computers?" Well here's what. One local utility lost its main distribution station under six feet of water. INCLUDING **COMPUTERS** THAT CONTROL THE DISTRIBUTION OF POWER FOR OVER 100,000 PEOPLE. They were able to work around that. Reroute. Power was lost for not quite 24 hours. That's all. Not even a full day. It was a Band-Aid solution, but it worked. That was over 4 weeks ago, and they haven't lost power yet.))
Secondly, there has been NO event in the entire history of this planet, this side of Noah's Flood, that would make this Floyd event look "tame". James Lee Witt, the director of FEMA, upon seeing the situation here firsthand, was quoted in local media as saying he's never seen anything as bad as the devastation here. Your comment again shows that people in other places just don't have a very clear idea about what's gone on here.
Have to disagree with the "sense of humble acceptance" concept. We're fighting like hell to get back to normal, tooth and nail, so to speak. Tar-Heel-born are fighters by nature; don't take much of nothin' sittin' down, natural or man-made. Gen. Robert E. Lee hung the name "Tar Heel" on us, because our guys stuck around in a fierce fight, when all others had fled. Seems to be an inborn instinct.
But we're not fighting each other in this thing. We're pulling together. "Family" has always been real strong here, even in recent years, despite the decline in that value generally. I think that's really helping in this crisis.
BTW, I still remember your kind words the other night. Thanks.
Certainly you're right about how people react to adverse circumstances in some places. Just hope that isn't the case in general, all over everywhere. Somehow I don't think it is. It certainly isn't here. The effect on people in general has been amazing. People who normally wouldn't talk to each other strike up conversations, where normally they would just walk on by. It's brought out the best in people, by and large. Hope that's not just a local characteristic (again, I don't think it is).
Point taken. But one thing I'm trying to get at here is that Y2k has taken a back seat to current events here, even among people who are Y2k-aware (myself included). Present long post notwithstanding. (More on the reasons for that later)
Another thing I'm trying to get at is that recent events here have shown that Y2k remediation is not as important as some have tried to make it out to be. In other words, inconveniences/glitches/bugs/disasters can be WORKED AROUND. They can. They have been. They will be. There's verifiable, real-world, disaster-situation proof now; not just theorizing. To me, that's good news.
Here we go again. You were gentle, so I'll be too. Honor amongst animal lovers, I reckon.
(1) Goldsboro isn't "big city" to me; where'd you get that. Have buddies in DC and NYC; visit from time to time. Know "big city" when I sees it. Goldsboro ain't it, by any stretch.
(2) however, eastern NC isn't quite the backwater you seem to believe. Greenville ranked #8 in the USA in the recent Milken Institute report under the heading "Change in High-Tech Manufacturing 1978-1998"; #5 in "High- Tech Industry (Drugs)"; and #49 in "Top 50 Metros, by Adjusted Relative Growth"
(source: here it be)
East Carolina University's Medical School Dean, James Hallock, was named chairman of the Council of Deans of the Association of American Medical Colleges last November. That means he presides over the deans of all the medical colleges in the U.S. of A., including the deans at Harvard, Yale, Johns Hopkins, Stanford. And Duke, in Durham. No small designation.
(read about it here)
Also in eastern NC are Seymour Johnson Air Force Base; Cherry Point Marine Corps Air Station; Camp Lejeune Marine Corps Base; and Fort Bragg, the largest Army base in the United States of America.
So eastern NC isn't quite the small little backwater some seem to think it is.
I'm sorry you experienced problems in Durham after Fran. But I have to believe that was an isolated incident, to which you were unfortunately a party. Stuff happens.
I'm grieving a bit, yeah. Coupla friends dead. But I'm not angry (except at idiots like @). Nothing to be angry at. What good would it do? Numb, yes. Not trying to "lash out", though. Just my personality I suppose, if you've perceived such. Have tried to be restrained on this thread. (Not a given on other threads, though, as you well know. On both our parts, eh.)
I still maintain that people west of I-95 do not have a clear idea of what's going on here, and I know this for fact. Have talked to many local people who have left the local area, gone up to see friends/relatives west of here to get the heck away from this mess....when they get back, they all say, "those people up there have no idea." People in the Triangle area, where you are. Yep. My first cousin lives in Raleigh, and STILL says she'd only have about 50% of an idea, from the media, if I hadn't been telling her the eyewitness stuff. She sees the same news you see, reads the same papers you read.
** Why do I keep hammering on that? Just to drive home the point that things here are **MUCH worse than you folks know, **BUT we're still making it through; **MUCH worse than any Y2k scenario could ever be, **BUT we're still making it through. That's why.
You get Idiot-of-the-Month Award, as well as Heartless Bastard designation. You said, "I don't care how hard your little Pitt County got bombed by the hurricane, they still knew that they could drive over to the next county to get money, food, or gasoline."
