Check out the garbage being posted by the sysop at the GICC forum! : LUSENET : TB2K spinoff uncensored : One Thread

Energy Sector postings - for the archives : LUSENET : Grassroots Information Coordination Center (GICC) : One Thread

I'm posting several articles forwarded to us, for the archives, including:

A thread on the energy sector (Attachment A).

information from an IEA report from 1999 regarding embedded systems and refineries. (Attachment B)

Attachment C includes R.C.'s latest analysis (R.C. has not been heard from in recent weeks, except for this statement.)

Attachment D is a thread about Proctor and Gamble. Mention is made of the impact of petroleum shortages.



FORWARDED: Oil/Gas Refinery Smoking Gun FOUND!! : LUSENET : TimeBomb 2000 (Y2000) : One Thread

This Senator Strom Thurmond Sub Committee Hearing was held in 10/98


Comment to Dr. Hamre by Sen. Thurmond: I understand that the commercial fuel industry is facing a Y2K challenge in their refinery operations. Some reports state that only 30% of their refineries will be renovated by January 1, 2000.

Question to Dr. Hamre by Sen. Thurmond: Has the Department looked at the potential impact on it's operations if 70% of the U.S refinery operations are shut down?

Question to Dr. Hamre by Sen. Thurmond: How long will the Department's supply of fuel last if deliveries are suspended?

-- Smoking Gun (, March 02, 2000



FORWARDED MATERIAL (This material was posted on the Web in May of 1999. The actual report may predate that posting.)

Oil Refineries Are at Risk, Says IEA Report


Refineries are by design highly complex relying heavily on computers for smooth operation. An extensive survey of a refinery in the UK identified 94 systems requiring investigation for Y2K compliance. Of the systems assessed it was found that three would fail and that two of these three failures would cause a shutdown.

Attempting to trace even a small number of potential Y2K problems at a refinery is undeniably a major undertaking.

Refining is but a part of the general problem facing oil companies trying to address Y2K issues. It is a technologically intensive industry and companies are likely to operate myriad date sensitive integrated systems.

Embedded processors are the main source of this sensitivity and are found in devices such as flow meters, transmitters and smart valves. They are found throughout the oil industry and in all sectors, including drilling platforms, production platforms, pipelines and process plants. In the case of process plants, the devices containing embedded chips are interconnected, making the problem even more complex and increasing the possibility of Y2K failure.

A pilot inventory and assessment of a catalytic cracker and co-generation plant in the US revealed 1,035 systems of which 21% were not Y2K compliant and 6% that would lead to serious plant shutdowns or reduced production capabilities. The catalytic cracker would fail, rendering the refinery incapable of making gasoline. Given the widespread use of catalytic crackers in modern refineries, questions must inevitably be raised about their reliability in other refineries. For the co-generation plant 19% of the hardware, 36% of the software and 24% of the custom code was found to be non-compliant.

In late 1997 one oil company's engineers testing valve control equipment in their refineries discovered thousands of terminals controlling the dispensation of oil to have microchips with Y2K problems. All of the chips required replacement, however it was discovered that the replacement chips would not fit on the existing motherboards. It was therefore necessary to order both new chips and motherboards. Worse still, the replacement motherboards were found not to fit the old valves so the valves themselves had to be replaced. This example demonstrates how a Y2K problem can escalate beyond the original fault to include systems that may actually be compliant. An item's Y2K compliancy is therefore no guarantee that its replacement will not be necessitated by problems arising in other equipment.



The following thread is for your interest and information. It begins with statements concerning current oil and gas supplies and embedded systems problems involving refineries and pipelines. Counter points of view are included in the thread.

The following is excerpted from this thread:

Thread from old forum: RC's post and responses ---------------------------------------------------------------------- ---------- Read my introductory comments and then the latest news on the oil situation and the Y2K problems Several weeks ago I was hounded from this forum by certain gangster tactics of the Pollyanna "Gestapo" brigade. Why? Because, I persisted in the notion that Y2K was only just beginning and that my pre- rollover predictions might still be on target for the oil industry due to embeddeds problems. While I had felt that Jan 1 would likely see significant infrastructure disruptions, my predictions indicated that pre-rollover testing indicated that the embeddeds themselves might not act up until later, perhaps not until the end of January or early February. I expected cascading cross-defaults. Well folks, we got 'em in the oil industry, just like I suspected. I was right, the pollies were wrong. Of course, the brownshirt boys declared me wrong, vile and evil back in January. They after all were the only source of truth and knowledge. All others are insane doomers, even those of us who moderated in the middle. If you weren't a BITR guy, you were a doomer. Yeah, they engaged in alot of sweeping generalizations.

