Rogue Moon will hit the earth!!

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http://www.yowusa.com/Archive/VOL3Q00/24JUL00a/24jul00a.html

Foreword

The original Phobos Impact Scenario by James van der Worp was published on July 13, 2000. Following the publication of that article, the YOWUSA_SPACE Special Interest Group (SIG) began open science-minded debate of the scenario.

A particularly interesting thread developed between James van der Worp and Glen Deen, MSEE. The bulk of the discussion is presented in this update in chronological order. The posts have been formatted for easy reading, and a few specific comments intended solely for the SIG have been deleted.

We invite you to become a member of YOWUSA_SPACE, to view these posts in their complete original versions and to lend your thoughts and opinions to this ongoing discussion.

Your Own World USA Marshall Masters, Publisher

Glen Deen Wed Jul 19, 2000 11:42am Subject: Phobos ejection scenario?

Hi,

I'm a new subscriber to this list, and right away I have a correction.

Quoting from http://www.yowusa.com/authors/jvdworp/0300/phobos/phobos1.html

"Scientists tell us that Phobos has always been a bit of an odd moon, because it is the only moon in the solar system with a cw orbit, which has been assumed here also."

Phobos has a direct (CCW) orbit (as does Deimos) with a period of 0.31891 days, a semi-major axis of 9,378 km, and an eccentricity of 0.015 (essentially circular). Refer to page F3 of "The Astronomical Almanac for the Year 2000", U.S.Government Printing Office. Any year of the Almanac will do. The orbit does not change (unless perturbed!).

I am intrigued by your hypothesis that Comet 76P/West-Kohoutek-Ikemura during its close pass on June 5, 2000 may have perturbed Phobos enough to allow it to escape Mars's gravity and generate an Earth-crossing orbit. The fact that Phobos has a direct orbit instead of a retrograde orbit does not prevent the scenario. It just means that the comet needs to pass between Mars and Phobos when Phobos is at or near a new moon phase instead of passing between them when Phobos would have been at or near a full moon phase in the retrograde orbit case.

Phobos must gain enough velocity relative to Mars to escape its gravity, and it must at the same time lose enough velocity relative to the Sun to give it an Earth-crossing orbit. It can only do this in or near its new moon phase when it's orbital velocity vector opposes Mars's velocity vector.

Since Mars is too close to the Sun right now to observe it, we will have to wait a few weeks to see if Phobos is missing and if Comet 76P/West-Kohoutek-Ikemura has a much different orbit now than it did before the encounter.

The referenced calculations by Muraoka and Rocher indicate the closest distance to Mars by Comet 76P/West-Kohoutek-Ikemura is on the order of 6.5 million km. I added my own calculations.

Kenji Muraoka (Japan): Minimum distance of 0.04215 AU on June 5 Patrick Rocher (France): Minimum distance of 0.04251 AU on June 5 Glen Deen (U.S.A.): Minimum distance of 0.043316 AU on June 6

Mine are a little off because I am using approximate formulas for now. Later I intend to use more rigorous formulas and data from the Multiyear Interactive Computer Almanac.

For the calculation I used the Heliocentric Osculating Orbital Elements of Mars referred to the mean cliptic and equinox of date from page E4 of the cited Astronomical Almanac. This introduces a slight error because the comet elements are with respect to the J2000 ecliptic plane.

That miss distance is so large that 1-day increments are sufficient. On June 5, I got 0.043424 AU, and on June 7, I got 0.044781 AU.

That is about 16.5 times the average distance from the Earth to the Moon. But worse than that, the comet is 0.0324 AU outside and 0.01057 AU above the orbit of Mars on that date. That is way too high and too far out. It needs to cross the orbital plane of Mars, and it needs to be inside the orbit of Mars and also inside the orbit of Phobos. In other words, it needs to pass between Mars and Phobos at or near its new moon phase.

Here are the orbital elements I found for the comet at http://ssd.jpl.nasa.gov/sb_elem.html

Tp = 2000, 06, 01.255 (time of perihelion passage, Y, M, D) q = 1.59585610 AU (perihelion distance) e =0.53985637 (eccentricity of orbit) i = 30.49911 degrees (inclination of orbit to J2000 ecliptic plane) w =0.07329 degrees (argument of the perihelion relative to the ascending node) Node = 84.1249 degrees(longitude of the ascending node relative to the equinox)

The calculated semi-major axis is 3.4682 AU, the period is 6.4588 years, and the comet's aphelion is 5.3405 AU, which is between Jupiter's mean distance and its own aphelion. This means that this comet could have been emitted or ejected by Jupiter.

