Gasoline futures DOWN AGAIN. Sgt.Friday's Plump Woman Singing Loudly today. : LUSENET : TB2K spinoff uncensored : One Thread



-- cpr (, July 06, 2000


I certainly won't say you are wrong in your overall conclusion that the price of gas and other petroleum products will drop from the point they were at when you and the Sarge statred your little dance. If nothing else, wisdom would say "never back any horse that the Saudis aren't backing, too." The Saudis want oil at US$25 to US$29 per barrel. They will get it there sooner or later.

But, as I recall, the Sarge put a time frame of September on this wager. You might want to wait until the finish line has been crossed before you declare your horse has won. You haven't got past the second turn, yet.

-- Brian McLaughlin (, July 06, 2000.

NOPE. **HE** should wait and watch the call go to zip. He could cut his losses short but he is probably waiting for the "technical recovery". He lost when he started. Any sophisticated player would know this was a spot shortage. IPSO FACTO: spot shortages END when someone SHIPS. Saudi will ship and the rest of OPEC will then fall in line. Only a WAR can interrupt that process. "Y2k" was not that "war".

His error was made when he *bought* the future. He needed in excess of 97 to clear. His temporary profit was the excessive premium and he was NEVER in the Black. He just "thought" he was (as much as such a person can "think".) He is a good demonstration of why the Commodity regulatory people and the SEC doesn't like unskilled people "playing the market".

Saudi is telling the world of speculators, "we told you in March what the price is going to be and you don't seem to want to listen". The Saudi numbers are not picked from "out of the air". To be blunt: THEY do not. And they have the money to manipulate the markets to their will. You may assume they were shorting all over the board before the announcement over the weekend. They are not "constrained" by such things as the Comm. Reg. bodies and the SEC. They simply buy and sell in their London or European offices.

And remember, every thing.......THEY SHORT.........they can DELIVER!!!! That is why the "inverted market" tells you something.

The only thing that might slow the slide in futures is that the open interest was going down so the "Margin Calls" may not be as high. The "calls" ride off the futures. If he is lucky, he will be able to buy a frame for the transaction record as a reminder not to assume he knows one thing more than what OPEC was up to. 100% loss is a suitable price to pay for a lesson that should have cost him zip. He could have "paper traded" and while his gain would have been zero so also would be his coming loss.

What part of "we want the price to be no higher than $25 U$" did anyone not understand. The inverted market told you this was a "spot shortage" and what did "Sgt." do? He bought an intermediate call. Then he insulted everyone's intelligence by announcing his "loss would be limited". Of course it was: 100% lost when the call expires unexercized.

This is a typical "investor" error. The stupidity involved was thinking an outsider could defy what OPEC had clearly announed. They wanted OIL in a price range that would max. their profits but NOT SLOW DEMAND. They pay "Economist" millions and millions of dollars to determine proper pricing.

OPEC hardly cares about "input" from online extremists and "Chatters" on the net. Their sheer buying and selling power is the Elephant to their dung beetle.

-- cpr (, July 07, 2000.

Silicon Valley Regular gas up another $.04 from last week to $1.83.

-- Gas Man (gman@gass.for.less), July 07, 2000.

And the average selling price for a single family home in Silicon Valley is over $600,000. GOT A POINT?

-- cpr (, July 07, 2000.

Yes, oh omnipotent one. A simple one. Why does gas keep going up when you keep saying it is going down?

-- Gas Man (gman@gass.for.less), July 09, 2000.

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