greenspun.com : LUSENET : TB2K spinoff uncensored : One Thread

See the hypocrit in action on The REAL CPR thread.....

creep, dont 4get the food line only costs $12.00..!!!!!

You DOG!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!1

-- consumer (shh@aol.com), September 15, 2000



SHAKEY and PAIN back ......where's "hawk" and what name is IT using now? GAWD ITS Hell OR .......is it?


http://hv.greenspun.com/bboard/q-and-a-post-reply-form.tcl AND.......WHY is "shakey" here again?


-- cpr (buytexas@swbell.net), September 15, 2000.

Hypocrit, got you scared now dont I?

How DOES it feel?

And...dont 4get the food service line, its only 12.00.

PS, bring your raincoat....*tee hee*


-- consumer (shh@aol.com), September 15, 2000.



---------- From: Institute for Global Futures Research (IGFR) Subject: Global Futures Bulletin #89 Date: Tuesday, August 31, 1999 2:20AM _______________________________________________________ ******************************************************** GLOBAL FUTURES BULLETIN #89 ---01 Aug, 1999--- ISSN 1328-5157 ---------------------------------------------------------------------- ------ Institute for Global Futures Research (IGFR). P.O. Box 263E, Earlville, QLD 4870, Australia. E-mail: . ---------------------------------------------------------------------- ------ This bulletin is for the use of IGFR members and GFB subscribers only and is not to be re-posted. ________________________________________________________ ******************************************************** * * INDEX . Urban food production versus transport energy . Trident protests continue . Y2k review (part 1) . Y2k risk of nuclear failure et al . Y2k and food . Y2k and oil . Y2k and global recession . Megatrends in technology . Erratum . Calendar * * URBAN FOOD PRODUCTION VERSUS TRANSPORT ENERGY Alan Pears Regarding the debate in the Global Futures Bulletin (eg #82, #84) on 'green city' versus 'low-energy city' [1] : Essentially, it is reasonable to increase food production in cities *as long as it does not increase urban transport activity*. So rooftop gardens, converting aesthetic gardens into productive ones, etc is fine. But as soon as you replace buildings with food production area you increase urban transport energy consumption, which is a problem. The claim that local food production offsets large amounts of transport energy is simply not valid. Part of the reason people overestimate this effect is that they use a tenfold adjustment to the energy content of the food to estimate energy savings. In reality, this estimate includes many other elements. A person eats about 550 kg of food each year. If this is transported by articulated truck (at 0.09 kg CO2/tonne-km) for, say, 100km, that's 5 kg CO2/an. Even if the truck returned empty, that's 10 kg of CO2/an and even if the person ate an awful lot, that's 20 kg CO2/an - compared with 8 tonnes CO2/an for an average household's home energy use and 6 tonnes CO2/an for its car use. In contrast, if I buy an extra freezer to store my urban produce, it will generate around 500 kg CO2/an from its electricity consumption. Also: - urban gardens are typically much less productive than larger scale food production because of overshadowing and lack of optimal management. - urban gardens have a high incidence of overuse of chemicals, because the people who run them are often not very skilled. Energy content of food supply (~1974) [2] farm energy 9% transport to shops 6% processing 21% packaging 11% sales 8% car use (purchasing) 12% home refrigeration 17% home cooking 16% According to the data above 45% of the energy use is at the household. There is substantial scope to reduce fossil fuel dependence of all stages of this process, but possibly the most difficult ones to get right in sustainability terms would be the household elements. * [1] See in particular Gunther Folke 'Cities, energy and nutrients' GFB #82 15 Apr 1999; and Peter Newman 'Reconciling 'green city' and 'low-energy city'' GFB #84 15 May 1999; but also Peter Newman 'Cities and 'smart growth'' GFB #79 01 Mar 1999; Ted Trainer 'Smart growth' 15 Mar 1999; Peter Newman 'Cities that reduce resource use and waste' GFB #81 01 Apr 1999. [2] Gifford and Millington, CSIRO, Australia, ~1974. * COMMENT The calculations above of CO2 from rural produce, as opposed to urban produce, only include CO2 from transport., but other factors could be included. Urban production could be less mechanised as labor-intensive community gardens incorporate recreational and therapeutic function (say 8% saving), transport virtually eliminated (say 