If we tweak the elements just a little bit,

Change q from 1.5958561 to 1.56029825 Change w from 0.07329 to 1.122305

and leave the other 4 elements as they are, we can make the comet pass through the solar radius vector to Mars and inside its orbit by 6387.5 km. This encounter would have occurred on June 2.927083333 or 22:15 UT on June 2, 2000.

I chose that time because Phobos was at its new moon phase at that moment. This is not a big deal, as Phobos has (had?) a synodic period (new moon to new moon) of 7.6666666 hours. I list below 7 sequential new moon dates in the year 2000 derived from the table on page F5 of the Astronomical Almanac:

June 2.2881944 June 2.6076389 June 2.9270833 June 3.2465278 June 3.5659722 June 3.8854167 June 4.2048611

It just happened that I found a convergence at June 3 at 0:00 UT of the Mars encounter criteria by adjusting q and w and looking at 1-day steps, so I picked the new moon nearest June 3. I believe that I can find other solutions at other new moons, so this allows some flexibility in the model if we seek to find an Earth crossing orbit for Phobos that will impact on the Earth.

I chose that comet orbit radius because the orbital radius of Phobos is 9378 km and the radius of the planet is 3397 km. Thus, the comet would fly 2990.5 km above the surface of Mars and 2990.5 km below the orbit radius of Phobos. Since Phobos was at its new moon phase at that time, then the comet would have passed exactly halfway between Phobos and the surface of Mars.

The comet encounter phase of Phobos is a free parameter. It is unlikely to be exactly new. Its phase might be as much as 30 degrees before or after new moon for all I know.

Of course the actual orbit of the comet is another set of unknown parameters.

A very important unknown parameter is the mass of the comet. The standard model says that comets are dirty snowballs of low density. I believe that comets are exceedingly dense objects, and they have a very, very large masses. So large that this one could easily eject Phobos if it passes between it and Mars at the right time. It might even perturb the orbit of Mars itself.

If this scenario occurs, we will learn the mass of the comet, among many other things.

I am working on possible orbits and dates for a collision with Earth, and I'll post the results in a subsequent message.

Peace,

Glen

Jacco van der Worp Date: Wed Jul 19, 2000 12:39pm Subject: Re: Phobos ejection scenario?

> Phobos has a direct (CCW) orbit (as does Deimos) with a period of > 0.31891 days, a semi-major axis of 9,378 km, and an eccentricity of > 0.015 (essentially circular). Refer to page F3 of "The Astronomical > Almanac for the Year 2000", U.S. Government Printing Office. Any year > of the Almanac will do. The orbit does not change (unless perturbed!).

I had been told it was CW, but that really is only a minor detail, a CW orbit may only be a little easier to perturb. A comet passing is equally capable of perturbing both types of orbit. It remains however, that Phobos' orbit has been known to be unstable. It may even break away from orbit almost spontaneously, but that would result in a crash onto the planet.

> I am intrigued by your hypothesis that Comet 76P/West-Kohoutek-Ikemura > during its close pass on June 5, 2000 may have perturbed Phobos enough > to allow it to escape Mars's gravity and generate an Earth-crossing > orbit. The fact that Phobos has a direct orbit instead of a > retrograde orbit does not prevent the scenario. It just means that > the comet needs to pass between Mars and Phobos when Phobos is at or > near a new moon phase instead of passing between them when Phobos > would have been at or near a full moon phase in the retrograde orbit case.

No. CCW just means that they will fly along a bit on the outside (the comet passed OUTSIDE Mars' orbit) instead of meeting head-on. Perhaps now even the chance of a destabilization by the passing by (NOT hitting) is larger than when meeting head-on.

> Phobos must gain enough velocity relative to Mars to escape its > gravity, and it must at the same time lose enough velocity relative to > the Sun to give it an Earth-crossing orbit. It can only do this in or > near its new moon phase when it's orbital velocity vector opposes > Mars's velocity vector.

Again, I don't agree completely. It can just get the extra 'push' it needs to break away by the 'dragging along' by the comet. However, there's no telling how soon the Mars' atmosphere reacted. We've seen

the footage. I do agree that the most likely point of break away is the new moon phase.

In that point it has the least velocity as opposed to the Sun and indeed the steep descent I pictured in my article becomes rather more likely than less likely by Phobos' orbit running the other way.

