Quotably Quoted #6

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(Dateline 2047): Papers recently discovered in a cache long-hidden on the farm of the man known to Yourdonites as "BigDog" and to his family as "Hey, You" now reveal what actually happened during those fateful few years at the turn of the Millenium. Excerpts from the first of BigDog's "Y2K Reports" follow: Report One: September thru December, 1999

... By September, 1999, the hitherto subterranean shifting of supply chain partners by large Y2K-ready corporations began to intersect calls from governments around the world for their citizens to start preparing for Y2K. While capital continued, relatively, to flow towards the U.S., markets around the world began to crumble (many down 30-70% between then and the end of the year).

... October and November, 1999 saw the U.S. market begin to sag, not crashing, but leaking value. The Fed lowered rates aggressively and stabilized the Dow at 20% off its high for the year. The utility industry in the States promised that power would remain up in most places most of the time. This was not reassuring. Similar reports began coming in from other industries: promises of sustainability but at some unknown percentage of function below normal. Spot panic buying began to talk place.

In mid-November, Greenspan testified before Congress about the stability of the banks and urged calm. He said, "We have every expectation that the actual effects of Y2K will be moderate. It is vital that American citizens act with an eye on the future and avoid panic." Another small interest rate drop took place, with some minimal positive effect. A steady, but quiet cash out from the nation's banks began increasing weekly. .... By December 10, 1999, the Fed had exhausted its supply of cash. With two weeks to go before Christmas, Clinton addressed the nation and called a "temporary" bank holiday on cash withdrawals. A tremendous tug-of-war, which had begun in September, was now intensifying over the question as to whether Y2K was-is the problem or whether panic was-is the problem. Wall-to-wall TV coverage was largely calling this a "panic" problem and urging citizens to keep their money in the markets "for the good of the country." .... By December 21, 1999, panic buying at supermarkets in anticipation of Y2K uncertainty, coupled with the cash shortage and banking uncertainties, was clobbering the Christmas season. Economists were now predicting a 2000 "panic" recession of short duration, predicting that huge amounts of cash would flow back into the banks by February 1, 2000. The market dropped like a rock based on December events, including international ones below (15%) and then stabilized again as the Fed moved aggressively to pump extraordinary liquidity into the system. Ed Yardeni predicted that the Fed had now played its final useful card and that everything would depend on the resolution of Y2K itself after the turn of the year. .... On the international scene, with NATO troops bogged down in the Balkans, tensions over Y2K within countries were worsened throughout the fall by the year-long reduction in trust and communication. An outcry from Congressional Republicans thwarted an Administration attempt to take U.S. nukes off alert in December. The CIA was receiving intelligence that China (Taiwan), N, Korea (S. Korea) and Iraq (Saudi Arabia) were considering possible attacks around the 1/1/2000 timeframe. Intelligence about potential terrorist attacks to be launched on U.S. soil were also being collected.

Consequently, on December 15, 1999, Clinton ordered all U.S. embassies, troops and weapons put on ready alert. In addition, the press began "leaking" administration plans for National Guard troops to be available for helping civilian authorities keep order in the 50 largest American cities. More to come .......

-- BigDog (BigDog@duffer.com), April 19, 1999

Alas, the dashed hopes and dreams of a doomer...

Vindicated Regards,
Andy Ray



-- Andy Ray (andyman633@hotmail.com), May 12, 2000

Answers

What's this? 2 #6's?

-- ~ (~@~.~), May 12, 2000.

This must have been where one of the "rumors of doom" started. By early fall, many doomers were spouting the line that "Klinton was going to impose marshall law on December 15 - it's from a reliable source." Giggle. As if anything bighog ever said about anything could be described as "reliable".

-- Y2K Pro (y2kpro1@hotmail.com), May 12, 2000.

doom & gloom,makes for NEWS.NOBODY SEEMS INTERESTED IN good news, wuz- up.i guess we all like a scary movie huh? JESUS said''who amongst you'by WORRYING'can add a day to your life'' i,m taking his advise.==HE,S in control-i,m goin in the garden & groove on HIS creation.gotta get the new ponds set-up.

-- al-d (dogs@zianet.com), May 12, 2000.

The interesting part is that not one...and, I mean, not one...of his predictions actually came to pass. You'd think that by just chance, at least one of those things would have happened. But, from what I've seen over at EZBoard, the folks there think he is as credible at predicting the future as he ever was. Amazing!

-- Jim Cooke (JJCooke@yahoo.com), May 12, 2000.

Jim,

He probably *is* as credible as he ever was!

-- Flint (flintc@mindspring.com), May 12, 2000.



What did you do---spend all of 1999 saving obscure posts to an obscure Internet forum? And now you're going to spend all of the next 5 years re-posting them? If anyone ever needed a life, it's you.

-- (nemesis@awol.com), May 12, 2000.

Nemesis:

I don't think that Big Dog qualifies as an "obscure poster" since he was one of the movers and shakers at the old TB2000 although I agree it was a pretty obscure forum in the big picture.

I think it is actually instructive for people like me who weren't around during the heyday of the old TB2000 to see what was said by the leading lights and to be able to reflect on how they saw things. I also suspect that, if Y2K had turned out differently, we'd be treated to endless retrospectives of Flint, Hoff, et al polly posts and how wrong they were. I wonder if their egos would be as damaged as yours seems to be?

-- Jim Cooke (JJCooke@yahoo.com), May 12, 2000.


Pro,

Is marshall law named after General George C. Marshall, or Marshall Dillon?

-- Wonderin (about@lots.of.things), May 12, 2000.


Jim,

I said "obscure posts" not "obscure poster". I wasn't here much in 1999 but I'm aware that Big Dog was outspoken, obnoxiously so. But Andy Ray is equally obnoxious and he was last year too. Gag me on a meme.

My ego is not at risk here. Why do you think it would be?

To me, Andy Ray is just irritating and lugubrious.

-- (nemesis@awol.com), May 12, 2000.


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