World markets

-- Scrubbing Bubbles (@ .), April 16, 2000

Answers

Just in: Stock markets in New Zealand and Australia dead-on-arrival Monday morning.

THE NET NEWS >From Alan Farrelly April 17, 2000

AUSTRALIAN SHARES TUMBLE The Wellington Stock Exchange in New Zealand, the first to open in the Asia Pacific region after the Wall Street debacle, lost 97 points, or 4.7%, in the first 15 minutes of trading today. Tech stocks were the big losers, with falls in the 20% to 30% range not uncommon. The Australian market promptly crashed nearly 6% within a few minutes of the Sydney exchange opening this morning

IS THE WORST OVER? Charles Payne, head analyst at Wall Street Strategies, forecasts the Nasdaq sticking to a range between 3,000 and 3,700 in the days ahead. It fell every day last week, ending at 3,321.29, to post a 25.3% loss on the week, a record drop. Nasdaq's previous worse was the third week of October 1987, which began with Black Monday and ended with a 19.5% all. Important indicators coming this week are housing market figures on Tuesday, and February's trade balance figures on Wednesday. Quarterly earnings are also due from some big companies - IBM, Intel, Apple and Microsoft to name a few. See http://cnnfn.com/2000/04/16/markets/q_lookahead/

THE BUBBLE HAS BURST Salon quotes Anthony Perkins, chairman of Red Herring and co-author of the book "The Internet Bubble: What You Need to Know to Avoid the Coming Shakeout" published in November 1999, as aying: "Clearly, the bubble has burst. I think things will never be the same. A lot of the Internet companies that shouldn't have gone public have been found out and you won't see them go back up. A lot of people have lost a lot of money. It's going to scar people for a long time, and they're going to realize it's now back to fundamentals. It's back to rationality." See http://www.salon.com/tech/feature/2000/04/14/stocks/index.html

THE LONG VIEW Taking the long view in the Salon article above is Peter Leyden co-author of "The Long Boom," who thinks the Ciscos, Microsofts and the Intels are solid companies "totally worth their valuation given the long-term view of transitioning the global economy towards the new economy model." But hes looking years ahead.

Click to Subscribe: http://subscribe.news.com.au/form/ From: Alan Farrelly, News Interactive. Australia e-mail: farrelly@newscorp.com.au Search: http://www.newsclassifieds.com.au/cgi-bin/tools/findnews.cgi

-- Pin-Holder (pinholder@burstthebubble.com), April 16, 2000.

Should prove to be an interesting day .

Japan is currently down 1800 pts. Hong Kong is set to fall.

My question is where is the bottom--just like everyone else--lol.

My guess is Nasdaq 2100 and Dow 8500.

I have been out of the market since last fall like many on this forum and i am waiting to get back in.

Any other feedback with regard to the markets would be appreciated.

thanks

-- greg holmberg (drgah@earthlink.com), April 16, 2000.

As I noted in an earlier thread, I think both have to go much lower to return to historic growth rates. Dow 6-7,000, NASDAQ 1,800-2000. Anything higher will not resolve bubble/mania problem.

Todd

-- Todd Detzel (detzel@jps.net), April 16, 2000.

Aussie sources tell me the market is already heading back up again since this was posted.

-- kritter (kritter@adelphia.net), April 16, 2000.

I agree with Todd and his numbers for the NASDAQ and the Dow. I also believe that we are at the peak of the real estate boom and the cycle for a downward spiral is here. If you live in California, the price for homes are superinflated in areas like the Bay Area. I expect to see foreclosures on the rise as credit begins to tighten even more. A lot of nest eggs dwindled on Friday and people saw their retirement plans go down the drain. Workers who receive stock options as part of their bonus will now opt for cash instead. I also wonder how many companies will be able to stay afloat due to cash flow problems from people cashing in their stocks? Personal savings is at an all time low and personal credit debt at an all time high. The piper has come a calling.

-- Saw the light (sawthelight@sawthelightt.xcom), April 16, 2000.

The markets plunged on Friday because the Consumer Price Index (CPI) was announced and showed the sharpest increase in 5 years. The inflationary increase is due to higher oil and housing prices.

Big money investors enticipated this announcement and started pulling out on Thursday. The smaller guys followed on Friday. Monday the big investors will be reaping those great buys.

Day traders are the ones who took a hit. They're gamblers, not investors. 401k's are invested by mutual funds, real investors. They'll bounce back.