> Since Mars is too close to the Sun right now to observe it, we will > have to wait a few weeks to see if Phobos is missing and if Comet > 76P/West-Kohoutek-Ikemura has a much different orbit now than it did > before the encounter.

Good luck with that. It has not been spotted any more since passing by Mars. It should have. It was WELL before Mars chose the vicinity of the Sun. It was about 10-15 degrees away from the Sun by that time.

> The referenced calculations by Muraoka and Rocher indicate the closest > distance to Mars by Comet 76P/West-Kohoutek-Ikemura is on the order of > 6.5 million km. I added my own calculations. > > Kenji Muraoka (Japan): Minimum distance of 0.04215 AU on June 5 > Patrick Rocher (France): Minimum distance of 0.04251 AU on June 5 > Glen Deen (U.S.A.): Minimum distance of 0.043316 AU on June 6 > > Mine are a little off because I am using approximate formulas for now. > Later I intend to use more rigorous formulas and data from the > Multiyear Interactive Computer Almanac. > > For the calculation I used the Heliocentric Osculating Orbital > Elements of Mars referred to the mean ecliptic and equinox of date > from page E4 of the cited Astronomical Almanac. This introduces a > slight error because the comet elements are with respect to the J2000 > ecliptic plane.

I have only one objection to this. That is, that all data either comes from NASA or has been 'approved' by them. And that data I mistrust beforehand. They say it is so, so it is indisputably so. Who the hell is to counter them anyway, as they have the sole access to ANY observations.

I don't have better ephemeris, but the evasive actions by NASA have put me on alert and when subsequently Mars turns into a blob of bubblegum immediately after the passage I do no longer believe that 'nothing happened or will happen' and 'this is a totally unimportant and not very interesting event'.

Something DID take place there, so why won't they just admit to it. We have seen SOHO pictures of the result, so what do they take us for? Idiots? No, thank you.

> That miss distance is so large that 1-day increments are sufficient. > On June 5, I got 0.043424 AU, and on June 7, I got 0.044781 AU. > That is about 16.5 times the average distance from the Earth to the > Moon. But worse than that, the comet is 0.0324 AU outside and > 0.01057 AU above the orbit of Mars on that date. That is way too high > and too far out. It needs to cross the orbital plane of Mars, and it > needs to be inside the orbit of Mars and also inside the orbit of > Phobos. In other words, it needs to pass between Mars and Phobos at > or near its new moon phase.

When worst comes to worst, it needn't have been the comet which set something off up there. But something did. They have the satellites to watch and two of them have crashed (yeah right) and one of them is out of control (and miraculously recovered weeks after). How many more lies do we have to put up with before it is TOO late.

> Here are the orbital elements I found for the comet at > http://ssd.jpl.nasa.gov/sb_elem.html > > Tp = 2000, 06, 01.255 (time of perihelion passage, Y, M, D) > q = 1.59585610 AU (perihelion distance) > e = 0.53985637 (eccentricity of orbit) > i = 30.49911 degrees (inclination of orbit to J2000 ecliptic plane) > w = 0.07329 degrees (argument of the perihelion relative to the ascending node) > Node = 84.1249 degrees (longitude of the ascending node relative to the equinox) > > The calculated semi-major axis is 3.4682 AU, the period is 6.4588 > years, and the comet's aphelion is 5.3405 AU, which is between > Jupiter's mean distance and its own aphelion. This means that this > comet could have been emitted or ejected by Jupiter. > > If we tweak the elements just a little bit, > > Change q from 1.5958561 to 1.56029825 > Change w from 0.07329 to 1.122305

> and leave the other 4 elements as they are, we can make the comet pass > through the solar radius vector to Mars and inside its orbit by 6387.5 > km. This encounter would have occurred on June 2.927083333 or 22:15 > UT on June 2, 2000. > > I chose that time because Phobos was at its new moon phase at that > moment. This is not a big deal, as Phobos has (had?) a synodic period > (new moon to new moon) of 7.6666666 hours. I list below 7 sequential > new moon dates in the year 2000 derived from the table on page F5 of > the Astronomical Almanac:

Please, you have put way too much emphasis onto the comet. I really don't think that collision has taken place. But SOMETHING did. I want to know what happened there and what it has led to.