5% saving), much of the processing and packaging eliminated (eg need to refrigerate, say 14% saving), and home refrigeration less important because fresh fruit and vegetables have a longer shelf life (say 3% saving) - for a possible 31% CO2 and energy saving. On the otherhand, urban food production could only hope to offset a small percentage of total urban food requirements. The required cost-benefit calculation of CO2 and energy savings per hectare urban food production versus CO2 and energy costs per hectare of urban expansion, still remains difficult to ascertain. It is likely, however, that the main rationale for urban food production would be recreational, therapeutic, health, aesthetic, educational, rather than CO2 and energy savings. There are many other factors including compact development, public transit, efficient hybrid vehicles which would result in CO2 and energy credits that would allow for more urban food production. As Alan Pears suggests above, there are numerous opportunities which would not require such CO2 and energy credits such as rooftops, high-rise balconies, areas within schoolgrounds and public parks, parts of areas surrounding public and private buildings, private gardens, footpaths, as well as leftover or 'dead' space (in Japan, market gardening within freeway intersection clover leaves and other margins is not uncommon). Tom Osher makes the astounding claim that 100% of urban food requirements could theoretically be produced in cities, and advocates 'vertical gardening' and 'aerponics' [1]. * [1] Osher, Tom personal communication, April 1999. * {18. urban development} * * * TRIDENT PROTESTS CONTINUE Arrests continue at the Faslane naval base, a Trident nuclear submarine base in the UK. The number of arrests has reached 86 including men and women, both middle-aged and adolescent, and from a variety of countries [1]. Opponents of the protests argue varying combinations of the following: - nuclear proliferation is impossible to stop - nuclear weapons are part of the strategy to maintain world order (Pax Americana) and are a form of insurance against other weapons of mass destruction - disarmament must take place on a multilateral, not unilateral basis Supporters of the protests argue varying combinations of the following: - use of nuclear weapons is far less likely following disarmament and abolition - protests will raise awareness and exert political pressure increasing the likelihood of both unilateral and multilateral disarmament - unilateral disarmament by the UK will make no difference to the security of the UK or NATO countries, but would boost the nuclear disarmament process which has not only stalled but regressed in 1999. - the best form of security against weapons of mass destruction (WMD) is to enforce their illegality under international law and monitor for illegal development - rather than cling to the current world order in the fear it could worsen, we must strive for an improved world order in the belief that it can become more democratic and just. On 8th July 1996 the International Court of Justice concluded that nuclear weapons are immoral, dangerous, polluting, a terrible waste of resources, and were found to be 'generally illegal'. [2] * [1] For updates on the Faslane Trident protest see http://www.gn.apc.org/tp2000/ [2] 'Nuclear disarmament by 2000' Global Futures Bulletin #68 01 June 1998. * {2. peace and conflict resolution} * * * Y2K REVIEW (PART 1) As 01 Jan 2000 approaches, we review the y2k crisis in a two-part series. Part 2 follows in Global Futures Bulletin #90. * Y2K RISK OF NUCLEAR FAILURE ET AL Authorities continue to assert that the risk of an accidental launch of nuclear missiles anywhere in the world due to y2k malfunction is virtually zero. False alerts of incoming missiles is more likely but could be correlated with other detection centres for verification to avoid mistaken retaliation. Nevertheless, NGOs have launched a no-regrets campaign to have nuclear weapons taken off alert status [1]. This is backed by a UN resolution in 1998 also calling for all nuclear weapons to be taken off high-alert. The threat of malfunction in nuclear reactors is also a cause for concern. Most reactors around the world have emergency power generators (eg diesel) on standby for the cooling of the core, and to ensure safe shutdown if necessary. Helen Caldicott claims that this is not the case for the 65 nuclear reactors in the former Soviet states (but other claims contradict this). The US has set up a Nuclear Incident Emergency Response Centre in Russia to help minimise risks of