Gas prices won't hurt Montana tourism

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Gas prices won't hurt tourism By LORNA THACKERAY Of The Gazette Staff

Gas prices hovering between $1.60 and $1.70 a gallon probably won't deter most of the millions of tourists expected to drive to or through Montana this summer, state and industry experts said this week.

"People have already made their plans," Kim McMahon, a research associate with the University of Montana's Institute for Tourism and Recreation Research, said. "They are coming. You just might hear a little more griping."

Renee Stoll, executive director of Missouri River Country, the Montana tourism region that includes Northeastern Montana, agrees. Visitors probably won't change their plans. But she worries a little that the gas prices will be intimidating enough to keep them glued to Highway 2.

"Gas prices might eliminate a few side trips," she said. "If they are on their way to Glacier, they might decide not to make a side trip to Plentywood."

That means they will be less likely to spend an extra night at a hotel in Wolf Point or Glasgow, or to drop a few dollars at a restaurant in one of the small towns that populate the state's northern tier.

Kierston Branstetter, executive director of Custer Country, the tourism region that covers Southeastern Montana, predicts some effect, but isn't sure how much.

"In our region, where people have to drive long distances, we are expecting somewhat of a decline," she said.

Where does your money for a gallon of gas go? Click above to find out.

Overall, however, Montanans who work in the state's second largest industry are convinced that sky-high gas prices won't do any serious damage - at least this year. The dynamics could change considerably if prices go higher. That could alter vacation plans for 2001 and beyond, McMahon said.

Gas prices around Billings Wednesday for regular self-serve unleaded were about $1.60 a gallon. According to the most recent survey by the American Automobile Association, gas in Montana was about a cent higher than the national average on March 15. Gas in Wyoming was about a cent lower. Charity Watt Levis, spokesman for AAA MountainWest office in Helena, said AAA expects gas prices to fall 11 to 18 cents but not until late summer.

Last year, 9.46 million nonresidents visited Montana - up 2 percent from 1998. ITRR's research projected another 2 percent growth in 2000. McMahon said she doesn't expect gas prices to derail that forecast.

Matthew Cohn, director of Travel Montana, the state's tourism promotion agency, said inquires to his office and responses to state advertising have remained stable.

"Through the end of March, we had 25,809 phone calls," he said. "Of those, only five mentioned gas prices."

According to Cohn, the average visitor to Montana travels 2,500 miles round trip. Figuring that a typical automobile gets 15 miles a gallon and the cost of gas is 40 cents a gallon higher this year than in 1999, visitors this year will spend about $60 more filling their tanks.

"I don't think $60 is going to stop people from traveling," he said. "We're not overly concerned."

At KOA Inc., which has its corporate offices in Billings, Director of Communications Michael J. Smith is downright optimistic. The number of recreation vehicles, many of which find their way to KOA campgrounds, continues to grow and gas prices aren't something that keeps them off the road, he said.

"We've just had a research study which showed their travel plans won't be affected," he said. "We really didn't expect it to go the other way."

Smith said the KOA study included focus groups in three major U.S. markets. Two-thirds of those surveyed said that gas prices would not affect their travel plans. Only 5 percent said gas prices would prevent them from traveling, he said.

"RV owners have a strong attachment to their vehicles and incorporate them into their lifestyles," he said. "They know that they're an excellent value overall."

John Brewer of the Billings Area Chamber of Commerce doesn't believe that Billings will suffer much from higher gas prices.

"I do, however, think that this increase will trickle down to goods and services, and the increase of fueling vehicles throughout the year could leave people with weaker discretionary income," he said. "This could affect travel in the long run."

He said other factors - including an ongoing national trend toward shorter, more frequent vacations - would probably have more effect on Montana's travel industry.

"This may nudge that trend, and we may see greater visitation numbers from Northern Wyoming, western North and South Dakota and Montana," he said. "These areas see Billings as a hub for shopping and entertainment."

Research has shown that Washington state supplies the most nonresident visitors to Montana - about 13 percent of the total. California is second with 9 percent. Idaho comes in at No. 3 with 6 percent, and Colorado, foreign countries other than Canada, and Wyoming, each represent about 5 percent of out-of-state visitors.

Brewer said Billings is experiencing record airline traffic as well as strong hotel occupancy and visitation numbers. The convention business, the chamber's primary focus, is thriving and won't feel the pain of higher gas prices.

"Conventions and meetings booked far in advance also indicate that tourism will remain, at the minimum, stable, and at best could experience the traditional 2 to 5 percent growth," he said.

Neil Mangum, superintendent at Little Bighorn Battlefield National Monument, one of Southeastern Montana's primary tourist attractions, doesn't believe that he is seeing any fallout from gas prices. Visitor numbers were down 1.3 percent in March, but overall for 2000, the numbers are running 4.8 percent above last year.

http://www.billingsgazette.com/region/20000406_r2gas.html



-- Martin Thompson (mthom1927@aol.com), April 06, 2000


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