One of the "Prudent" MISLEADERS: JOSEPHgreenspun.com : LUSENET : TB2K spinoff uncensored : One Thread
One of the "Prudent" MISLEADERS: JOSEPH
Christian Y2K Discussion - Tue 08/03/1999 2:29 PM
Here's the first four pages of the Joseph Project Package. It's in Word 6.0. If this doesn't work, I have a friend who can put it on his webpage for me next week and you can find it there!!!
Outline Of Potential Problems In 7 Broad Areas That Year 2000 Rollover
Might Affect And How Churches Could Prepare To Address Problems
I. Transportation and Manufacturing Delays impact: 7 Food supply interruptions 7 Oil production/possible Alaskan pipeline freeze means Spring before repairs attempted 7 Transportation delays in planes and trains (UPS, Military, Amtrak, etc.)
II. Economic & Financial: International & Domestic Banking/Employee Layoffs impact: 7 Two-Income households may be reduced to single or no-income households
7 Paycheck-to-paycheck cash flow is standard for most middle-class citizens 7 Businesses denying use of credit/ATM cards not working, or requiring exact change for purchases, due to a shortage of coins and small bills. The Federal Reserve is releasing approximately $50 billion in extra cash to compensate for what they feel will indeed be complications with keeping small bills in circulation during Year 2000 preparations. 7 Church involvement -paying staff, loan & interest-only payoffs, develop program to work with retailers for guaranteed payment of needs of people seeking help through the church
III. Power Grid: Brownouts & Blackouts/ Scheduled Shut-down points impact: 7 School closings due to lack of power, security, lunchroom facilities 7 Employees cant work-theyre babysitting; or laid off-no work if no power at plants, schools
IV. Medical complications/Special Needs Shortages problems will impact: 7 Insulin production -- 70% of supply from Denmark. If the plant isnt compliant, if ships or planes cant export from Denmark worldwide, people cant get needed supplies of insulin. 7 Baby products are not substitutable items without risking the health of the child. 7 Medical costs paid by the govt are only for 30-day periods; if you purchase prior to the 30-day period you pay full price, keeping the Just-In-Time (JIT) form of inventory at a low level at the pharmacies (where now they might not have power for security) and meaning that fixed income/low income families cant buy ahead and have more than 1 months reserves. 7 911 Emergency Systems rely on phone lines that might be down
V. Safety/Communication Limitations will impact: 7 Workers in retail areas w/o security/ shoppers in parking lots 7 News broadcasts down because of power outages 7 Home invasions/Shelter pantry break-ins
VI. Political/Government Action will impact: 7 Government Report Cards still D 7 Government preparations
VII. Time Limit left will impact: 7 Supplies in pantries 7 Amount of money that people can set back 7 Amount of time for churches to plan a course of action Detail of Realistic Year 2000 Potential Problems In 7 Broad Areas
I. TRANSPORTATION AND MANUFACTURING
Manufacturing plants need: 7 Power / Fuels i.e. coal, diesel 7 Raw materials sources 7 Raw materials transportation 7 Automatic processing equipment 7 Communications ability, internally and externally 7 Market to sell to Transportation as related to manufacturing includes: 7 Cargo planes 7 Jets 7 Rail cars 7 Truck/trailer rigs who rely on up-to-date registrations to allow them to travel inter-state
7 If the plant isnt operational they cannot keep workers on the line so layoffs result and can create a local, regional or national recession/depression (consider impact on Gadsdens tire plants routine closing and the effect that will have on their local economy to have hundreds out of work at once.) 7 If Alaska power grid is down for even a short time, internal pumps cant move the oil through the lines . Also there are heaters spaced along the pipeline that keep the oil heated to a proper flow-consistency and if they dont function, the oil will freeze in the lines, resulting in damage to pipes that cant then be repaired until (Alaskas) Spring. 7 Planes no longer are able to revert to manual operation. A planes on-board computers are the only means to fly big jets anymore and if air traffic controls malfunction even small cargo planes and passenger planes will be grounded. 