For your information, Sir Poop for Brains, this thing hit the next county, and the next, and the next. And the one past that. 66 North Carolina counties were designated major disaster areas by the federal government. There are 100 counties in the whole state. Get it? The counties east of I-95 should have been designated double-major, but such a thing doesn't exist.
Another fact blowing county-sized holes in your theory is that, indeed, there were places within the county where one could go to get the commodities you note. In other places just 10 miles away, they couldn't be had at any price. Who knew. In other words, ya just don't know what it's like to live in a full-blown disaster area, UNTIL YOU'VE DONE IT YOURSELF.
I've done that now. Am doing it as I type this. You haven't, and aren't. So where do you get your information, to where you think you know so damn much? HUH?
"Your primary misconception" (to quote you) is that you think you have a clue. YOU DON'T. Go see Vanna & Pat, and buy one. Then you might have a faint idea. Maybe.
Lurker & Rural: 10-4. Glad you aren't blinded by the Meme.
Q. "Why has CL spent all this time typing all this?"
A. "In light of the fact that Doomers predict a veritable disaster come 1-1-2000, based on THEORY ONLY; he just thought it might be enlightening for people to have a good glimpse of a REAL-LIFE bigtime disaster, as told by a person who's living right dead in the middle of one, a scant 73 days before The Rollover."
-- Chicken Little (email@example.com), October 19, 1999.
Chicken Little, thanks for your posts. We feel that by watching natural disasters and their aftermaths, one can find real clues as to real-life preparation advisories.
Did Irene drench you? Do you see any effects of Irene?
Our use of the "sense of humble acceptance" phrase was in regards to the attitude of meeker "Act Of God" reaction. Normally people do not fly into vengeful rages at Nature. They go through the Anger phase more quickly than in a homicide/human blunder catastrophe.
We didn't mean that after a natural disaster ppl sit around and do nothing! Fighting back hard to clean up and return life to "normal" is the inner heroic response that Mother Nature's dervils often elicit. But when man is clearly to blame, usually the first and lasting response is one of raging resentful revenge.
-- Ashton & Leska in Cascadia (firstname.lastname@example.org), October 19, 1999.
-- cpr (email@example.com), September 17, 2000.
MORE ON THE ******BRAIN WARPING*********http://www.greenspun.com/bboard/q-and-a-fetch-msg.tcl?msg_id=001axLChicken Little, another thought here. We believe a person's perception of Y2K outcomes is colored by their life experiences.
Based on technical reports, we believe Y2K will be @ 5, with some major nuclear meltdowns and hazmat horrifications in addition to general pissed-off inconvenienced and unemployed people everywhere.
But what pushes us to a 9, which is where we are now, is our observations about humanimal behavior.
We are, or maybe were, gentle, loving, caring, generally happy-go- lucky little folks. We have watched in absolute horror the destruction of the sharing of all our ideals in this world throughout this lifetime. Won't go into it all here, but suffice it to say that, to top it all off, we are sick of watching wonderful, sweet patients, utterly vulnerable on their deathbeds, utterly trusting in the goodness of their family and hospice nurses and MSWs, get deliberately overdosed into lower astral mental nightmare hell and murder by rapacious egotistical money-power mad predator "caregivers."
If you want to see the conniving ugly underside of poisonous toad people, who go wild at the thought of causing death and getting their hands on "inheritance" and "control," work with us for a month.
God has taken mercy on us lately and given us non-hospice jobs. One more soon after the last murder and we wouldn't have had the reserves to be so sweet to the, hhmmm, restraint, restraint!
Chicken, in many ways you, who are so tough, are tender and innocent. We pray that you not learn in this lifetime the real underbelly of humanimal nature.
-- Ashton & Leska in Cascadia (firstname.lastname@example.org), October 19, 1999.
Chicken, I didn't mean to imply that down east is a backwater. I just wanted to point out that Goldbsoro is not Detroit, Los Angeles, or Newark--or even Durham--where you can logically expect some disorder under extraordinary circumstances. And I think the large military presence (whose members are a bit more disciplined than the general public) and the homogeneous nature of the population has everything to do with orderly conduct. As for your friends not completely understanding or knowing what's going on, I have no answer. I only know I understand and I do know what's going on.
That said, folks, please be aware that Chicken and many others are under the gun once more:
Monday October 18, 1999 06:14 PM
Hoke Dam Breaks; Eastern N.C. Assesses Storm
RAEFORD (WRAL) -- Some Hoke County residents are dealing with a nasty effect of Hurricane Irene -- a dam broke Monday morning, leading to evacuations and damage to homes.
