Sun Goes Boom, You are Dead.... X5 Flare!!!! Earth Directed CME!!!greenspun.com : LUSENET : TB2K spinoff uncensored : One Thread
NOAA Report on Geophysical and Solar Activity.
Solar Activity report issued: 2000 Jul 14 2200 UT
Recent Conditions: ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM 13/2100Z TO 14/2100Z : SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS HIGH. REGION 9077 (N18W09) PRODUCED AN X5/3B X-RAY EVENT AT 14/1024Z. THIS EVENT HAD AN ASSOCIATED 3000 SFU TENFLARE, A TYPE II SWEEP WITH A SPEED OF APPROXIMATELY 1300 KM/S, AND A STRONG TYPE IV SWEEP. THE SOHO/LASCO IMAGERY INDICATES A FULL HALO, EARTH DIRECTED CME FROM THIS EVENT. REGION 9077 ALSO PRODUCED AN M3/1N AT 14/1344Z. CURRENTLY, REGION 9077 IS AN FKC BETA-GAMMA-DELTA SUNSPOT GROUP AND HAS SHOWN SLIGHT GROWTH SINCE YESTERDAY. REGION 9085 (N13E47) CONTINUED TO SHOW SOME MINOR GROWTH DURING THE PERIOD. NEW REGIONS 9087 (S12E71) AND 9088 (N23E25) WERE NUMBERED TODAY.
24-hour Forecast: SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST : SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AT MODERATE TO HIGH LEVELS. REGION 9077 AND 9085 AND 9081 (N02E29) HAVE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE M-CLASS EVENTS. ANOTHER MAJOR EVENT IS POSSIBLE FROM REGION 9077.
Geomagnetic Activity report issued: 2000 Jul 14 2200 UT
Recent Conditions: GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 13/2100Z TO 14/2100Z : THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET TO MAJOR STORM. ONE ISOLATED PERIOD OF MAJOR STORMING OCCURRED FROM 14/1500-1800Z. THIS IS BELIEVED TO BE ASSOCIATED WITH THE X1/2B EVENT ON 12 JULY. THE X-CLASS EVENT DESCRIBED IN PART 1A. PRODUCED PROTON EVENTS AT THE GREATER THAN 10 AND 100 MEV WHICH REMAIN IN PROGRESS AT THIS TIME. THE GREATER THAN 100 MEV CROSSED THE EVENT THRESHOLD OF 1 PFU AT 14/1040Z, REACHED A PEAK FLUX OF 310 PFU AT 14/1310Z, AND HAS BEGUN TO DECLINE. THE GREATER THAN 10 MEV CROSSED THE 10 PFU EVENT THRESHOLD AT 14/1050Z, AND HAS NOT YET PEAKED (HIGHEST FLUX OBSERVED SO FAR WAS 8370 PFU AT 14/1850Z). THE PCA ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FLARE BEGAN AT ABOUT 14/1041Z, PEAKED AT 28.0 DB, AND REMAINS IN PROGRESS. THIS X5 EVENT PRODUCED THE SECOND GROUND LEVEL EVENT (GLE) OF THE SOLAR CYCLE (LAST GLE IN NOVEMBER, 1997). THE THULE, GREENLAND NEUTRON MONITORS MEASURED THE GLE BEGINNING AT 14/1036Z, PEAKED WITH ABOUT A 36% INCREASE ABOVE BACKGROUND AT 14/1043Z AND APPEARS TO HAVE ENDED AT 14/1415Z. MULTIPLE SHORT DURATION MAGNETOPAUSE CROSSINGS WERE OBSERVED ON GOES-8 (W074) FROM 14/1740Z TO APPROXIMATELY 14/1810Z AND 14/1915Z TO 14/2000Z.
24-hour Forecast: GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST : DUE TO THE EXPECTED ARRIVAL OF AN EARTH-DIRECTED FULL HALO CME FROM THE X5/3B EVENT MENTIONED ABOVE IN 1A. THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS EXPECTED TO SEE AN INCREASE DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE FIRST DAY. MAJOR TO SEVERE STORM LEVELS ARE POSSIBLE AFTER THE STORM ONSET THROUGH THE SECOND DAY OF THE PERIOD. BY LATE ON THE THIRD DAY OF THE PERIOD ACTIVITY SHOULD START TO DECREASE TO ACTIVE TO MINOR STORM CONDITIONS.
-- The Sun (Can@Kill.you), July 14, 2000
We're all going to die.
-- FutureShock (email@example.com), July 14, 2000.
whaaaa youre scaring me
-- cin (firstname.lastname@example.org), July 14, 2000.
Kewl! I'll get the deck chairs for the Aurora Light Show if you make the popcorn.
