The One Task Left: Never to forget who led people astray and why.greenspun.com : LUSENET : TB2K spinoff uncensored : One Thread |
THE HARD FACTS (MITCH RATCLIFFE 1/3/2000)
Ed Yourdon, at least, has preserved his published record intact. Yet, he refuses to admit he was wrong.
We have just one task before us: Never to forget who led people astray and why. These opportunists, many of whom have made themselves rich with Y2K panic-mongering, are trying to rewrite history before our eyes. Don't let them do it.
===================================================== The hard facts
By Mitch Ratcliffe, ZDY2K
January 3, 2000 6:33 AM PT
URL: http://www.zdnet.com/enterprise/stories/zdy2k/ news/0,6158,2415908,00.htmlWhy didn't it happen? See my column of Thursday to understand why Y2K wasn't a hoax, and why there are a lot of people who deserve thanks.
There's not much more to say, when I called Y2K almost to a tee:
No one died as a result of Y2K problems;
Power stayed on, despite widely dispersed and localized problems with computers;
Embedded systems did not fail on a large scale, and those that did were non-critical;
If anything, less developed countries proved they are less reliant on technology and, so, avoided many problems that would have occurred in the U.S. if Americans had ignored Y2K;
Critical infrastructures operated normally, despite problems (at this writing, the FAA's few problems have not resulted in a threat to public safety, nor have any of the markets around the world that are open, including the Chicago Mercantile Exchange and Chicago Board of Trade, experienced any major problems).
After all the abuse and threats ladled out toward me and my family for the past 18 months, let me just take one moment to gloat.
Gloat.
There was a moment on Saturday that brought the whole Y2K situation into crystal clarity, when Cathy Hotka of the National Retail Federation was asked by the press whether survivalists could return supplies they hadn't used.
"Retailers are in the business of selling things and not lending them," she said, with remarkable credulity, considering how foolish the question sounded.
In a nutshell, the Y2K problem has proved a non-event because business (and government) stuck to their strengths: business as usual, with a note of urgency in IT efforts. Overall, the two percent to seven percent of IT budgets dedicated to Y2K repairs by corporations and government agencies was a responsible and rational response.
The cost shouldered by large organizations was much larger, as percentage of revenue, than what a household should have spent, because each company shouldered a small part of the expense of removing risk from their customers' lives. Now that the danger has passed, the survivalist who did over-spend has to live with the mistake while the rest of us will benefit from having calculated correctly. A little preparation went a long way.
This is not a paean to the beauty of capitalism, just to good sense. As an investor, you take risks. As a human being, you take risks. Some folks over-react to risk and some thrive.
From the very beginning of this Y2K odyssey, especially since I became convinced there was no reason to fear an apocalyptic failure or anything approaching that, I've been enraged by the opportunists who have exaggerated the risks of Y2K for their own profit.
Now that the realities of Y2K are plain - I needn't rehash them here, other than to point to these stories I did for United Press International - we need to be sure to call to account those who abused so many people, costing them hundreds or thousands of dollars.
First, the stories about the Y2K rollover:
When Will Y2K Actually Strike?
Networks Pass Biggest Test; Europe Joins The Party
Y2K still silent as business begins around the world
Y2K survivalists struggle with reality
What is especially troubling is that the doomer prophets who led people astray are already in the midst of reinventing themselves.
Gary North's Web site has been altered, and many of the loonier statements he made there disappeared almost immediately after the rollover. North claims his site has been hacked, but the "damage" doesn't make sense - why would hackers wait until after the New Year and then remove only part of the content on the site? Fortunately, there are people with accurate back-ups of the North site to preserve the record.
Mike Adams, who has threatened to sue me again for my recent article, has morphed Y2KNewswire from a pessimistic site to an optimistic one overnight. Where one day there were assertions of Y2K cover-ups, the next day there were a whole slew of stories about how Y2K has been beaten. The whole Y2KNewswire archive of links, in which Adams inserted preposterous interpretations of stories in the mainstream press have vanished.
