High Oil Prices May Hurt US Economy By JOHN NOLAN, Associated Press Writer

CINCINNATI (AP) -- Rising oil prices may have left their mark at the gas pump and on airline ticket prices, but their climb has yet to ripple through the U.S. economy.

However, analysts say, if oil prices stay high for months, the impact could grow as consumers pay more for basic goods.

''The money spent filling up at the gas tank is money you can't spend at the mall,'' said David Wyss, chief economist for Standard & Poor's DRI in Lexington, Mass. ''We'll start to see that later this year. It takes people a little while to adjust their habits.''

Word this week from Procter & Gamble Co. that its profits are suffering due partly to increased prices of raw materials is a good gauge that the rise's impact is widening.

The maker of well-known consumer brands such as Crest toothpaste, Pampers diapers and Tide detergent said Tuesday it will earn less than expected in the next quarter -- in part because prices are rising for the petroleum-based materials it needs for manufacturing.

Wall Street punished the company harshly, causing its stock to fall from $87.43} on Monday to $53.37{ late Friday.

Other consumer products companies such as Colgate-Palmolive Co. and Kimberly-Clark Corp. also saw their stocks suffer, although those firms took pains to tell investors their profit picture hasn't changed.

These companies use petrochemical-based products a number of ways, from their plastic bottles to their detergents. They must also pay higher prices for fuel for the trucks that deliver their goods.

Despite high gas prices, the auto industry has yet to suffer. Sales of light trucks increased by more than 10 percent from January to February, for instance. Still, there are some signs of trouble.

Higher fuel costs for transporting products prompted Ford Motor Co. on Monday to raise delivery charges for vehicles by $25. General Motors Corp. is considering raising its destination charge for shipment of products.

Shipper FedEx Corp. said last week it would increase the 3 percent surcharge it began last month to 4 percent.

And on Friday, Continental Airlines attempted to impose a new fare increase of up to $40 per round trip, blaming the rising cost of fuel. The airline led the industry in a $20 boost in January, but had to back off on a second increase of $30 two weeks ago after other airlines wouldn't follow.

So far, economists say, oil prices haven't spurred significantly higher overall inflation because the country is now less oil-dependent.

In 1981, the U.S. oil bill was about 6.5 percent of the gross domestic product. Today, it is about 2 percent.

That's partly because of conservation and also because inflation-adjusted oil prices have increased slower than other consumer prices.

Meanwhile, P&G's chairman Durk Jager spent the better part of the week reassuring major investors that the company will keep on its long-term program of increasing sales and getting new products to market faster.

''The stock will ultimately come back. We hope it will be pretty quickly, to restore investors' confidence,'' Jager said Thursday.

And demand won't slacken, said company spokeswoman Linda Ulrey.

''People are still going to need diapers and toothpaste and toilet paper,'' she said.

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-- Martin Thompson (mthom1927@aol.com), March 11, 2000