CME Will Impact Earth - Thursday 06/08/2000greenspun.com : LUSENET : TB2K spinoff uncensored : One Thread
From: Cary Oler
Subject: AstroAlert: Middle Latitude Auroral Activity WARNING - 08-09 June Date: Wed, 7 Jun 2000 02:18:17 -0600 (MDT)
A s t r o A l e r t Sun-Earth Alert
Solar Terrestrial Dispatch http://www.spacew.com
Valid: 08 and 09 June 2000
* Middle Latitude Auroral Activity WARNING * * Low Latitude Auroral Activity WATCH *
A potentially significant solar coronal mass ejection is currently in-transit toward the Earth. Impact of this disturbance is expected during the mid to late UTC hours of 08 June. Its arrival is expected to herald an intensification of auroral activity. Minor to major auroral storming may be observed over possible widespread middle (and possibly some dark-sky low) latitude locations on the evenings of 08 and/or 09 June. Heaviest emphasis is currently placed on 09 June, although this will depend to a large extent on precisely _when_ the disturbance impacts.
There is no question that this disturbance will impact the Earth. The question is how intense the resulting auroral activity might become. This is a question which ultimately will not be answerable until after the disturbance reaches the vicinity of the Earth where spacecraft can probe the interior of the disturbance upstream of the Earth. From that information, we will be able to determine much more accurately how the disturbance should progress.
We have appended below the official release of the middle latitude auroral activity warning, which includes roughly estimated boundaries for observing activity. However, keep in mind that these are estimates only based on anticipated peak auroral storm levels. Whether your local region experiences peak storm conditions depends in a large measure on factors beyond anyones control (timing of arrival, dimensions of the disturbance impacting the Earth, characteristics of the solar wind within the disturbance, and much more).
This is a potentially significant disturbance and should be treated seriously by those who would like to observe auroral activity. Plan your most intensive observing sessions after the moon sets and prior to local twilight conditions (but don't necessarily limit your observations to those times or you may miss the most intense phases of activity). For this event, the moon will set between 2 and 3 am local time, providing optimally dark skies in the hour or two prior to moonset and for the next few hours prior to sunrise.
Avoid city lights. Get away to a rural location where city or other lights minimally pollute the northern horizon of the sky (or southern horizon if you live in the southern hemisphere).
Take along a camera with a tripod. During your observing session, take a few extended duration exposures of the horizon, even if you don't see anything with your eyes. You may be surprised what shows up on film.
Binoculars or a small telescope may help, if for no other reason than to help pass the time while waiting for auroral storming to produce bursts of visible activity.
Before you go out, check the Internet for possible signs of activity. Ground-based reports from other individuals around the world are available at: http://www.spacew.com/www/auroras.html. Reports of auroral activity there can provide you with information on the latitudinal extent of auroral activity visibility. Current auroral activity information can also be obtained at: http://www.spacew.com/www/aurora.html. Other sites of interest include the Canadian Space Agency's near-realtime aurora plot at: http://www.dan.sp-agency.ca/www/globe/rtoval.htm, their photometric plots at: http://www.sp-agency.ca/www_forms/rt_mpa.htm, and their all-sky imager at: http://www.sp-agency.ca/www_forms/rt_asi.htm.
Other useful sites include the Geophysical Institute at the University of Fairbanks Alaska (www.gi.alaska.edu) and Mark Hauns automatic aurora monitors (http://angwin.csl.uiuc.edu/~haunma/aurora). There is also handy software available that will provide you with near-realtime notification of auroral activity, based on current solar wind conditions (see: http://www.spacew.com/www/geolert.html or for SEROIUS observers: http://www.spacew.com/swarm).
PLEASE report any sightings of activity you make (whether immediately or several days after the event) to: http://www.spacew.com/www/subaurora.html so we can maintain a permanent archive of world-wide ground-based sightings for future study and reference.
The official middle latitude auroral activity warning, issued at 07:05 UTC on 07 June is included below:
VALID BEGINNING AT: 12:00 UTC 08 JUNE VALID UNTIL: 19:00 UTC ON 10 JUNE
HIGH RISK PERIOD: 08 - 09 JUNE (UTC DAYS) MODERATE RISK PERIOD: 08 - 10 JUNE
PREDICTED ACTIVITY INDICES: 12, 35, 60, 30 (07 JUNE - 10 JUNE)
POTENTIAL MAGNITUDE OF MIDDLE LATITUDE AURORAL ACTIVITY: MODERATE TO HIGH
POTENTIAL DURATION OF THIS ACTIVITY: MAIN BELT = 12 TO 18 HOURS MINOR BELT = 24 TO 36 HOURS
ESTIMATED OPTIMUM OBSERVING CONDITIONS: AFTER APPROX. 2 AM LOCAL TIME
EXPECTED LUNAR INTERFERENCE: LOW-MODERATE, BECOMING NIL AFTER 2-3 AM LOCAL
OVERALL OPPORTUNITY FOR OBSERVATIONS FROM MIDDLE LATITUDES: GOOD
AURORAL ACTIVITY *MAY* BE OBSERVED APPROXIMATELY NORTH OF A LINE FROM...
NORTHERN CALIFORNIA TO NORTHERN NEVADA TO UTAH TO COLORADO TO NORTHERN KANSAS TO MISSOURI TO KENTUCKY TO VIRGINIA.
ACTIVITY *MAY* ALSO BE OBSERVED APPROXIMATELY NORTH OF A LINE FROM...
NORTHERN FRANCE AND POSSIBLY EXTREME NORTHERN REGIONS OF SPAIN TO SOUTHERN GERMANY TO SOUTHERN POLAND TO SOUTHERN UKRAINE TO CENTRAL RUSSIA. SOUTHERN REGIONS OF AUSTRALIA AND MOST OF NEW ZEALAND MAY ALSO SPOT POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT ACTIVITY.
