Oilcrisis Kazakhstan find may be largest in 20 years By David B. Ottaway The Washington Post WASHINGTON, May 16  A consortium of Western oil companies has found a vast petroleum reserve in the northern Caspian Sea off the coast of Kazakhstan that may well be the largest oil discovery anywhere in the world in the past 20 years, according to U.S. officials and industry sources.

If the 480-square-mile deposit, called the Kashagan field, proves to be anywhere near the higher estimate, it could surpass the size of the North Sea fields. WHILE EFFORTS to map out the confines of the vast field have just begun after nine months of drilling, initial estimates of its size range from 8 billion to more than 50 billion barrels of oil, the sources said. If the 480-square-mile deposit, called the Kashagan field, proves to be anywhere near the higher estimate, it could surpass the size of the North Sea fields. The last oil find of comparable size was in 1979, also in Kazakhstan, when it was part of the Soviet Union. That field, located onshore at Tengiz, is now being exploited by an international consortium led by the American oil company Chevron Corp.

"The Caspian is back on the map in a big way," said an administration official, who said the offshore Kazakh field may hold 32 billion barrels of oil "or maybe more."

Kazakhstan's prime minister, Qasymzhomart Toqaev, announced on May 10 that the consortium had found "big deposits of oil" but refused to speculate about the size.

-- r (r.1@juno.com), May 16, 2000

Answers

Link skills need improvement. :)

-- r (r.1@juno.com), May 16, 2000.

This is good news, right? This reduces the liklihood of an oil crisis the will topple western civilization, right?

This is bad news, right. This means we will continue to burn polluting fossil fuels and continue our moral decay that was born in the backseats of automobiles, right?

It is all so confusing, sometimes I don't know whether to shit or go blind.

-- (nemesis@awol.com), May 16, 2000.

Largest oil discovery in 20 years, 50 billion barrels or more. Just remember, the world burns 12 billion barrels of oil every six months. So the largest discovery in 20 years will keep the motors humming for two more years, max. You do the math.

-- Cash (cash@andcarry.com), May 16, 2000.

even if it were 50 billion barrels, the world demand is 77 million barrels PER DAY. so thats 649 days. Less than two years worth. It just means the end is a little farther away.

-- (End times coming@ your town. com), May 16, 2000.

I don't mind delaying THe End. And I'm so glad this has put the Caspian back on the map, although I was not aware it had dropped off. (Could it be that Americans are provincial enthnocentrics?)

-- Mara (MW@aol.com), May 16, 2000.

When you people keep saying "the end", what do you mean exactly? The end of oil available at roughly current prices? Or what?

-- Flint (flintc@mindspring.com), May 16, 2000.

I'm not sure what "the end" means either. I'm not using it. The decline, if the experts are right, will be as gradual as the rise. Gives us some time, I hope, and some wiggle room.

-- Cash (cash@andcarry.com), May 16, 2000.

Flint is correct. We need to plan for what will happen in 100 years. Too many of you folks read crap on the web and believe it.

-- Z1X4Y7 (Z1X4Y7@aol.com), May 16, 2000.

Folks,

This new reserve is not a two-year supply or even a 649-day supply of oil.

It's more like a seven-month supply for the world if the size estimate of "50 billion barrels" is correct, and might be only a _one_-month supply if it turns out to be at the lower end of the initial size estimates.

If you read all the way through the article, you'll find near the end, "The initial estimates of the size of the new offshore Kazakh field do not represent proven reserves  the amount of recoverable oil in the field  but instead the total amount of oil that might be in place there. Oil companies are currently able to recover between one-quarter to one-third of the oil in most fields, but the proportion varies with the price of oil and the techniques used."

One-third of 50 billion is 16-2/3 billion. 16-2/3 billion (recoverable) barrels divided by 77 million barrels (used) per day is about 216 days. (I'm assuming the 77 million barrel per day usage figure given by "End times coming". Cash's figure of 12 billion barrels used per siz months is a little less, about 66 million per day.)

If the new field's size is 8 billion instead of 50 billion, that's about 35 days' supply (at 77 million barrels per day) if the recoverable proportion remains one-third.

-- No Spam Please (nos_pam_please@hotmail.com), May 17, 2000.

Ummm, are you saying that we are now out of oil everywhere else and this is going to be used to keep us going for x amount of time?

There was the oil problem in the early 70's and everyone screamed for alternatives to be found, but as time when on it was accepted as normal (and detroit ignored the need for smaller cars). Then in the late 70's early 80's when gas jumped to a dollar a gallon people were alarmed again and we finally got some progress made in cutting down consuption and cars were made more fuel effecient. But slowly a new generations comes along and they are so used to the prices and the gas guzzlers take over again though they look different and are not restricted by the same laws as cars have been forced to follow so we have SUV's where the old station wagons used to be in every driveway that have never even seen "sport" (they even drive around bumps in the road-huh-so much for being off road vehecles). It is a good thing that gas prices are up-not for those who have to drive for a living, but for the families who have two or three SUV's in their garage to drive them 5 blocks to the nearest 7-11 for a bag of chips. It appears every generation has to be stricken with a 50% increase in gas prices to get them thinking about how much they are consuming.

And do you realise what made those things popular in the first place? O.J. Simson and his ride down that freeway. Think about it, how many people did you see driving around in one until it was drilled into everyones brain by the media? Most of what has been put out to feed the market for them are unsafe and cheaply made (except for the price tag). Bumpers are a joke today. Personally I want a car that will not contriute to maiming or killing my family and myself in an accident that 20 years ago would have left everyone unhurt.

You can damage a car made today by hitting it with your fist. But then the car makers know that and the cost of repairs keeps the factories going putting out replacement parts.

I prefer a car made out of metal with a real bumper that absorbes an impact, not one that falls apart when you look at it the wrong way.

So I say just let the gas prices go on up and people will go back to car pooling, alternative transportation and walking to the store and alternatives to fossel fuel will be developed.

-- Cherri (sams@brigadoon.com), May 17, 2000.

the world economy relies on oil not just for transportation (whether public or private) i think only a 1/3 of oil production goes into transport

I've been to Iran and the Caspian Sea area (they produce caviar by nurturing the sturgeon in fish farms then releasing them into the sea to mature, then catch them, the beaches are patrolled to prevent poaching, the soldiers are invited in to share dinner, got drunk while they go out fishing

caviar, pistachio nuts and oil are the only things produced by Iran

apart from the Pekyan (old brit car called the hillman hunter) or they did years ago

Iran is the worse country I've visited

-- richard (richard.dale@onion.com), May 17, 2000.