> June 2.2881944 > June 2.6076389 > June 2.9270833 > June 3.2465278 > June 3.5659722 > June 3.8854167 > June 4.2048611 > > It just happened that I found a convergence at June 3 at 0:00 UT of > the Mars encounter criteria by adjusting q and w and looking at 1-day > steps, so I picked the new moon nearest June 3. I believe that I can > find other solutions at other new moons, so this allows some > flexibility in the model if we seek to find an Earth crossing orbit > for Phobos that will impact on the Earth. > > I chose that comet orbit radius because the orbital radius of Phobos > is 9378 km and the radius of the planet is 3397 km. Thus, the comet > would fly 2990.5 km above the surface of Mars and 2990.5 km below the > orbit radius of Phobos. Since Phobos was at its new moon phase at > that time, then the comet would have passed exactly halfway between > Phobos and the surface of Mars. > > The comet encounter phase of Phobos is a free parameter. It is > unlikely to be exactly new. Its phase might be as much as 30 degrees > before or after new moon for all I know. > > Of course the actual orbit of the comet is another set of unknown parameters. > > A very important unknown parameter is the mass of the comet. The > standard model says that comets are dirty snowballs of low density. I > believe that comets are exceedingly dense objects, and they have a > very, very large masses. So large that this one could easily eject > Phobos if it passes between it and Mars at the right time. It might > even perturb the orbit of Mars itself. > > If this scenario occurs, we will learn the mass of the comet, among > many other things.

A final remark, I really doubt if the comet managed to creep between Mars and Phobos. 9000 kms is pretty tight. It would have crashed onto Mars, don't you agree? Well, the only way to find out is get over

there ourselves, don't expect any help from NASA or the likes.

> I am working on possible orbits and dates for a collision with Earth, > and I'll post the results in a subsequent message. > > Peace, > Glen

Keep up this work,

cheers,

Jacco

Co-moderator of Yowusa_space

Glen Deen Date: Thu Jul 20, 2000 3:08pm Subject: Re: Re: Phobos ejection scenario?

Dear Jacco,

> > snip < < > > Phobos has a direct (CCW) orbit (as does Deimos) with a period of > > 0.31891 days, a semi-major axis of 9,378 km, and an eccentricity > > of 0.015 (essentially circular). Refer to page F3 of "The > > Astronomical Almanac for the Year 2000", U.S. Government > > Printing Office. > > I had been told it was CW, but that really is only a minor detail, a > CW orbit may only be a little easier to perturb. A comet passing is > equally capable of perturbing both types of orbit.

> It remains however, that Phobos' orbit has been known to be > unstable. It may even break away from orbit almost spontaneously, > but that would result in a crash onto the planet.

I have heard that it is unstable over a very long time frame, but numerical integration is unreliable over very long time frames. I would not count on any spontaneous breakaway. The orbit velocity is

2.137 km/s, and the escape velocity is 3.022 km/s. That means you need a delta V for ejection of about 0.885 km/s. Since the mass of Phobos is1.06E+16 kg, the energy required to eject Phobos is 2.42E+22 Joules.

> > I am intrigued by your hypothesis that Comet 76P/West-Kohoutek- > > Ikemura during its close pass on June 5, 2000 may have perturbed > > Phobos enough to allow it to escape Mars's gravity and generate > > an Earth-crossing orbit. The fact that Phobos has a direct orbit > > instead of a retrograde orbit does not prevent the scenario. It just > > means that the comet needs to pass between Mars and Phobos > > when Phobos is at or near a new moon phase instead of passing > > between them when Phobos would have been at or near a full > > moon phase in the retrograde orbit case. > > > No. CCW just means that they will fly along a bit on the outside > (the comet passed OUTSIDE Mars' orbit)

Says them. I don't necessarily believe it. If there is a cover up, they would like us to believe it passes outside Mars's orbit.

> instead of meeting head-on. Perhaps > now even the chance of a destabilization by the passing by (NOT > hitting) is larger than when meeting head-on.

I don't follow you. In my scenario the comet approaches Phobos head on because the moon is near its new phase on the inside of Mars.

Actual collision of the comet with Phobos is extremely unlikely although not impossible. I believe the comet may have acted like a gravity whip on Phobos as it passes by.

> > Phobos must gain enough velocity relative to Mars to escape its > > gravity, and it must at the same time lose enough velocity > > relative to the Sun to give it an Earth-crossing orbit. It can only > > do this in or near its new moon phase when it's orbital velocity > > vector opposes Mars's velocity vector. > > Again, I don't agree completely. It can just get the extra 'push' it > needs to break away by the 'dragging along' by the comet.