-- (investor@staying.the.course), April 16, 2000.

From Oct. 19th to March 10th, NASDAQ up 84%..... Since March 10th, NAZ is down 34%.... Still leaves heathly profits for those of us who are long term buy and hold!! (or could portend much more to fall, too!!) My guess for a bottom would be 2850 on the Nasdaq. for the same period, the Dow was up 15% and has since fallen 12%, so I don't think we'll be seeing much more lower on the Dow. P/e ratios on the Dow are now below their 10 year average. Gonna be a wild week! ( I hope I have enough dramamine!)

-- Rob (celtic64@inficad.com), April 16, 2000.

kritter -

OZ markets lost about 6% and then recovered a bit. That's the best that can be said.

Link

Following Wall Street's lead, Asian markets fall sharply TOKYO (AP) _ Asian stock markets plummeted Monday, reacting to the record losses on Wall Street last week that had left many investors wondering if its bull market was over.

In the world's second largest economy, Japan's benchmark Nikkei Stock Average fell a staggering 1,793.62 points, or 8.8 percent, to 18,641.06. Dropping far below the key 20,000-point mark, the Nikkei stood at its lowest level since Jan. 12, with high-technology stocks being hit the hardest.

By the end of the morning session, the Nikkei had recovered slightly, rising to 18,683.89 points.

"It's going straight down in line with the movement in New York," said Sachio Ishikawa, a general manager at Chuo Securities in Tokyo. "I expected the market to fall, but I didn't think it would fall quite this much."

However, Japanese Finance Minister Kiichi Miyazawa said he wasn't worried by the Nikkei's woes, saying that signs of Japan's economic recovery remain clear.

"I am not too concerned," Miyazawa said, adding that the stock market's losses "were in line with expectations."

[snip]

In two other closely watched bourses in Asia _ Hong Kong and Singapore _ the situation also was grim.

Prices plunged from the outset in Hong Kong, with the Hang Seng Index off by 1,163.28 points, or 7.2 percent, at 14,979.48 after just 15 minutes of trading.

The big losers included Pacific Century CyberWorks Ltd., the Internet startup run by Richard Li, the son of Hong Kong's top billionaire, Li Ka-shing. After a few minutes of trading, PCCW was down by 17 percent.

"I had no idea this thing could be so bad," said Mark Mobius, an emerging markets fund manager based in Hong Kong with Templeton Franklin Investment Services (Asia) Ltd.

Mobius said he did not foresee as much damage as stocks suffered during the global crash of 1987, but he thinks emerging markets will be hit as hard as bigger markets because "everyone and his brother is announcing an Internet strategy."

In Singapore, the Straits Times Index fell 182.90 points, or 8.35 percent, to 2,006.86, by midday.

"I think we're pretty much in line with what New York is doing. It's all a question of whether or not New York is going to recover," said Raymond Lee, a dealer at Keppel Securities in Singapore.

Other stock markets in the region also dropped sharply, with Australia's All Ordinaries Index falling 178.10 points, or 5.75 percent, to 2,915.90, before improving slightly.

The Korea Composite Stock Price Index did even worse, down 89.35 points, or 11 percent, to 711.54. The Korea Stock Exchange said it was a record fall, in both points and percentage. The Korean index recovered slightly later in the day, but analysts said the bearish trend was expected to continue.

"The tumble was in sync with the crash of Wall Street, and the trend is likely to persist for the time being," said Kim Sung-won, an analyst at Dongwon Securities Co. in Seoul.

The bourses were reacting to Friday's huge losses on financial markets in New York.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average plunged 617.78 points, or 5.7 percent, to 10,305.77, in its biggest single-day point loss ever.

The Nasdaq Composite Index, home to technology stocks whose popularity has evaporated, tumbled 355.49, or 9.7 percent, to 3,321.29. The point drop was its worst ever, surpassing a fall of 349.15 on March 3, and it was the second worst in percentage.

The history-making collapse _ one of the worst weeks in U.S. market history _ shook professional and private investors alike.

The US sneezes, and the rest of the world catches cold.

-- DeeEmBee (macbeth1@pacbell.net), April 17, 2000.

Sorry about that. It's late and we're watching reality hit the equity markets. It is not pretty.

-- DeeEmBee (macbeth1@pacbell.net), April 17, 2000.

You ever notice how the experts always have *reasons* why when the market falls but when it goes up, well, it just goes up?