7 An airline also has to be aware of whether their insurance carrier will extend flight insurance to cover the planes, the airlines company and its staff for currently scheduled flights on 1/1/00. Some insurance carriers have already issued statements saying that presently they intend to NOT INSURE airlines choosing to resume flight schedules on 1/1/00, virtually forcing the airlines to remain grounded. As an ironic note, Chinas no-nonsense answer to this dilemma is to order its airlines executives to fix all the problems AND be aboard on the first flights out on the morning of 1/1/00. 7 Trains and UPS cargo planes carry tons of cargo daily: 7 Coal 7 Automobiles 7 Food-grade paper for manufacturing items like pizza boxes, frozen food & instant food boxes 7 Non-food grade paper for newspapers, magazines and other forms of communications 7 Military equipment
7 Businesses that cant purchase these products from their suppliers because of lack of transportation cant do business. Example: What IS Dominos Pizza without a box? The stores arent built for dine-in service so they are out of operation until they can get more supplies or until they are forced to close the doors permanently due to lack of revenue. 7 Why wouldnt businesses be able to purchase products from wholesalers? Two reasons: 1) If truckers registrations are expired by the Dept. Of Motor Vehicles they are delayed or pulled off the road until the problem is solved (this actually happened during a test of a western states DMV computer system and it jammed the 18-wheeler traffic up at the state lines because they were identified at the state line as suddenly driving with expired registrations). And, also 2) Because of a total conversion to Just-In-Time inventorying systems. It lowers the cost of warehousing supplies so it is cost-effective to a wholesalers bottom line profit margin. However, it means that there is a low-limit supply of raw materials or finished product on hand at any given time, both at the store level and in the warehouses. When that supply runs out, the wholesaler must rely on the manufacturer to produce more product, assuming he has access to the raw materials. Please refer to Appendix A for a step-by-step flow chart of what is required to make a simple can of tuna. You will see all the manufacturing steps that impact getting a raw product to the consumer in completed form, and recognize that at any point along the way, a system breakdown could delay or end production. Also Appendix B for a list of products a single major manufacturer produces and the impact on consumer if those products werent available.
John has worked with Acme Paper Company for 10 years as a Senior Sales Manager. He has a good income, is married to Sherry, who homeschools their 6, 9 and 13 year olds. He has a heavy mortgage on a new home and furnishings, a new payment on a truck for personal use, a 2-year balance on his mini-van for Sherry and the kids.
Hes just been laid off because the warehouse on Finley Blvd. that usually stocks paper rolls that are sold by him and shipped to paper mills nationwide, is now empty. They wont be able to restock because the railcars used for shipment (that arent even running safely because of embedded chip problems in the master switching stations) have been commandeered by the Army for temporary military use.
John had very little money in savings because of their heavy investments in their home and also in an excellent opportunity to buy up extra stock during a special December stock offering. Now on Jan 20th, 2000 hes come to Your Church with only 1 weeks worth of cash left and no hope of an unemployment check in time to even scratch the surface of his debt.
Hes willing to do volunteer work at Your Church until he finds temporary or permanent work, but he needs a means for purchasing food and gasoline in the meantime for his job search. WORKSHEET
How is Your Church going to help supply John and his family with the things hes asking help with: 7 Job search help / networking 7 Food for the coming weeks, if needed 7 Money for gasoline 7 Help with a letter of guarantee with his mortgage lenders to insure loan payments
YOUR IDEAS and SOLUTIONS:
-- cpr (email@example.com), August 27, 2000
THIS IS A **FREEKING RIOT*** AS "PART I". NOT........ONE FACT...........ALL "INNUENDO".
