is this the big tanking of the market?greenspun.com : LUSENET : TB2K spinoff uncensored : One Thread
well, the market's plunge is without question. Looks like the novices will soon hit the panic button. If there is no real rebound, this could rival the drop in '29...we shall see. At any rate, many of you have to realize the following. The federal government is heavily in debt....7 trillion or more? There will be no money for a "New Deal" As well, people today are not like before. They will not "mow your lawn" for a meal. They will take it....
just thoughts about the future, if in fact, this is the start....
-- Rick Shade (firstname.lastname@example.org), April 14, 2000
They will not "mow your lawn" for a meal. They will take it....
I take it that you live in LA.
-- Z1X4Y7 (Z1X4Y7@aol.com), April 14, 2000.
no Monday may be worse
-- boo (email@example.com), April 14, 2000.
Nasdaq is toast. On Monday it will be charred toast, below 2500. Dow will survive okay, for the meantime.
-- Hawk (firstname.lastname@example.org), April 14, 2000.
SMITH & BARNEY just said on CNN we hit BOTTOM . Hunting season opens next week , bargain hunting . Abby Cohen on CNBC after the close says Dow will hit 12,500 this year.
-- justin (email@example.com), April 14, 2000.
The insiders will prop things up for a while but I think that a number of palatial homes here and there will start bearing "for sale" signs. Some false plateaus might be gained for a week or two, but that's it. Gee, those of us small folk who closed our mutual funds out last Dec. and bought extree food can sleep "a bit" better. No new 2001 SUV orders for next fall, either...
-- churchorganist (firstname.lastname@example.org), April 14, 2000.
FWIW - I don't see any positive influences in the Nasdaq chart for next week and I anticipate the market to fall even further despite the "Hey, it's no big deal - REALLY!" spin they'll try to add to the equation over the weekend.
-- LunaC (LunaC@LunaC.com), April 15, 2000.
I'm really lousy at short term market predictions so I won't make any. This has been a painful week but there are a lot of painful tims when you're investing in the markets. The one thing I'll say is I was a lot more worried in 1987 when the NYSE was down 22.7% in one day but the markets recovered and we're still here today.
-- Jim Cooke (JJCooke@yahoo.com), April 15, 2000.
Abby Cohen: the Irving Fisher of our day. From "New York Times" Headlines, Fall 1929
Thursday, October 24, 1929, Page 1, Col. 1
PRICES OF STOCKS CRASH IN HEAVY LIQUIDATION, TOTAL DROP OF BILLIONS
PAPER LOSS $4,000,000,000
2,600,000 Shares Sold In The Final Hour In Record Decline
MANY ACCOUNTS WIPED OUT
But No Brokerage House Is In Difficulties, As Margins Have Been Kept High
ORGANIZED BANKING ABSENT
Bankers Confer On Steps To Support Market - Highest Break Is 96 Points
Page 2, Col. 1
SAYS STOCK SLUMP IS ONLY TEMPORARYProfessor Fisher Tells Capital Bankers Market Rise Since War Has Been Justified.
ECONOMIC REASONS CITED
"Public Speculative Mania," He Declares, is Least Important Cause of Price Inflation.
Friday, October 24, 1929, Page 1, Columns 5-8
WORST STOCK CRASH STEMMED BY BANKS;
12,894,650-SHARE DAY SWAMPS MARKET;
LEADERS CONFER, FIND CONDITIONS SOUND
FINANCIERS EASE TENSION LOSSES RECOVERED IN PART Five Wall Street Bankers Hold Two Meetings at Morgan Office Upward Trend Start with 200,000-Share Order for Steel TICKERS LAG FOUR HOURS Thousands of Accounts Wiped Out, With Traders in Dark as to Events on Exchange
Saturday, October 26, 1929, Page 2, Col. 5
CAUTION ADVISED BY STOCK BROKERSLetters to Clients Warn Against Hysterical Selling and Favor Some Buying
TONE IS OPTIMISTIC
Narrow Trading is Predicted for a Time Till the Market Recuperates
Tuesday, October 29, 1929, Page 1, Col. 6
STOCK PRICES SLUMP $14,000,000,000Sixteen Leading Issues Down $2,893,520,108;
IN NATION-WIDE STAMPEDE TO UNLOAD;
BANKERS TO SUPPORT MARKET TODAY
Tel. & Tel. and Steel Among Heaviest Losses
PREMIER ISSUES HARD HIT
Unexpected Torrent of Liquidation Again Rocks Markets
Wednesday, October 30, 1929, Page 1, Columns 6-8
STOCKS COLLAPSE IN 16,410,030-SHARE DAY,240 Issues Lose $15,894,818,894 in Month; Slump in Full Exchange List Vastly Larger
BUT RALLY AT CLOSE CHEERS BROKERS;
BANKERS OPTIMISTIC, TO CONTINUE AID
-- DeeEmBee (email@example.com), April 15, 2000.
