THE HAIR DRYER CAPERS Part TWO: ****WHERE DID THE SILLY IDEA COME FROM THAT **HAIR DRYERS WOULD FAIL BECAUSE OF Y2k EMBEDDED CHIP PROBLEMS ( http://hv.greenspun.com/bboard/q-and-a-fetch-msg.tcl?msg_id=003SW8 )LINK ?****

WHY IT CAME FROM NOT ONE BUT TWO Ph.Ds. in Physics (shame on them for forgetting their undergrad training) by way of the Weekly Shakespeare and Taos newsletter.

I debunked it in a post to de Jager and other Lists on first reading because the report of one single 14 pin DIP chip in a "hair dryer" told me instantly NO WAY could it even be programmed for much beyond on/off. Here was a "story" as pitiful as "Time Dilation/Crouch Eichlin". Without laboring the technicalities, to put a "date capability" into a Hair dryer would require more chips and sort or firm ware. WHY Carmichael or Frautschi dared to "MAKE A FEDERAL CASE OUT OF THIS" HAIR DRYER shows the LACK OF JUDGEMENT on both their part but also the fact that the Press had their BS Detectors set to "mighty low" during the heydays of Y2k Fud in Winter, 1998-1999.

The story needs some background because once the players are identified it will be easy to see how the "interconnectedness" of the Y2k FUD MONGERS enabled by the Net ended up in New Zealand NEEDLESSLY PANICKING LOVERS OF WELL COIFFED TRESSES.

The trail starts with the Y2k Dr. DooDoo Carmichael and his partner THE Dr. Markie Frautschi (a Y2k Leader as his new resume informs us) and ends in the media (first snips below). Along the way, Paula Gordon was not properly informed which seems strange since she cites both Dr. DooDoo and the hapless Markie. And stranger since when it comes to Y2k "needless panicking", Paula Gordon was and is, the leader in that field.

First one has to know that the "World Futurists Society" sposored a Y2k "conference" in DC in Dec. 1998 (long after the world knew about the problem and calling into question their "SoothSaying Abilities". A driver for this was one Dr. Douglas (DooDoo) Carmichael who had a partner, Dr. Mark Fraustchi, a Quantum (but non working at Quantum) Physicist. Both were "Hitchhikers on the Y2k Pork Train" but their pickings had been slim. Frauschi, relying on sources mostly on the internet (many of them highly questionable), had stitched together a "White Paper" on the THREAT??? of "embedded systems" which became his CV for work as a "Y2k Consultant" (even though he had NOT ONE IOTA's WORTH of experience in the field). Frautschi's "work" had even been through 4 or 5 "iterations" some at the behest of the Late Harlan Smith who actually had once SEEN an embedded system though he was a "Radar Guy"(which was mostly analog before he retired). Smith had not been kind to Frautschi who chose to IGNORE both Smith and others who had literally scorned the "White Paper". http://hv.greenspun.com/bboard/q-and-a-fetch-msg.tcl?msg_id=00074G LINK

Below we posted a story of a New Zealand Conference which had a NYC brainwashed "Futurist" predicting ALL (not some ALL) hair dryers would fail come 1/1/2000. DISASTER (especially in Dallas and Texas where "Big Hair" requires the use of ALL TOOLS AVAILABLE even for routine daily maintenance. Think of the chaos, the HORROR....BUT..... ***WHERE DID THE "FUTURIST" GET THE STORY?". FIRST WE WILL TRACK BACK THE THINKING AND THEN SHOW YOU THE SOURCE. GOSSIP Y2k DISASTER MONGERS PREDICATED A "calendar function" of assorted uPs and uCs might SCREW UP...........even though EVERY DESIGN ENGINEER KNOWS THAT THE **PIN** FOR THE FUNCTION MUST BE ADDRESSED for that to happen. (That alone blew away the BS of one Bruce Beach and this person below.)

The STAGE IS SET

QUOTE:
Even if an appliance -- a curling iron, for example -- doesn't need to keep track of a date, that doesn't mean the chip inside is not keeping the date, Frautschi said.

