Stock Indices in Freefall This Morning : LUSENET : TB2K spinoff uncensored : One Thread

Stock Indices in freefall this morning. What are the "pause" points? How long before the Plunge Protection Team steps back in?

-- Flash (flash@flash.hq), April 14, 2000


Check for tech analysis, support & resistance. Nasdaq will probably go to 3000. DJIA has some support at 10600. My guess is the real drop after that will come after April. The poor buy and hold crowd. I really feel bad for them. No exit plan, most of them, no historical perspective. Check for a good summary of historical perspective or read (read? does anyone read anymore?) "The Bear Book" by Rothchild

-- Greg Donovan (, April 14, 2000.

How about the " I'm not in the stock market I'm in mutual funds" crowd?

They didn't even get kissed first.

-- swampthing (in@the.swamp), April 14, 2000.

TEOTWAWKI begins tonight! Get your guns! Stocks will tank, world wide depression to follow. Unless you are prepped big-time you will be fighting your neighbor for crusts of bread. This will be the "BLACK FRIDAY" that all the world remembers for eternity. This will be the day that "Civilization ended". Roving bands of cut-throats and murderers are going to rape, pillage and burn. 500 hundred years from now in history books this will be known as the beginning of the "Second Dark Age".

You pollies will all be dead by Thanksgiving.


-- THE SEER (, April 14, 2000.

But Seer, what do you think the down side will like?

-- Kelly (, April 14, 2000.

But Seer, what do you think the down side will BE like?

-- Kelly (, April 14, 2000.


Thanks for the info. I agree with you that more is yet to come after April. My guess is that we will continue to see this volatility, with each major "pause" point being lower than before. At some point those average-Joes who are ignorant of history and financial reality and believe that stocks only go up, will panic and start to bail out. What I am seeing is strategic selling by the majors every time the little guys make their "bargain buys". Also it looks like the PPT is in there doing concerted buying at strategic moments, such as after the big opening plunge to try and stem the tide of red ink. The only way to play this market is to do some degree of hedging. If you guess right, you'll make a bundle. Of course, most people don't understand what that is, and some that do don't have the resources or inclinaton. I have been making some money on RYURX and RYAIX recently, but it is difficult to get in and out of them quickly due to the requirement to get orders in before 2:00 PM Eastern time. A lot of the serious action seems to happen after that time, so it's hard to catch the swings at their highs and lows.

-- Flash (flash@flash.hq), April 14, 2000.

11:05, Curbs in. Naz off 30 percent from its high. Dow and S&P dropping hard as well. (or as bad.) Granted, it's early in the day, but looks UUUUUgly.

-- Cash (, April 14, 2000.

The hour between 3 and 4pm will be the most interesting.


-- THE SEER (, April 14, 2000.

And once again, we have the the infamous "PPT," the secret organization responsible for propping up the market so many times in the past year or so. How many times has it been? 15? 20? One wonders what they're doing with all the billions of shares of stock they must have accumulated by now. LOL.

-- (hmm@hmm.hmm), April 14, 2000.

Hmmm, they are going to sell it to investors who get out of the market now, at a low point, at a MUCH higher price.

-- liu (, April 14, 2000.


When their banker is the FED, how much they buy isn't a big problem.

-- Flash (flash@flash.hq), April 14, 2000.

I don't think the PPT can stop the inevitable. They can only slow down the process. The Nasdaq is down 20% this week. It would have been thrilling if it had been all in one day. The only difference between a severe one day drop and a week long one is psychological. It seems less disastrous. Plus it allows alot of the big boys to shift around their assets and minimize their losses. A one day crash would wipe everyone away like a giant wave.


-- THE SEER (, April 14, 2000.

Thanks for some great posts, Flash, Kelly, Seer et al. Seer, maybe the pollies would MAKE good thanksgiving dinner... Flash, I agree about the PPT & the majors selling on strength. Any comment, opinion on the Fed, & the manipulation of the market re the elections? Seer, did you hint the PPT will be at work 3-4 PM? Cereally, I am a former doomer, chastened, glad I was WRONG WRONG WRONG about Y2k (anyone need some canned tuna?) I don't think a doomer mentality is prerequisite to looking at this market & seeing some possible downside. Lot of CEO'S, insiders, fund managers are doing just that. The establishment, if you will.