A lot depends on why the marked tanked as bad as it did today. Frankly, I was surprised that the PPT let it go as far as it did. The only thing that I can think of is that maybe they just stepped aside from the momentum until it bounces, then they'll intervene again in earnest like they did on April 4. The big question in my mind is did today's plunge result from derivitives starting to implode, or not? At some point a lot of derivative deals are going to start collapsing, and if they do, even the PPT won't be able to stop the carnage. Another question in my mind is whether or not any more big Hedge Funds are having to liquidate now. This might be another cause of the selling going on to day. One thing's for sure, a lot of people got margin calles today, as well as yesterday. I'll bet a lot of "day traders" and other small-time players have gotten wiped out in the last couple of days. Monday will be MOST INTERESTING.
LunaC, your info is most interesting and certainly right on the money. Please keep us informed. I used to be in love with an astrologer, and ended up studying it for a time. Did find some interesting correlations!
-- Flash (firstname.lastname@example.org), April 15, 2000.
Some more babble on the subject. Experts Speak Out
It is clear why economics is not considered a "hard" science. One comment was "a lot of people have lost a lot of money".
-- Z1X4Y7 (Z1X4Y7@aol.com), April 15, 2000.
Watch Monday. A bounce back with broad support will send a whole different message than a continued decline. I too am lousy at short-term predictions, but what the hey -- I'm betting the decline continues, if not at blood-bath rates. The only thing that can soften this trend is the positive feedback loop created by automatic 401k and mutual fund money with managers who see buying opportunities in old economy companies with good track records. Still ... The biggest bull market in history is about to be followed by (one of) the biggest bears. If you're thinking of changing jobs, don't. Last hired, first fired is the rule at most places, and I think we'll see a lot of firing in the next year or so. If you're tied to a lot (or even a little) variable-rate credit-card debt, lock in an interest rate now, if you can. I just got a First Card offer in the mail of four years at 9.9 percent. 18 months from now, that's gonna look darn good, I think.
-- Cash (email@example.com), April 15, 2000.
>>just thoughts about the future, if in fact, this is the start.... <<
If anything, everyday is the start of the future being that time is so fluid. Has anyone bothered to check the historic performance of the Dow since it began?? What was the low in 1929? And where are we today? Enough said! That may be too simplistic as sooo many new investors will probably panic if the weeks a head, so I feel there is more downward pressure to come. THIS is why I am LONG TERM BUY AND HOLD, like 30 years or so. I have my 401k at work plus I dabble a bit with individual stocks, but I have already decided that my stocks are extremely long term buy and holds.... I have paid off all my debts, I don't trade on margin and I have 6 months of cash availible NOW for emergencies. Yes, I sleep well at night! No, am not buying into this market yet as I think we haven't reached bottom. There's a lot of forces at play here, so the next few months are gonna be .... interesting!
-- Rob (firstname.lastname@example.org), April 15, 2000.
Several answers are right, yes the nasdaq is going to around 2200, and yes abbey cohen is right we will be back at 12,000 dow by years end.It's all visible in the market technicals. Also gold and silver will make nice up moves by may-june.The australian dollar is going to move up in a big way as is the gold based swiss franc. The one who said the u.s. guvmint is in deep debt is really dead on track to the tune of 17-20 trillion. Global derivitives are 70+ trillion.
-- rowd (email@example.com), April 15, 2000.
I am glad that you have such a long term horizon. From the peak in 1929, it took until 1954 just to get EVEN. Why people spout the "buy and hold" mantra to justify owning equities that are too expensive is beyond my reasoning.
-- J (Y2J@home.comm), April 15, 2000.
most likely on Monday the decline will continue
-- havemycashstashed (firstname.lastname@example.org), April 15, 2000.
Flash -------- Monday morning Nasdaq will open with Venus (money,values) opposition (difficulty) Uranus (unexpected, unsettling) in the 7th (international partners). Watch the international markets and their effect on U.S. trading. But don't expect to hear the full story until Mercury (communication, news) is opposite Uranus on Thursday. "Unsettling information" is the key concept here with the Sun also squaring Mercury in the 11th (the masses). Joe Public generally doesn't react well to bad news so look for the Little Guys to be getting out of the market.
Tuesday we have Mars (the trigger) in the 2nd (money) squaring natal Sun in the 11th (the masses) and Wednesday Mars will be squaring transiting Uranus in the 11th. LOTS of difficult energy being directed to the 11th house of the masses, hopes, dreams and goals. I expect more selling as folks feel more and more unsettled and uncertain.
Yup, I expect the downtrend to continue next week, although not with the same intensity as we saw last Friday.
Other dates to watch:
April 30 - Saturn (loss) in the 2nd (money) square Sun in the 11th (the masses). Expect another dip around this time. Pessimism abounds.
May 2nd - Enjoy a brief rally as Mars in the 2nd (money) trines (benefits) Pluto (change). This will probably be a shortlived enthusiasm.
May 7 and 8 - Mars in the 2nd (money) opposes Neptune (illusions) in the 8th (debts, shared resources), followed by Neptune retrograde in the 11th. This will be the time that you'll smell the fear in the air as fantasies give way to confusion and doubt. Lots of difficult activity in the money houses.