UNQUOTE

Published on February 4, 1999 Y2K TODAY Everyday devices may fail

It first appeared in Hot CoCo,http://www.hotcoco.com/, the online edition of the Contra Costa Times.

-- It's not just your PC at risk; clocks, coffee makers and furnaces also at risk from Millennium bug By Mike Kennedy KNIGHT RIDDER NEWSPAPERS

John Ahearne, director of communications for the information systems services division of General Motors, said GM cars would start up and function normally on Jan. 1, 2000. They've been checking these things for years, Ahearne said. It's all aken care of. They're very confident there won't be a problem.

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

NOT GOOD ENOUGH FOR FEAR MONGER FRAUSTCHI (Ph.D):

XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX

Others familiar with Y2K issues aren't so sanguine.

A product that doesn't use a calendar to work properly could still have a calendar function -- and potential Y2K troubles -- on its computer chip, said Mark Frautschi, a Y2K consultant in Lutherville, Md.

For some manufacturers, it might be cheaper to buy chips off the shelf instead of customizing chips for their products. Those chips could have more functions, such as date keeping, than is necessary for the product.

Even if an appliance -- a curling iron, for example -- doesn't need to keep track of a date, that doesn't mean the chip inside is not keeping the date, Frautschi said.

Tracking down what information is on a chip can be difficult when companies buy chips from third-party sources and the original computer code isn't available.

If you don't get to the company that produced the software, you're going to have a hard time determining if it's Y2K-compliant, Weir said.

And some chips may have a delayed Y2K problem if they have calendar functions that are not in step with the actual date, Frautschi said. The chip's internal clock may not arrive at Jan. 1, 2000, until months or years later.

Even with those potential troubles, Frautschi says he thinks problems will arise in only a tiny percentage of consumer products. SNIP

+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

SOURCE OF THE ORIGINAL "HAIR DRYER" STORY: FRAUTSCHI in Dr. DooDoo's weekly waste of bandwidth:

ON THE EMBEDDED FRONT:

-This week I did some Y2K consulting with a greeting card company. I took an Amtrak train back to Baltimore, and spent much of the trip counting switches along the way. I noticed that there were three types of track, the main line, a secondary line, also electrified and a tertiary line, generally without wires overhead that accommodates diesel engines only. Pretty much only the tertiary line had any manual switches remaining. Senator Rob Bennett's comments that all of the manual switches have been replaced seems true along this section of the eastern seaboard.

The self-actuated switches appear connected to a common high pressure line which appears to provide the motive force. I asked about Amtrak's Y2K program at the information and customer service desks when I arrived and was told to contact their headquarters. [Later I sent e-mail (no reply yet) and searched their web site and found: http://www.amtrak.com/news/pr/atk98164_gov.html ]

From Baltimore's Penn Station I took the Light Rail system north. All of the switches I saw were remotely actuated. Further, they all have manual override and do not appear to require a high pressure line. The manual lever is padlocked in one position to prevent tampering. (Thus, there must be a clutch which allows the switch to operate under remote control while the manual lever is locked down.)

When I got off of the light rail, I talked with two workers who were working on a switch near my station. They graciously answered my questions about the y2k issue and switches and said that the issue had been looked into system wide and that the switches had been made compliant by replacing a single circuit board at the MTA's facility down town. {I sent a query to the MTA about their Y2K program, as well.)

Perhaps the Y2K fixes in the railroads will not be that hard to make. If a few circuit boards in central locations are all that need to be replaced that is a much easier job than replacing the switches themselves.

Can manual overrides be added to Amtrak's switches?

On the way back from the Light Rail station I asked my taxi cab driver about the navigational aids installed in his dashboard and whether it could display a date. (First of all, the cab driver was extremely up to date on Y2K and exclaimed that he did not care whether his companies systems failed!) He could not display the date.

My wife's hair curling iron has an LED that blinks at a 1/2 second interval and an auto shut-off feature. Out of curiosity, I looked inside. There was a single, 14-pin dual in-line package chip! I called the company that sold it, after talking with two customer service agents and a manager, I was referred to the company that made it. I called them, and after talking with three people, I was given the name of the engineer who wrote the specs on the chip. I left a voice mail. We will see whether this chip is at risk, and is compliant.