Never forget friends, it's just a giant auction nothing more and me thinks big MO has just changed teams.

-- Carlos (riffraff@cybertime.net), April 17, 2000.

Oh you bunch of worry warts =)

-- cin (cinloo@aol.com), April 17, 2000.

I have my 401k money in a Very Low risk, (Safe?) investment. Got SPANKED to the tune of 12%!

-- Spanked Sore @ Help me .com (vgd38@hotmail.com), April 17, 2000.

Spanked,

What was the specific investment?

-- J (Y2J@home.comm), April 17, 2000.

Although I think that US equity markets are in a bubble that is bound to burst, I don't look to foreign markets to see where ours is headed. Back when Japan was in its bubble, Asian markets led ours. Today, our markets are leading, and most of the world is following.

My hunch is that volatility will continue at a fever pitch for several more months, especially when bad or unexpected numbers are released, but no consensus will emerge in the US stock markets until we see dropping USA consumption in housing and autos, due to higher interest rates. The Fed will keep raising rates until this happens. Then the bear market will get its legs under it.

-- Brian McLaughlin (brianm@ims.com), April 17, 2000.

Well, it's almost 2PM Eastern, so now we'll get to see just how much margin is getting called today. The margin will either get covered (which is rarely a wise move, but who says folks are being wise lately?) or the account will be sold out and closed from about 2PM to right near closing.

Nazz has swung total of 7% this far today: down 3% at the open (that's individuals, usually), then up 4%, then back to right around break-even of late. Now we see what the pros are doing from here to the close.

"Programs! Get yer programs right here! Can't tell the players without a score card! Programs!"

-- DeeEmBee (macbeth1@pacbell.net), April 17, 2000.

2 pm eastern, Dow bounced up +0.18% and Nasdaq at -0.44%.

As I said, the big boys are reaping the bargains.

-- (investor@staying.the.course), April 17, 2000.

Another paper-thin rally as we head into the final hour. Major indices are up 1-2%, but market internals are lousy --

New York Stock Exchange: 1,055 advancers, 1,963 decliners, 914 million shares. 9 new 52-week highs, 137 new lows.

Nasdaq Stock Market: 1,369 advancers, 2,938 decliners, 1.9 billion shares. 6 new highs, 587 new lows.

Look at the A/D and high-low ratios. Does that look like a broad-based rally in either market to you? *feh*

-- DeeEmBee (macbeth1@pacbell.net), April 17, 2000.

The irrepressible James Cramer over at TheStreet.com has something to say about the action today. On Friday, he started a series of "interviews" with "Buzz Gould", an entirely fictional portfolio manager at a fund that just went from plus 47% to minus 14% in the four weeks since March 10 :

Buzz Is Still Squirming

By James J. Cramer

4/17/00 2:43 PM ET

We checked in with Buzz Gould midday to see how the day was treating him. He only gave us a few seconds of his time.

Cramer: So are things working out as planned, Buzz?

Buzz (Confidence totally regained): Yes, I can't believe I let my guard down like that. We see opportunity everywhere today. We are so happy that the public is in buying the dip. And you know we got a ton of money in too and we are putting it to work in all of our big cap tech names.

Cramer: But how about all of those recent stocks, those new issues? How are they doing?

Buzz: Not so great yet. The day is still young. Once we are through propping up the older names, we will then go in and take up the newer ones. Those old coots who say "You can't buy the dip", we are going to crush those guys. Boy am I glad I didn't cancel that Hamptons place. What was I thinking?

Cramer: So it is just business as usual?

Buzz (Overheard shouting to trader): Take that PMC-Sierra (PMCS:Nasdaq - news - boards) up another 15 points to get the NAV back to even! And walk up that Kana (KANA:Nasdaq - news - boards), I don't care how much it costs!

I'm sorry Jim, what is the question?

Cramer: Never mind.

-- DeeEmBee (macbeth1@pacbell.net), April 17, 2000.

_< /a>

Dow - 10,582
NASDAQ - 3539
S&P 500 - 1401
NYSE - 620
CBOE gold index - 36.32

Aw well, maybe tomorrow it'll tank....keep hoping, doom idiots!

-- Dow Guy (up@nd.up), April 17, 2000.

Moral of the story: day-trading is for the birds (and those who like to get bird droppings on their head.)

-- (investor@staying.the.course), April 17, 2000.