See my 3 part forecast just before rollover:

For my obstinance, I became the victim of a vicious smear campaign. The pollies involved were bound and determined to snuff out the voice of moderation (as I never was a "10" doomer). My full identity was revealed. There were attempts made to hack into various aspects of websites I was involved with. There were attempts to hack into my computer. It was really an attempt to force some of my sources out into the open perhaps? or to drive them away? The effort didn't succeed. I've had sources reporting back in finally, but I'd begun to wonder.

I had said that I was finished with posting at this website because no one should be subjected to the abuse that I went thru. This was indeed my intention. However, I've come across a lot of information since then regarding the oil situation that bears publicly posting here one final time as an update. I do this primarily because it seems that this forum may not be around much longer and some news needs to be presented regarding the current oil situation. Also, it is time for vindication to be declared, even if it is prior to any "official" confirmation from the gov. or media or the oil industry spokesmen themselves. I want the "doomers" who've been hounded and tormented by vile polly diatribes to know that they were indeed on the right track. They simply misjudged the absolute severity.

I WAS RIGHT about Oil and Y2K !

I was wrong on the immediate rollover effects in part because in hind sight it seems that some folks tried to change the rules. As I understand it, clocks were apparently rolled back in some cases by some companies. Year codes were reportedly stripped out in other cases. Apparently IT sources indicated to me that this resulted in a temporary reprieve for not just oil but other industries. The problems have been merely delayed and strung out so that not everyone goes down at the same time. Perhaps, it was a smart move in that it helped stave off a mass-collapse of infrastructure all at once. We may yet feel some very significant effects in a variety of industries but perhaps at an affordable price that prevents mass agony. Except for, OIL.

Oil's problems continue to mount, slowly but nonetheless painfully. Problems are showing in certain very key and critical oil fields around the world. Problems have surfaced in larger wells loaded with Large Embedded Systems (LSES). Some of the problems did NOT stop production immediately. I had thought from the discussions I'd had with others, that this would be the case. It did not. However, there have been significant "Downhole" problems. Yes, Factfinder disputes such a term as being non-existent. Frankly, I don't care what he thinks. I'm reporting the facts as given me by the folks doing the remediation. That is the term they use. One of the key downhole problems is that certain system designs in certain oil patches were malfunctioning in the element of separating and pumping various crude oil weights. In other words, some heavier weight crude oil is not able to be pumped out of a well due to the sensors being fried-out by date problems which didn't show up until the embedded's buffers filled up creating a cascading cross-default situation. The end result has been that certain aspects of downhole operation are incapable of allowing various grade-weights of crude to be pumped out of the hole and into the pipeline for transport. Reportedly only lighter weight crude has been pumpable. Now at a given point of time, if the heavier weights are not pumped, the lighter-weight crude supply 'runs dry'. Thus with each passing week, lesser amounts of lighter grades are coming out according to my sources. In other words, the well is able to produce less and less of even the lighter weight crude until eventually it runs dry until the heavier stuff that is blocking it (and is unpumpable) is removed. This seems to be the problem in some of the world's most important fields from the indications that I'm getting.

I cannot divulge the locations that have been reported to me. Key sources in non-US locations are very concerned for their lives. One source fears that (in his words) "they'll put a bullet in my brain." Some of these folks are in nations noted for being dangerous to Americans anyway. The most important thing is they do not want their problems made public. So, as a result, no locations will be posted. I can tell you that I was told of model numbers and part numbers as well as brands. As I understand it, key parts are on backorder from suppliers like Intel and Honeywell etc. Some folks are not expecting order fullfillment on those parts until perhaps April or May, if even then. Apparently the B/O's were supposedly to be fulfilled in Jan, then postponed til Feb, then March. Some pieces I guess have come in but others remain unfulfilled and necessary before installation of the all-new embedded systems can begin. YES, that's right, much of these oil well systems cannot be repaired! They must be replaced, according to my sources. If you could scrounge around some oil patches you might see wooden shipping crates with "Honeywell" stamped on them in oil co storage sheds near oil wells or perhaps out in the open in certain "drier" climates. If I understand correctly these are primarily older systems that as I understand it date back 15 to 20 years old. Either remediation didn't work or they never tried to fix it. (FOF?).

Furthermore, some wells, have avoided problems alltogether even though they're loaded with embeddeds. That is because the date codes year-digits were stripped out in the hopes of avoiding problems. So far, so good. However, one remediation IT source told me that remediation testing prior to rollover showed that such tactics resulted in the systems crashing 99 days into the year. (if I remember that number correctly, and I think I do). So we shall see. I can only rely on what the sources have told me.