As organizations wake up to the embedded systems problem, the perception gets gloomier. For example, In an environment of sparse information, there is little to check the progress of the gloom. How real is the basis for the gloom? see:

LINK

http://www.tmn.com/y2k/y2kweek67.htm

Y2k week X week 67 "never more than four pages"  oops!

Shakespeare and Tao Consulting http://tmn.com/y2k

Douglass Carmichael with Mark Frautschi

These weekly notes are part of a dialog built around an evolving set of scenarios (see http://tmn.com/y2k). Consider this an impression from the week, sighting of early indicators, deeper theorizing..) Back issues archived at http://tmn.com/y2k

-- cpr (buytexas@swbell.net), July 09, 2000

Answers

REMEMBER THE FOLLOWING IS IN 1998. LONG BEFORE **ANYONE KNEW WHAT TO PREPARE FOR*** BUT LONG AFTER THE I.T. People and the Press had made the problem more than well known.

Did the horrifying possibility of Failed Hair Dryers ROUSE THE CITIZENRY IN MARYLAND?? Frauschi tries to organize the sub-division (he was the Home Owner's Association President).

LINK

http://www.tmn.com/y2k/y2kweek60.htm

Suzette Mullooly, who directs the Y2K program for Alliant Energy, sent me copies of her company's literature entitled "FYI... Year 2000". This is an informational tool kit that describes what personal and corporate rate payers can do to prepare for Y2K, what Alliant is doing and what some of the risks are. I gave the web-based version in a previous newsletter:http://www.alliant- energy.com/alliant/y2k/brochure/intro.htm Seeing it "in print", on glossy paper that requires no web browser or internet access to read is another experience all together. I consider this a high expression of one firm's commitment to its customers, its community and ultimately its employees and shareholders, since all are linked.

I plan to show these brochures at the neighborhood meeting that we are having tomorrow night about Y2K at our home. I will show the letter from our local power company, one from Idaho Electric Power (http://www2.state.id.us/itrmc/2k/respimgs/idpow.jpg) as well as the first quarterly NERC Report to DoE (http://www.nerc.com/). I walked to each of the fifty houses in our neighborhood and left a reminder leaflet on Sunday. I spoke with a few neighbors I did not encounter when I left the first announcement a week before.

One of them told me "You know, I heard that that thing had been solved - only problem is that it costs $7,000.00 for each PC!" We chatted a bit about the absence of "silver bullets" and embedded systems and he showed some interest in coming. I had the impression that if there was something good on television Tuesday evening that we would not be seeing him. Another neighbor said that she would be out of town that evening. I lent her a copy of the 9 minute video entitled "Y2K & You" from Public Technology Inc. (http://www.pti.org/) that was sent to 30,000 local and municipal managers this summer. She watched it last night and left it in my door this morning without comment. Another neighbor said that they would not attend since they were returning to Europe in two weeks. I invited them to come anyhow, to share that perspective, and to consider that the problem will also impact Europe. I said that in the US we have the perhaps self-centered perception that we are not as far behind as other countries

I have a sense of a very low level of neighborhood interest in tomorrow night's meeting. The question is how to communicate about the risks effectively. My sense is that the message others are getting from me is 'doom and gloom' and quite appropriately, no one wants to buy any of that. I'm looking at the question that so many of the people speaking out on Y2K face, which is how to communicate the risks and the opportunities for action effectively.

NEXT THE ***SAD,SAD STORY OF DR. MARKIE's PAUL REVERE EFFORTS REJECTED BY THE CITIZENRY:

LINK

There were no visitors to the neighborhood Y2K awareness meeting Teresa and I hosted on Tuesday night. While this result may say something about my neighborhood, it also may say something about me, about who I've been being about Y2K. I got some coaching about this and was encouraged to look back for an earlier, similar, incident, where I felt compelled to try to save something - my parent's marriage, when I was age 10. The bottom line is that that marriage was not mine to save.