Sunset Lake Dam broke around 10:45 a.m. Hoke County sheriff's deputies evacuated homes downstream. The evacuees were taken to East Hoke Middle School.
There's a strong possibility dozens of houses will flood. Deputies are urging people to stay away from the Davis Bridge community.
The Hoke County situation demonstrates that while Irene may be gone, her memory lingers on as residents of eastern North Carolina endure flood- related problems. Emergency shelters opened Sunday night in many counties west of I-95, and evacuation orders and curfews were in place for some low-lying areas.
The eastern coastal plain, still waterlogged from Hurricane Floyd's record flood waters, is vulnerable to further flooding.
As Irene moved away from land, the National Weather Service dropped hurricane warnings at 11 p.m. Sunday.
Dangerous rip currents are still possible today, and anyone planning a beach trip should be very cautious. A small craft advisory continues. Small craft should not venture out on the water.
A number of accidents have been reported due to rain and flooded roads. Emergency managers are advising motorists to avoid Interstates 40 and 95. A mudslide has closed US 401 near Lafayette Ford in Hoke County.
Many secondary roads are closed and the Department of Transportation reports 95 roads are still closed due to Hurricane Floyd.
As creeks and rivers like the Neuse and Tar rise, flash flooding will make the roads even more dangerous.
A tornado spawned by the hurricane touched down near Elizabeth City around 7 p.m. Authorities say it downed power lines and trees and may have damaged some mobile homes in the area. No injuries have been reported.
Three hundred National Guardsmen were on duty Sunday night. Ten water rescue teams are on standby and 39 Guard armories are open as shelters.
State emergency managers say thousands of people are spending the night in shelters, many of them flooded out of their homes by Hurricane Floyd and forced from temporary trailers set up by FEMA.
At Atlantic Beach, rain had slowed by evening -- and the forecast was for clearing across the entire area for today.
But before circumstances changed, county emergency management officials made very attempt to minimize injuries and property losses.
Brunswick County issued a mandatory evacuation for the entire county. Bald Head Island, Oak Island, Caswell Beach, Holden Beach, Ocean Isle Beach, and Sunset Beach issued mandatory evacuation orders.
Shelters opened in many areas, ferry service ceased and bridges closed.
The storm also led organizers to close the N.C. Oyster Festival in Shallotte prematurely.
The town of Kure Beach was closed to all non-residents as of 11:45 Sunday morning. Town officials are also encouraging citizens to stay in their homes and off the roads.
Officials in Topsail Beach ordered a mandatory evacuation at 7 Sunday morning and the town was closed at 3 p.m. After that time, people were not permitted into the town, and those who stayed were restricted to their private property.
All federal and state disaster recovery centers that opened in the aftermath of Hurricane Floyd closed Sunday and Monday. FEMA officials say they do not want anyone travelling through the heavy rain and possible flooding caused by Irene. Recovery centers are expected to reopen Tuesday at 8 a. m.
American Red Cross Service Centers across the state were also closed Sunday because of the hurricane.
In an interview Sunday with WRAL-TV5 News, North Carolina Secretary of Crime Control and Public Safety, Richard Moore, said erosion is still a concern along the North Carolina coast. He said some houses may be toppled.
And Moore said money will be there to rebuild and that, "We are not going to stop until eastern North Carolina is back on its feet."
Chicken, is there anything you need and can't get that I could obtain here for you--for you or the animals? If so, let me know through Diane. Also, if you're ever up Durham way, please let me know that too.
-- Old Git (email@example.com), October 19, 1999.
Best wishes and prayers to CL.
I'm terribly sorry about the loss of your friends.... God be with you, Sir.
-- lisa (firstname.lastname@example.org), October 19, 1999.
Normally don't come back to threads once having posted, but put a bit of thought into this one.
A&L: can certainly see what you're saying. Have seen people (family people) act really weird when confronted with death. Have been through much more than my share of the deaths of family members, & friends, in my time. (Why, I don't know. Just have.) But I still hang onto a bit of faith in humanity. Sorry you've lost so much of yours. (So it seems to me from what you say...please correct if wrong)
Git: though we'll never agree on everything, I do recognize and appreciate your efforts to publicize the plight of the eastern third of the state. Hope all's well up your way.
Lisa: thank you. A lot of people around here need His help much worse than I do. But He knows that, and has been coming through where He's needed. Has been working through a lot of good people.
Irene came and went, and didn't come inland (whew). Good bit of rain, though; rivers are rising, some flooding going on again. But nothing like last month. As long as Jose doesn't come here (and they say it won't even threaten the U.S. at all, hope they're right), we'll be OK. Though 'back to normal' won't come for months, in some cases years. That's life.
-- Chicken Little (email@example.com), October 21, 1999.
-- cpr (firstname.lastname@example.org), September 17, 2000.