Christian Y2K Discussion - II. ECONOMIC & FINANCIAL: INTERNATIONAL & DOMESTIC BANKING / EMPLOYMENT LAYOFFS Application: Disruptions will impact: 7 2-income households may become 1-income or 0-income households 7 Paycheck-to-paycheck cash flow 7 Businesses denying use of credit cards 7 ATM card malfunctions 7 Your Churchs compliance in financial area of meeting church staff payroll, and paying loans, or paying interest-only debt, and withstanding possible long-term drop in income due to recession Complications: 7 2-Income households may find that they temporarily become 1-income households or 0-income households because of layoffs at work, created by 1) shortages in sellable inventory or 2) because schools and some businesses have closed and one parent must stay home with the kids because all the day-care facilities are full. (Some experts predict that 5-7% mid-sized businesses and up to 21% of small business will be forced to close because of Year 2000 complications). 7 Most families, though they have good incomes, have it all ear-marked and still live paycheck-to-paycheck. That doesnt give them an alternative but to draw a maximum of $240/week unemployment. 7 It takes weeks to actually see an unemployment check from the State, especially if the business owner doesnt fully release the employee giving them the freedom to take another job, but rather puts them on temp leave which means he could call them back to work at any moment. In that case the employer might deny approval of unemployment (to keep his unemployment % cost to the business low and to hopefully maintain a crew he can call back if he ever reopens, not considering the limbo hes put the employee in as far as finances). 7 It also might not be prudent for the employee to leave the job outright, if he has reason to need medical insurance coverage for special needs at home, or he has investments in 401k or other pension/stock plan contributions at risk of loss. 7 You saw above how businesses could find that they cant buy products from wholesalers, now they might find they cant sell what theyve got. Most likely, banks will impose cashing restrictions, so that an employee might deposit a $2000 check, that is enough to cover their mortgage and groceries for the next few weeks, if the bank can indeed verify the account the check is drawn on, but the bank may only let them take $500 maximum out of the account, to help protect against bank runs. If the ATM machines arent functioning, or merchants that are open cant take checks because they cant verify them, then the employee must choose to get groceries for his family out of the $500 and default on the loans that he owes. Meantime the merchants can only sell to those with cash, eliminating 85% or more of their business. 7 Businesses may find that they are unable to accept credit cards until 1) the phone lines are restored and 2) the credit card companies assure their account balance information is accurate for Year 2000. At the same time if a U. S. domestic bank that has become compliant with Year 2000 does any international trade with a foreign bank that didnt manage to become fully compliant in time, that transaction could corrupt the compliant domestic banks data again. (There are over 30 international countries that we do major financial transactions with daily; most of which have not begun to address their own Year 2000 compliance -- some are just trying to stay afloat like Asia and Brazil.. ) If a business cannot procure credit or check-debit cards approval the consumer may find they cant make purchases except with cash -- sometimes needing exact change. 7 From the book Y2K The Millennium Bug A Balanced Christian Response: Up to 15% of large businesses could be at risk of failure as a result of Year 2000 rollover difficulties, with a potentially higher failure rate internationally. The Forrester Research Group in 1998, publicly estimated the following about the future of the Global 2000 -- the two thousand largest businesses in the world as a result of Y2K: 7 35 % would thrive, because they would fix their systems well in advance and use that as a serious competitive advantage. 7 50% would survive, although perhaps slightly battered by Y2K disruptions, and 7 15% would be at high risk to fail, due to failures in mission- critical systems. If correct, that will mean the failure of 300 of the biggest household-name companies in the world. (Please refer to Appendix 2 for a sample list of the impact of a large business having disrupted service.) 7 Out of 6 million small businesses, including non-profit groups and churches, small business vulnerability has been estimated at nearly 25% that their sales or production would be lost during Y2K disruptions, on average. 15% surveyed they would lose nearly all of their business (between 70-100 percent of production). Nearly 20% of all small business owners -- or roughly 1 million businesses -- reported that they had limited or no awareness of the Y2K problem. A Wells Fargo survey report says, In short, approximately 300,000 small businesses could come to a halt during Y2K downtime and a slightly larger number could be seriously crippled. Small businesses as of 1998, have completed less than 10% of their needed repairs, compared to 20-40% of large businesses, while small business accounts for 40% of GDP. 7 Your Church may find that though they can cut a loan check or an employees paycheck, no one will cash it for the employee because they cant verify the account. Situation: Your Church pays one of the secretaries, Connie, her $1500 paycheck on Friday afternoon, January 7th, 2000, and Connie goes by the bank on the way to the grocery store. She finds that she can only get $500 cash back for groceries and out of that $500 she MUST also pay by Monday morning the $200 -- in cash -- for band fees needed to send her child to National competition in May (they had unplanned, extra expenses at Christmas so the $200 wasnt in their sons Christmas stocking and HAS to come out of this check or he cant go on the trip -- and Connie is sure this Year 2000-thing will be resolved by then). John, her husband, pays bills on Saturday AM and writes a check for the familys tithe, the mortgage and the car payment. Ten days later (the mail is running slowly these days) GM Lending and Homeside Lending both call and inform Connie and John that they cant take checks, only cash payments at the local offices. The mortgage AND the car payment, is now due -- in cash -- in the next 10 days. In the meantime, the Your Churchs bank has accepted John and Connies tithe check on the weekly deposit the church made, but cannot make funds available for the church to draw on for at least 30-45 days; until all the bank accounts on the deposit can be verified and the funds transferred safely to Your Church account. Connie and John, active regular members, at Your Church, come to the pastor after church on Sunday to ask for help. WORKSHEET How is Your Church going to help Connie and John meet their basic needs of: 7 Procuring cash for essentials for the rest of the month or until John can return to work 7 Making sure that the next paycheck the church issues will be honored at Connies bank 7 Help finding temporary hourly wages for John until hes called back to work 7 A lawyer to prepare a letter of guarantee to their biggest creditors YOUR IDEAS and SOLUTIONS: How is Your Church going to utilize John and Connies skills in the meantime? 7 Will they be able to keep Connie on the payroll during the next few months? 7 Can John provide volunteer services in some area of Year 2000 church outreach? YOUR IDEAS and SOLUTIONS: The Joseph Project 2000 can help Your Church with the answers to these questions.