Why?
Because Adams has a new site that will help people reinvent their lives - ironically, he's suggesting that life will be rebuilt using technology. What disingenuous crap.
Ed Yourdon, at least, has preserved his published record intact. Yet, he refuses to admit he was wrong.
We have just one task before us: Never to forget who led people astray and why. These opportunists, many of whom have made themselves rich with Y2K panic-mongering, are trying to rewrite history before our eyes. Don't let them do it.
-- cpr (buytexas@swbell.net), June 21, 2000
Yawn.
-- Carlos (riffraff@cybertime.net), June 21, 2000.
CPR, Get a life! You are boaring and wasting Band Width.I bet your family really loves living with you always saying "I told you so".
Get over it, move on!
-- The Whole (Group@Greenspun.com), June 21, 2000.
READ IT AGAIN, LET IT SINK IN
he One Task Left: Never to forget who led people astray and why.
greenspun.com : LUSENET : TB2K spinoff uncensored : One Thread
THE HARD FACTS (MITCH RATCLIFFE 1/3/2000)
Ed Yourdon, at least, has preserved his published record intact. Yet, he refuses to admit he was wrong.
We have just one task before us: Never to forget who led people astray and why. These opportunists, many of whom have made themselves rich with Y2K panic-mongering, are trying to rewrite history before our eyes. Don't let them do it.
===================================================== The hard facts
By Mitch Ratcliffe, ZDY2K
January 3, 2000 6:33 AM PT
URL: http://www.zdnet.com/enterprise/stories/zdy2k/ news/0,6158,2415908,00.htmlWhy didn't it happen? See my column of Thursday to understand why Y2K wasn't a hoax, and why there are a lot of people who deserve thanks.
There's not much more to say, when I called Y2K almost to a tee:
No one died as a result of Y2K problems;
Power stayed on, despite widely dispersed and localized problems with computers;
Embedded systems did not fail on a large scale, and those that did were non-critical;
If anything, less developed countries proved they are less reliant on technology and, so, avoided many problems that would have occurred in the U.S. if Americans had ignored Y2K;
Critical infrastructures operated normally, despite problems (at this writing, the FAA's few problems have not resulted in a threat to public safety, nor have any of the markets around the world that are open, including the Chicago Mercantile Exchange and Chicago Board of Trade, experienced any major problems).
After all the abuse and threats ladled out toward me and my family for the past 18 months, let me just take one moment to gloat.
Gloat.
There was a moment on Saturday that brought the whole Y2K situation into crystal clarity, when Cathy Hotka of the National Retail Federation was asked by the press whether survivalists could return supplies they hadn't used.
"Retailers are in the business of selling things and not lending them," she said, with remarkable credulity, considering how foolish the question sounded.
In a nutshell, the Y2K problem has proved a non-event because business (and government) stuck to their strengths: business as usual, with a note of urgency in IT efforts. Overall, the two percent to seven percent of IT budgets dedicated to Y2K repairs by corporations and government agencies was a responsible and rational response.
The cost shouldered by large organizations was much larger, as percentage of revenue, than what a household should have spent, because each company shouldered a small part of the expense of removing risk from their customers' lives. Now that the danger has passed, the survivalist who did over- spend has to live with the mistake while the rest of us will benefit from having calculated correctly. A little preparation went a long way.
This is not a paean to the beauty of capitalism, just to good sense. As an investor, you take risks. As a human being, you take risks. Some folks over-react to risk and some thrive.
From the very beginning of this Y2K odyssey, especially since I became convinced there was no reason to fear an apocalyptic failure or anything approaching that, I've been enraged by the opportunists who have exaggerated the risks of Y2K for their own profit.
Now that the realities of Y2K are plain - I needn't rehash them here, other than to point to these stories I did for United Press International - we need to be sure to call to account those who abused so many people, costing them hundreds or thousands of dollars.