One thing that I have learned is that people are not interested in hearing about "the end of the world" and they are also not interested in being "saved" by a 41 year old man, or a ten year old boy. I think that ultimately we are all responsible for ourselves, and I am afraid that this extends to the young, weak and frail. While we value life and quality of life very highly in every culture around the world, when these cultures suffer a breakdown, our commitment to these values is challenged. We may see a variety of responses to the Y2K problem around the world. Indeed, we already are. When people allow themselves to wake up to this issue, they will act to save themselves. While we can continue to raise consciousness locally and globally, we may run into limits as to how many people, how fast, are able to "get it".

One of the neighbors I invited I had already shown the PTI "Y2k & You" video (http://www.pti.org/) He said that he did not want to come. It was not worth his time since there was no solution. Another neighbor said that there was nothing a few households could do against such a large problem, so why have a meeting about it? 45 of the 50 households did not respond to our invitation.

-- cpr (buytexas@swbell.net), July 09, 2000.

REMEMBER THE FOLLOWING IS IN 1998. LONG BEFORE **ANYONE KNEW WHAT TO PREPARE FOR*** BUT LONG AFTER THE I.T. People and the Press had made the problem more than well known.

Did the horrifying possibility of Failed Hair Dryers ROUSE THE CITIZENRY IN MARYLAND?? Frauschi tries to organize the sub-division (he was the Home Owner's Association President).

LINK

http://www.tmn.com/y2k/y2kweek60.htm

Suzette Mullooly, who directs the Y2K program for Alliant Energy, sent me copies of her company's literature entitled "FYI... Year 2000". This is an informational tool kit that describes what personal and corporate rate payers can do to prepare for Y2K, what Alliant is doing and what some of the risks are. I gave the web-based version in a previous newsletter:http://www.alliant- energy.com/alliant/y2k/brochure/intro.htm Seeing it "in print", on glossy paper that requires no web browser or internet access to read is another experience all together. I consider this a high expression of one firm's commitment to its customers, its community and ultimately its employees and shareholders, since all are linked.

I plan to show these brochures at the neighborhood meeting that we are having tomorrow night about Y2K at our home. I will show the letter from our local power company, one from Idaho Electric Power (http://www2.state.id.us/itrmc/2k/respimgs/idpow.jpg) as well as the first quarterly NERC Report to DoE (http://www.nerc.com/). I walked to each of the fifty houses in our neighborhood and left a reminder leaflet on Sunday. I spoke with a few neighbors I did not encounter when I left the first announcement a week before.

One of them told me "You know, I heard that that thing had been solved - only problem is that it costs $7,000.00 for each PC!" We chatted a bit about the absence of "silver bullets" and embedded systems and he showed some interest in coming. I had the impression that if there was something good on television Tuesday evening that we would not be seeing him. Another neighbor said that she would be out of town that evening. I lent her a copy of the 9 minute video entitled "Y2K & You" from Public Technology Inc. (http://www.pti.org/) that was sent to 30,000 local and municipal managers this summer. She watched it last night and left it in my door this morning without comment. Another neighbor said that they would not attend since they were returning to Europe in two weeks. I invited them to come anyhow, to share that perspective, and to consider that the problem will also impact Europe. I said that in the US we have the perhaps self-centered perception that we are not as far behind as other countries

I have a sense of a very low level of neighborhood interest in tomorrow night's meeting. The question is how to communicate about the risks effectively. My sense is that the message others are getting from me is 'doom and gloom' and quite appropriately, no one wants to buy any of that. I'm looking at the question that so many of the people speaking out on Y2K face, which is how to communicate the risks and the opportunities for action effectively.

NEXT THE ***SAD,SAD STORY OF DR. MARKIE's PAUL REVERE EFFORTS REJECTED BY THE CITIZENRY:

LINK

There were no visitors to the neighborhood Y2K awareness meeting Teresa and I hosted on Tuesday night. While this result may say something about my neighborhood, it also may say something about me, about who I've been being about Y2K. I got some coaching about this and was encouraged to look back for an earlier, similar, incident, where I felt compelled to try to save something - my parent's marriage, when I was age 10. The bottom line is that that marriage was not mine to save.