-- cpr (firstname.lastname@example.org), August 27, 2000.
MORE OF THE SAME "GUESSES" BUT THIS TIME FOR POWER AND NUKE PLANTS.
III. Power Grid Strain / Brownouts and Blackouts / Scheduled Shut-Down Areas
Power outages in certain areas can be life threatening: 7 Hospitals and clinics 7 Government and private shelters 7 Fire Departments 7 Police Departments 7 911 emergency systems 7 Some, but not all, of these emergency areas have backup generators or battery-backup systems. If it is a fuel-driven backup, they must store appropriate fuels safely and securely. If it is battery-back up, they must provide a means to recharge the batteries or risk shut down. 7 East of the Mississippi, 40% or our power is backed by nuclear power. 20% of power west of the Mississippi relies on nuclear power.
Complication: 7 It takes up to 4 months to shut down a nuclear power plant that is not compliant. The Nuclear Regulatory Committee (NRC) has already issued a statement that if a nuclear plant cannot guarantee compliance by June of 1999, they will be required to begin shut-down procedures. That means that available power may be limited as early as the summer of 1999, when in the South, were drawing the peak of our power to stay cool. 7 Most emergency medical sites have back-up systems. These systems, especially if they are generators, are supposed to be tested on a monthly basis. Most arent. Those that have been recently, had to report that 1 out of 5 times they tried to switch to auxiliary power, the system failed because the equipment hadnt been properly cared for during routine maintenance. 7 Many municipalities have recently purchased new or enhanced 911 Emergency Service systems, costing hundreds of thousands of taxpayer dollars. It has been determined that if the system is older than 2 years, it is NOT compliant with Year 2000 rollover. The companies that install 911 systems have stated that they will not be able to make a system compliant cost-effectively and that the municipalities will have to purchase all new equipment in order to be ready for Year 2000 rollover. Most municipal budgets do not have the funds available to make such a purchase again, some having just spent money for their systems in the past 3-5 years and have not even completed the initial depreciation of the cost over a 7-year period. 7 Power could go out at rural power stations, because they 1) cant afford to make the necessary changes in time or 2) they attempt changes, test the system and in doing so, discover more changes that must be made to be compliant but they no longer have the time to implement the changes. If that happens, they will have to pull power from the city power companies, placing long-term drains on the citys supply of power. If a power station of any size shuts completely down, it takes a tremendous amount of power to get the station up and running again. In order to do that, in most cases, contingency plans have been set up for schedule area blackouts. Residential and some business districts might loose power during certain times of the day or night to conserve power. Hospitals, etc. would be given power continuously. 7 If retail businesses or restaurants are blacked out, they lose revenue and they must shorten or eliminate shifts or shut down entirely, because they cant meet payroll without revenue. 7 If schools are without power, they cant provide security surveillance, might not be able to sustain back-up power for safety equipment like fire sprinklers (no power, no pressure) or lunchroom kitchen equipment. 7 If power is off at your residence, unless you are on a septic tank, your water sources may lose pressure and the toilets could malfunction. But more importantly, if the sewage pumps at the plant cant pull and manually treat the sewage coming in, they might have to shut the lines down, causing the sewage to back up into the lines and overflow in the lowest points first. It has to be understood that no matter how prepared you are in your residence with food supplies, a sewage backup is the one real threat to driving you from your home to a shelter or to other familys homes.