First, the stories about the Y2K rollover:
When Will Y2K Actually Strike?
Networks Pass Biggest Test; Europe Joins The Party
Y2K still silent as business begins around the world
Y2K survivalists struggle with reality
What is especially troubling is that the doomer prophets who led people astray are already in the midst of reinventing themselves.
Gary North's Web site has been altered, and many of the loonier statements he made there disappeared almost immediately after the rollover. North claims his site has been hacked, but the "damage" doesn't make sense - why would hackers wait until after the New Year and then remove only part of the content on the site? Fortunately, there are people with accurate back-ups of the North site to preserve the record.
Mike Adams, who has threatened to sue me again for my recent article, has morphed Y2KNewswire from a pessimistic site to an optimistic one overnight. Where one day there were assertions of Y2K cover-ups, the next day there were a whole slew of stories about how Y2K has been beaten. The whole Y2KNewswire archive of links, in which Adams inserted preposterous interpretations of stories in the mainstream press have vanished.
Why?
Because Adams has a new site that will help people reinvent their lives - ironically, he's suggesting that life will be rebuilt using technology. What disingenuous crap.
Ed Yourdon, at least, has preserved his published record intact. Yet, he refuses to admit he was wrong.
We have just one task before us: Never to forget who led people astray and why. These opportunists, many of whom have made themselves rich with Y2K panic-mongering, are trying to rewrite history before our eyes. Don't let them do it.
-- cpr (buytexas@swbell.net), June 21, 2000Answers
-- cpr (buytexas@swbell.net), June 21, 2000.
Ceeper, you are the most cowardly, ignorant, annoying, spineless, lying, pathetic, worthless piece of crap troll I have ever observed on the entire Internet, or in the entire world for that matter.Go look in the mirror and puke your stinking guts out at the disgusting sight of yourself, as you instinctively should if you have even a shred of heart, soul, conscience, or simple human decency left within you.
-- (CEEPER@IS.SHIT), June 21, 2000.
I have only one question to ask you Charlie...WHEN/if ever will you decide that folks make their OWN decisions?Anyone who read about North realized that he'd been in the fear business for over 20 years. I feel confident that he covered his tracks after each prophesy failed to come true. The others mentioned by Mitch were simply clones of North.
We've already discussed this, but I'll mention it again. There will ALWAYS be folks who WANT society to end. They will ALWAYS be drawn to these people. If they're not resourceful enough to investigate what these folks have said before, why should *I* be their policeman? They're hearing what they WANT to hear. Folks will ALWAYS seek out those who preach what they WANT to hear. The Jim Jones' cult sought words that they WANTED to hear.
Since this phenomenon has been ongoing throughout centuries, I must question why you've singled out Y2k as the one that sticks in your craw. I'd ask the same of Andy Ray.
There have ALWAYS been snake-oil salesmen. There will ALWAYS BE snake-oil salesmen. There will always be folks who will purchase snake-oil. Do you intend to pursue this Y2k snake-oil for the rest of your life, will you move on to the NEXT hoax, or will you eventually decide that there's not a helluva lot you can do to protect folks from snake-oil salesmen that WANT to believe them?
-- Anita (Anita_S3@hotmail.com), June 21, 2000.
Slow day at work, Charlie?
-- I'm Here, I'm There (I'm Everywhere@so.beware), June 21, 2000.
As long as we're going to be remembering who led whom astray, let's not forget the "commodities expert" who told us that oil prices were going to CRASH SOON! in January. Let's see, who was that? Oh yes, it was ... CPR!
-- Sergeant Friday (just.the@facts.maam), June 21, 2000.
It is good not to forget the past and the lessons it taught. But it is not good to wallow in it like a drunken pig.
-- suuuuuweeeeeeee (oink@oinksnort.com), June 21, 2000.