-- Greg (GregD49@AOL.COM), April 14, 2000.

Meltdown City!

None of this can possibly do much to profit AlBore, so it would seem as tho' this could well be the much discussed and probably pre- planned Fed project to release some of the (hot)air in Surely a "soft landing" is still in the cards, but there's always a risk once the "fire" word is shouted in the gambling arena called Wall St.

For the Mental Midgets who prefer to think the the PPT is in the same realm as the Easter Bunny--Tues. April 4 provided ample evidence even to the PROFESSIONALS on the street - that something was clearly afoot. Of course you can continue to ignore THEIR professional comments -- AT YOUR OWN PERIL!

This sort of bloodletting always brings forth discussions of tangible vs. intangible wealth instruments. I.e. precious metals vs. fancy pieces of paper CLAIMING to represent wealth. The original challenge to demonstrate a SINGLE paper instrument that has maintained its claim to wealth over a historical period of time (no not 20 years, moron) has remained unanswered for obvious reasons. The same gold one holds today could have been mined and 'treasured' THOUSANDS of years ago...that's lasting value. NO paper instrument can equal that.

This is not to say that gold is without fault (insurance, safe dep. rental, transfer costs, etc.) and it CERTAINLY varies in price especially when the market is manipulated as in the early 80's, but it should have a place in almost everyone's portfolio. Don't you find it just a wee bit interesting that the poor in India and several other countries wear GOLD (as wealth) around their necks...NOT PAPER!

Paper assets of all types certainly have their place too, probably even a dominant one for most--at least in good times--such as the last decade or two. Just so long as one realizes that the stock market history in this country includes a 25 year period (1929-1954!) of pretty lousy performance! (If one bought gold or other metals at the height of the manipulated market you'd also still be cryin in your beer!).

This market will almost certainly continue to have it's lousy days, weeks, months and quite well as strong updrafts-- it could even go to DOW 34K! (at least that's what some bulls claim!). Just watch your six by keeping some part of your wealth in assets that don't burn up!

-- Always (, April 14, 2000.

Hey, where have some of you guys been? We've been discussing market action on various threads for weeks now.

The PPT (such as it is) hasn't stepped in recently, but the big funds sure have. They have to pick their battles, though, and it appears that they may have miscalculated. This from

A Case of Premature Propping-Up

By James J. Cramer

4/14/00 11:00 AM ET

Why do they always start so early? What is the point of that lunacy? I see desperate mutual funds trying to prop up their favorite four-letter B2B plays and it sickens me to think that they think they can play this game. Same with the E.piphanies (EPNY:Nasdaq - news - boards) and Business Objects (BOBJ:Nasdaq - news - boards).

I mean, like, give me a break. It always mystifies me why these mutual funds think they can prop up their names so early. Right now these attempts are doomed to fail.

Still holding to our thesis here: We haven't seen the whites of their eyes. Sure we are encouraged by Sun Micro (SUNW:Nasdaq - news - boards), but we are discouraged by Intel (INTC:Nasdaq - news - boards).

We are encouraged by Gateway (GTW:NYSE - news - boards) and we are discouraged by Dell (DELL:Nasdaq - news - boards) -- boxmaker or not!

And we sure wish these mutual funds would keep their powder dry and stop trying to make themselves look right. It is too late for those shenanigans.

If the funds run out of ammo (cash), it's Katie-bar-the-door. Then you will indeed see comments and action from the PPT (Dr. Greenspan, Mr. Summers, et al.), but whether that will do a whole lot of good over the next few days is open to discussion.

-- DeeEmBee (, April 14, 2000.


I don't believe that funds have much "ammo" to play with. Mutual fund cash levels are at historic lows. Cash became a dirty word when the market only went up.

-- J (Y2J@home.comm), April 14, 2000.

That was my sense as well, J, which makes it all the more imperative for them to pick their battles.

The contest begins in earnest in just a few minutes. Bears will work to make this drop stick and bulls will work equally hard to get a rally going from about 2:30 to the close. If the latter can get a Nazz close above the 200dma (daily moving average) of 3500, that will be a victory for them, as it provides some support at that level. If they can get a real rally going and perhaps take the index all the way back up to even, that will seriously hurt the bears (who will then have to do some heavy short-covering.) If, on the other hand, margin calls and other downward pressures keep it below 3500 at the close, the word over the weekend will be to get out of equities, making for an even uglier Monday.