Meanwhile, refining problems continue to plague the US gasoline market. Amoco lost a BIG refinery in Whiting, Indiana on Wednesday. St. Croix in the Carribean with its HUGE refinery also went down AGAIN. I think the Amoco plant had gone down before also, but I can't remember for sure. Bottom line (according to one source) is that perhaps half of all US refineries (or more) that use significant amounts of embedded process controls have had minor or significant production problems, slowdowns or outages or safety issues such as fires as a direct result of embeddeds failures...due to overflowing buffers and cascading cross-defaults. Some plants have been idled for weeks, others just crippled for weeks while others were rapidly fixed and back up in minimal time. Usually though, there have been repeated incidents. Sometimes several times within a day. In other words, just when they thought they were safe and out of the woods the systems shut down. Let me just say that there are some remediators out there that are apparently flying like crazy rushing from one problem to another across the USA fixing here, jumping on a plane and going to the next crisis and later perhaps returning to a prior "housecall" to once again perform IT CPR on a unit's system.

The same is applying to pipelines. Pipelines are also experiencing major problems especially where pipelines join together and then fan out again to various destinations. Sometimes those valves still function but the flow meters don't work so there is no way of knowing how much is flowing and in some cases other sensors don't know which grade of product is flowing. Again, this is what I'm being told.

Natural gas pipelines as well as Propane lines are also experiencing related date-rollover embeddeds problems. One company admitted in a PR release back in late January or early Feb that they were experiencing SCADA embeddeds processing problems. This forced them to declare a force majeure for I think for portions of Iowa. I believe this was for Propane deliveries, if I remember correctly.

So, according to sources the estimate is that perhaps somewhere between a third to a half (or more) of the US refineries with embeddeds have already experienced some embeddeds problems. Oddly enough it seems that about 20-30 non-embedded refineries have reported no problems. I know of about a dozen of these where things reportedly seem to be just peachy keen and no problems reported from key sources. SO...why is it that non-embedded refineries are not having these "odd" problems but the embedded systems refineries are having problems??? Hmmm? Oh, it's just a fluke, right? Yeah, sure! Of course, this is all just normal. Considering the fact that January is (and always was) one of the least troublesome times for problems in the oil industry (except during severe cold weather with power outages, etc). Much of January was mild tho' the N.E. USA started experiencing a cold snap in late January. Still these problems started showing up publicly and privately shortly after rollover and we saw some public exposure show up in the media as early as Jan 6th. Note that these problems for the most part have not been cataclysmic as we had feared. But I think there was at least one incident where a refinery fire did take one or two lives. For those families, the Y2K problem was indeed cataclysmic. Of course, the major mainstream TV networks never bother to talk about these problems nor does anyone even hint at a Y2K problem.

So what is the scoop? Well, boys and girls, Moms and Dads, Y2K has and is biting and your friendly folks in .gov and .oil and .media are not bothering to let you in on the secret. In fact, very few folks even in the oil biz know the full story. It's hard to know how much the gov knows. Frankly, even the experts aren't sure just how things will play out. Apparently they're still doing a lot of guessing themselves. If the major media (esp the TV networks) were doing their job we might at least get some decent truth out of the situation, but it seems the networks news outfits have just become propaganda outlets for the status quo.

And, from what I can tell, I don't think the experts out there even know just how widespread or severe the damage is just yet. One IT source tells me that in one significant case, they won't know till they replace one of the key central command points, which will take about 4 months after they get all the parts from Back Order. So when will that be? At least 4 months from now IF they got the missing parts now. If its not til April or May... add another 4 months. AND THEN they'll have a better idea of just how bad the situation really is in this one particular field of BIG oil wells. As I understand it, this scenario is playing in a lot of oil-patch theaters around the globe.

As it stands now, my predictions of a minimum of a 2% loss of crude oil for 3 to 6 months seems to be quite valid. My forecast gave percentages of likelihood for various loss levels. 2% + loss was my most likely forecast at the minimum. It could be that things will get much worse, perhaps 7% or 10% or more and still an outside shot of 30% loss. Who knows? We won't really know for a while. It really depends on how fast backorders get filled and new systems installed. ALSO...more ominous...

One IT source tells me that the quarterly rollover reports may do far more damage as the casualty infliction grows and mushrooms. This source is more worried now about reports due after July 1, especially a July 1 date is a year end report. This IT fellow says the WORST of the problems will not manifest until perhaps February. Their computer models indicate that Feb. of 2001 will be the peak month for if we thought we had problems now, just these little problems just continue to build up quietly in a slow cascading effect of further cross defaults.

Will all of that happen? I don't know. I'm only reporting what I've heard first hand from the source. I do know that most of my oil info is first, second or third hand and are not emails but actual verbal discussions in most cases. Could folks be blowing smoke at me? Perhaps it's possible in some cases, perhaps in the overseas stories. I have no way of cross-checking the overseas news. I do have cross- checks over here in the USA. These are reliable IMHO.