There's only one thing more sad to watch than a sore loser, and that's a sore winner. Charlie, it's too bad that you and Andy Ray are doing what you're doing. Posting these long diatribes that nobody will ever read makes you look quite pathetic. And AR, picking out such silly anonymous quotes, when there's so much ripe material to choose from -- well, sorry to tell you guys, but, you're both really coming off as a couple of goofballs. Goofier than most of the doomers ever did.
-- (sad@nd.pathetic), June 21, 2000.
The main difference is, the sore losers don't even dare use the same fake names and addresses they used last year, and they attack others when they're wrong rather than learning from their mistakes.I don't see anything wrong with pointing out snake oil salesmen - especially when they're still selling it, changing only the label. And I'm amused that the exact same people continue to fall for it, for the exact same reasons. As we see illustrated here.
-- Flint (flintc@mindspring.com), June 21, 2000.
the sore losers ... attack others when they're wrong rather than learning from their mistakes.You mean like CPR's "oil price CRASH SOON!" mistake? Maybe if he would admit he was wrong rather than attacking others, people would be more willing to listen to what else he had to say. Then again, maybe not, since it rarely makes any sense anyway.
-- Sergeant Friday (just.the@facts.maam), June 21, 2000.
Sergeant Friday:I notice you conveniently omit the part about the brand new fake names and addresses. So tell us, what fake name and address did you use last year. Oh, by the way, Charlie uses his real name and address, always has. I can understand oil price fluctuation, and the difficulties of predicting it.
-- Flint (flintc@mindspring.com), June 21, 2000.
Oh, by the way, Charlie uses his real name and address, always has.No, he doesn't "always". In addition to his real name, he uses a number of aliases, including "mystery guest" and a lot of others I can't recall right now. Ask the moderator if you don't believe me.
I can understand oil price fluctuation, and the difficulties of predicting it.
So can I. That's not the question. The question is why he continues to insist that he is right when it is obvious to everyone that he is wrong. My hypothesis is that he is congenitally unable to admit being wrong about anything. But it's only a hypothesis. The facts, however, are beyond dispute: he still claims he's right, even though it's obvious that is wrong.
-- Sergeant Friday (just.the@facts.maam), June 21, 2000.
Let my voice be heard, at the bottom of the food chain. I stocked food and water, mucho food and water. My (grown) kids have service jobs, which means they travel (gasoline) in order to make a living. Gas prices have risen beyond comprehesion, to those who have much mula, those who do not have so much, this is a big deal. Something has to suffer, at the unexpected cost of this gasoline devil. My kids use a lot of gasoline in their jobs, to get from point A to B. I stuffed groceries. Call me stupid, or a Mother. I invited the kids over to partake of the Y2K aftermath and they Thanked me,(rotten kids) when the utilities (blessed) continue to flow. I take my stance.
-- My Story (andi@stickingtoit.com), June 21, 2000.
A lot of people were wrong about Y2K, but CPR and Andy Ray like to go after easy targets like Internet message groups. The corporate world and government made preparations of their own for Y2K, but CPR for some reason chooses to overlook what they said and what they did.http://hv.greenspun.com/bboard/q-and-a-fetch-msg.tcl?msg_id=003HP6
Quotably Quoted #?? - I.B.M. and the Red Cross
-- (history@of.Y2K), June 22, 2000.
Anita,,,,It was not "just" about Y2k, are u capable of being OPEN to getting this???? Try listening for a change and just ponder that what the marine is opposing is a domestic threat, K? North was obvious, is Heller as obvious? Is EddieY the Lefty, and Steve-o the Libertarian's marriage just a bit bizarre to you? You don't actually think these two really believed their Y2k dribble, do you? These are extremists, agenda folks who just want you TO SOAK-IT-UP is all. Join the Revolution, viva revolution! North does his like a lapdance, the meme- filled wackos who are convinced they know better are the dangerous ones. The prayer in soup folks.