-- DeeEmBee (, April 14, 2000.


It's a buying opportunity....said as falling body passes the fifth floor.

Is this a free fall? Will next week be more of the same? Are the health care and financials at their bottom?

As I type the Dow is down 505 and 517. NASDAQ 295. Now 530 and 301.......

stay tuned in for breaking developments.

-- marketobserver (...@...-ed), April 14, 2000.

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-- MarketWatcher (, April 14, 2000.

Oh! OH! OH

Watching CNBC....some talking heads are stuttering....Ron has a sore throat....

They just said fearhas entered the market. Is this this an imbalance trying to balance again?

I heard the word hypothesis applied to the New Economy....just said market now down 2 Trillion...was up 1.7 trillion last year.

I have stayed out for 2 years but itch to get back in coach?

NASDAQ off 24% for the week. Biggest weekly drop in history. Those buying today on the dip are losers at the moment.

-- market observer (....@..-.ed), April 14, 2000.

I am just wondering and I asked my boss, what is up with the market as they do financial planning.

Boss thinks perhaps lots of sell-offs today because it is almost deadline for taxes.

What do you think?

-- shady (nev@xxx.c), April 14, 2000.

Steady market observer, steady.

It is much better to let the falling knife hit the floor, bounce, and then settle back to the floor before trying to grab it. Trying to do otherwise often leads to nasty cuts and/or puncture wounds.

-- J (Y2J@home.comm), April 14, 2000.

Dow plunged -5.62%, Nasdaq -9.70%, and S&P -5.84%

Can we call this Black Friday yet?

-- Chris (!@#$, April 14, 2000.

What will Monday bring with the margin calls from todays action? Who stepped in at 3:46, when the dow was -717 to keep it from going to - 900 or -1000? It was in a rate of rapid decline at that point.

-- THE SEER (, April 14, 2000.

shady -

Taxes come around every year, so you might refer your boss to market charts for this time last year and any year prior. To say that this sort of selloff is tax-generated is simply incorrect. April is normally not exactly a banner month for stocks, but not like this. Never, ever like this. This is more fundamental. Market got way over-valued, people got way over-extended, and the downside momentum is now huge.

-- DeeEmBee (, April 14, 2000.

I'm not following your Boss's reasoning. Since the tax deadline of April 15, 2000 applies to those taxpayers whose last tax year ended on 12/31/99, one would have expected those taxpayers' tax motivated stock trades to have occurred either in late 1999 or in early 2000. Perhaps your Boss has in mind the role of 4/15/00 as a change in fiscal year for some enterprises, but it's unclear from the information given.

-- David L (, April 14, 2000.

Reference our earlier discussion re cash as ammo: they ran out, pure and simple, and their position was overrun as a result.


No Bounce, Lots of Pain

By James J. Cramer

4/14/00 4:19 PM ET

Whew! Maybe if they'd let it trade to 4:15 p.m. we could have gotten to some nifty place where people could feel better. This wasn't it. It never really bounced.

Did the bear let it bounce to 3200 on the NDX just to get a few more bulls into the den? I don't know. But this was one of those sessions that people will be talking about for an awfully long time.

When we checked around with others this afternoon we were astounded that nobody had any more money to buy. We hear the commentators talk about people on the sidelines with cash. We didn't see many of them.

After moves like this we usually find that a third of the stocks have bottomed already, another third still has some bottoming to do and the other third ain't ever coming back. We are going to take our cue from what didn't do that badly in the last half hour. Take some sorting, but it is a logical place to begin.

Rough day. My congratulations to those who stuck it out and my condolences to those who couldn't.

I suspect we will hear news stories soon of despair (and worse) as those who "bet the house" now find that it's all gone. Sad is not the word...

-- DeeEmBee (, April 14, 2000.

Dee, sad indeed. Thinking of all those who jumped in the day-trading wagon as newbies this year. Afraid we're going to hear some very sad stories.

-- Chris (!@#$, April 14, 2000.

Wonderful,Prices of IOUs are coming down,good for the Consumer,bad for the "investing"Moron.The Leeches are busy hosing down the Public.If You want to see what Type of Character operates on Wall Street,just look at the Floor the Slobs are running around on,the next Time the Network Gasbag reports directly from the "Floor".They are standing knee deep in their own Trash.This Operation needs to be SHUT DOWN,before all of us end up in the Poor House,these Thieves are stealing us blind,every You buy something or require Medical or other Services,these Criminals are getting part of your hard earned Money.