either a missile or reactor accident [2]. Russia's Gazprom Natural Gas Pipeline network supplies more than one-third of Europe's natural gas and is regarded as vulnerable to y2k failure [3], as are pipeline, telecommunication and power networks generally, and particularly in the Former Soviet Union (FSU) and the developing world. A recent report commissioned by the US Navy predicts that 'total failure is likely' of New York's water and sewage systems, along with a number of other cities in the US, due to y2k problems. London is expected to experience failures in water, sewage, electricity and gas, as are many other cities around the world. [4]. Gerry Doherty says that possibly up to 20 serious safety-related incidents could occur in 2000 as a result of y2k failures, possibly on the scale of the Exxon Valdez oil spillage or the Bhopal chemical explosion in India [5]. * [1] For copy of suggested fax to Clinton and Yeltsin: http://homepages.tig.com.au/~foesyd/nuclear/bbletter.html [2] Times Supplement 'What is being done to avoid another Chernobyl?' 06 Jan 1999 [3] Abrams, Jim 'CIA Sees Y2K Problems Overseas' Associated Press 24 Feb 1999 [4] 'Master Utility List' secret report, US Navy, June 1999, cited in Lord, Jim 'The Pentagon Papers of Y2K - Cities At Risk From The Year 2000 Computer Crisis' Aug 1999 http//www.JimLord.to [5] Doherty, Gerry in 'Disaster: The Millennium Time Bomb' BBC2, Stone City Productions, 1998 * {24. disaster} * * * Y2K AND FOOD There are currently world food reserves of approximately 60 days. In theory, if food production and delivery were down 10%, reserves would take 600 days to run down completely. This is a general indication ignoring more severe shortages of food that may occur in particular locations. For example, even with these current reserves, and without y2k disruption, millions remain severely undernourished in North Korea, and famine threatens six million people in Ethiopia and Somalia once again [1]. * [1] 'Drought Leaves 5m Food Insecure in Ethiopia, 1m in Somalia', The Humanitarian Times, 27 August 1999 * {24. disaster} * * * Y2K AND OIL OPEC countries are on average behind in y2k preparedness (on par with Africa, the least prepared region). The US has roughly a 60 day oil stockpile, and there is excess production capacity amongst oil producers. It is possible that there will be a shortage of supplies causing a brief price spike (perhaps to US$30 per barrel). But if the y2k problem triggers business failure and a world recession, oil prices may well return to lows of around US$14 per barrel [1]. * [1] Mauldin, John F 'Will There Be a Y2K Oil Crisis?' Aug 1999 http://y2ktimebomb.com/Industry/Utilities/jmau9933.htm cited in Greenleap List * {24. disaster} * * * Y2K AND GLOBAL RECESSION Jacqueline Bridgers of the US State Dept. states that 'the global community is likely to experience varying degrees of y2k-related failures in every sector, in every region, and at every economic level. As such, the risk of disruption will likely extend to the international trade arena, where a breakdown in any part of the global supply chain would have a serious impact on the US and world economies.' [1] John Mauldin predicts a 'Y2k Recession' which may last from several months to a year. The y2k crisis will only be one contributing factor to global economic recession which the global economy appears to be heading towards even without y2k [2]. Robert Verzola defines four levels of the y2k crisis with problems in one level triggering new problems at the same or at another level [3]: - computing infrastructure level - production and distribution level - financial level - psychological level Vulnerability - non-y2k disruptions Examples are given of the number of business failures in the US due to a 1998 United Parcel Service shutdown, and General Motors (GM) strike in two suppliers of GM parts which put 180,000 out of work and cost GM US$1.6b. Power failure in Auckland, New Zealand (not due to the y2k problem) in 1998 lasted a staggering two months and cost billions of dollars in lost revenue, as many businesses and families temporarily relocated out of the city. Disruption was major. AT&T experienced a major system failure in its telecommunications network in 1990. Just three lines of faulty software code disrupted the estimated two million lines of code in its system [4]. In May 1998, 90% of all electronic pagers in the US crashed for a day or more because of the failure of one satellite (not due to y2k) [5]. The y2k problem in Asia, particularly China, is compounded by the fact that many corporations use