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Census Bureau: Projects Immigration Will Double Nation's Population This Century

Census Press Release The previous projection was that U.S. population would hit 393 million by 2050, based on then-current conditions. Looking at fertility and immigration conditions of today, the Bureau now projects that they will lead to 404 million by 2050!

For the first time ever, the Bureau is projecting for an entire century and finds that unless Congress reduces immigration numbers, the current level of arrivals of foreign workers and their families will cause the population to more than double this century -- from 273 million of last year to 571 million in 2100.

******************************** U.S. Department of Commerce -- Bureau of the Census

The nation's resident population could more than double in this century, according to national population projections to the year 2100 released today by the Commerce Department's Census Bureau. According to the projections, the nation's resident population 273 million on July 1, 1999 is projected to reach 404 million in 2050 and 571 million in 2100. These results are based on middle-level assumptions regarding population growth during the century.

"Even though childbearing levels in the United States remain quite close to the level needed only to replace the population, the increasing number of potential parents and continued migration from abroad would be sufficient to add nearly 300 million people during the next century," said Census Bureau analyst Frederick W. Hollmann. "Because the Hispanic and Asian and Pacific Islander populations in the U.S. are younger than the nation as a whole and because they continue to receive international migrants, these populations will become increasingly prominent."

The data also show lowest and highest alternative projections. The lowest series projects population growth to 314 million in 2050 and then a decline to 283 million in 2100. The highest projects 553 million people in 2050 and 1.2 billion in 2100.

The projections do not take into account possible future changes in the way people report their race and ethnicity and, because of the length of time covered and other uncertainties, they are considered less reliable for the latter part of the century.

According to the middle series projections, the Hispanic population (of any race) would triple from 31.4 million in 1999 to 98.2 million in 2050. By 2005, Hispanics may become the nation's largest minority group. The percentage of Hispanics in the total population could rise from 12 percent in 1999 to 24 percent in 2050.

The Asian and Pacific Islander population, meanwhile, would more than triple, from 10.9 million in 1999 to 37.6 million in 2050. Its percentage of the total population would rise from 4 percent now to 9 percent in 2050.

According to the projections, the non-Hispanic White and African American populations would increase more slowly than the other groups. The non-Hispanic White population would rise from 196.1 million in 1999 to 213.0 million in 2050 a 9 percent increase. Its share of the total population would decline, however, from 72 percent in 1999 to 53 percent in 2050.

The African American population, according to the projections, would rise from 34.9 million in 1999 to 59.2 million in 2050 a 70 percent increase; under this scenario, the African American share of the total population would increase slightly, from 13 percent to 15 percent.

Between 1999 and 2050, the total number of foreign-born would more than double, increasing from 26.0 million to 53.8 million. The proportion of the nation's population that is foreign-born may rise from 10 percent in 1999 to 13 percent in 2050.

The population age 65 and over would grow from 34.6 million in 1999 to 82.0 million in 2050 a 137 percent increase. The projections also show an especially rapid surge in the elderly population as the surviving "baby boomers" pass age 65; in the year 2011, baby boomers (those born between 1946 and 1964) will begin turning 65. Between 2011 and 2030, the number of elderly would rise from 40.4 million (13 percent of the population) to 70.3 million (20 percent of the population).

The projections show that the number of children under 18 would increase from 70.2 million in 1999 to 95.7 million in 2050. However, their share of the nation's population would decline slowly, falling from 26 percent in 1999 to 24 percent in 2050.

The projections are based on assumptions about future childbearing, mortality and migration. The level of childbearing among women for the middle series is assumed to remain close to present levels, with differences by race and Hispanic origin diminishing over time. Mortality is assumed to decline gradually with less variation by race and Hispanic origin than at present. International migration is assumed to vary over time and decrease generally relative to the size of the population. Assumptions for the lowest and highest series are summarized in a working paper, titled "Methodology and Assumptions for the Population Projections of the United States: 1999 to 2100", HTML Version or PDF Version also released today.

This is the first time that the Census Bureau has projected the population to 2100 and the first time it includes information on the foreign-born population. The projections are presented by age, sex, race and Hispanic origin.

-- K (, July 22, 2000


In China the rivers are running dry, not only from draught, but from the great drain of people-consumption. Maybe the Chinese have the right idea after all--population control--as much as I hate to say that.

-- Uncle Fred (, July 22, 2000.

The world is on track to run short of water. It's only a matter of time. The Chinese are the first hit because their 1.3 billion people make up the world's biggest population. They are leading edge prophets.

-- Loner (, July 22, 2000.

Gee, maybe I'll need those three fifty-five gallon drums of water yet, that I have set aside for y2k, if women throughout the world don't slow down giving birth.

-- LillyLP (, July 22, 2000.

Sorry about the typo; s/b infrastructure

BTW, it is not simply a matter of women giving birth. It is the movement of the population as well. People in the U. S. use 40% more resources then people living in other countries. Allowing mass immigration into the U. S. is causing even more stress on the environment. It also lowers the population in the sending countries to the point that reproduction rates continue to skyrocket to fill the void of the people who have left. Also, the people who are the most likely to cause social change in their own countries are often the first to immigrate to the U. S. causing a "brain drain". Things will never get better for world population until our "insane" mass legal immigration (and unlimited amnesty for illegal immigration) policies change.

Congress, are you listening?

Ruining our children's future is not a family value!

-- (, July 22, 2000.

I had always thought that it was our illegal immigration that was the big problem, that our legal immigration was not all that high.

Was I wrong?

-- Wayward (, July 23, 2000.

Legal immigration in the last 40 years has increased dramatically.