-- Not Conned (Wake@up.Man), April 14, 2000.

glad i'm poor

-- wasted (, April 14, 2000.

Calling "THE SEER"


Now that we've got your slant on New York City, how about the rest of the country?

-- Not Whistlin' Dixie (, April 14, 2000.

Not Conned,

I truly hope that you are being sarcastic. Otherwise, your rant would be almost exactly like the bumper sticker that I saw while on vacation. It said, "Workers create all wealth". Which would have been hilarious except that the driver of the car probably believed that it was true.

-- J (Y2J@home.comm), April 14, 2000.

Reference that "tax-related selling" idea - I heard it on a radio call-in show this afternoon as well. The financial guy hosting the show mentioned it, but I have to say that his voice lacked conviction. It's as if these folks are grasping at straws, trying to come up with some way to explain away this massive correction. Frankly, chalking up any significant part of today's carnage to something as mundane as needing cash to pay taxes is a bit weak.

That same "stock talk" host also trotted out the idea of the "Greenspan put" to help set listeners' minds at ease. He didn't use that term, but that's what it is: the belief that Dr. Greenspan will jump in and flood the markets with liquidity and rescue everyone from this revaluation of equities, thus establishing an automatic "put" for investors. I guess this particular host hasn't been listening very closely to any of Dr. G's recent speeches, in which he has stated quite clearly that the Fed does not watch or respond to changes in stock prices. Just for emphasis, Dr. G restated that position today during the afternoon debacle, which I'm sure did wonders for some trader's psyches. First he allows funds to flood into the markets, fueling a huge speculative run-up, then he smacks the markets upside the head as they're heading downwards. Whatta guy!

Note: if the equity markets are actually going to return to using more traditional valuation methods, tech stocks still have a ways to drop, even after this week's steep declines. Heck, the Nazz still has about 2% more to drop before it's even officially deemed to have crashed. That'll be sometime early Monday, I expect.

-- DeeEmBee (, April 15, 2000.

Dee, I caught some of Greenspan's speech on my way out the door yesterday afternoon. Especially liked the part where he kept repeating the need to keep some of your portfolio in cash/bonds/t-bills as protection against panics (a word he used repeatedly, I noted). Does he teach courses in obscure jargonspeak? If he doesn't, he should. The station showed the Naz and Dow levels in a box as he spoke, and there was no joy in Mudville at his words, I must say. I left before the end, but I think the day's final results showed the impact of his statement. I'm not looking for any relief Monday. Didn't the Crash of 87 follow a similar pattern, with a weekend break in between the really bad days?

-- Cash (, April 15, 2000.

Cash - The Crash of 1987 (October 19th, aka "Black Monday") came as the finale of a series of volatile days. The market lost almost 23% of its value in one day and lost . It then recorded two record-high gains on October 20 and October 22. Here's a table courtesy of a clever lad at the University of Melbourne:

The Dow Jones Industrial Index

Date (Year 1987) Close Change %
October 5 2640.18 -0.81 -0.03
October 6 2548.63 -91.55 -3.47
October 7 2551.08 +2.45 +0.10
October 8 2516.64 -34.44 -1.35
October 9 2482.21 -34.43 -1.37
October 12 2471.44 -10.77 -0.43
October 13 2508.16 +36.72 +1.49
October 14 2412.70 -95.46 -3.81
October 15 2355.09 -57.61 -2.39
October 16 2246.74 -108.35 -4.60
October 19 1738.41 -508.32 -22.62
October 20 1841.01 +102.27 +5.88
October 21 2027.85 +186.84 +10.15
October 22 1950.43 -77.42 -3.82
October 23 1950.76 +0.33 +0.02
  When all was said and done, however, the "five-year bull" was dead and it took another 2 years for the market to recover completely. Unfortunately, this current bubble was much bigger than 1987's, so I don't look for a Monday bounce. In fact, I think a lot of folks will decide this weekend that most of those sky-high P/Es aren't so nifty anymore and will seriously look for the exits. Just MHO.

-- DeeEmBee (, April 15, 2000.

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