pirated software (as much as 95% in China) and are therefore far less able to access technical support and upgrades. The global computer industry is very much dependent on components manufactured in East Asia. One report estimates that ~3% of microprocessors will have minor problems (eg requiring resetting the date or restarting the device) while a 'statistically insignificant' number will fail [6]. Microprocessor y2k failures have already been demonstrated in tests in fire departments, prisons, chemical plants and other critical organisations. Considering there are an estimated 50 billion microprocessors in use worldwide, even a 'statistically insignificant' number of failures could have a multiplier effect in a global economy and supply chain that is more integrated than at any time in history. On the otherhand, the fact that the meltdowns of the economies in Indonesia, Thailand and Korea did not result in a global meltdown as initially feared (though they did bring down Russia and threatened Japan, China, Brazil and Malaysia) shows that there is still a significant degree of independence between national economies. (Another view suggests that we are currently on a ledge and the major meltdown is still before us, with or without the y2k problem). Secondly, it may be possible to rectify the majority of microprocessor failures relatively quickly, within days or a week or two at most (taking into account possible shortage of components, technical support, telecommunications services). Thirdly, microprocessor failures will not all occur simultaneously. One study suggests 25% of failures will occur in the second half of 1999, 8% in the first few weeks of 2000, another 55% throughout 2000, tapering off into 2001 [7]. Although there have been numerous failures, eg causing valid warehouse stock to be accidentally discarded, nothing major has been reported amongst the ~9% of total failures that should have occurred by end of August 1999. Roberto Verzola says that much depends on the whether fund managers withdraw significantly from high risk areas of y2k failure, as they did in high risk areas in Asia in 1997. If they do, the positive feedback of herd mentality can kick in [8]. Options: 1. dampen changes in the risk perceptions, so that risk-avoidance becomes unnecessary, 2. dampen fund movements, to minimize herd behaviour, 3. improve the system's capacity to absorb the stresses of herd behaviour. Verzola feels it is too late for Option 1. Option 2 might involve greater regulation and the Tobin tax which has long been resisted by capital markets and an unlikely in the short term. Bank holidays and withdrawal ceilings are also unlikely to instill confidence. However, the third option could involve raising bank reserve requirements. But this would be at a time when a number of countries, such as the Philippines, are reducing bank reserve requirements. Since there are $20-50 circulating for every $1 of real goods and services, if fund managers attempted to move funds to tangible assets, it could have a strong inflationary effect (analogous to 20+ cars racing for the one parking space) [9]. While some experts such as Edward Yardeni have become more optimistic over the first half of 1999, others such as Michael Harden have become more pessimistic. * [1] Williams-Bridgers, Jacquelyn, Inspector General, U.S. State Dept. testified before a U.S. Senate Special Committee on the Y2K Problem, 22 July 1999 [2] Mauldin, John F 'Will There Be a Y2K Oil Crisis?' Aug 1999 http://y2ktimebomb.com/Industry/Utilities/jmau9933.htm cited in Greenleap List [3] Verzola, Robert 'Millennium Bomb (I): Responding to the Crisis of 1999-2000' Feb 1999. [4] Petersen, John L; Margaret Wheatley; Myron Kellner-Rogers 'The Year 2000: Social Chaos or Social Transformation?' http://www.co-intelligence.org/Y2K_wheatleyetal.html [5] Petersen op cit. [6] Stewart, Alistair; Giga Information Group Inc Jan 1999 [7] Marcoccio, Lou Gartner Group International Feb 1999 http://www.canoe.ca/LondonNews/lf.lf-02-05-0051.html [8] Verzola, Roberto 'Y2K: The Homestretch' personal communication Aug 1999 [9] Verzola, Roberto Aug 1999 op cit. * {24. disaster} * * * MEGATRENDS IN TECHNOLOGY According to one analysis, key technological waves have similar innovation phases of approx. 