Here are some facts:

The level of legal immigration has doubled in the last twenty years. In the 1990s, we have admitted enough new immigrants to make two new cities the size of Washington DC, every year. The 1990 Immigration Act increased legal immigration by forty percent. There are over twenty-five million immigrants already living in the United States; this is a larger population than 49 of the 50 states.

I will use my own family as an example. My brother married legal a immigrant in the 1970's. Since then over 11 people have legally immigrated to this country from China as a result of being related to my brother's wife, and even more may be coming. This is called "chain migration". Furthermore, there is something called "anchor babies". If a woman comes into this country illegally and has a baby here, that baby is a legal immigrant by birth even though their mother broke our laws to come here. Then under the baby's legal status the whole family has a right to "chain migration". There have also been many "amnesties" granted (In 1986, and then almost annually since the late 1990's) which allow people who enter this country illegally to become legal by just proving they have lived here for a certain amount of time. Therefore, even our current immigration laws (as weak as they are) give a false sense of security because illegal immigrants know if they stay here long enough (just a few years) they will probably be granted amnesty. This has led to even more illegal immigration because the hope is there of being granted legal status no matter how you came into the country because it has now become routine for Congress and the Administration to grant it. The out of control human deluge along the Mexican border is a direct result of this failed policy. The people who are crossing the border are not only Mexican, but from other countries as well because they can easily cross there. The same thing is happening at the Canadian border. Also, the INS (Immigration and Naturalization Service) has basically given up enforcing the immigration laws because of Corporate pressure not to get rid of this cheap and easily exploitable source of labor.

Average Annual Immigration Levels in American History:

1607-1775 -- 3,500 1776-1884 -- 14,200 1845-1900 -- 322,000 1901-1914 -- 923,000 1915-1965 -- 220,000 1966-1988 -- 482,000 or ? 1989- now -- 1,122,000 or ?

A good source of information on this vital issue:

They even hav the presidential candidates and members of Congress records on immigration. -

-- K. (, July 23, 2000.

Politics: High-tech visa bill hits snag in Congress

By JIM ABRAMS, Associated Press

WASHINGTON (July 24, 2000 3:46 p.m. EDT - Legislation designed to encourage more high-tech foreign workers to remain in the United States has hit a wall in Congress, despite support from both parties.

Democrats say the bill should include changes in immigration rules to make it easier for some Central Americans and longtime illegal aliens to gain citizenship.

The stalemate has angered both wealthy Silicon Valley sources of political donations and Hispanics who say they hold a trump card in November's elections.

There's widespread support in Congress for issuing more H-1B visas, which let college-educated foreigners work up to six years in the United States. But the future of the visa bill, once considered a certainty to become law this year, is doubtful now that Congress has only a month to complete its work when lawmakers return after Labor Day from their party conventions.

Republicans blame the legislation's fate on Democrats' advocacy of temporarily relaxed citizenship rules for some Hispanics. Democrats argue it's only fair to help people at both ends of the economic spectrum.

Rep. David Dreier, R-Calif., who joined Rep. Zoe Lofgren, D-Calif., on one of the H-1B bills, said it was unfortunate that the issue "has been overtaken by transparent election-year politics which place short-term partisan goals over important national economic needs."

House Minority Leader Dick Gephardt, D-Mo., said Republicans, as the majority party, can move the H-1B bill in any form they want. He said he's disappointed that "Republicans are beginning to play the blame game over who lost H-1B."

Immigration issues don't have to be part of the H-1B measure, but the GOP leadership must not ignore them, Lofgren said. "The Latino community is very focused on this," she said.

Under current law, 115,000 H-1B visas were available in the current fiscal year ending Sept. 30. The number drops to 107,500 in 2001 and to 65,000 the following year. The National Association of Manufacturers says the limit for this year was reached in March, which left U.S. companies unable to fill crucial jobs, "threatening U.S. performance in the global economy."

A Senate bill offered by Sens. Orrin Hatch, R-Utah, and Spencer Abraham, R-Mich., would raise the ceiling to 195,000 a year for three years and direct visa fee money to training U.S. workers. Rep. Lamar Smith, R-Texas, chairman of the House Judiciary Committee's immigration panel, would remove all caps for three years. The Dreier- Lofgren bill would cap visas at 200,000 through fiscal 2003 and fund training programs.

House Majority Leader Dick Armey, R-Texas, said the House can pass an H-1B bill this year if "we keep extraneous issues out of it."

But the White House, backed by Democrats, said this spring it wants immigration legislation this year to include more than H-1B. Currently, illegal aliens must prove they have lived in the United States since 1972 to apply for permanent residence. They want that changed to 1986.

The White House also wants to extend to Salvadorans, Guatemalans, Hondurans and Haitians a 1997 law that offered permanent residence to Cubans and Nicaraguans who were escaping strife in their homelands.

Smith said those steps would result in amnesty for up to 2 million illegal aliens.

"Amnesty is a catalyst for illegal entries," Smith said. "A little bit goes a long way toward encouraging people to enter illegally and wait for the next amnesty."

But Lofgren, whose San Jose district has both a significant high-tech presence and a significant Hispanic population, said taking up H-1B without considering the other issues in some form "will mean thousands of honorable persons in the United States living lives in limbo."

On the Senate side, Majority Leader Trent Lott, R-Miss., and Minority Leader Tom Daschle, D-S.D., are working on the possibility of raising the immigration issues as amendments to an education bill.

Hispanic groups are lobbying hard for the more comprehensive bill and have made clear the outcome could affect votes in November.

"Latinos are a very critical voting bloc," said Cecilia Munoz of the National Council of La Raza, a Hispanic activist group. "Both parties need to stand up to the plate and show they are interested in our issues."

The H-1B bills are S. 2045, H.R. 3983 and H.R. 4227,4457,500231791- 500336376-501920814-0,00.html

-- Martin Thompson (, July 24, 2000.

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