Look past the Y2k stuff, this is afterall a post Y2k board. Dig deeper..Ask yourself what is it that really makes a Steve Heller tick. Beyond his clinical insanity, what is his deal? What does Steve want to see? Look to his treatment of Cherri for your clue to a woman's place in a Steve-o world. Readabout where Steve-O gained the ability to, not only blow Y2k prognosticating completely, but redefine the word in-your-face-dimshits. Where he learned what he calls "live the life of the mind", great line BTW.
Nobody cares? Well some beyond these dumbass webboards ran with the Y2k CRAP now didn't they, and boy did they(see the post right above here). Ask Steve if he feels at all responsible for playing a part in creating what we all know now, was a Y2k CIRCUS requiring huge sums to counter the jibber of the Heller 15 minutes. Where is his responsibility?? Is his actions typical of these Libertarians? He obviously ignored Harry Browne, duh. Snake-oil required FEDERAL mobilization? way beyond that Anita.
And it be a bunch of nobodies who frequent the World Net Daily's of this world for their daily Destroy this Republic to Save-it meme-feeding pile of crapola. Or tune-in daily for their CFR reports from the always sensible Bush Bimbo on the radio.
So before you go spouting, may want to ponder a tad deeper.
-- 456 (123@abc.con), June 22, 2000.
and for (history@of.Y2K)Hey Bud, this is why guys like these snake-oil salesman of Y2k are dangerous, they get listened to if enough of us types remain silent, or worse, asleep and "overlook" it since it looks like it be over now (Y2k thingee that is). Be EVER VIGILANT.....these spores grow when enough are in the dark? make sense? terrific...have a great day!
Course to get the above, you have to get past that Y2k actually mattered and all. Course with not a shred of evidence it did to anybody beyond Citibank, you still think it at least "might have" somehow. Well OK, but if you can ever bring yourself to the truth it was a major yanker, maybe you too can figure-out what the real deal is behind all the Y2k hoopla, and maybe become a little upset that some pretty pathetic people want to redo your country into some Happy Days/Stepford Wife mini-series.
-- Anson Williams (pancakes@syrup.web), June 22, 2000.
It was not "just" about Y2k, are u capable of being OPEN to getting this???? Try listening for a change and just ponder that what the marine is opposing is a domestic threat, K?Doc Paulie's explanation for why he and cpr prepared for and continue to prepare for the coming of extremists. I'm curious about what their political beliefs were before y2k ever became an issue.
-- My Full Name (e@mail.addy), June 22, 2000.
Here is something far more curious....Was Steve Heller once a Cheryl?Not that it matters, you understand, but curious...I like that word,,,curious hmmm. Kinda like why Steve felt the need to "play" with the link in the post just above after I posted it...curious. Not that it matters,,,just curious Steve felt some need to take it offline as it were. Might be back later, who knows, curious.
-- 456 (123@abc.con), June 22, 2000.
AnitaApologies for butting in here. But reading your response to Charles above left me with my own questions.
Such as, just why did you bother with Y2k for the past few years? If there will always be snake-oil salesmen, and people always make up their own minds, and countering their BS and holding them accountable is not worthwhile, why did you spend your time as you have?
Just a guess, but you may have felt it important to counteract some the bullsh*t that was being spewed. Another guess is you may have even got angry at those spewing.
Yes, looking back with hindsight, I can see how pathetic the fear- mongerers appeared, and question why I spent the time I did. But that definitely was not the case a year ago, at least from my perspective.
Anyway, just my two cents. Later, y'all.
Ted
-- Hoff (hoff_meister@my-deja.com), June 22, 2000.
Here is something far more curious....Was Steve Heller once a Cheryl? Shimer College class of 1971 Not that it matters, you understand, but curious...I like that word,,,curious hmmm.I guess it's too much for you to be able to read that page correctly. First of all, it is a list of "lost alums", which doesn't include me, as I am in the directory (and on their mailing list). Second, Cheryl's last name is spelled "Hellner", not "Heller". I hope I've cleared up any confusion.