Now, of course, the Pollies will flame this post. They'll rant and rave about unnamed sources and dismiss this as more rumor-mongering. Well, the circumstantial evidence exists out in the establishment media to support what I'm relaying to you. See for yourself in regards to these refineries going down. Ditto on the pipelines. They were not declaring force majeures for nothing. Something significant caused these problems and it wasn't "mother nature" either. Nor was it OPEC. Nor was it some conspiracy by the major oil co's and neither was it overstressed systems due to poorly maintained equipment that was overly neglected from regular maintenance. No folks, its the stuff that has embeddeds. The old manual stuff is getting along just fine. Imagine that! Only the obstinate pollies would deny the reality that Y2K is indeed a lot more serious than a bump in the road.

The oil problems are not phoney attempts by the oil companies to gouge the public. The oil industry really is having problems. They're simply afraid to admit it's Y2K-related. Fear of lawsuits.

Y2K is at least a 5 and growing, in regards to oil and may well end up at a 7. I predicted it would be a 5 to a 7 and I predicted the current oil and gasoline price hikes along with some spot shortages to be likely for the first 3 to 6 months. I figured though that the better likelihood was that it would be mostly over by July... I may have been wrong. It may go on a lot longer after all. Is it the end of the world? NO. But then, I never said it would be. I just said the Pollies were wrong all along. I was right after all. They were wrong and even the doomers only missed on the extent of the problems. They were on the right track. That's something the pollies will NEVER admit to.

I have posted this because it is important that those who felt so belittled by the Polly crowing might now have some level of vindication. Also, I think there needs to be at least one forum left devoted to the Y2K issue and tracking the oil situation so that the truth will come out publicly. I hope Ed will keep at least one forum alive and dedicated to Y2K discussions at least as it may pertain to oil and perhaps too, the planes falling from the skies, a toasted IRS not to mention the banks don't seem to be out of the woods yet either with their mainframe problems. It's way too early to throw in the towel just when snowball is growing bigger and bigger.

I've returned one last time but I will not post further nor comment further. So don't expect me to respond as I will not do so. Meanwhile, I close this post by saying...

I was right. Anything to the right of BITR were right to at least a certain degree. But we'll never, ever get a polly admission nor apology from any of them. That's just the way the Polly's cracker crumbles, I guess.

And hang on to your preps, you may just need some of them anyway as inflation fighters if nothing else, cause surging oil prices will drive up inflation.

I was right afterall.

-- R.C. (, March 02, 2000

******************************************************************************* Discussion Forum Thread

Proctor & Gamble and Petro : LUSENET : TB2K spinoff uncensored : One Thread

My apologies up front if this is on another thread.(Yes I DID look first!) This is from Cnn (sorry no link (link impaired) is still there under market news) Excerpt: "P&G stock closed Tuesday at 61-1/2, down 25-15/16, in New York Stock Exchange composite trading, contributing about 142 points to the Dow's 374-point decline. The warning, which was announced early Tuesday morning, also sent shares in P&G's competitors sharply lower, as Wall Street brokerages warned that they see trouble ahead for makers of diapers and soap amid rising costs for raw materials such as pulp and petroleum. Pulp is used in a wide array of paper products while petroleum is an ingredient in detergents, shampoos and packaging."

It appears that the lack of petrol is causing Big problems. My question is: What other companies are in for "a big kick in the rear" Maybe this is the beginning ofthe 'cascade'? Off to the store to buy more Ivory ;-)

-- Rewind (, March 07, 2000

Answers (snip) CNN link -- Bill (, March 07, 2000. ***********************************************************************************

-- GICC Sysop (, July 18, 2000

===================================== There's more. Too much to cut&paste. -Buddy =====================================


There appears to be more rolling in, for the archives LOL!

GICC doomer validation forum

-- Buddy (, July 18, 2000


GICC is this year's StenchBombed-2000. A great demonstration that somewhere on the net there is a "home" for anyone. Started as a "sincere effort" it quickly died when its avowed purpose (collating Y2k computer glitch problems) was a member of the Set[Empty].

Now it has been seized by the same twits that inhabit the caves of EYII-SleaEZy and Hyattski's house of Fear.


-- cpr (, July 18, 2000.


GICC is this year's StenchBombed-2000. A great demonstration that somewhere on the net there is a "home" for anyone. Started as a "sincere effort" it quickly died when its avowed purpose (collating Y2k computer glitch problems) was a member of the Set[Empty].

Now it has been seized by the same twits that inhabit the caves of EYII-SleaEZy and Hyattski's house of Fear.


-- cpr (, July 18, 2000.

So, does all this mean the universities will soon be treated to a whole NEW collection on CD? Is Charlie's Greatest Hits, Vol. II in the works?

-- (Enquiring.Minds@Want.To.Know), July 18, 2000.

CPR,I think You with Your Crud(corporate Huds and Wall Street Leeches) need to be locked up in Barrows,AK for a long Stretch.

-- Not Really (that@impressed.CRUD), July 19, 2000.

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