60 years and include [1]: steam engine 1764 - 1824 steamships 1787 - 1847 railroads 1801 - 1861 electricity 1830 - 1890 telegraph 1838 - 1898 telephone 1876 - 1936 automobile 1884 - 1945 aviation 1900 - 1960 radio 1901 - 1961 television 1931 - 1991 space 1945 - 2005 computers 1948 - 2008 biotechnology / bioengineering 1970 - 2030 superfast trains (eg maglev) 1990 - 2050 nanotechnology/quantum tech. 2005 - 2065 nuclear fusion 2020 - 2080 Obviously this is a simple model but does appear to reveal a pattern of cycles in technological innovation. It may also be helpful in visualising megatrends in technology, and as a starting point for further discussion. However, such an analysis can reinforce technological deterministic views and suggest that human agency and choice is virtually irrelevant. Projections (for debate) [2]: 2000 entire human genome mapped 2002 launch of international space station 2005 Internet growth rate reaches maximum 2005 maglev links cities in Japan and Germany 2010 micromechanical systems commercialised 2020 nantoechnology begins to appear in extremely small, powerful computer systems 2025 demonstration of first fusion power plant 2035 first commercial fusion power plant 2050 commercial fusion power widespread * Notes: - there is no projection regarding the diffusion of Genetically Modified Organisms (GMOs) in agricultural production. This could be due to the great uncertainty surrounding the public acceptance of GMO biogenetics. GMO proponents argue the technology will enhance food security while opponents say not. - the question of nuclear fusion is important given the controversy surrounding nuclear fission, and also given projections of possible energy shortages following the peaking of oil production around 2005-2015. - artificial intelligence (AI) is seen as a possible threat to civilisation by some critics, and similarly for nanotechnology, as technological systems acquire autonomy, or at least, loss of human control. - possible future medical technologies which offer significant life extension require study of implications on population growth, and aging populations. * [1] Timeline of Major Trends and Events (Social, Technological, Economic and Political) 1750-2100 AD, Applied Futures International, 1998. A poster of this timeline is available from IGFR. For details, e-mail [2] Timeline of Major Trends and Events op cit. * {8. megatrends in technology} * * * ERRATUM In Global Futures Bulletin #88 it was stated in 'Significance of migrant flows' that: '[1] Myers, Norman; Jennifer Kent 'Environmental Exodus' Climate Institute 1995 - suggest 200 million refugees as a result of rising seas by 2010. This date now appears somewhat premature.' This was an earlier mistake GFB had failed to correct. The Myers/Kent report of 1995 actually gives projections of 50 million environmental refugees by 2010; at least 200 million by 2050. * * * CALENDAR 13-15 Sept 1999 Star Wars International Call-In Days - international action to oppose US revitalised Star Wars plans and scheduled Ballistic Missile Defense (BMD) test (missile interception) planned for 29 Sept over the Pacific Ocean (Kwajalein) by the Pentagon. Development of the BMD system would contravene the 1972 Anti Ballistic Missile (ABM) Treaty. Deployment will open the door to the militarisation of space. http://www.globenet.free-online.co.uk 15 Sept 1999 International Day of Action Against the World Trade Organisation. (WTO III Seattle 29 Nov - 3 Dec 99). 08 Oct 1999 International Conference on Socially Responsible Investments, Rotterdam School of Management. Speakers include Amy Domini, Domini Social Investments; John Elkington, Sustainablility, UK; Penny Shepherd, UK Social Investment Forum; Simon Zadek, Institute of Social and Ethical AccountAbility; Jeroen van der Veer, Royal Dutch/Shell. Index investing, corporate governance, climate change implications for financial sector, community banking, social and ethical auditing, Global Reporting Initiative, sustainable asset management, SRI and pension investment, shareholder activism, social performance criteria. email: mmarrewijk@rsm.nl http://www.RSM.nl 5-8 Dec 1999 16th World Futures Studies Federation World Conference - Sponsored by UNESCO, Bacolod City, Philippines 'Futures of Diversity: Celebrating Life and Complexities in the Next 100Years!' Confirmed Keynote Speaker: Johan Galtung. For more info, e-mail * * ________________________________________________________ ******************************************************** The Global Futures Bulletin is produced by the Institute for Global Futures Research (IGFR) twice monthly. Readers are welcome to submit material such as succinct letters, articles and other useful information. Indicate whether you would like your name attached to the submitted material. 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-- cpr (buytexas@swbell.net), September 15, 2000.