Kinda like why Steve felt the need to "play" with the link in the post just above after I posted it...curious. Not that it matters,,,just curious Steve felt some need to take it offline as it were. Might be back later, who knows, curious. -- 456 (123@abc.con), June 22, 2000.I haven't done anything with that link. It was still there when I checked it this morning. Perhaps my Web hosting service wasn't working when you tried to click on it. That happens sometimes, you know.
-- Steve Heller (steve@SteveHeller.com), June 22, 2000.
Ted:I got involved in the Y2k discussion on a technology forum. It was interesting to trace the misinformation back to the source. Most folks discounted the misinformation once they learned the background of the source. In fact, most folks discounted FUTURE misinformation having been misled the first time. As you may recall, my input into discussions was pretty much limited to large systems. I could easily dispute some of the stuff Cory spewed by simply reviewing IBM manuals.
Via the internet, I "talked" with folks who had already fallen for the prophecies of folks like Howard Ruff in the 70's. They bought gold or silver, etc. and still had it...little mementos of where they'd gone astray. They weren't falling for the Y2k hype. They'd learned from their mistake and moved on. Most folks do this.
When I look at the extremely small percentage of the population that was led astray by the folks mentioned here, I compare numbers with the folks who are led astray every day by SOME con artist. My elderly mom gets goofy ideas just from watching T.V. shows like Geraldo. At least Geraldo is a name with which most folks are familiar. Take a poll in your neighborhood and ask if anyone has ever heard of Mike Adams, Steve Heller, Ed Yourdon, Gary North, or any of the other Y2k players. I doubt you'd find ONE.
There will always be fringe groups. There have always BEEN fringe groups. Some folks will always be attracted to the philosophies of these groups. Media attention will be drawn to them when they go too far.
That's MY opinion on all this.
-- Anita (Anita_S3@hotmail.com), June 22, 2000.
Anita:Sorry, but number comparisons just don't cut it in my book. The fact that Geraldo or whomever (whoever??) has misled many more does not in any way excuse the actions of the Y2k fear-mongerers.
I'm obviously no professional "debunker". As was brought up far too many times here in the past, I don't spend my time arguing and debunking the ideas of other "fringe" groups. The reason, however, is not that it shouldn't be done, but that I have neither the expertise nor the motivation to do so.
No, I don't run around tilting at windmills constantly. But Y2k was in large part an area within my expertise, and in my opinion at the time the fear-mongering was sufficiently dangerous to expend some effort. Again, with hindsight the "danger" from the fear-mongering seems almost laughable. But it didn't feel that way a year ago.
-- Hoff (hoff_meister@my-deja.com), June 22, 2000.
Off (out of practice)
-- Hoff (hoff_meister@my-deja.com), June 22, 2000.
http://hv.greenspun.com/bboard/q-and-a-fetch-msg.tcl?msg_id=003FbU"Never Again. We will never forget. Never Again."
How cpr really feels about this.
-- (anon2@anon2.anon2), June 22, 2000.
I think we basically agree. I don't think I was stating that fear mongers should be EXCUSED, but I did want to point out that there will always be people gullible enough to believe there's a reason for fear. I made the acquaintance of a couple on the MSNBC forum who feared Y2k. They had quite a FEW fears, actually. In fact, I'd go so far as to say they fell for every hoax that came their way. They'd E-mail me about 3 times a week with various nonsense articles they'd read on the web. I'd patiently respond with proof that each article was false. They just wanted to look out for my welfare, but after about 5 weeks of this, I filtered their E-mail. They weren't learning anything. If they get bitten by a hoax, they'll learn something.How's your brother, BTW? I seem to recall you got into Y2k due to his fears.
-- Anita (Anita_S3@hotmail.com), June 22, 2000.