The key question about bad data was discussed in far more detail on csy2k than on TB2K, because there were more IT people there. That question was, in essence, "What functional difference is there between y2k-induced bad data and all the other bad data we've encountered and programmed against in the past?"
Nobody was ever able to show that bad data due to y2k was *qualitatively* different from what we've seen before. Nobody was ever able to devise any reasonable scenario where sequential corruption could cause problems not immediately obvious. The only potentially valid doomer argument was that bad data, while immediately obvious, would be so common that its wholesale rejection would cripple essential communication channels.
Tests therefore focused on two aspects of communication -- to make sure the data were properly formatted, and to make sure properly formatted bad data were eliminated (for all practical purposes) on the sending end, and trapped on the receiving end. These tests were effective in finding and eliminating anything remediation had missed. Bad data that can't get past step one poses no danger to step two.
Such test results were, as you recall, more than the doomers could stand. They began demanding universal, independent 3rd party IV&V. In a couple of cases this was actually performed, only to have the doomers claim the IV&V couldn't possibly have been independent enough or universal enough to suit them. Like doomer fears generally, this one certainly wasn't relinquished merely because it was demonstrably false. The Doom Must Go On!
So in general, the *amount* of bad data was greatly exaggerated, and the mechanisms long in place to handle it were fully sufficient. Yet another case where a global fear marched on despite our total inability to find a single actual instance anywhere. I remember Bradley Sherman saying, "If this is so common it will bring systems of systems down, surely someone can find even just ONE case somewhere as a real illustration." And nobody ever could.
-- Flint (email@example.com), September 17, 2000.
Thank you, Flint, that indeed makes sense. (And thanks for taking the time to wade through all the trash that was posted right above your great response.)
-- King of Spain (firstname.lastname@example.org), September 17, 2000.
TRASH?? SOMEONE WHO **DE-BUNKS YOU......POSTS TRASH***
CHERRI WAS CORRECT. You are about as "sincere" in apologizing as a CARNIVAL HUCKSTER CAUGHT PLAYING 3 CARD MONTE WITHOUT A PEA. MY TURN.........WHO **DO YOU WORK FOR "spain"??****
WHO DO YOU "usually" SHILL FOR?
SEE.........its "trash". EXAMPLES OF PEOPLE WHO ***TOLD*** YOU IT WAS "GONNA BE OK** ARE "DISMISSED".
"Generalizations" now that "nobody then could demonstrate a system" are accepted by you as NON-TRASH.
FACT.........the data and facts from people working on the problem were PRESENTED AND DISMISSED AS :
"NOT ENOUGH PROOF"
OR........as you just showed: "******TRASH****".
-- cpr (email@example.com), September 17, 2000.
I realize that you probably won't listen to this, but I feel I must try anyway. CPR, you are not a hero who has saved the country from the menace of the "doomers". There never was such a menace. It is completely imaginary. You are a real estate salesman with no "special powers". You are completely unimportant except to yourself and your friends, if you have any. Your delusions of grandeur and your delusions of persecution indicate that you are seriously ill and need help right away ... before you start acting out your fantasies in "real life" and hurt yourself or someone else. Please seek counseling immediately, for everyone's sake.
-- ABC (firstname.lastname@example.org), September 17, 2000.
You don't know CPR as well as we do. By asking a question that has to do with Y2K, you triggered a paranoid flashback reaction in the schizoid creeper. He immediately has hallucinations, thinking that the "doomzies" are going to destroy his perfect little illusion, so he goes into a fit of aggressive denial.
We would recommend that you do not discuss anything that could trigger a fear-based reaction in this very disturbed person.
-- cyber freud (email@example.com), September 17, 2000.
cyber freud: Well, hey, the thread title does clearly indicate that my question was directed to "techies", so you would THINK that he would take the hint. Guess not.
-- King of Spain (firstname.lastname@example.org), September 17, 2000.
Goodness, I've been away for a few days and it appears that there are more fights here than a Raiders game!
I always smile a little about the "corrupt data" theory. As Flint pointed out, our systems both generate and receive corrupt data everyday. We spend a lot of time making fallbacks so the systems still run. The whole date thing also struck me as a little odd - it's hard to believe people with any international programming experience ever took this seriously. Do you know how many date formats are in use all over the world? I don't either, but I've programmed at least 10 different formats, and that was just for the English speaking world. We've been getting various systems with wildly different date formats to talk to each other for a long time - Y2K was just another possible date format to us.
-- Jim Cooke (JJCooke@yahoo.com), September 18, 2000.
One of the problems with that theory is the perpetrators of it (I.e. North and Co.) thought that everything was much more linked together than it really is. From their various writing I gathered the impression they thought the world was much more run by computers then it really is.
-- The Engineer (email@example.com), September 18, 2000.