Dragging along? What physics are you using? I'm using Newtonian and Keplerian physics. The encounter would alter the trajectories of both Phobos and the comet, but they will pass each other nearly head-on, going in opposite directions, and they will continue moving apart after the encounter. There would be no stopping or dragging.

> However, there's no telling how soon the Mars' atmosphere reacted. > We've seen the footage.

I must have missed this part. What footage? (I guess from what follows, you mean SOHO footage. Could you give me a link to it?)

> I do agree that the most likely point of break away is > the new moon phase. > In that point it has the least velocity as opposed to the Sun and > indeed the steep descent I pictured in my article becomes rather > more likely than less likely by Phobos' orbit running the other way.

Phobos can't cross Earth's orbit unless it slows down relative to the Sun because it must reach Earth's orbit near perihelion. That means it must lose some of Mars's orbit velocity. In that case, the ejection point will be near to its new aphelion. If Phobos sped up, then the encounter would be near its new perihelion, and its aphelion would be in the asteroid belt somewhere.

> > Since Mars is too close to the Sun right now to observe it, we > > will have to wait a few weeks to see if Phobos is missing and if > > Comet 76P/West-Kohoutek-Ikemura has a much different orbit > > now than it did before the encounter. > > > > Good luck with that. It has not been spotted any more since passing > by Mars. It should have. It was WELL before Mars chose the vicinity > of the Sun. It was about 10-15 degrees away from the Sun by that > time.

That puts Mars in twilight and it is unobservable from Earth. Of course, the Hubble ought to have been able to see it. I doubt that anybody even looked. Hubble time is scheduled well in advance, and those folks don't believe internet rumors. SOHO could have seen Mars and the comet, but not Phobos.

I have access to a 24-inch f/16 telescope that is pointed by a computer, and I hope to start looking myself in a few weeks when Mars is back in dark skies. When the comet becomes observable, lots of people will try to recover it and compute its orbit. That may be the first inkling. Even amateur astronomers can observe comets and compute orbits. If the orbit changed, we will know it from the public outcries. I'll be looking for Phobos.

> > The referenced calculations by Muraoka and Rocher indicate the > > closest distance to Mars by Comet 76P/West-Kohoutek-Ikemura > > is on the order of 6.5 million km. I added my own calculations. > > > > Kenji Muraoka (Japan): Minimum distance of 0.04215 AU on June 5 > > Patrick Rocher (France): Minimum distance of 0.04251 AU on June 5 > > Glen Deen (U.S.A.): Minimum distance of 0.043316 AU on June 6 > > > > Mine are a little off because I am using approximate formulas for now. > > Later I intend to use more rigorous formulas and data from the > > Multiyear Interactive Computer Almanac. > > > > For the calculation I used the Heliocentric Osculating Orbital > > Elements of Mars referred to the mean ecliptic and equinox of date > > from page E4 of the cited Astronomical Almanac. This introduces a > > slight error because the comet elements are with respect to the J2000 > > ecliptic plane. > > > > I have only one objection to this. That is, that all data either > comes from NASA or has been 'approved' by them. And that data I > mistrust beforehand. They say it is so, so it is indisputably so. > Who the hell is to counter them anyway, as they have the sole access > to ANY observations.

The Astronomical Almanac is published by the U.S. Naval Observatory a year in advance, and the data for the book is computed long before that. I don't think the USNO consults with NASA. The MICA CD-ROM

software has been out for at least 5 years because it is a DOS program. I bought my copy several years ago. That data is reliable.

Let's be clear about what we are talking about. I am talking about the orbits of Earth and Mars. I think you are talking about the comet's orbital elements.

I suspect that two of the six true elements of the comet were altered by a single digit in each case.

What I did was use their elements but alter them to pass close to Mars.

> I don't have better ephemeris, but the evasive actions by NASA have > put me on alert and when subsequently Mars turns into a blob of > bubblegum immediately after the passage I do no longer believe > that 'nothing happened or will happen' and 'this is a totally > unimportant and not very interesting event'. > Something DID take place there, so why won't they just admit to it. > We have seen SOHO pictures of the result, so what do they take us > for? Idiots? No, thank you.

Ahhh. What SOHO pictures? I didn't see them. But SOHO does not have enough image scale or resolution to observe Phobos.