May 13 - Saturn (loss) in the 2nd (money) squares (difficulty) transiting Uranus (shake-ups) in the 11th (Joe Public) while Jupiter (over-indulgence) in the 2nd (money) square natal sun in the 11th (the masses). Can you say Margin Call?
May 14 - SIX planets (Venus, Jupiter, Saturn, Sun, Mercury and Mars) are all in the natal 2nd house. Money, money, money will be THE focus of this time.
May 18 - 19 Expect lots of volatility as Mars in the 2nd opposes natal Mars and transiting Pluto in the 8th. This may very well be a fiery crash and burn.
May 24 - Uranus goes retrograde. Expect extreme volatility and difficult trading.
After the dust settles, expect a brief rise in the market until June 15th when Mars triggers a square (difficulty) with Pluto destruction). But this slump is shortlived as the influence of Jupiter (expansion) trines (benefits) transiting Pluto (change) on June 26 brings the market back up until July 6 when Mars squares Uranus in the 11th. (explosive!)
Mid July - Jupiter opposite Jupiter - this signals the mid-point of Jupiter's 12 year cycle. The expansion of the past several years has concluded and it's somewhat down-hill from here for the next six years until a new Jupiter cycle resumes.
July 23 - Watch out for this one! Pluto Rx (destruction/crisis) conjuncts Mars (explosive) in the 8th (debts/joint resources). Expect heavy downward movement.
August brings another reminder of what we've seen these past few weeks as Rx Uranus once again visits a conjunction with the Sun in the 11th. Expect the same type of high volatility and loss that we saw on April 4th.
August 25 brings Mars in the 5th (speculation) making its first square (difficulty) to Saturn (loss) after the April 14th bloodbath. Expect another downturn, although not as harsh as previously seen.
Generally speaking, I expect this market to continue a slow and steady decline with some dramatic hits along the way.
For those not familiar with astrology, the influence of Mars will be felt a day or two before and after the dates indicated. The effects of all other slower moving "outer" planets can be felt for a week or so before and after but will be strongest on the dates indicated.
-- LunaC (LunaC@LunaC.com), April 15, 2000.
You damned doomers are all alike. Y2K wasn't TEOTWAWKI, so you latched on to solar flares. That didn't bring everything down, so you latched on to the stock market. What's next - pole reversals?
-- Jeremy Flavin (email@example.com), April 15, 2000.
Loved the above statement. No y2k, so lets assume now, all will be lost.
Save your preps. Take your money out of the bank. Threaten others who come to your home.
Bunch of crap. So the market took a hit, it was overdue, it does not mean it is DONE.
BTW, tonite at 3:30 am the planets will align and the great pumpkin will come out of his patch to insult everybody on the earth, if he does not eat them first.
-- reality checker (firstname.lastname@example.org), April 15, 2000.
joe-six-pack---john doe---regular working stiff---mr. average--- whatever you want to call me---my 401k took some serious hits the last 2 weeks. I gambled with a few thousand, and lost my ass. I waited for some stabilization that never came, hoping to cut some of my loses. I think some more of the working stiffs will look at their portifolio this weekend, and say enough is enough. I am small time when it comes to my 401k, but how long will most other regular folks sit and watch the market tank? I have the gut feeling it has a way to go yet. The smell of fear is very heavy in my opinion, and I don't think the average 401k holder has the stomach to loose a few thousand a day as I have done before saying enough is enough. Monday will certainly tell a lot.
-- Dan Forte (email@example.com), April 16, 2000.
Jeremy and Reality Checker - Why not wait until early September before you make judgements? Let's touch bases then to see who's version of what's to come was closest to the truth. Deal?
-- LunaC (LunaC@LunaC.com), April 16, 2000.
The markets plunged on Friday because the Consumer Price Index (CPI) was announced and showed the sharpest increase in 5 years. The inflationary increase is due to higher oil and housing prices.
Big money investors enticipated this announcement and started pulling out on Thursday. The smaller guys followed on Friday. Monday the big investors will be reaping those great buys.
-- (firstname.lastname@example.org), April 16, 2000.
Big investors (and any smart ones, regardless of size) do not try to catch falling knives. They wait until the knives have hit the floor and are lying there nice and safelike. No clear bottom to this market has been established (takes more than a day or two for that), so most players will remain on the sidelines and far away from flying cutlery.
"Buy the dip" has become "sell the rally". That's how momentum markets work, and Big Mo has definitely switched direction. Now we will see how truly smart many analysts, fund managers, and investors are.
Comment from a longtime value investor a few years back: "I look forward to the day when CNBC is nothing but a test pattern." Stay tuned.
-- DeeEmBee (email@example.com), April 17, 2000.
No stock market crash, and life will continue as we know it.
-- (Ladylogic@...), April 17, 2000.
That seals it. I have to buy more puts.
-- J (Y2J@home.comm), April 17, 2000.
Deal. I do believe at 'some' point things will get ugly. Dont know when and still confused as to what the planets gotta do w/it.?
September? Ok, deal.
-- consumer (firstname.lastname@example.org), April 19, 2000.