I realize that you probably won't listen to this, but I feel I must try anyway. CPR, you are not a hero who has saved the country from the menace of the "doomers". There never was such a menace. It is completely imaginary. You are a real estate salesman with no "special powers". You are completely unimportant except to yourself and your friends, if you have any. Your delusions of grandeur and your delusions of persecution indicate that you are seriously ill and need help right away ... before you start acting out your fantasies in "real life" and hurt yourself or someone else. Please seek counseling immediately, for everyone's sake.

-- ABC (a@b.c), September 15, 2000.

My Dear ABC

Sir (or Madam) as the case may be. I am afaird that the poor sot is lost to reality now. One would feel pity for the poor fool; saving that from his past performances, he deserves not pity. But contempt.

I find it of little use in trying to help one, who by his very tyrades, have proven beyond the shadow of a doubt. That God protects fools and mad men. And poor demented Ceeper has definately run the guantlet from being a fool to that of being a mad man!

And; as I have said. I have no time for trying to help or humor the mentally defective. Even if I should be so inclined

"As for me...I shall finish the Game"!


-- Shakey (in_a_bunker@forty.feet), September 15, 2000.

Note the last line: VENDOR INDEPENDENT

May 15, 1998 D-FW Prep 2000 Meeting Date and Program

"Legal Liability and the Year 2000"

Mr. Scott Roberts, Bracewell & Patterson, L.L.P.

. ..............................................................

> - June 19, 1998 D-FW Prep 2000 Meeting Date and Program > ""

> Mr. John Raz, Project Advisor, City of Dallas Year 2000 Project

> - Location of D-FW Prep 2000 Meetings

> - D-FW Prep 2000 Web Page

> - D-FW Prep 2000 Mission Statement

> > Months to Go > > Many thanks to those who attend and especially those who have >presented programs over the past 24 months! >

> > "" > Friday, May 15, 1998

Mr. Scott Roberts will provide the May Prep 2000 meeting program addressing:

- Potential legal liabilities of the year 2000

- What actions an organization can complete to limit their own liability

- What rights an organization may have against others related to the year 2000

> >& & an article forthcoming in the Texas Banker concerning potential >lender liability for Year 2000 problems.

> Make plans now to attend the May 15, 1998, meeting of D-FW Prep 2000, with >lunch at 11:30 a.m. and the program at 12:00 Noon. >

> > "" > Friday, June 19, 1998 >

> Speaker will be Mr. John Raz, project advisor, to the City of Dallas year 2000 efforts.

D-FW Prep 2000 Meeting Location D-FW Prep 2000 meets in the private meeting room at the Wyatt's cafeteria at the southwest corner of Marsh Lane and Forest Lane in Northwest Dallas. Take LBJ Freeway (I-635) to Marsh Lane, go south 1/2 mile to Forest. Cafeteria is across Forest (southwest corner). Check in at the meeting room, obtain name tag, enter the food service line selecting whatever you would like, and return to the meeting room with food. Cost is $12 or food and program. D-FW Prep 2000 Web Page

><. Those of you who have browsed the DAMA web

>page recently have noticed considerable improvements in style and content.

>We are working to bring the year 2000 and Prep 2000 information up to par

>and expect to complete such in the next few weeks. >

> > D-FW Prep 2000 Mission >

> The mission of the Dallas -Fort Worth Prep 2000 group is: >

> - To educate local organizations and individuals about the year 2000 crisis >

> - To provide a forum for organizations and individuals to share their experiences in identifying, assessing, and resolving the impacts of the year 2000 >

- To provide information on different methods of identifying, assessing, >and resolving the year 2000 impacts, including briefings and demonstrations >of vendor supplied products and services.

> > Prep 2000 is vendor independent and is a special interest group of D-FW >Data Administration and Management Association (DAMA).

-- cpr (buytexas@swbell.net), September 15, 2000.


As I have often said, you are my hero and it was you who set me straight about y2k when I was in despair. And I too spammed the Hysterium endlessly. But even I never went as far as you. It's time to stop. Love,

-- Laura (ladylogic46@aol.com), September 15, 2000.


Even Moses couldn't lead them to a stable state of mind.

-- capnfun (capnfun1@excite.com), September 15, 2000.

hi CAPN!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Perhaps you misread the thread? I was NOT trying to lead hypocrit to stable mind....after all, who am I? :-)

However, this freak is an EXPOSED HYPOCRIT and since his doo-doo is NOW out on front street, suffice it to say, he is still....

a DOGGGGGGGGGGGGGG!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

and a HYPOCRIT!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

BTW, the food/fool service line is still available for only 12.00.

Wonder if margarita's are included.

Ohhh, bad sumer, bad sumer.....

Capn: Wanna wrestle when we get to the food line?

Go figure, food wrestling...LMAO

-- consumer (shh@aol.com), September 16, 2000.

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