Deborah is 23 years old and comes to Your Church for help. She is not a member of the church but lives in the area. She is in college, in Dental school, has 2 young children and her boyfriend has left her.
The children stay with her alcoholic mother during the day and some evenings while Deborah works as a waitress. Deborah cant afford day care costs and has to let the children stay in the 2 room apartment with her mom, even when her mom has male guests visit to party.
Her student loans and her grant have been delayed due to Year 2000 rollover complications with the universitys computer. Her rent is 2 months past due now and today her van broke down.
She took a bus to reach Your Church. She needs transportation to get to work, though her work shift has been cut in half due to power outages at the restaurant. She will also volunteer help anywhere she is needed. WORKSHEET
What can Your Church do to help Deborah out with: 7 finding temporary carpool transportation or loaning her a vehicle 7 finding appropriate daycare and evening care for the kids 7 get her van repaired at cost by a church member who has volunteered his services 7 help her with a job search or a second job for additional income to help her stay in school 7 help her find an affordable room to rent for her and 2 children within the home of a Christian family 7 Ministering to Deborah and her family to help them develop a spiritual wellness
YOUR IDEAS and SOLUTIONS:
How can Your Church incorporate Deborahs willingness to volunteer her help in areas of:
7 Dental office of a church member who has offered to provide dental care to needy families during the Year 2000 crisis 7 Babysitting or helping home school 7 Volunteering to work on cleaning crews to clean businesses and restaurants of Your Church members that are trying to stay open with skeleton crews 7 Cook in shelters 7 Entertain the elderly in shelters
YOUR IDEAS and SOLUTIONS:
The Joseph Project 2000 can help Your Church with the answers to these questions.
-- cpr (email@example.com), August 27, 2000.
Link For the Nitwits
-- cccpr (firstname.lastname@example.org), August 27, 2000.
and when do you start back to school again, Little Ruskies?
-- cpr (email@example.com), August 27, 2000.
Just how old is this cut 'n paste, CPR? After all, you yourself in the summer of 1998 thought Y2K was going to be an "8" on a 1-10 scale. If you could show Joseph knew at that time that what he was saying was not possible, you'd have something. And you might have something if Joseph had been selling Y2K supplies.
Most likely, though, Joseph was just going by the best information he could find at that time about what was possible. Everyone makes mistakes CPR--even you. I see no reason to think this man knowingly and willfully tried to deceive others.
-- When? (firstname.lastname@example.org), August 28, 2000.
CAN'T READ? WHITE SHEETED "ANON"??
08/03/1999 2:29 PM
-- cpr (email@example.com), August 28, 2000.
VS:............CPR: Ranking of problem: June 1998- 8.0. August 1998- 7.2. October 1998- 7.0. December 1998- 7.0. January 1999- 6.7. February 1999- 6.7. March 1999- 5.5. April 1999- 3.5 to 4.5. May 1999- 2.0 to 3.5. June 1999- 1.5 to 2.5. July 1999- 1.0 to 2.0. August 1999- 1.0 to 1.5. September 1999- 0.9999. October 1999- 0.75. November 1999- 0.5. December 1999- 0.5.
DIMWIT. MY 1998 RATINGS INCLUDED 3.0 DIRECTLY ATTIBUTED TO THE **BULL SHIT FROM DOOMERS**.
-- cpr (firstname.lastname@example.org), August 28, 2000.
Hey ceep you fcking moron, let us know when you get done talking to yourself. Sheesh.
-- (cpr email@example.com), August 28, 2000.
Hey ceep you fcking moron, let us know when you get done talking to yourself. Sheesh. -- (cpr firstname.lastname@example.org), August 28, 2000.
HEY, GOOBER, BRILLIANT AND MOST THOROUGH ANAL-YSIS for people like you.
GOLLY , why don't we file this right under "Sticks, Stones, Names ...."?
-- cpr (email@example.com), August 28, 2000.
Nah, up your tush is better, but thanks for the advice.
-- (firstname.lastname@example.org), August 28, 2000.