RECEIVE REAL-TIME AURORAL ACTIVITY WATCHES AND WARNINGS BASED ON REAL-TIME SOLAR WIND CONDITIONS USING THE SOFTWARE AT:
A significant solar coronal mass ejection associated with a powerful X-class solar flare was observed today leaving the Sun on a trajectory toward the Earth. This disturbance has the potential to produce periods of significant and intense auroral activity over widespread middle and possibly some low latitude regions. The conservative forecast calls generally for minor auroral storming with occasional major substorm intervals capable of being observed throughout the upper-middle latitude regions. However, there is a fair to good chance that activity will reach occasional stronger levels capable of being observed across much wider central middle and upper-low latitude regions during the height of the activity, particularly if observations are made just after the moon sets (between 2 and 3 am local time) and prior to the start of morning twilight conditions.
This is a potentially significant auroral storm prediction. Observers wishing to observe activity should take this event seriously. The peak of the storm activity is expected to occur on 09 June, although significant levels of activity may occur somewhat earlier if the disturbance is travelling faster than anticipated. Although the true intensity of activity won't be known until after the disturbance arrives (no one knows the intensity or configuration of the magnetic fields present in the disturbance until after spacecraft sample the solar wind within the disturbance - and that won't happen until the disturbance arrives).
Observers may want to plan excursions to dark-sky sites on the evenings of June 08 and June 09. If no activity is observed on the first night, perhaps something will be seen the following night. Long-exposure photographs of the horizon may also reveal activity invisible to the eye after the disturbance arrives. Serious observers may want to spend the $25 USD to purchase Ge+lert, which provides early notification of potential levels of auroral activity as well as current lists of ground-based sightings. The software is available at: http://www.spacew.com/www/geolert.html. FAX orders (MC/VISA) to: +1-403-756-3008 or: +1-403-756-2380 for rapid Internet delivery.
There is a fairly high probability for additional powerful solar flares from the active sunspot group currently on the Sun over the next several days. The occurrence of additional major levels of solar activity could herald additional coronal mass ejections capable of impacting the Earth.
This warning will remain active until 19:00 UTC on 10 June. It will then either be updated or allowed to expire.
PLEASE REPORT OBSERVATIONS OF AURORAL ACTIVITY TO: http://solar.spacew.com/www/auroras.html
ESTIMATED AURORAL VISIBILITY FROM THE GROUND, AS WELL AS SPACECRAFT AURORAL IMAGERY AND STATISTICAL PLOTS OF ANTICIPATED ACTIVITY CAN BE FOUND AT:
** End of AstroAlert **
-- Dr. Doom (DD@sci-tek.con), June 07, 2000
I guess I need to put my tinfoil hat beside the bug-out bag.
-- Swampthing (email@example.com), June 07, 2000.
Good thing I've got my beans and rice.
-- (firstname.lastname@example.org), June 07, 2000.
Welcome back Yar. Whatever happened to the earth being torn apart by gravitational forces on May 5? Is this your latest "FUD" venture?
-- Yar not "yar" (email@example.com?), June 07, 2000.
Wednesday June 7 1:02 PM ET
Major Solar Storm Detected
By JOSEPH B. VERRENGIA, AP Science Writer
BOULDER, Colo.(AP) - Scientists have detected a major solar flare erupting on the sun that could buffet Earth with a geomagnetic storm in the next two days.
The blast of charged solar particles already is producing scattered radio blackouts but is not expected to significantly disrupt telecommunications or electrical power. It might generate a dramatic light show for midnight stargazers in the northern latitudes until early Saturday.
The sun is approaching the height of its 11-year storm cycle. Unlike previous cycles, this period has been relatively quiet, with eruptions every two months or so.
This storm is estimated to be 20 times stronger than a solar flare in early April.
``Finally, the sun is beginning to flex its muscles,'' said solar forecaster Dave Speich of the federal Space Environment Center in Boulder.
The latest eruption came at midday Tuesday from a cluster of sunspots on the upper left of the sun as viewed from Earth. A powerful X-ray flare ejected an estimated billion tons of charged particles into space.
Riding the solar wind at speeds up to 2 million mph, the particles should zap Earth's magnetic field late Thursday or early Friday. The sunspot cluster could be active another eight days.
Solar flares can create electrical disturbances that disrupt power supplies, telecommunications and signals that control pipelines and other systems. The particles can damage satellites and alter their orbits.
The storm is rated as moderate on the federal government's new space weather scale.
In 1989, a severe solar storm knocked out power stations serving Canada and the northeastern states, as well as an electrical transformer in New Jersey. Since then, power grid and satellite operators have taken steps to protect their systems.
The clouds of charged particles also produce the aurora borealis, or northern lights. Weather permitting, the light show from this storm could be visible as far south as Washington, D.C.
-- News (firstname.lastname@example.org), June 07, 2000.
I guess I better get out my wheat grinder, kerosene lamps and clean my S&W. There may be some looters out there wanting to take advantage of the collapse of infrastructure. What do y'all think? on a scale of 1 to 10 will it be an 8 or a 9? will it lead to the collapse of the U.S. Government? Will it cause a major recession or a 10 year deppresion? (I have already been in a 6 month personal deppression -- just kidding). Do you think the IRS will continue to function after the Aural disturbance hits tomorrow? Where is Paula Gordan when we really need her? Flint, please assure me that it will only be a 2 or 3 on the scale. Will the power grid completely collapse tomorrow or will we just experience dirty power and rolling brown-outs for awhile? Does anyone know how to get in touch with Cori Hamaski?
sorry folks, I just had to get that off my chest. I feel better now!
-- JoseMiami (email@example.com), June 08, 2000.