One thing that I have learned is that people are not interested in hearing about "the end of the world" and they are also not interested in being "saved" by a 41 year old man, or a ten year old boy. I think that ultimately we are all responsible for ourselves, and I am afraid that this extends to the young, weak and frail. While we value life and quality of life very highly in every culture around the world, when these cultures suffer a breakdown, our commitment to these values is challenged. We may see a variety of responses to the Y2K problem around the world. Indeed, we already are. When people allow themselves to wake up to this issue, they will act to save themselves. While we can continue to raise consciousness locally and globally, we may run into limits as to how many people, how fast, are able to "get it".

One of the neighbors I invited I had already shown the PTI "Y2k & You" video (http://www.pti.org/) He said that he did not want to come. It was not worth his time since there was no solution. Another neighbor said that there was nothing a few households could do against such a large problem, so why have a meeting about it? 45 of the 50 households did not respond to our invitation.

-- cpr (buytexas@swbell.net), July 09, 2000.

OFF I SAY!!!

-- cpr (buytexas@swbell.net), July 09, 2000.

-- cpr (buytexas@swbell.net), July 09, 2000.

IT'S A SUBSET OF THE SET!!!!!!!!!!!!!!


Oh, sorry. Wrong thread.

-- J (Y2J@home.comm), July 09, 2000.

My wife's hair curling iron has an LED that blinks at a 1/2 second interval and an auto shut-off feature. Out of curiosity, I looked inside. There was a single, 14-pin dual in-line package chip! I called the company that sold it, after talking with two customer service agents and a manager, I was referred to the company that made it. I called them, and after talking with three people, I was given the name of the engineer who wrote the specs on the chip. I left a voice mail. We will see whether this chip is at risk, and is compliant.

-- cpr (buytexas@swbell.net), July 09, 2000.

I fail to see the significance of reporting on what anyone said about hairdryers in 1998. I don't own a hairdryer now and I didn't own one then. If this is a warning that PhD's know nothing about hairdryers, I'm not surprised by the news.

-- Anita (Anita_S3@hotmail.com), July 09, 2000.

Forget trying to close individual fonts, do a "master font" closure :o)

And Charles, thanks for posting this one, that was one of the main problems with trying to explain against "hidden" clock/date" functions. The cost of a chip with that in it would cost many times more than a one that has simple functions. And there never has been a "hidden" or "unknown" clock/date function in any chips sold.

-- Cherri (sams@brigadoon.com), July 10, 2000.

Cherri, would you PLEASE teach me HTML, PLEASE? This gets so embarassing!!

-- cpr (buytexas@swbell.net), July 10, 2000.

Anita,

I have to agree and disagree with you. Yes there are people who like to dwell (OK harp) on the past. But their opposites are people who refuse to see where they ever made any errors. They never made no mistakes, no way, no how.

Personally I think that kind of non-thinking causes far more problems then we like to admit. Its only by acknowledging mistakes, analyzing them and not repeating them can we learn and move onward. It may be onward to newer, bigger, and better mistakes but at least its not repeating the same mistake over and over.

The problem wasnt Y2K. It was Y2K think. I am sure that many of the doomsters still think that there were a lot of disasters that were covered up, or that if only they had the true facts they could have come to the correct conclusions. You see this in all facets of life today. When was the last time any politician (OK McCane with the South Carolina Flag) said that they were wrong and screwed up?

There was an article I read a number of years ago that said the reason there are so many medical malpractice suits was because patients were furious that when their doctors made a mistake, they wouldnt acknowledge it. Now I realize that if they did they could leave themselves open to even bigger suits, but Im sure you get the idea. Why do parents always want their children to apologize but find it almost impossible to admit to their children when THEY make a mistake?

The psychology of Y2K think is far more interesting then Y2K.

-- The Engineer (spcengineer@yahoo.com), July 10, 2000.

Anita, here is the "take home lesson" for YOU. FRAUTSCHI's "White Paper" sits on a US Gov. Web site as "information". It is riddled to this day with the holes that even Harlan Smith tried to get Frautschi to fix.

The "hair dryer" like Time Dilation and Secondary Clocks are only SYMPTONS OF THE SHODDY WORK THAT FRAUTSCHI,,,,,,,,,,hiding behind his PH.D. did and offered to Businesses and Government for sale.