-- LunaC (PurpleMicrodot@Colors.com), July 14, 2000.
Wear your tin-foil hats. You will be safe.
-- (email@example.com), July 15, 2000.
Saturday July 15 12:22 AM ET
Solar Flare Could Disrupt Power Saturday, U.S Says
WASHINGTON (Reuters) - A huge solar flare produced by a large sunspot group is expected to produce a geomagnetic storm that could disrupt electric power grids and satellite operations, U.S. government scientists predicted on Friday.
The flare spewed out billions of tons of plasma and charged particles at 6:24 a.m. EDT (1024 GMT) on Friday that are expected to reach the Earth's magnetic field when it is Saturday afternoon on the U.S. East Coast, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) said.
NOAA's Space Environment Center in Boulder, Colorado, which detected the flare, predicted that a geomagnetic storm could last until Monday. The charged particles are making the 93 million mile (150 million km) trip toward Earth at 3 million miles per hour (4.82 million kph), it said.
``The storm is expected to reach strong to severe levels ... which can adversely affect satellite operations and power grids,'' the center warned in a statement.
NOAA predicted similar disruptions last month after a solar flare erupted on June 7. But the emissions from that flare were harmlessly deflected by the Earth's magnetic shield, leaving electricity, satellite and communications companies with only minor problems.
The latest solar flare already has caused some effects on Earth, including radio blackouts on the sunlit side of the planet, the center said.
The solar activity also should give mid-latitude areas, including the U.S. cities of Washington, New York, Denver and Seattle a good chance of seeing the Aurora Borealis on Saturday night through Sunday morning, the center said.
NASA's ACE satellite, in orbit about 1 million miles (1.6 million km) from Earth, will detect any approaching geomagnetic storms and provide NOAA with a warning about an hour before they reach Earth's magnetic field, it said.
The recent flares erupted during largest solar radiation storm since October 1989, the center said.
In March of 1989, a solar storm knocked out the electrical system in all of Quebec and destroyed a large power transformer in New Jersey.
-- (firstname.lastname@example.org), July 15, 2000.
The perfect storm from outer space
Watch out for disruptions and auroras
WASHINGTON, July 14 A magnetic storm that could disrupt radio transmissions and satellites and also produce colorful northern lights is expected to strike the earth Saturday and could last until Monday. The massive sunspot eruption took place early Friday, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration reported.
THE STORM is expected to reach strong to severe levels, which can adversely affect satellite operations and power grids, reported the agency.
In addition, space weather forecasters said there is a good chance of seeing the aurora Saturday through Sunday morning in cities as far south as Washington, D.C., Seattle, New York and Denver.
NOAAs Space Environment Center in Boulder, Colo., reported that Fridays large complex sunspot group produced one of the largest solar flares seen in recent years.
The solar flare, a giant eruption bursting out from the surface of the sun, took place about 6:24 a.m. EDT, the center said.
The event ejected billions of tons of plasma and charged particles into space, some of it heading toward Earth at 3 million miles per hour. The mass ejection is expected to strike the Earths magnetic field on Saturday afternoon and cause the geomagnetic storm.
The Earths magnetic field protects the planet from most such charged particles, but in a strong burst such as this some disruptions can occur. As the field deflects the incoming particles they are moved toward the north and south poles where they cause the northern and southern lights, called auroras.
The NOAA scientists reported that the solar flare has already caused some effects on Earth, including some radio blackouts.
A NASA satellite located about one million miles upstream from Earth detects geomagnetic storms approaching Earth and provides NOAA forecasters with a warning about one hour before they reach Earths magnetic field.
In 1989, a severe solar storm knocked out power stations serving Canada and the northeastern states, as well as an electrical transformer in New Jersey. Since then, power grid and satellite operators have taken steps to protect their systems.
The sun is currently in the most intense phase of its 11-year sunspot cycle.
) 2000 Associated Press. All rights reserved.
-- (email@example.com), July 15, 2000.
-- Chicken Little (firstname.lastname@example.org), July 15, 2000.
I've still got my preps...
-- Uncle Bob (email@example.com), July 15, 2000.
Anyone remember Dr. Doom's (Ed Dames) predictions about a "kill shot"?
-- Flash (firstname.lastname@example.org), July 15, 2000.
I remember the Ed Dames prediction. He said there would be a precursor event prior to the kill shot. I wonder if this is the precusor event. Remote viewer Joe McMoneagle was on Coast to Coast AM last night. He is predicting a serious economic decline. He was reported to be one of the best remote viewers in the US military program.
-- Dave (email@example.com), July 15, 2000.
Let's all go to Uncle Bob's house if this thing actually kill all of us!
-- Butt Nugget (firstname.lastname@example.org), July 15, 2000.