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[ Petroleum Markets ] Author Comment lynnie45 Global user (3/10/00 5:20:16 pm) Reply Do you expect gasoline shortages this summer-long lines? -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Hi...I thought somebody here might know more about this than I do. I was not driving a car in the early 70's, but remember the 2 hour lines and the odd/even rationing different days in Pennsylvania. Given all the negative news about supply and refineries, is that likely to happen again? We are considering some vacation ideas for the summer, and are not even sure what getting gasoline on (or off) the turnpike will be like. I am not really interested in high price predictions, I am interested in potential problems getting gas at ANY price. Thanks for any advice, or comparative statistics with the early 70's.

pliney the younger Unregistered User (3/10/00 7:41:26 pm) Reply shortages possible, price the variant -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Having lived through rationing of all kinds, it can be said that yes, there is a possibility of shortages. These will be self limiting though.

Postulate that a regional refinery has problems, price rises as supply falls locally. This causes product to float in from the outside edges of the region affected. Computer models of the effect show a mottling across the country replicating self corrected, self organizing systems. There can be 'holes' where product will not reach. These 'should' be concentrated in more rural, less demand areas.

There is a caveat though. This system is fragile and if there are multiple regions having problems in any contiguous area, then larger 'rips' appear which may include urban areas. However, the actual corridors used for transport are likely to have sufficient fuel.

So to plan. Locate the refineries and see which roads are likely candidates to be used for most of their transport. Go where those roads take you.

STARDUSTER Global user (3/10/00 9:07:40 pm) Reply Re: shortages possible, price the variant -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- During the last two gas shortages there was fuel available with a little extra hasle to aquire it. In the prior shortages the administration put into place price controls that limited retailers to a maximum profit on any type of fuel of around 15 cents a gallon and cut their supply in half.This made things much worse and caused retail outlets to sell out in the first two hours of a day and then go home to wory about how to make the rent. If the price controls had not been in effect the price would have been around twenty cents higher and you could buy gass any time that you wanted to. At the present time these controls have been repealed. During that time those who had been loyal customers of a outlet where the dealer knew there name so to speak did not have a problem. We opened up at 4 to 5 am for regular comercial customers and kept the lites off while they filled up then opened up between 7 and 9 to sell out the rest of the days allotment to the public. During these shortages I had time to travel cross country and had only minor problems geting fuel never any thing that asking politely or a nice tip would not take care of. While those demanding people with you owe me attitudes found it a problem. My people would even drop off 5 gallon cans to older customers that did not want to deal with the line madness. By the way if you see them mention price controls or profiteering expect it to get a lot worse soon the free market system does not work instantly but it works much beter than artificial control.

FiganPepper Global user (3/10/00 9:27:49 pm) Reply Gasoline shortages.... -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Here's another alternative - stock up now and use later. Remember buying those gas cans during the y2k prep? Checked at Walmart the other day, and they're WAY in the back of the store. No one's buying them now. Y2k is "past." Buy some now, and use later when you go on vacation. As long as there is sufficient ventilation, the smell won't bother you :-) "Stockpile now, use later." Enjoy your vacation!

STARDUSTER Global user (3/10/00 10:00:17 pm) Reply Re: Gasoline shortages.... -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- I am more concerned about the trickle-down affect on other markets and products. So far the media and markets are totally ignoring the effect of current energy prices on the rest of the economy. All energy should be soon affected including electricity and food costs as well as interest rates and stocks. The stock people may have seen a glimmer of insite this week but the others are still blisfully ignorant and counting on the politicians to (do somthing).

Lindasue Unregistered User (3/12/00 3:03:30 am) Reply Do you expect gasoline shortages this sumer-long -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- I think this depends on the price of gasoline. I think $2.00 a gallon is a psycological barrier. If and when the price of gas reaches or exceeds $2.00 a gallon, many consumers will try to conserve as much as possible. They may take vacations, but modify their plans and driving less miles. This might impact vacation resorts that depend on summer vacationeers. Remember that the cost of all goods and services will be impacted by higher gas prices. It will cost more to transport goods, and that cost will be passed on to the consumer. With everything costing more, there will be less vacation dollars to spend. If you look at the big picture, the cost of gasloine will have an impact on every aspect of our lives.

Cael Unregistered User (3/13/00 10:37:25 am) Reply Procter & Gamble plummet -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- excerpted from Financial Post Wed March 8, 2000 print version

"Procter & Gamble stock plummets on profit warning: Consumer products giant cites rising oil, pulp and paper costs"

"Mr. Jager [CEO of P&G] blamed the shortfall on rising pulp costs, competition in Latin America and higher-than-expected manufacturing expenses in Europe. Oil prices have reached nine-year highs."

How many more businesses are feeling the pinch or should I say the squeeze? Oil is needed in all manufacturing sectors in large amounts. Lubricating fluid is absolutely necessary to keep the machinery running. As well, sectors like the steel industry require large amounts to produce steel which can be used by so many other industries including the automobile manufacturing companies and all their jobbers.

As the petroleum shortages increase, all industries will feel the effects - even those we don't normally think of as being dependent on oil.

Cael at Instant Knowledge: News. Reviews. Instantly. me.istar.ca/~cael/indexnews1.htm

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Answers

Everyone in Washington has learned from the mistakes of the 70's. There will be no price controls. Everyone now knows that the free market works better than price controls in allocating consumer goods like gas.

And with no price controls, there will be no shortages.

Besides, we now know that there was no real gas shortage in the 70's. People were waiting in line two hours to top off their tanks - all the gas was being hoarded inside the gas tanks, which averaged 2/3 full instead of 1/3 full.

-- kermit (colourmegreen@hotmail.com), March 15, 2000.

And what is this thread supposed to tell us? Everyone is anonymous and there are some names I recognize from the "doomer" side of the old TB2000. Is there some reason why we should give this more credence than, say, a bunch of folks talking about gas down at the 7- 11?

-- Jim Cooke (JJCooke@yahoo.com), March 15, 2000.