IF......DR. MARK FRAUTSCHI DID THAT SORT OF WORK WHILE AT *FERMI LABS* he would be **FIRED**. Instead, he and Carmichael were "teaching others" about "embedded" and the dangers to Society, week after week on list serves and at Conferences. Frautschi even made it to "Staff" at the Funded "Center for Y2k and Wasted Grant Money".

HINT: ........he had NO.......ABSOLUTELY NO CREDENTIALS TO OFFER SERVICES AS AN "EMBEDDED SYSTEMS" EXPERT. Now on his web site, he has the term "Leader" of the Y2k WHAT? Doom Movement or HYPE MOVEMENT?? THIS IS **POPPYCOCK** and should have been exposed at once for what it was. Instead, the story worked itself around the world to NEW ZEALAND carried by a "Futurist" from NYC **GOSSIPING** about things she had no knowledge about. HOW MANY MORE DID THE SAME THING,,,,,enabled by the NET???

*******************************************

My wife's hair curling iron has an LED that blinks at a 1/2 second interval and an auto shut-off feature. Out of curiosity, I looked inside. There was a single, 14-pin dual in-line package chip! I called the company that sold it, after talking with two customer service agents and a manager, I was referred to the company that made it. I called them, and after talking with three people, I was given the name of the engineer who wrote the specs on the chip. I left a voice mail. We will see whether this chip is at risk, and is compliant. FRAUTSCHI's words.

**************************************

FRAUTSCHI's "white paper" on embedded was a major reference for THE Paula Gordon. So what? His White Paper was drivel (dribble and drool actually) itself "borrowing" from Cowles and Roleigh Gump's "White Papers" all of which were *highly speculative*.

ALL offered their "services" to the market place one way or the other. FRAUTSCHI like Gordon got carried away. In addition to the Hair Dryer bull shit, he backed "Time Dilation" and demanded independent studies were needed even after Intel and Compaq stated on their web sites, they could not reproduce the "effect" even with Crouch's machine upon which he claimed he first found his "Crouch/Echlin Effect".

NEXT, Frautschi as the author of the White Paper also supported one Beachball Brucie Beach's "Secondary Clocks" and NEITHER OF THEM to this DAY..........know their ass from a hole in ground about "Embedded systems" and how Semi Devices work in them.

Its the HAIR DRYER CAPER.......the first of this CRAP that should have been exposed and frankly,,,,,used to put Carmichael and Frautschi out of the "Y2k Consulting" business. NO WAY...absolutely NO WAY could a SINGLE..."14 pin" DIP have a CALENDAR FUNCTION IN A HAIR DRYER. I was not an Electronics Engineer to know that he was wrong from the beginning. Same with the Time Dilation and "Secondary Clock" nonsense.

-- cpr (buytexas@swbell.net), July 10, 2000.

And what was frustrating was that many, soo many people believed this stuff from these people because they were supposed to be experts.

How many people were scared, scared for their lives and the safety of their families because of these people who, for whatever reason, lied. Out and out lied.

If a doctor tells people they have cancer when they don't, they have to pay for that mistake, they can be sued and answer for needless fear and medical expences that information incurs. The same should hold true for those who did the same in Y2K. Some of them should pay for the mental and financial cost they cost others. Especially if it can be proven that they did it for a profit. I don't understand why the people who were taken are not up at arms demanding that those who did this to them answer for their "crimes".

Yes Charles, I will help you with your HTML

-- Cherri (sams@brigadoon.com), July 11, 2000.

Cherri, I understand what you are saying. But in this instance we are talking about beauty aids! I certainly didn't expect my hair dryer or curling iron to magically stop working at the stroke of midnight, but even if they had, who cares?

At the most, this is an amusing story to me. I just don't understand the premise that stories such as these influenced me in any way or somehow sucked me into that orchestrated plan to part me from my hard earned money.

I certainly didn't rush out and purchase a Marcel Iron to heat in my (non existent) wood stove just so I could have curly hair! But, even if I had, that Marcel Iron *could* come in handy *some day* (smiling)!

-- Grace (SincerelyGrace@aol.com), July 11, 2000.

-- (hmm@hmm.hmm), September 17, 2000.