Gas news and brain damagegreenspun.com : LUSENET : TB2K spinoff uncensored : One Thread
Date: Tue May 23, 2000 4:10pm Subject: Re: Gas news and brain damage
My son-in-law gave a presentation on my behalf at this meeting, where he encountered
Tom Ahlbrandt of the US Geological Survey - who explained their new study. In this connection it is interesting to note that the 724 billion barrels they pretend is yet-to-find is supposed to be discovered in the period 1995-2025 (the period of their assessment). It means that they are already running 100 billion barrels short of the necessary average discovery to meet their target, and have no hope of catching up. It is utterly implausible suggesting that this USGS study has a hidden political agenda.
M. Lynch, the flat-earth economist, repeated his eternal quips about unfulfilled past forecasts without bothering to explain or understand why they proved wrong, from which something might have been learnt about how to improve future forecasts. Often these earlier forecasts are misinterpreted by ignorant people. For example the Club of Rome spoke of "remaining reserves" which was wrongly interpreted to include the yet-to-find. In fact the Club of Rome did consider a scenario that the Ultimate recovery would be five times the then reported reserves, which is about right.
Matt Symmonds - an investment banker, gave an excellent presentation explaining the depletion of oil from his standpoint
Davies of BP says that falling costs are overwhelming depletion. In other words he can still make money although oil production is set to fall. (Personally, I was not aware that drilling in the deep ocean, which is where much of what remains to find lies, was either cheap or getting cheaper) This is obfuscation at its best
Jaffe, who belongs to this same think tank, wrote that absurd article in Foreign Affairs about how oil prices were set to remain low in perpetuity, how the US had no need for OPEC oil, because the ample amounts in the Western Hemisphere (at unidentified places) while at the same time hinting about the possibility of US miliatry intervention in the Persian Gulf.
There must be some kind of benefit that accrues to "experts" who tell people what they want to hear. One is reminided of the Titanic as is steamed at full speed in a fog through an ice-berg belt (having removed binoculars from the lookouts) while the band played, because of the claims that the ship was unsinkable.
best regards Colin Campbell
-- Cave Man (firstname.lastname@example.org), June 29, 2000