> > That is about 16.5 times the average distance from the Earth to > > the Moon. But worse than that, the comet is 0.0324 AU outside > > and 0.01057 AU above the orbit of Mars on that date. That is way > > too high and too far out. It needs to cross the orbital plane of Mars, > > and it needs to be inside the orbit of Mars and also inside the > > orbit of Phobos. In other words, it needs to pass between Mars > > and Phobos at or near its new moon phase. > > > > When worst comes to worst, it needn't have been the comet which set > something off up there. But something did.

What else but the comet do you have in mind?

> They have the satellites > to watch and two of them have crashed (yeah right) and one of them > is out of control (and miraculously recovered weeks after). How > many more lies do we have to put up with before it is TOO late. > > > Here are the orbital elements I found for the comet at > > http://ssd.jpl.nasa.gov/sb_elem.html > > > > Tp = 2000, 06, 01.255 (time of perihelion passage, Y, M, D) > > q = 1.59585610 AU (perihelion distance) > > e = 0.53985637 (eccentricity of orbit) > > i = 30.49911 degrees (inclination of orbit to J2000 ecliptic) > > w = 0.07329 degrees (argument of the perihelion) > > Node = 84.1249 degrees (longitude of the ascending node) > > > > The calculated semi-major axis is 3.4682 AU, the period is 6.4588 > > years, and the comet's aphelion is 5.3405 AU, which is between > > Jupiter's mean distance and its own aphelion. This means that > > this comet could have been emitted or ejected by Jupiter. > > > > If we tweak the elements just a little bit, > > > > Change q from 1.5958561 to 1.56029825 > > Change w from 0.07329 to 1.122305 > > > > and leave t

-- We (Need@debunkers.com), August 03, 2000

Answers

>> Rogue Moon will hit the earth!! <<

"When in danger or in doubt,

Run in circles, scream and shout!"

BTW, Rogue Moon would make a good name for a bad rock group.

-- Brian McLaughlin (brianm@ims.com), August 03, 2000.


too much information...bottom line this for me, are we all gonna die soon or not?

-- Uncle Bob (unclb0b@aol.com), August 03, 2000.

it doesn,t matter when you die[all get to go]IT,S how!!as in =saved or un-saved!---get saved & chill!!!!!

-- al-d. (dogs@zianet.com), August 04, 2000.

Oh, my GAAAWWWWD it's happening again,

So I'm hunting up buckets and batteries and pins,

I've got beans and rice and almonds in tins,

Should I stock up on booze and Spam and Depends?

Just kidding you know, I fell for this once,

If I fall for it now, I'm a first-rate dunce.

HeeHee

-- gilda (jess@listbot.com), August 04, 2000.


Comments by Gordon-Michael Scallion

MARS, PHOBOS and COMET 76P: 7/31/2000

We have received hundreds of letters regarding the discovery of comet 76P. Amateur and a few professional comet trackers have predicted the comets trajectory will pass very close to Mars. Some believe that if the comet remains on its current path, Mar's small satellites, Phobos in particular may be pulled from its orbit due to gravitational and magnetic forces exerted by the comet's path. In my book, Notes form the Cosmos I included a chapter of Mars and Phobos. In it I stated that in a vision I witnessed Phobos being pulled from its obit by "something".

Many readers interpreted this to mean a comet. I was not so sure. No specific time frame was indicated in this vision but since I was receiving insights for the window from 1998 through 2012 I can only assume it would occur in this time frame. I have asked my Source for clarification on this event as well as a time frame and received this.

"As magnetic forces shift in this Sun system, Mars shall react before Earth even. This in turn acts as the catalyst for propulsion of Phobos to leave orbit. During the window of 2000 and 2001, triggers for a reversal of polarity in Mars reaches maxim."

I interpret this to additional insight to mean that it will not be a comet that will force Phobos from orbit. A magnetic pole shifts on Mars will. From now through December 2001 is the likely window for this to occur. Perhaps it is due to the current solar cycle, which is peaking during this time period. It is also interesting to note the comment that Mars has a pole shift "before Earth even". Perhaps this could be an early warning sign for future changes on Earth. Maybe this is why the ancients were so fearful ofMars, the Red Planet.

Gordon-Michael Scallion, July 31, 2000

-- joe (joe@camel.net), August 04, 2000.



I ditto Uncle Bob.

Were all gonna die.

sorry FS, beat ya to it. :-)

-- consumer (shh@aol.com), August 04, 2000.


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